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8096

擎亞 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 擎亞 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 16Quality 69Growth 95Momentum 94Chips 77

Is 擎亞 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 42th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 10.2%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 87th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 154.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.74
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 5,319 lots
  • sellers have 6,848 lots left, ~657 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +188% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 5,319 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-信義 peaked at 5,590 lots, has sold 54%, 2,599 left, ~19 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +23.95pp, mid holders +11, retail -20.91pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -906 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利美林新加坡商瑞銀富邦-南港兆豐證券兆豐-埔墘
Distributing
凱基-信義凱基-台北富邦證券摩根大通永豐金-敦南元大證券
Desks
own scale
合庫-台南富邦-陽明國泰-敦南國泰-桃園
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +5,319
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +4,208
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +4,099
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-南港 +2,631
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 兆豐證券 +2,487
    sold 2%
  • 兆豐-埔墘 +2,137
    sold 16%

Distributing

  • 凱基-信義 2,599 left
    sold 54%· ~19 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 2,223 left
    sold 56%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 2,552 left
    sold 46%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 3,210 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-敦南 1,073 left
    sold 66%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 1,468 left
    sold 53%· ~29 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 合庫-台南 -939
    unclassified
  • 富邦-陽明 -800
    unclassified
  • 國泰-敦南 -733
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 國泰-桃園 -647
    unclassified
Still selling 6,848 lots ~657 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +9,739 absorbed / -4,756 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-15)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 30, Median -2.44%, Excess -0.85%, Beat mkt rate 50%；60-day: Win 44.8%, Sample 29, Median -4.32%, Excess +6.01%, Beat mkt rate 44.8%；120-day: Win 50%, Sample 28, Median -2.94%, Excess +12%, Beat mkt rate 46.4%

120 days after: historical avg +16.35%

20-day +1.2%
60-day +10.84%
120-day +16.35%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
44.8%
50%
Sample
30
29
28
Median
-2.44%
-4.32%
-2.94%
Excess
-0.85%
+6.01%
+12%
Beat mkt rate
50%
44.8%
46.4%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.35%, beat the market by 12 pts; win rate 50%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 154.5%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

107 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56%, Sample 84, Median +1.96%, Excess +3.57%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%；60-day: Win 60.2%, Sample 83, Median +5.03%, Excess +6.82%, Beat mkt rate 57.8%；120-day: Win 56.6%, Sample 83, Median +9.47%, Excess +12.36%, Beat mkt rate 55.4%

120 days after: historical avg +18.25%

20-day +4.55%
60-day +10.01%
120-day +18.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56%
60.2%
56.6%
Sample
84
83
83
Median
+1.96%
+5.03%
+9.47%
Excess
+3.57%
+6.82%
+12.36%
Beat mkt rate
58.3%
57.8%
55.4%

Over 83 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 18.25%, beat the market by 12.36 pts; win rate 56.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 211+144.7% +205.8% 76.8% +97%
20-40 430+69.1% -4.8% 34.7% +39%
40-60 418+15.3% +9.3% 78.2% -13.1%
60-80 282+5.1% +0.6% 50.4% -6.5%
80-100 You are here634+17.8% -4.4% 42.7% -2.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 87.72, at the 88.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+34.6%
Win rate 24.7% Excess +18.4%
158d
+6.8%
Win rate 59.2% Excess -9.9%
358d
Now
+9.2%
Win rate 39.6% Excess +1.1%
470d
60-day momentum down
+31.8%
Win rate 48.5% Excess +16.1%
431d
+19.2%
Win rate 75.4% Excess +4.8%
285d
+29.5%
Win rate 54.7% Excess +17.8%
393d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 470 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.2%, win rate 39.6%, beat the market by 1.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

71 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.41%, win rate 38.6%, beating the market by -3.78 pts on average.

What does 擎亞 do? Company profile

電子通路業 上櫃

Overview

擎亞電子股份有限公司為台灣上櫃普通股，股票代號8096，產業別為電子通路業。公司成立於1997年11月21日，2004年7月15日上櫃，總部位於台北市南港區園區街3之2號13樓；董事長為李熙俊，總經理為申東洙，發言人為陳鴻義。公開資料顯示實收資本額為新台幣1,493,430,660元，已發行普通股149,343,066股。114年股東常會年報揭露之主要股東基準日為2025年3月25日，前十大股東包括中國信託商業銀行受託保管必勝益控股股份有限公司投資專戶18,237,050股、持股12.21%，韓商COASIA CORPORATION 12,001,389股、持股8.04%，黃敏聰2,448,000股、持股1.64%，以及張凱菁、簡啓銘、花旗託管柏克萊資本SBL/PB投資專戶、廖學邦、王信民、劉榮煌、程元邦等。員工規模方面，113年度年報揭露2025年3月31日員工合計108人，包含經理人10人、研發人員0人、業務行銷人員50人、行政管理人員48人；擎亞本身為電子通路商，非製造業且沒有工廠，主要營運型態為電子零組件代理、產品導入、技術支援、晶圓代工與系統整合服務。

Business

擎亞核心定位為三星體系在台灣與大中華區重要電子零組件通路與IC設計服務合作夥伴，主要向Samsung相關公司採購Wafer、System LSI、AP、CIS、Memory、AMOLED/OLED等關鍵零組件，再銷售給電子資訊、網路通訊、消費性電子、伺服器、車用與NB等製造客戶。主要產品包括：1. AMOLED/OLED顯示器與NB用面板，應用於智慧手機、筆電、平板、便攜顯示器、VR、穿戴與車載顯示；2. System LSI，包括Exynos行動處理器、CIS影像感測器、DDI、PMIC、Security IC等；3. Memory，包括HBM、伺服器記憶體、PC/NB與手機記憶體、車用記憶體、NAND與SSD相關產品；4. Foundry，配合三星晶圓代工，服務fabless客戶與後端IC設計服務。2024年度營收結構為行動通訊裝置零組件收入27,691,462仟元、占98.04%，其他產品554,916仟元、占1.96%，合併營收28,246,400仟元。2025年度年報入口揭露產品組合已明顯轉型：行動通訊產品之關鍵零組件13,837,382仟元、占39.88%；伺服器記憶體11,889,795仟元、占34.27%；薄膜電晶體液晶顯示器/SDC相關產品5,392,840仟元、占15.54%；車用記憶體2,350,884仟元、占6.78%；晶圓Foundry 486,640仟元、占1.40%；其他738,069仟元、占2.13%。2025年度合併營收約346.95億元，年增約22.8%，毛利約12.57億元，毛利率約3.62%，歸屬母公司淨利約1.32億元，EPS約0.89元。商業模式本質為低毛利、高週轉、高資金需求的電子通路與解決方案服務，價值來自原廠代理權、客戶需求掌握、供貨協調、工程支援、信用與庫存管理，以及協助客戶縮短產品導入時程。年報揭露主要客戶因契約以客戶甲、乙、丙等代號揭露，2024年前二大客戶占銷貨比重分別約16.17%與13.63%，客戶集中度與應收帳款控管為重要營運議題。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為成長動能與風險兩面。成長動能方面，擎亞已由傳統手機CIS、AMOLED與行動通訊零組件通路，逐步轉向AI伺服器、資料中心、HBM/伺服器記憶體、車用記憶體與NB用OLED面板。公司2024年年報指出2025年營運方針著重HBM、CIS、AMOLED三大方向，並認為AI與HPC推動HBM需求，HBM3E將成為主流；2025年年度揭露則顯示伺服器記憶體營收已由前一年度約42.68億元提升至118.89億元，車用記憶體由約1.68億元提升至23.50億元，證明轉型已有實際營收貢獻。2026年展望，公司營運重點轉為台灣地區聚焦AI與伺服器記憶體、資料中心內建記憶體需求及NB用OLED面板，中國地區聚焦車載記憶體與手機CIS，其中NB用OLED面板2025年已達約53.92億元營收，後續可望擴大客戶群。新聞報導亦指出擎亞2026年初傳出取得台灣重量級晶圓代工廠資料中心用DRAM與SSD等記憶體大單，若屬實，將有助彌補部分HBM訂單因美國出口管制受限的缺口，但此屬媒體報導與市場消息，需以公司公告與後續營收驗證。中長期至2028年，AI伺服器、資料中心、HPC、邊緣AI、AI PC/NB、新能源車與智慧駕駛將提高DRAM、HBM、NAND、SSD、LPDDR、UFS及車用記憶體需求，擎亞若能維持三星供貨關係並擴大台灣AI供應鏈客戶，營收結構有機會持續朝伺服器與車用記憶體傾斜。主要風險包括：1. 供應商高度集中於Samsung體系，上海三星與台灣三星2024年合計占進貨比重逾七成，若代理權、配貨、價格或產品競爭力變動，營運影響大；2. 通路商毛利率偏低，2024年毛利率約2.89%、2025年約3.62%，營收放大不一定等於獲利等比例成長；3. HBM與高階記憶體受美國出口管制、中美科技戰與客戶區域配置影響，合規、客戶終端用途與產品降規封裝要求會左右出貨；4. CIS在中國5000萬畫素以下市場面臨紅色供應鏈技術提升與價格競爭，公司已預期部分中國CIS訂單下滑並加強信用控管；5. 大型客戶與大單具有一次性或專案型特徵，若2026至2028年資料中心建置需求遞延、記憶體價格反轉或庫存循環轉弱，營收波動可能放大；6. 通路商需要大量營運資金，利率、匯率、庫存跌價、應收帳款逾期與客戶信用風險均需追蹤。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Samsung Electronics Co., Ltd. 韓國上市公司；擎亞主要供應商與長期合作夥伴，供應CPU/AP、CIS、Memory、HBM、Wafer、System LSI、Foundry相關產品。
  • Samsung Display Co., Ltd. 三星集團未上市顯示器公司；供應AMOLED/OLED與SDC相關面板產品，應用於手機、NB、平板、穿戴與車載顯示。
  • 上海三星 三星中國相關供應實體；2024年年報揭露為主要供應商，進貨13,405,419仟元，占進貨淨額46.85%，屬實質關係人。
  • 台灣三星 三星台灣相關供應實體，未上市；2024年年報揭露為主要供應商，進貨7,578,786仟元，占進貨淨額26.49%，屬實質關係人。
Downstream
  • 客戶甲（年報代號） 年報因契約以代號揭露；2024年銷貨4,568,304仟元，占銷貨淨額16.17%，與發行人無關係，實際公司名稱未公開。
  • 客戶乙（年報代號） 年報因契約以代號揭露；2024年銷貨3,848,810仟元，占銷貨淨額13.63%，與發行人無關係，實際公司名稱未公開。
  • 華碩 2357 台股上市公司；年報提及擎亞NB面板出貨已漸趨穩定並持續成長，屬AMOLED/OLED面板下游應用客戶之一。
  • 宏碁 2353 台股上市公司；年報提及2024年成功擴大宏碁NB面板出貨，並預期2025年放量，屬NB OLED面板下游客戶之一。
  • 微星 2377 台股上市公司；年報提及後續將依循華碩及宏碁模式開拓微星等NB客戶，屬潛在下游客戶。
  • 技嘉 2376 台股上市公司；年報提及後續將開拓技嘉等NB客戶，屬潛在下游客戶。
  • 惠普 美國上市公司HP Inc.；年報提及後續將開拓惠普等NB客戶，屬潛在下游客戶。
  • 國內電子資訊、網路通信與消費性電子產品製造商 年報描述之客戶群；擎亞銷售行動裝置、伺服器、車用、NB與消費性電子所需零組件，實際客戶多因契約未揭露。
  • 台灣重量級晶圓代工廠（媒體報導） 2026年媒體報導稱擎亞取得台系晶圓代工大廠資料中心用記憶體大單，但公司與客戶名稱未由正式公告確認，故不填具體股票代號。

Competitors

  • 大聯大 3702 台股上市電子通路龍頭，半導體與電子零組件代理規模大，與擎亞在IC通路、記憶體與系統客戶服務上具廣義競爭關係。
  • 文曄 3036 台股上市半導體通路商，收購Future Electronics後全球布局擴大，與擎亞同屬電子通路與AI/資料中心供應鏈受惠族群。
  • 至上 8112 台股上市電子通路商，市場常將其與擎亞並列為記憶體與三星相關通路概念股；產品線與客戶結構存在部分競爭。
  • 增你強 3028 台股上市電子零組件通路商，代理半導體與電子零組件，與擎亞在通路服務、客戶資金與庫存管理能力上競爭。
  • 益登 3048 台股上市IC通路商，代理多家國際半導體原廠產品，與擎亞同屬IC與電子零組件通路競爭族群。
  • 日電貿 3090 台股上市電子通路商，主要偏被動元件與電子零組件代理，與擎亞在電子通路族群資金與部分客戶服務上具競爭關係。
  • 全科 3209 台股上櫃通訊與電子零組件通路商，與擎亞在通訊、電子零組件代理與系統客戶服務方面有廣義競爭。
  • 敦吉 2459 台股上市電子通路與檢測服務公司，與擎亞同被歸類於電子通路相關族群，但產品組合與代理線不完全相同。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.