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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8410 森田. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8410
8410
quality needs a look, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 森田 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 28th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 14th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 48th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.4% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -16% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 合庫證券 has accumulated 115 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-站前 peaked at 44 lots, has sold 86%, 6 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.55pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 合庫證券 +115
- 元大-彰化民生 +75
- 國票證券 +68
- 新光 +67
- 合庫-自強 +55
- 元大-花蓮 +49
Distributing
- 凱基-站前 6 left
- 合庫-台南 13 left
- 兆豐-嘉義 8 left
- 凱基-台北 3 left
- 第一金-高雄 3 left
- 元大-善化 8 left
Desks
- 台灣企銀-桃園 -368
- 華南永昌-桃園 -289
- 玉山證券 -251
- 兆豐-來福 -114
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 670 | -5% | -9% | 37.5% | -15.5% |
| 20-40 | 511 | +12.9% | -10.1% | 43.8% | -7% |
| 40-60 You are here | 513 | -2.9% | -17.5% | 34.5% | -15.9% |
| 60-80 | 496 | +9.1% | +5.6% | 54.2% | -11.3% |
| 80-100 | 513 | +67.2% | +57% | 91.6% | +43.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 12.05, at the 47.6th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 249 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 11.3%, win rate 48.6%, lagged the market by 6.4%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.05%, win rate 42.1%, beating the market by -1.12 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
55 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.8%, win rate 61.2%, beating the market by +2.78 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
35 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.66%, win rate 48.5%, beating the market by -3.7 pts on average.
What does 森田 do? Company profile
Overview
8410 對應森田印刷廠股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證。公司登記成立日為 1972/09/08，總部與主要生產基地位於台南市安南區科技五路 85 號，董事長黃樟山，總經理黃展隆；上櫃掛牌日為 2011/02/23。依公開資料，實收資本額約新台幣 365,892,000 元，已發行普通股約 36,589,200 股。113 年報揭露 2025/04/30 員工合計 211 人，含間接人員 100 人、直接人員 111 人。主要股東依 2025/04/26 年報名單為怡欣投資 11.24%、紹瑋投資 11.24%、侑聖投資 8.30%、詠恩投資 8.30%、陳大愚 6.85%、江玉蓮 4.95%、林靜亮 4.46%、楊秀滿 4.31%、蕭惠文 4.06%、黃樟山 3.57%。2025 年法說逐字稿/摘要顯示 2025 全年營收約新台幣 11.19 億元、EPS 3.27 元；此為法說資料，非完整 2025 年報。
Business
森田核心業務為熱轉印膜、模內轉印膜 IMR、模內射出膜 IML、模內嵌片 INS 等薄膜外觀裝飾材料，製程涵蓋精密塗佈、凹版印刷、製版、貼合與後段加工。113 年度營業比重：熱轉印膜新台幣 1,160,270 仟元、占 99.19%，其他 9,429 仟元、占 0.81%；112 年熱轉印膜占 99.15%。主要產品用途包括筆記型電腦、平板電腦、遊戲機等電子資訊產品，汽車內飾件，以及日用品、化妝品外殼、文具、運動器材等民生用品。商業模式為與品牌客戶、系統廠及機構/機殼廠在產品開發初期共同討論外觀、材料與量產良率，森田提供品牌指定或共同開發的薄膜材料，再配合中游機構廠射出成型或加工。113 年銷售地區高度集中於中國大陸 93.54%，台灣 2.93%，印尼 1.31%，越南 0.84%，其他 1.38%。MoneyDJ 資料列示主要客戶包含華碩、宏碁、微星、HP、Dell、聯想等；公司年報因商業機密以甲、乙、丙公司揭露主要銷貨客戶，113 年前三大客戶占銷貨淨額 26.79%、16.82%、12.93%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025：公司年報與法說均指出 NB 產業仍是營收主軸，AI PC、Windows 換機、電競與商務需求支撐中期需求，但 2025 年與 2026 年初仍受景氣、匯率、關稅不確定、DRAM 漲價與 CPU 缺料等因素影響；2025 全年營收約 11.19 億元、EPS 3.27 元，較 2024 高獲利水準下滑。2026：主要成長動能為指紋優化 IMR 已陸續量產出貨，應用於中高階或旗艦 NB；美系品牌重新導入 IMR，2026/2027 年有新案開發與量產機會；金屬轉印技術預計於 2026 年 Computex 由合作系統廠發表，目標切入金屬機殼 A 件市場。2027：若美系品牌與金屬轉印案量產順利，營收成長可來自高階 NB、金屬機殼、指紋優化 IMR 擴散至更多機種，以及家電/汽車內飾 INS-H/INS-P 材料放量；但公司未提供量化財測，需以後續月營收與法說追蹤。2028：中長期推估動能包括 AI PC 滲透率提升、品牌對免噴塗低 VOC 製程與低碳材料需求增加、家電智慧化與汽車內飾質感升級；風險為 NB 單一產業集中度高、中國大陸銷售比重過高、關鍵塗劑/膜紙仍有部分供應集中、國外日德材料/製程競爭、品牌降價壓力、匯率與原物料波動、環保法規成本，以及新技術導入時間可能晚於預期。
Supply Chain
- 群佳 年報列為膜紙主要供應商之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司，stock_id 置 null。
- 聯郵 年報列為膜紙主要供應商之一，113 年因降低成本增加進貨、進貨比重達 12.18%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- 塗劑供應商 A、B 年報以 A、B 匿名揭露塗劑主要供應商，供應狀況良好且品質穩定；部分關鍵材料供應商未具名。
- 日本及國外關鍵材料供應商 年報說明部分關鍵材料早期仰賴國外廠商，並與供應商共同研發新材料；公司同時導入第二供應商與在地化替代料。
- 華碩 2357 MoneyDJ 與第三方公司資料列為森田 IMR 薄膜主要品牌客戶之一，應用於 NB 等 3C 產品外觀裝飾。
- 宏碁 2353 MoneyDJ 與第三方公司資料列為主要品牌客戶之一，應用於 NB 產品。
- 微星 2377 MoneyDJ 列為主要客戶之一，屬台股上市電競/電腦品牌，下游應用為 NB。
- HP MoneyDJ 與公司品牌行銷資料列為主要品牌客戶之一；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- Dell MoneyDJ 與公司品牌行銷資料列為主要品牌客戶之一；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
- 聯想 MoneyDJ 與公司品牌行銷資料列為主要品牌客戶之一；香港上市/中國品牌，非台股掛牌。
- 中游機構/機殼廠與系統廠 年報說明產業鏈下游包含系統廠與品牌廠，中游機構廠負責部件、模具與塑膠機殼射出成型；年報未公開具名。
Competitors
- Nissha Co., Ltd.（日本寫真印刷） MoneyDJ 指出其為全球主要 IMR 薄膜競爭對手，日系廠商，非台股掛牌。
- Kurz Group（德商庫爾茲） MoneyDJ 與年報競爭描述均指向德系供應商，Kurz 以熱燙印與表面裝飾技術聞名，非台股掛牌。
- 其他日系、德系 IMR/表面裝飾材料廠 年報提及 NB 產業導入初期由日本與德國廠商掌握，現 NB 產業薄膜供應商主要剩森田與一家德系供應商；未逐一具名。
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.