Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8446 華研. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8446

No install, open FinLab Studio

8446

華研 Cultural & Creative As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 華研 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 77Quality 90Growth 93Momentum 31Chips 34

Is 華研 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~98% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.5%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 8th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 14th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -0.7% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 120.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.88
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 玉山-新莊 holds 1,094 lots
  • sellers have 49 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 玉山-新莊 has accumulated 1,094 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 兆豐證券 peaked at 113 lots, has sold 89%, 12 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.26pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.62pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -436 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
玉山-新莊(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐元大-復北玉山證券富邦-新店華南永昌
Distributing
兆豐證券凱基-新豐國泰-新莊元大-北屯新光國泰-板橋
Desks
own scale
宏遠證券永豐金證券富邦-板橋凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 玉山-新莊 +1,094
    sold 0%· still adding
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 +198
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 元大-復北 +192
    sold 0%
  • 玉山證券 +169
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-新店 +99
    sold 10%
  • 華南永昌 +97
    sold 13%

Distributing

  • 兆豐證券 12 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 凱基-新豐 47 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 國泰-新莊 8 left
    sold 85%· paused recently
  • 元大-北屯 10 left
    sold 71%· paused recently
  • 新光 15 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 國泰-板橋 12 left
    sold 52%· ~12 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 宏遠證券 -627
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -492
    unclassified
  • 富邦-板橋 -421
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -279
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 49 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +579 absorbed / -58 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -57 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 120.23%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

56 historical occurrences (since 2013-12-19)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 52.3%, Sample 44, Median +0.44%, Excess -0.23%, Beat mkt rate 45.5%；60-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 44, Median +3.44%, Excess -0.92%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 61.4%, Sample 44, Median +4.43%, Excess -2.91%, Beat mkt rate 40.9%

120 days after: historical avg +4.08%

20-day +1.18%
60-day +1.99%
120-day +4.08%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.3%
54.5%
61.4%
Sample
44
44
44
Median
+0.44%
+3.44%
+4.43%
Excess
-0.23%
-0.92%
-2.91%
Beat mkt rate
45.5%
50%
40.9%

Over 44 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.08%, lagged the market by 2.91 pts; win rate 61.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here1126+1.6% -7.1% 33.1% -20.5%
20-40 493+13.1% +11.7% 70.2% -0.2%
40-60 390+25.6% +23.1% 87.9% +5.8%
60-80 37-15% -18.5% 0% -34.9%
80-100 4Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 10.07, at the 14.4th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+2%
Win rate 42.2% Excess -6.6%
867d
+10.8%
Win rate 72.1% Excess +1.2%
337d
Insufficient data
(28d)
60-day momentum down
Now
+5.3%
Win rate 41.6% Excess -8.7%
742d
+7.9%
Win rate 72.3% Excess +3.1%
195d
Insufficient data
(0d)

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 742 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.3%, win rate 41.6%, lagged the market by 8.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

12 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.94%, win rate 25%, beating the market by -4.25 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

50 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.82%, win rate 61.2%, beating the market by -0.05 pts on average.

What does 華研 do? Company profile

文化創意業／流行音樂、著作權授權與演藝經紀 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

8446 對應華研國際音樂股份有限公司，為上櫃普通股。公司成立於1999/05/01，原名華葳音樂國際股份有限公司，總部位於台北市中山區建國北路二段135號15樓，股票於2013/12/19上櫃。董事長為呂燕清，總經理為何燕玲，發言人為李首賢，代理發言人／財務長為蘇雅惠。實收資本額為新台幣529,144,050元，已發行普通股52,914,405股，股務代理為兆豐證券，簽證會計師事務所為資誠聯合會計師事務所。員工規模：2025年度84人，2026/05/20為83人。主要股東依2026年年報揭露，呂燕清本人持股12.97%，另配偶及利用他人名義持股亦有揭露；驊訊文創科技股份有限公司持股9.79%，呂世玉7.34%，吳女而慈5.84%，華樣管理顧問股份有限公司1.89%，中國信託創業投資股份有限公司1.68%，東宇投資股份有限公司1.32%，呂仁傑1.08%，黃靜文0.99%，上普管理顧問股份有限公司0.91%。公司為台灣流行音樂界少數且自稱為音樂內容業界唯一股票上市櫃公司。

Business

華研主要從事三大業務：一、流行音樂錄製、製作、發行及實體產品銷售；二、著作權授權，包括數位音樂錄音與視聽著作授權、KTV授權、歌曲授權、詞曲授權、插畫圖文授權、公播與新媒體平台授權；三、文創圖文作家、詞曲作者、專業職人與藝人演藝經紀，包括演唱會、音樂會、商業演出、代言、肖像商標授權、戲劇電影主持及真人秀。2025年度合併營收新台幣1,084,714仟元，較2024年度1,375,487仟元減少21.1%；2025年營業利益456,483仟元，稅後淨利544,930仟元，EPS 10.30元。2025年度營收結構為：授權收入631,900仟元、占58.3%；演藝經紀收入446,043仟元、占41.1%；實體產品收入6,771仟元、占0.6%。相較2024年，演藝經紀收入因大型巡演週期下降，授權收入成為更高比重的核心收入。公司內容資產依2025法說資料約有2,500首歌曲、約100位詞曲作者、約30位歌手／演員／主持人／文創作家／運動明星、約2,350首詞曲創作、約110類商標、約1,600首視聽著作。代表藝人與內容包含動力火車、林宥嘉、郁可唯、曾沛慈、JUD陳泳希、babyMINT、陳小霞、李友廷及文創圖文角色等。商業模式以自有或經紀IP與曲庫為核心，透過數位串流、海外授權、KTV／公播、演唱會與商演、品牌合作、影視與文創投資延伸變現。主要客戶部分，年報以合約保密代稱A、B、C公司，2025年度A公司占營收44%、C公司占22%，公司說明其均為海外音樂發行、授權與演出活動代理商；公開可辨識的重要合作方包括騰訊音樂娛樂集團，華研自2021/03起與其在大陸地區就詞曲、錄音及視聽著作公開傳輸權展開策略合作。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已反映演唱會週期波動：林宥嘉《idol》於2024年底收官、動力火車《都是因為愛》於2025年10月落幕，2025年大型巡演場次較少，使營收與營業利益年減，但授權收入比重提升、毛利率相對受益，且處分Cloud Village Inc.股票、投資性不動產租金與利息收入挹注業外。2026年公司計畫重啟成長動能：2026年5月起啟動動力火車《一路向前》世界巡迴演唱會台北小巨蛋旗艦場，6月推出林宥嘉《超級管家》世界巡迴演唱會，並規劃推出動力火車、林宥嘉、郁可唯、曾沛慈、JUD陳泳希、babyMINT、鄭馥儀及新藝人的歌曲作品。2025至2028年展望重點為：一、全球音樂串流與訂閱帳戶持續成長，IFPI資料顯示2024年全球唱片音樂收入成長4.8%、串流占比約69%，有利華研長尾曲庫授權；二、台灣現場展演市場熱絡，演唱會、商演、品牌代言與海外巡演仍是演藝經紀收入彈性來源；三、公司持續投入詞曲創作大賽、華研所、ZZ世代練習生徵選與新人培育，對中長期曲庫與藝人IP供給重要；四、跨足文創圖文授權與影視投資，可帶動音樂、藝人、戲劇與商品的交叉變現；五、與騰訊音樂等平台合作有助大陸及海外授權與宣傳。主要風險包括：演唱會收入高度受藝人檔期與巡演週期影響，年度波動大；A、B、C海外代理客戶集中且名稱未揭露，雖公司稱可更換代理商但仍需追蹤；生成式AI未授權訓練、盜版及侵權可能壓抑版權收入；中國大陸與海外市場政策、平台分潤、匯率與跨境演出審批存在不確定；新人培育投入大且成功率不確定；大型演唱會成本、票房、退票、場館檔期及安全事件均可能影響毛利。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 詞曲創作者、藝人、練習生與文創圖文作家 非上市櫃個人或團隊，為華研最重要的非實體內容來源；公司透過詞曲創作大賽、華研所、ZZ世代練習生徵選及經紀合約取得新作品、藝人與IP。
  • 九水有限公司 未上市櫃；2025年度主要實體產品供應商之一，年報揭露為主要進貨供應商，主要供應包裝印刷品等。
  • 宏美彩色印刷股份有限公司 未上市櫃；年報列示為包裝印刷品主要供應商，2025年度主要進貨供應商之一。
  • 鈺德科技股份有限公司 3050 台股上市櫃公司；年報列示為光碟片供應商，與華研實體音樂產品壓片相關。
  • 橙創有限公司 未上市櫃；年報列示為黑膠、彩膠唱片供應商，2024年度曾為主要供應商之一。
  • 演唱會製作、舞台、燈光音響、售票與場館服務商 多為專案合作供應商；華研演藝經紀收入依賴演唱會與商演執行，相關供應商包括舞台搭建、燈光音響、服裝造型、售票服務與展演空間，公開年報未逐一揭露名單。
Downstream
  • 騰訊音樂娛樂集團 中國／美國及香港上市集團，非台股；華研自2021/03起與其在大陸地區就詞曲、錄音及視聽著作公開傳輸權策略合作，為重要海外數位授權與宣傳通路。
  • A公司、B公司、C公司 年報因合約保密未揭露名稱；為海外音樂發行、授權與演出活動代理商。2025年度A公司占營收44%、C公司占22%，2024年度A、B、C公司合計占營收69%。
  • 台灣大哥大股份有限公司／MyMusic 3045 台股上市櫃公司；MyMusic為台灣數位音樂平台之一，屬華研數位音樂授權下游通路範疇。
  • 遠傳電信股份有限公司／friDay音樂 4904 台股上市櫃公司；friDay音樂為台灣數位音樂平台之一，屬華研數位音樂授權下游通路範疇。
  • KKBOX、LINE MUSIC、Spotify、YouTube Music、Apple Music等數位音樂平台 多數非台股掛牌或屬海外集團；為華研音樂錄音、視聽與詞曲授權的重要串流與下載通路。
  • KTV、公播、公演、戲劇、遊戲、品牌代言與商業演出客戶 包含視唱中心、影視製作方、遊戲與廣告品牌、企業活動與演唱會觀眾；多為專案型下游客戶，公開資料未完整揭露個別名單。

Competitors

  • 寬宏藝術經紀股份有限公司 6596 台股上櫃文創展演公司，主辦國內外演唱會、展覽與藝文活動並經營票務，與華研在演唱會主辦、藝文展演與部分藝人活動市場競爭或合作。
  • 必應創造股份有限公司 6625 台股上櫃文創展演公司，主力為演唱會製作、軟硬體整合與設備租賃，與華研在演唱會製作供應鏈及部分演出專案市場具競合關係。
  • 寬魚國際股份有限公司 6101 台股上櫃文創娛樂公司，涉足藝人、演唱會、影視及活動相關業務，與華研在文創娛樂與演出活動市場部分重疊。
  • 環球音樂台灣、索尼音樂台灣、華納音樂台灣 跨國唱片公司台灣分支，非台股掛牌；在華語音樂製作、藝人經紀、曲庫授權與串流平台授權市場為主要國際競爭者。
  • 相信音樂國際股份有限公司 未上市櫃；以五月天等藝人經紀、音樂製作與演唱會相關業務著稱，為華語流行音樂與演唱會市場重要競爭者。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.