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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8942 森鉅. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8942
8942
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 森鉅 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 14th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.7%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 52th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 84th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.8% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 康和-台南 has accumulated 888 lots since the start (sold 9%), still adding.
- Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 466 lots, has sold 29%, 329 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.36pp, mid holders +6, retail -1.96pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -426 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 康和-台南 +888
- 統一-敦南 +613
- 兆豐-公益 +598
- 國票-台南 +518
- 新加坡商瑞銀 +442
- 國票-桃園 +290
Distributing
- 凱基-台北 329 left
- 永豐金-永康 137 left
- 國票-長城 57 left
- 玉山-台南 54 left
- 兆豐-台南 65 left
- 元大-四維 58 left
Desks
- 美商高盛 -419
- 元大-路竹 -387
- 土銀-台南 -335
- 第一金-中壢 -303
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 1686 | +5% | -2.4% | 45.1% | -13% |
| 20-40 | 423 | +8.8% | +4.2% | 57.2% | -16.7% |
| 40-60 | 475 | +9.4% | +6.4% | 59.8% | -5.6% |
| 60-80 | 199 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 49.7% | -5.6% |
| 80-100 You are here | 194 | +6.3% | +2.4% | 55.2% | +5.5% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 23.91, at the 84.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 153 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 14%, win rate 7.2%, lagged the market by 8.6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.73%, win rate 72.7%, beating the market by +11.55 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
99 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.35%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +2.22 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
55 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.01%, win rate 38.9%, beating the market by -2.37 pts on average.
What does 森鉅 do? Company profile
Overview
8942 對應證券為森鉅，櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於 1994 年，英文名 Xxentria Technology Materials Co., Ltd.，總部與登記地址在台南市仁德區中山路10巷16號。董事長為鄭憲得，總經理為鄭憲松。公開發行日為 2000-07-12，興櫃日為 2002-09-30，上櫃日為 2003-05-16。公司官網投資人基本資料列示已發行普通股 198,842,255 股、實收資本額 1,988,422,550 元。年報列示母公司 2024 年底員工約 212 人；2025 年法說會簡報列示全球全職員工逾 300 人。2025-04-07 前十大股東包括匯豐（台灣）商銀受託保管供應商科技投資戶 8.20%、鄭憲得 2.26%、三涵股份有限公司 2.14%、尤信正 2.03%、鄭憲松 2.00%、鄭憲堂 1.95%、威凱投資 1.62%、陳玉蓮 1.50%、承啟投資 1.38%、大通託管先進星光先進總合國際股票指數專戶 1.14%。
Business
森鉅是金屬塑膠複合板專業製造商，核心產品包含鋁塑/鋼塑複合板、室內/室外建築複合板、車廂板、G-BOND 鍍鋅鋼複合板、烤漆鋁板、PVD 鍍膜複合板、陽極鋁複合板，以及太陽熱能用反射片、集熱管、集熱片等。2024 年主要產品營收比重為複合板 73.54%、其他 26.46%；其他包含鋁捲、回收料、原料、照明反射片、太陽能集熱管、集熱片及電商等。2024 年銷售地區為內銷 23.16%、美洲 69.39%、亞洲 6.05%、其他 1.40%；2023 年美洲比重曾達 92.02%，顯示北美車體/拖車板需求是關鍵。年報揭露北美廂式掛車市占約 50%，2025 法說會簡報則稱 G-BOND 於美國 dry van 市場為第一名、2019 年約占 30%，2024 年美國整體拖車板市場中複合板占 60%。主要商業模式為自有品牌與客製化材料製造，透過經銷代理商、帷幕牆工程公司、營造廠與車體製造業銷售；年報因契約保密將主要客戶以 A 公司揭露，2024 年 A 公司占銷貨淨額 59.81%，2023 年占 71.49%。公司亦併入電商創業家相關業務，導致其他類營收占比上升。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025 年展望偏審慎。公司 2025 年法說會表示 2025 前九月營收 30.74 億元、年減 1.86%，毛利率 31.36%，主因美國 reciprocal tariffs 增加成本並造成市場需求因關稅不確定性下滑；Yahoo 月營收資料顯示 2025 年 1-11 月累計營收 33.29 億元、年減 13.64%，且 2025 年 9-11 月單月營收年減幅明顯。成長動能方面，公司持續布局貨櫃車零組件、輕量化與低碳車體板、A-Bond 新一代鋁合金複合板、智能製造與自動化，並規劃中國、印度、英國、澳洲等新市場。公司新聞與年報提及美國客戶占複合板業務 80-90%，美國田納西州複合板廠處於產能與廠房設計規劃，若順利可能於 2026 年加入營運；泰國車軸廠完工並進入客戶端測試，亦是往車體零組件供應鏈延伸的方向。2026-2028 的中期機會在於北美車隊汰換週期、複合板相對傳統鋁皮的滲透率提升、輕量化降低油耗與碳排、海外在地化生產降低關稅與物流風險，以及 A-Bond 對高防蝕/低重量需求客戶的拓展。主要風險包含美國關稅與通膨、北美卡車/拖車訂單循環偏弱、利率高造成車隊資本支出遞延、主要客戶集中、匯率波動、鋁捲/鋼捲/PE/PVC 原料價格波動、美國與泰國新廠/新產品量產不確定性，以及電商等非核心業務併表後對毛利率結構的稀釋。
Supply Chain
- 中鋼鋁業股份有限公司 年報列為主要原料供應商之一，供應鋁捲/鋁片相關材料；該公司本身未上市櫃，母集團中鋼為台股上市公司 2002。
- 盛餘股份有限公司 2029 年報列為主要原料供應商之一，供應鋼捲等鍍面鋼品/鋼材，屬台股上市公司。
- 台灣聚合化學品股份有限公司 1304 年報列為主要原料供應商之一，對應 PE 等塑膠原料來源，屬台股上市公司。
- 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 年報列為主要原料供應商之一，對應 PE/PVC 等塑膠原料來源，屬台股上市公司。
- S公司、F公司、Y公司等未揭露供應商 年報主要供應商因契約保密以代號揭露；2024 年 S 公司占進貨淨額 36.47%，2023 年 S 公司占 56.13%，實際名稱無法確認。
- A公司（年報代號） 主要銷貨客戶，因契約保密未揭露名稱；2024 年占銷貨淨額 59.81%，2023 年占 71.49%，近二年主要銷售地區以美洲為主，推定與北美複合板/車體板通路或客戶相關。
- 經銷代理商、帷幕牆工程公司、營造廠商 年報揭露複合板主要往來客戶類型，包含建築帷幕牆、室內裝潢、營建與工程通路；多數個別公司未揭露或非台股掛牌。
- 車體製造業與北美 dry van/廂式掛車供應鏈 下游應用為車廂板、G-BOND 拖車複合板、輕量化車體材料；主要客戶名稱未揭露，法說會與新聞均指出美國客戶為核心需求來源。
Competitors
- 吉祥工業股份有限公司（ALUCOMAT） 年報明確指出國內生產鋁塑複合板廠商主要為森鉅與吉祥工業兩家；吉祥工業未查得台股上市櫃代號。
- 德國、日本、韓國及中國大陸複合板廠商 年報指出複合板為全球性競爭產業，國際競爭者來自德國、日本、韓國及中國大陸，未逐一揭露公司名稱。
- 傳統鋁皮/鋼板車體材料供應商 在北美拖車板市場，傳統鋁皮與鋼板仍是替代材料；法說會指出 2024 年美國整體拖車板市場傳統材料約 40%。
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.