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9905

大華 Other As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 大華 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 83Quality 43Growth 65Momentum 35Chips 89

Is 大華 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 44th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 26th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 63th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 9.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 20.0%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.25
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 元大-內湖民權 holds 469 lots
  • sellers have 195 lots left, ~1050 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-內湖民權 has accumulated 469 lots since the start (sold 2%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-和平 peaked at 389 lots, has sold 28%, 279 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.43pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.27pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -20 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-內湖民權美好-蘆洲凱基-台北台灣摩根士丹利元富-基隆花旗環球
Distributing
元大-和平臺銀-民權富邦-陽明光和-和美元大-土城永寧元大-北投
Desks
own scale
富邦-基隆台新-基隆新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-板新
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-內湖民權 +469
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 美好-蘆洲 +295
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-台北 +267
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +196
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-基隆 +131
    sold 0%
  • 花旗環球 +113
    sold 19%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-和平 279 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 臺銀-民權 105 left
    sold 48%· ~1050 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-陽明 36 left
    sold 35%· ~60 sessions to clear
  • 光和-和美 22 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 元大-土城永寧 5 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 元大-北投 12 left
    sold 59%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦-基隆 -1,379
    unclassified
  • 台新-基隆 -131
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -116
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金-板新 -103
    unclassified
Still selling 195 lots ~1050 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,156 absorbed / -47 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 20.03%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

37 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 80.6%, Sample 31, Median +2.32%, Excess +3.17%, Beat mkt rate 61.3%；60-day: Win 67.7%, Sample 31, Median +3.03%, Excess +3.33%, Beat mkt rate 41.9%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 30, Median +3.16%, Excess +2.98%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +6.27%

20-day +5.07%
60-day +6.61%
120-day +6.27%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
80.6%
67.7%
60%
Sample
31
31
30
Median
+2.32%
+3.03%
+3.16%
Excess
+3.17%
+3.33%
+2.98%
Beat mkt rate
61.3%
41.9%
50%

Over 30 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.27%, beat the market by 2.98 pts; win rate 60%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 6%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 historical occurrences (since 2012-05-08)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 45.3%, Sample 64, Median -0.22%, Excess -1.34%, Beat mkt rate 40.6%；60-day: Win 53.2%, Sample 62, Median +0.6%, Excess -3.37%, Beat mkt rate 37.1%；120-day: Win 53.3%, Sample 60, Median +0.56%, Excess -5.81%, Beat mkt rate 31.7%

120 days after: historical avg +0.82%

20-day -0.49%
60-day +0.08%
120-day +0.82%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45.3%
53.2%
53.3%
Sample
64
62
60
Median
-0.22%
+0.6%
+0.56%
Excess
-1.34%
-3.37%
-5.81%
Beat mkt rate
40.6%
37.1%
31.7%

Over 60 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.82%, lagged the market by 5.81 pts; win rate 53.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 639+2.3% -0.4% 49% -10.8%
20-40 471+7.3% +8% 72.4% -3.9%
40-60 473+2.1% +1.1% 56.2% -7.9%
60-80 You are here706+2.2% -0.1% 48.6% -20.5%
80-100 751-1.9% -0.4% 39.7% -22.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 14.93, at the 62.6th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+4.5%
Win rate 63.8% Excess -1.5%
403d
Now
+0.6%
Win rate 48% Excess -5.4%
636d
-1.2%
Win rate 31.6% Excess -7.3%
684d
60-day momentum down
+2.1%
Win rate 47.4% Excess -4.9%
479d
+0.8%
Win rate 58.7% Excess -11.2%
499d
+1%
Win rate 70.6% Excess -14%
459d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 636 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 0.6%, win rate 48%, lagged the market by 5.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.66%, win rate 37.5%, beating the market by -2.14 pts on average.

What does 大華 do? Company profile

其他業；金屬包裝容器、製罐與罐蓋製造 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

大華金屬工業股份有限公司，股票代號9905，為台灣證交所上市普通股，英文簡稱GCM。公司成立於1973/11/26，上市日期為1990/08/08，總公司地址為台北市松江路293之805號，另有總管理處新北市泰山區明志路三段533號、富岡廠與頭份廠。董事長姜明理，總經理姜明德；實收資本額新台幣3,050,000,000元，普通股305,000,000股。年報揭露截至114/3/31員工人數752人；113年度員工746人、112年度758人。主要股東依113年度年報包括菘綾投資7.23%、建大投資6.81%、康寧投資6.41%、元大投資5.24%、正大投資3.87%、姜明理3.76%、捷頤投資3.75%、永正投資3.35%、永貞投資3.35%、黌達投資2.31%。主要生產與轉投資據點包含苗栗頭份廠、桃園富岡廠、上海聯合製罐、重慶聯合製罐、濟南聯合製罐、華通聯合塑膠、越南包裝製罐等。

Business

大華為金屬包裝容器製造商，主要產品包括鋁易開罐、三片式鐵罐、二片式擠壓食品罐、鋁/鐵易開蓋與全開蓋、LLDPE塑膠纏繞膜等，產品應用於啤酒、汽水、果汁、茶、咖啡、運動飲料、食品罐頭、工業產品集體打包與托盤包裝。113年度產品營收比重為鋁罐68%、鋁/鐵蓋底18%、塑膠膜4%、三片式鐵罐1%、其他9%。公司年報自述為國內唯一綜合性包裝容器製造企業，提供食品與飲料業完整包裝服務；MoneyDJ資料指出其為國內最大鋁罐製造商，市占率約35%。商業模式為採購鋁材、馬口鐵皮、塗料、膠料與塑膠原料，透過高度自動化製罐、印刷塗佈、罐蓋沖壓與包裝製程，銷售予食品飲料品牌與包裝通路。113年度年報揭露內銷95%、外銷5%；MoneyDJ另列主要市場含台灣與中國，台灣客戶包括台灣菸酒、統一、維他露、味丹、黑松、可口可樂等，中國客戶包括青島啤酒、雪花啤酒、龍泉啤酒、三得利、統一中國、康師傅、百事可樂中國、可口可樂中國、娃哈哈、加多寶等，鋁蓋客戶包含福貞-KY。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以穩健但受原料與競爭牽動為主。成長動能方面，鋁罐與馬口鐵包裝受惠於飲料與罐裝食品需求、鋁/鐵罐高回收價值與永續包裝趨勢；年報指出鋁罐、鐵罐因氣體阻隔、阻光、密封與回收價值，在食品飲料包裝仍具競爭優勢。公司計畫開發鋁覆膜罐國內外市場、開發各型鋁/鐵罐蓋型與新材質、持續建立供應東南亞國協之產銷據點；長期策略為擴展海外據點、貼近客戶、降低運輸成本，並提升管理、生產績效與後勤服務。2026Q1合併財報顯示營收新台幣22.624億元、營業毛利2.279億元、營業淨利1.105億元、本期淨利1.084億元，較2025Q1營收19.652億元與本期淨利0.722億元改善，顯示2026年初需求與價格/產品組合有回溫跡象。2025-2028年主要機會包括中國與東南亞包裝需求、越南罐蓋產銷據點、低碳產品如aTULC/鋁覆膜罐、節能減碳與供應商永續管理。主要風險為鋁材與馬口鐵價格波動、進口原料與匯率、同業競爭造成短期獲利壓力、客戶小量多樣化造成換線與製造成本提高、中國市場價格競爭、海外轉投資中佛山市三水強力聯合容器有限公司產能利用率與虧損改善進度、極端氣候與供應鏈中斷。2027-2028年未見公司公開量化財測，本段為根據年報策略、2026Q1財報與產業趨勢之推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國際鋁材與鋁合金捲片供應商 年報指出鋁材多透過國際市場點價後，委由跨國鋁材製造廠加工成鋁合金捲片後進口；113年度主要供應商因契約以L、K、I、M代號揭露，未公開公司名稱。
  • 國內外馬口鐵製造商 供應三片式鐵罐與鐵蓋所需馬口鐵皮；年報僅稱由國內外馬口鐵製造廠商供應，未揭露具名供應商。
  • 塗料、膠料、酯粒與塑膠原料供應商 供應印刷塗佈、罐內噴漆、易開蓋塗膠與LLDPE纏繞膜所需材料；年報未揭露具名供應商。
  • Rusal及其他全球鋁業公司 年報在鋁供應狀況中提及Rusal為全球主要鋁供應商之一；此為產業上游背景，不代表已確認為大華直接供應商，Rusal非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 統一企業 1216 台股上市食品飲料業者；MoneyDJ列為大華台灣客戶之一，使用金屬罐等包裝材料。
  • 味丹企業 1201 台股上市食品飲料業者；MoneyDJ列為大華台灣客戶之一，應用於茶、咖啡、飲料等包裝。
  • 黑松 1234 台股上市飲料業者；MoneyDJ列為大華台灣客戶之一，使用飲料罐包材。
  • 福貞-KY 8411 台股上市製罐業者；MoneyDJ列為大華鋁蓋客戶。
  • 台灣菸酒公司 國營事業、非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為台灣客戶之一，啤酒與飲料包裝應用。
  • 可口可樂系統 跨國飲料品牌，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為台灣及中國客戶之一。
  • 青島啤酒 香港/中國上市啤酒公司，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為中國客戶之一。
  • 康師傅控股 香港上市食品飲料公司，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為中國客戶之一。

Competitors

  • 福貞-KY 8411 台股上市製罐與金屬包裝業者，MoneyDJ列為大華鋁/鐵罐主要競爭者之一。
  • 統一實業 9907 台股上市包材與馬口鐵相關業者，MoneyDJ列為競爭者之一。
  • 台灣製罐 未確認台股上市櫃；MoneyDJ列為競爭者之一。
  • Ball Corporation 美國上市金屬包裝大廠，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為競爭者之一。
  • 中糧包裝 香港/中國包裝業者，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為競爭者之一。
  • 皇冠控股 Crown Holdings 美國上市金屬包裝大廠，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為競爭者之一。
  • 奧瑞金科技 中國A股金屬包裝業者，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ列為競爭者之一。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.