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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1109 信大. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1109
1109
quality needs a look, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 信大 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 24th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.1%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 40th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 64th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.1% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -6% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 富邦-建國 has accumulated 406 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 群益金鼎-高雄 peaked at 198 lots, has sold 55%, 90 left, ~32 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.39pp, mid holders -2, retail +0.12pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -316 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 富邦-建國 +406
- 群益金鼎-中港 +385
- 彰銀 +250
- 臺銀 +229
- 元大-高雄 +190
- 土銀-玉里 +185
Distributing
- 群益金鼎-高雄 90 left
- 統一 95 left
- 元大證券 32 left
- 新光 24 left
- 元大-龍潭 7 left
- 元大-文心興安 10 left
Desks
- 永豐金-嘉義 -662
- 富邦-南京 -480
- 永豐金-板盛 -348
- 群益金鼎-西松 -323
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 1204 | +10.5% | +10% | 63% | -0.7% |
| 20-40 | 759 | +1.7% | -0.2% | 49.4% | -13.4% |
| 40-60 | 357 | +5.1% | +6.4% | 60.2% | -35.1% |
| 60-80 You are here | 55 | +17% | +17.7% | 100% | -3.1% |
| 80-100 | 177 | +4% | +4.9% | 83.6% | -19.3% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 18.54, at the 64.0th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 494 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.5%, win rate 30.6%, lagged the market by 19.1%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.92%, win rate 59.4%, beating the market by -0.25 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.61%, win rate 71.2%, beating the market by +2.62 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
40 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.54%, win rate 45.9%, beating the market by -4.36 pts on average.
What does 信大 do? Company profile
Overview
信大水泥股份有限公司(Hsing Ta Cement Co., Ltd.),成立於1964年3月15日,1991年12月5日於台灣證券交易所掛牌上市,股票代號1109,屬水泥工業類股。總部位於台北市中正區寶慶路37號7樓。董事長為楊智雄,總經理為楊大寬,發言人為張清壽,實際經營以楊氏家族為核心。實收資本額約新台幣34.11億元。股權結構方面,前十大股東持股合計約38.56%,外資持股約2.37%,股東人數約1.2萬人。公司在台灣(蘇澳廠等)及中國大陸南京設有水泥生產基地。
Business
主要營業項目為水泥及水泥製品之生產與運銷,並涵蓋石灰石礦之開採、加工、倉儲與經銷,預拌混凝土,一般廢棄物處理,以及不動產買賣租賃等。主力產品為第一型普通卜特蘭水泥與高爐(爐石)水泥,主要應用於預拌混凝土廠、建築與公共工程、地質改良及粉刷市場。商業模式為「礦石—熟料—水泥—預拌混凝土」的垂直整合製造銷售,並橫跨兩岸營運。依鉅亨資料,集團水泥及熟料銷售市場分布約為台灣33.56%、中國大陸南京66.44%,中國市場為營收主要來源。2025年全年合併營收約44.32億元、每股盈餘(EPS)約1.03元;2026年1至5月累計營收約15.44億元、年減約15.7%,2026年第一季毛利率約6.23%、營益率約-1.86%,反映兩岸需求疲弱與價格壓力。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028年信大營運面臨明顯逆風與結構性挑戰。中國端:南京廠50公里內已聚集全椒海螺、安徽磐景、滁州中聯等大型同業,合計產能約1,300萬噸,且2022~2024年安徽地區新水泥產線陸續投產,加上長江上游低價船運水泥透過既有通路競爭,造成供給過剩、量價齊跌;中建材、海螺等大型集團挾資本優勢併購區域混凝土廠並以集團內採購為主,使信大市占與議價力受擠壓。台灣端:房市與公共工程需求相對溫和,水泥價格與出貨量波動牽動獲利。成長與轉型動能來自低碳/減碳趨勢——發展高爐(爐石)水泥等低碳混合水泥、以一般廢棄物及替代燃料協同處理(co-processing)降低成本與碳排、循環經濟與廢棄物資源化業務。主要風險包括:中國房地產與基建放緩、兩岸水泥價格疲弱、煤炭與能源成本波動、碳費/碳權及歐盟CBAM等法規成本上升、產業產能過剩與整併壓力。整體展望偏向審慎,獲利對兩岸水泥景氣循環高度敏感。
Supply Chain
- 石灰石礦(自有礦場開採) 水泥熟料最主要原料,信大自行開採加工石灰石,屬垂直整合上游,非外部上市公司
- 煤炭供應商 水泥窯主要燃料,多仰賴進口動力煤,供應商非台股掛牌
- 台灣電力公司(台電) 水泥生產屬高耗能,電力為主要能源成本來源;台電為國營未上市
- 中鋼 2002 高爐煉鋼副產之水淬高爐石(爐石)為生產高爐水泥的混合材原料來源之一,屬上游原料供應
- 預拌混凝土廠 水泥最大宗下游客戶,將水泥加工為預拌混凝土供應營建工程;多為區域性業者,部分為信大自有預拌據點
- 國產(國產實業建設) 2504 台灣大型預拌混凝土供應商,屬水泥的下游通路/客戶類型代表
- 營建與公共工程業者 建築、土木與公共工程為水泥最終應用端,客戶分散且多元,無單一代表上市公司
Competitors
- 台泥(台灣水泥) 1101 台灣最大水泥廠,兩岸及海外布局,規模遠大於信大
- 亞泥(亞洲水泥) 1102 台灣第二大水泥廠,中國市場布局深,主要同業競爭者
- 嘉泥(嘉新水泥) 1103 水泥工業同業,近年轉型多角化
- 環泥(環球水泥) 1104 水泥及建材同業競爭者
- 幸福水泥 1108 台灣水泥同業,規模與信大相近
- 東泥(東南水泥) 1110 台灣水泥同業競爭者
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.