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1236

宏亞 Food As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 宏亞 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 61Quality 39Growth 26Momentum 40Chips 72

Is 宏亞 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 43th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.8%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 96th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 95th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 3.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.27
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 康和-南崁 holds 282 lots
  • sellers have 263 lots left, ~141 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 康和-南崁 has accumulated 282 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 兆豐-桃園 peaked at 374 lots, has sold 32%, 253 left, ~141 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.72pp, mid holders -1, retail -1.14pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -137 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
康和-南崁元大-桃園凱基-南崁元富宏遠-桃園元大-永康
Distributing
兆豐-桃園國泰-台南港商野村元大-基隆孝二富邦證券統一
Desks
own scale
富邦-木柵台新富邦-羅東元大-淡水
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 康和-南崁 +282
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-桃園 +266
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-南崁 +162
    sold 22%
  • 元富 +116
    sold 0%
  • 宏遠-桃園 +112
    sold 8%
  • 元大-永康 +57
    sold 8%

Distributing

  • 兆豐-桃園 253 left
    sold 32%· ~141 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-台南 6 left
    sold 57%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 5 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 元大-基隆孝二 5 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 2 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 統一 1 left
    sold 88%· ~10 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 富邦-木柵 -130
    unclassified
  • 台新 -127
    unclassified
  • 富邦-羅東 -90
    unclassified
  • 元大-淡水 -77
    unclassified
Still selling 263 lots ~141 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +144 absorbed / -26 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -50 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 historical occurrences (since 2012-12-05)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 19, Median -1.11%, Excess -2.46%, Beat mkt rate 21.1%；60-day: Win 42.1%, Sample 19, Median -1.06%, Excess -7.49%, Beat mkt rate 21.1%；120-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 18, Median -1.6%, Excess -5.1%, Beat mkt rate 16.7%

120 days after: historical avg +6.95%

20-day -0.39%
60-day -0.83%
120-day +6.95%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.4%
42.1%
44.4%
Sample
19
19
18
Median
-1.11%
-1.06%
-1.6%
Excess
-2.46%
-7.49%
-5.1%
Beat mkt rate
21.1%
21.1%
16.7%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.95%, lagged the market by 5.1 pts; win rate 44.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 323-6% -8.4% 20.7% -22.1%
20-40 203-6.2% -7.4% 21.7% -8%
40-60 141-5.2% -4.4% 9.9% -14.7%
60-80 199+36.5% +36.8% 83.9% +33.2%
80-100 You are here1392+5% -2.7% 38.3% -15.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 178.08, at the 94.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-4.1%
Win rate 31.1% Excess -8%
264d
+15.6%
Win rate 40% Excess +14.5%
205d
+1.7%
Win rate 48.8% Excess -8.7%
642d
60-day momentum down
+0.2%
Win rate 58.9% Excess -4.4%
207d
+12.2%
Win rate 57.4% Excess +5.1%
68d
Now
+2.4%
Win rate 35.5% Excess -7.6%
990d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 990 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.4%, win rate 35.5%, lagged the market by 7.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.51%, win rate 58.8%, beating the market by +2.47 pts on average.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

60 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.53%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +0.7 pts on average.

What does 宏亞 do? Company profile

食品工業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1236 對應宏亞食品股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為食品工業。公司成立於 1976/06/14，最早於新北市永和創立並於桃園八德設廠，以「77巧克力」品牌開始行銷；1998 年股票公開上櫃，2001 年由上櫃轉上市。總部位於新北市新店區北新路一段86號20樓之6，主要工廠位於桃園市八德區建國路386號，另有台中、高雄營業所及多個禮坊門市。董事長為張云綺，總經理亦為張云綺。實收資本額為新台幣 866,740,080 元，已發行普通股 86,674,008 股，無特別股。2024 年年報揭露截至 2025/03/31 員工合計 706 人；2024 年度員工合計 749 人。主要法人股東與董事席次相關持股包括禮坊投資股份有限公司、承添投資股份有限公司、統懋投資股份有限公司；年報揭露董事相關持股中，禮坊投資持有約 14.73%，承添投資持有約 11.20%，張舒雁約 5.42%，王聖鈞約 3.18%，張云綺約 2.06%。

Business

宏亞是台灣糖果、巧克力、餅乾、糕餅與禮品食品製造商，主要品牌與事業包括 77、禮坊 Rivon、巧克力共和國。77 事業部以餅乾與巧克力等休閒食品為主，核心產品包含 77乳加、新貴派、大格酥、蜜蘭諾、歐維氏等；禮坊以喜餅、節慶禮盒、法式曲奇、奶油雪茄捲、磅蛋糕、月餅及伴手禮為主；巧克力共和國為觀光工廠與巧克力體驗、手工巧克力銷售業務。產品線包含乳加產線、巧克力產線、威化餅產線、起酥餅產線。商業模式為自有品牌研發、生產、包裝、行銷與銷售，搭配自有門市、官方電商、量販超市、便利商店、禮盒通路、企業/節慶採購及少量外銷。2024 年合併營收新台幣 1,977,776 千元，年增 2.48%，但因可可、奶油及油脂等原料上漲與新品上市銷售費用增加，稅後淨損 24,077 千元、EPS -0.28 元。2025 年合併營收 1,813,512 千元，年減 8%。2026 年 1-5 月累計合併營收 775,056 千元，年增 3%。公司未在可取得資料中完整揭露最新各產品營收佔比及主要客戶名稱，因此產品佔比與客戶集中度不列入確定數字。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以「品牌年輕化、健康化產品、製程效率、通路多元化、外銷分散」為主軸。成長動能包括：一、77 休閒零食持續以經典品牌延伸新品，針對 Gen Z 與年輕客群推出新口味與新包裝；二、禮坊受惠節慶禮盒、企業送禮、伴手禮與電商選物，但結婚對數下降對喜餅需求構成中長期壓力；三、巧克力共和國可發展觀光工廠、DIY 體驗與高品質巧克力商品；四、研發方向聚焦 GABA、乳酸菌、膳食纖維、提升免疫力、強化骨質、有機、無添加、減糖、高蛋白、植物基與天然食材；五、公司規劃以數位化、自有通路、電商與智慧製造提升對內外部需求的回應效率；六、外銷以東南亞、澳洲、北美等區域分散風險，年報揭露 2024 年出口新增菲律賓。主要風險包括：可可、奶油、油脂、糖、麵粉等原物料價格波動；糖果餅乾類產品面臨消費者減糖與健康飲食趨勢；少子化與結婚對數下降影響喜餅市場；食品安全與法規追溯要求提高；國內休閒食品、禮盒與烘焙市場競爭激烈；品牌老化風險與行銷費用增加；若無法順利將成本轉嫁至售價，毛利率仍可能受壓。2025-2028 具體營收與獲利預測未見公司正式發布，本段為根據年報策略、營收趨勢與產業環境所做之研究判斷。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國際可可豆、可可粉、可可脂與巧克力原料供應商 宏亞巧克力、77乳加、歐維氏、大波露與巧克力共和國產品的關鍵原料來源；年報明確指出可可原料上漲侵蝕 2024 年利潤，但未揭露特定供應商名稱。
  • 乳製品、奶油與油脂供應商 禮坊糕餅、曲奇、奶油雪茄捲、起酥與餅乾產品的重要原料來源；年報指出奶油及油脂類原料大幅上揚使成本高漲，未揭露特定供應商名稱。
  • 糖、麵粉、堅果、包材與食品添加物供應商 糖果、餅乾、威化、糕餅與節慶禮盒的上游原物料及包裝供應鏈；實際供應商未於可取得公開資料中逐一揭露。
  • 食品製造與自動化設備商 乳加、巧克力、威化與起酥產線使用自動化煮糖、餅乾成型及多層次製程設備；年報提及以設備與製程改善提升效率，但未揭露設備供應商名稱。
Downstream
  • 自有門市與官方電商 公司透過禮坊門市、77線上商城、禮坊選物及品牌官網進行 B2C 銷售，屬自有通路。
  • 統一超商股份有限公司 2912 便利商店與節慶禮盒、休閒零食通路可能為下游銷售場景；公開資料未確認其為宏亞主要客戶，列為通路推估。
  • 全家便利商店股份有限公司 5903 便利商店休閒食品與節慶商品可能為下游銷售場景；公開資料未確認其為宏亞主要客戶，列為通路推估。
  • 量販、超市、百貨、企業採購與海外經銷商 休閒食品、伴手禮、喜餅與節慶禮盒通路；年報揭露主要銷售地點以國內為主，2024 年國內約 96.8%、外銷約 3.2%，但未揭露特定客戶名稱。

Competitors

  • 聯華食品工業股份有限公司 1231 台股上市食品公司，產品含休閒零食、餅乾、堅果與鮮食，與宏亞 77 休閒食品線在零食貨架與通路競爭。
  • 統一企業股份有限公司 1216 台股上市大型食品飲料與通路集團，雖品類更廣，但在休閒食品、飲料、超商通路與品牌資源上具競爭壓力。
  • 佳格食品股份有限公司 1227 台股上市食品公司，主力為營養食品、沖泡、穀物與乳品類，與宏亞在健康化食品與通路陳列資源上有間接競爭。
  • 南僑投資控股股份有限公司 1702 台股上市公司，事業涵蓋油脂、冷凍麵糰、烘焙與餐飲，與宏亞禮坊的烘焙糕點、冷凍/烘焙供應鏈及伴手禮市場有部分競爭與上游重疊。
  • 美食達人股份有限公司 2723 台股上市櫃餐飲烘焙相關公司，旗下品牌以烘焙、咖啡與零售服務為主，與禮坊在糕點、禮盒與門市消費場景有間接競爭。
  • 義美食品股份有限公司 未上市公司；台灣大型食品品牌，產品涵蓋餅乾、巧克力、糕點、冷凍與飲品，與宏亞在休閒食品、禮盒與品牌信任度上高度競爭。
  • 郭元益食品股份有限公司 未上市公司；喜餅、糕餅與節慶禮盒品牌，與宏亞禮坊在婚嫁喜餅與伴手禮市場直接競爭。
  • 金格食品股份有限公司 未上市公司；長崎蛋糕、彌月、喜餅與禮盒品牌，與禮坊在節慶禮盒、婚禮與彌月市場競爭。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.