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1525

江申 Automobile As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 江申 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 63Quality 23Growth 73Momentum 55Chips 45

Is 江申 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 30th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -1.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 71th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 0.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 29.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.64
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 統一-台中 holds 873 lots
  • sellers have 7 lots left, ~20 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一-台中 has accumulated 873 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 統一-新台中 peaked at 78 lots, has sold 26%, 58 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.53pp, mid holders +0, retail -0.84pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -24 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一-台中元富-成功花旗環球富邦-嘉義統一-中壢台新-成功
Distributing
統一-新台中富邦-陽明摩根大通元大-金華兆豐-台中港元大-古亭
Desks
own scale
台新-建北中國信託-永康美林元富-吉利
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一-台中 +873
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-成功 +60
    sold 0%
  • 花旗環球 +30
    sold 21%
  • 富邦-嘉義 +29
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 統一-中壢 +28
    sold 0%
  • 台新-成功 +26
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 統一-新台中 58 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 富邦-陽明 5 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 6 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 元大-金華 6 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-台中港 1 left
    sold 89%· ~1 sessions to clear
  • 元大-古亭 2 left
    sold 71%· ~4 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台新-建北 -82
    unclassified
  • 中國信託-永康 -52
    unclassified
  • 美林 -41
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元富-吉利 -40
    unclassified
Still selling 7 lots ~20 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +77 absorbed / -17 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -5 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 29.38%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

60 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.4%, Sample 57, Median +1.22%, Excess +1.41%, Beat mkt rate 49.1%；60-day: Win 52.6%, Sample 57, Median +4.52%, Excess +5.36%, Beat mkt rate 45.6%；120-day: Win 46.4%, Sample 56, Median -1.52%, Excess +2.72%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

120 days after: historical avg +7.93%

20-day +2.61%
60-day +8.93%
120-day +7.93%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.4%
52.6%
46.4%
Sample
57
57
56
Median
+1.22%
+4.52%
-1.52%
Excess
+1.41%
+5.36%
+2.72%
Beat mkt rate
49.1%
45.6%
37.5%

Over 56 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.93%, beat the market by 2.72 pts; win rate 46.4%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

46 historical occurrences (since 2012-12-05)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 37.8%, Sample 45, Median -1.59%, Excess -2.07%, Beat mkt rate 26.7%；60-day: Win 40.9%, Sample 44, Median -2.56%, Excess -0.12%, Beat mkt rate 27.3%；120-day: Win 41.9%, Sample 43, Median -7.67%, Excess -2.79%, Beat mkt rate 37.2%

120 days after: historical avg +2.54%

20-day -0.77%
60-day +2.05%
120-day +2.54%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
37.8%
40.9%
41.9%
Sample
45
44
43
Median
-1.59%
-2.56%
-7.67%
Excess
-2.07%
-0.12%
-2.79%
Beat mkt rate
26.7%
27.3%
37.2%

Over 43 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.54%, lagged the market by 2.79 pts; win rate 41.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 245+20.9% -1.7% 47.3% +2.9%
20-40 370+12.8% -14.4% 41.6% -1.5%
40-60 606+11% +0.7% 51.8% +4%
60-80 886+15.6% +6.9% 56% -5.2%
80-100 You are here927+6.4% -0.5% 49.1% -12.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 41.06, at the 99.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-8.4%
Win rate 5.2% Excess -14.6%
58d
+4.4%
Win rate 48.2% Excess -7.7%
274d
Now
+8.1%
Win rate 49.3% Excess -2.1%
1057d
60-day momentum down
+7%
Win rate 41.7% Excess +0.3%
410d
+7.9%
Win rate 45% Excess +1.4%
794d
+2.7%
Win rate 43.3% Excess -4.6%
556d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1057 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 8.1%, win rate 49.3%, lagged the market by 2.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +14.96%, win rate 42.1%, beating the market by +13.12 pts on average.

What does 江申 do? Company profile

汽車工業／汽車零組件／商用車車架與鈑金零組件 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

江申工業股份有限公司，股票代號 1525，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司前身可追溯至 1955 年江申五金廠，1963 年 5 月 30 日設立公司，1978 年改為江申工業股份有限公司，1999 年 5 月正式上市。總部與主要廠區位於桃園市楊梅區新江路 100 號。2026 年 5 月法說會揭露資本額為新台幣 7.34 億元，土地面積約 19,000 坪、建物面積約 9,109 坪。2025 年股東會年報揭露截至 2025 年 3 月 31 日員工約 324 人；2024 年底約 332 人。董事長資料於公開資訊來源有時間差：2025 年股東會年報顯示 2025 年 4 月 1 日中華汽車代表人陳昭文解任並改派熊東台為董事，Goodinfo／玩股網等股市資料顯示董事長為熊東台；總經理為曾烱誌。主要股東依 2025 年股東會年報：中華汽車工業 43.87%、國瑞汽車 32.94%、江木山 2.91%、江立夫 2.40%、江雅品 1.06%、廖素鑾 1.04%、威泰投資 0.90%。2026 年 5 月法說會投資架構亦顯示中華汽車持股 43.9%、國瑞汽車 32.9%、一般投資者 23.2%。主要轉投資包括福州福享汽車工業、廣州恩梯恩裕隆傳動系統、襄陽恩梯恩裕隆傳動系統、廈門金龍江申車架等，並透過香港江申投資與 BVI 江申投資持有相關權益。

Business

江申是裕隆集團體系內重要商用車車架、載台、鈑金與底盤零件製造商，營業比重幾乎全部來自汽車相關零組件與模治具。主要產品包括卡車／巴士車架大樑、電動巴士車架、載台、木床後車身、底盤懸吊零件、Sub-Assy、沖壓模具、治具、鈑件與高張力鋼材加工。2024 年年報揭露製造及銷售汽車相關零組件及模具占營業比重 99%；2024 年主要銷售為載台 5.25 億元、車架 4.05 億元、零件 3.34 億元、電巴車架 0.95 億元、模治具 0.83 億元。2025 年前三季法說會顯示營收 9.01 億元，產品別為載台 38%、零件 19%、車架 18%、電巴車架 16%、模具 8%、其他 1%；電巴車架年增 216%、模具年增 144%，但傳統車架、零件與載台下滑。2026 年第一季法說會顯示營收 2.82 億元，主要產品為車架、電巴車架、載台、鈑金／懸吊零組件；主要客戶依 2026 年第一季營收占比為中華汽車 37%、國瑞汽車 32%、華德動能 10%、金龍汽車 9%、創奕能源 4%。商業模式以 OEM／ODM 與中心車廠衛星供應鏈為主，承接整車廠或電動巴士業者之車架、載台、底盤鈑金與模治具設計製造，並透過轉投資公司承接中國新能源車零部件、CVJ 傳動系統、電池箱與巴士車架等業務。公司年報稱車架屬寡占產品、木床市場占有率約 90%，但鈑金、底盤、懸吊零件競爭者較多。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司營運呈現傳統車架與載台偏弱、電巴車架與模具成長的產品轉型。2025 年前三季營收年減 17.2% 至 9.01 億元，但毛利率由 11.3% 升至 12.7%，公司說明係電巴車架與模具營收明顯成長、產品組合改善。2026 年第一季營收年增約 2% 至 2.82 億元，電巴車架營收年增 161%，傳統中大型車架恢復供貨，毛利率提升至 14.43%；稅後虧損 5,986 萬元主要因轉投資公司匯出累積保留盈餘而一次性認列所得稅費用，非本業惡化。2026 年成長動能包括：一、電動巴士車架，2025 年出貨約 600 台，2026 年計畫出貨 1,000 台以上，接單情形優於原訂目標，並評估由單班轉兩班制，但受限人力不足；二、輕量化板架，客戶期望 2026 年第 4 季出貨 100 台，日製新設備預計 2027 年初到位，短期需以傳統方式加工，導入後產量可逐步提升；三、Lean3／菱菱三等新載具產品，外部報導指出 2026 年第 4 季起試量產；四、福州福享取得 BMW 旗下主要車款全球電池箱項目，2026 年營運預估與 2025 年持平，但 2027 年起有望由專線生產帶動長期訂單增長；外部報導稱 BMW 電池箱將供應 X1、X2、X3 並含匈牙利廠需求，2027 年後可能明顯放量。2027 至 2028 年展望主要取決於電巴政策延續、產能與人力是否補足、輕量化板架設備導入與量產速度、福州福享 BMW 電池箱量產爬坡、廣州 NTN 外銷維持，以及台灣商用車需求。主要風險包括台灣車市規模有限、中心廠降價壓力、OEM 零件毛利下滑、電巴關鍵零件供應、人力與設備瓶頸、中國新能源車價格戰、人民幣匯率、關稅與地緣政治、環保法規成本與資安風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 裕器工業股份有限公司 2024 年年報列為主要供應商，2024 年進貨 1.269 億元、占進貨淨額 13%；裕隆集團關係企業，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 日本武部鐵工所 技術合作夥伴，協助大貨車與巴士車架相關技術；日本未上市或未確認台股掛牌。
  • 晝田工業株式會社 技術合作夥伴，提供前橫樑、懸吊鈑金零件、荷重臂、下臂、連桿等製造技術指導；日本公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 美和製作所 技術合作夥伴，提供井字樑與組合零件製造技術指導；日本公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 日本 NTN 江申轉投資廣州／襄陽 NTN 裕隆傳動系統之合資與技術相關夥伴；日本上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 鋼鐵、塑膠、橡膠、玻璃、機械、電機、電子等汽車零組件原材料與設備供應鏈 年報描述汽車產業上游涵蓋多類原料、零件與設備；個別供應商除裕器工業外未完整揭露。
Downstream
  • 中華汽車工業股份有限公司 2204 母公司與主要客戶；2024 年銷貨 5.262 億元、占 36%，2026 年第一季主要客戶占比 37%；應用於中華車商用車、電動車、載台、車架與零件。
  • 國瑞汽車股份有限公司 主要客戶與持股 32.9% 股東；2024 年銷貨 6.892 億元、占 47%，2026 年第一季主要客戶占比 32%；未上市公司，豐田／和泰汽車體系整車製造。
  • 華德動能科技股份有限公司 電動巴士客戶，2026 年第一季主要客戶占比 10%；為興櫃股票 2237，非上市櫃，故 stock_id 依規範填 null。
  • 金龍汽車／廈門金龍汽車集團 巴士與電巴車架相關客戶／合資夥伴，2026 年第一季主要客戶占比 9%；中國大陸企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 創奕能源科技股份有限公司 2026 年第一季主要客戶占比 4%；未上市櫃公司。
  • 鴻華先進科技股份有限公司 2258 電動巴士與 MIH 相關車架客戶，2025 年法說會列為主要客戶之一；臺灣證交所創新板上市公司。
  • 和泰汽車股份有限公司 2207 2025 年法說會列為主要客戶之一，相關產品含液壓尾門、鋁製後車身等開發案；台股上市公司。
  • BMW 透過轉投資福州福享取得 BMW 主要車款全球電池箱項目；德國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 寧德時代 外部報導稱福州福享受惠其新能源車電池訂單；中國上市公司，非台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • 瑞利企業股份有限公司 1512 台股上市汽車車身鈑金、模具與零組件廠；與江申在鈑金、車體件、模具等部分業務具同業比較性，但非商用車車架完全同質競爭。
  • 耿鼎企業股份有限公司 1524 台股上市汽車鈑金零件廠，以 AM 售後鈑金為主；與江申鈑金／沖壓零件業務有部分同業比較性。
  • 東陽實業廠股份有限公司 1319 台股上市汽車零組件大廠，主要為 AM／OEM 車身、塑膠、鈑金零件；在鈑金與車體件領域具同業比較性。
  • 英利-KY 2239 台股上市汽車零組件與車身結構件供應商，主要布局中國車廠供應鏈；與江申中國轉投資之車體件、結構件業務有部分競爭或比較性。
  • 廣華-KY 1338 台股上市汽車零組件公司，產品較偏內外飾件；屬汽車零組件同業，但與江申商用車架直接重疊度有限。
  • 協欣金屬工業股份有限公司 汽車鈑金、沖壓與模具相關同業，未確認為台股上市櫃公司，故 stock_id 填 null。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.