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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1569 濱川. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1569
1569
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 濱川 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 15th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -3.1%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 96th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.4% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 台新-高雄 has accumulated 949 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 永豐金-屏東 peaked at 819 lots, has sold 34%, 539 left, ~200 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +4.59pp, mid holders -1, retail -3.47pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,315 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 台新-高雄 +949
- 元大-北屯 +654
- 玉山-高雄 +514
- 台灣企銀-九如 +397
- 第一金-安和 +283
- 元大-三民 +273
Distributing
- 永豐金-屏東 539 left
- 摩根大通 288 left
- 台灣摩根士丹利 274 left
- 統一-松江 383 left
- 新加坡商瑞銀 234 left
- 合庫-高雄 145 left
Desks
- 統一 -1,273
- 美商高盛 -690
- 統一-士林 -565
- 凱基-市政 -435
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 645 | -1.8% | -3.2% | 40.9% | -11.6% |
| 20-40 | 172 | -28.7% | -41.6% | 19.8% | -35.2% |
| 40-60 | 183 | +2.5% | -17.7% | 39.9% | -17.1% |
| 60-80 | 308 | +29.4% | +29% | 80.5% | -10.4% |
| 80-100 You are here | 267 | +31.8% | +30.7% | 95.5% | +6.8% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 155.56, at the 99.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 223 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.9%, win rate 56.5%, lagged the market by 2.6%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
22 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.53%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +12.01 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.51%, win rate 49.1%, beating the market by +4.03 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.6%, win rate 50.9%, beating the market by -0.34 pts on average.
What does 濱川 do? Company profile
Overview
1569 對應證券為濱川，市場別為上櫃普通股。公司成立於1983/03/30，掛牌日期為2005/07/29，總部位於高雄市大寮區大發工業區興業路2號。董事長為蕭欽銘，總經理為蕭欽群，發言人為李璠。Yahoo 股市資料顯示股本為新台幣1,442,474,410元，已發行普通股數144,247,441股，簽證會計師為勤業眾信聯合會計師事務所，股務代理為富邦綜合證券。董監持股比例資料來源顯示約16.78%，另市場文章提及蕭欽銘、蕭欽群與家族及投資公司持股具一定集中度，但前十大股東完整名單與最新持股比例需以公開資訊觀測站年報及股東名冊為準。公司早期為專業金屬沖壓廠，初期生產音響菱形網、喇叭支架，後以沖壓、連續模、CNC切磨、模具開發與表面處理能力跨入NB鍵盤支架、光碟機及MFP內部機構件。主要生產基地依MoneyDJ整理包括高雄大寮、中國蘇州、重慶、馬來西亞、泰國等地；員工規模未能由官方頁面直接確認，市場資料曾估約3,000人，列為未確認資訊。
Business
公司主要經營資訊週邊產品，包括NB金屬機殼及鍵盤、印表機及LCD機構件；消費性電子產品，包括家庭劇院、環繞式音響及DVD機構件；以及相關模具開發。MoneyDJ依公司法說會整理之2024年營收比重為：筆電及平板電腦金屬機殼約75%，筆電鍵盤金屬支架約20%。StockFeel整理則列筆電及平板電腦金屬機殼約75.1%、筆電鍵盤金屬支架約20%、其他約4.9%。主要商業模式為承接品牌或模組廠規格，提供金屬外觀件、內部機構件、沖壓件、CNC加工件、表面處理與模具開發，產品多為外銷並分布於亞洲地區。下游應用包括筆記型電腦、平板電腦、3C產品、印表機、LCD、音響、醫療手術器材，以及公司近年規劃的自動化設備零組件、機械手臂與AI伺服器水冷散熱相關產品。新聞報導曾指出濱川供應Mac鍵盤支架相關零組件予精元，再由精元組裝供應蘋果；公司本身通常不評論單一客戶訂單，因此Apple／美系客戶資訊應視為媒體與市場推估。2025年全年依年報摘要，合併營收為3,258,899仟元，稅後淨損674,029仟元，歸屬母公司業主稅後淨損704,221仟元，EPS為-5.61元，顯示仍處虧損與產品轉型期。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028展望重點在轉型能否由傳統筆電機構件延伸至高附加價值應用。2025年實際營收較2024年增加至32.58899億元，但毛利轉負且EPS為-5.61元，顯示新產品與產能調整尚未完全抵銷傳統筆電機構件價格、稼動率與競爭壓力。公司在2026年度營業計畫中明確表示產品面將著重自動化設備零組件、醫療手術器材、機械手臂與AI伺服器水冷散熱相關產品，例如分歧管Manifold與快接頭Quick Disconnect；生產面則持續提高自動化比重、提升良率、降低生產成本、更新設備並強化競爭力。2026至2028的成長動能可來自三項：第一，AI/HPC伺服器液冷滲透率提升，若濱川以精密金屬加工、表面處理與量產能力切入Manifold、快接頭或其他水冷零組件，可能改善產品組合；第二，醫療手術器材、工業自動化與機械手臂零組件屬較高規格市場，有機會分散筆電單一景氣循環；第三，公司過去資本支出與產能擴充已達規模化，若稼動率回升，單位成本與毛利率可能改善。主要風險包括：AI水冷產品是否已穩定量產與取得客戶採用尚未有足夠公開數字驗證；傳統筆電與平板金屬機殼需求仍受PC換機週期、品牌庫存與消費景氣影響；中國、東南亞及台灣同業在模具沖壓與機構件價格競爭激烈；新台幣匯率、鋁材與不鏽鋼等原料價格、通膨與區域競爭會影響成本；若新產品開發、認證、良率或客戶導入不如預期，虧損可能延續。整體而言，2025-2028可定位為由筆電金屬機構件向AI水冷、醫療與自動化零組件轉型的驗證期，而非已確認的高速成長期。
Supply Chain
- 鋁材供應商 主要原料之一；MoneyDJ整理公司重要原物料包括鋁材，但未揭露特定供應商名稱。
- 不鏽鋼供應商 主要原料之一；MoneyDJ整理公司重要原物料包括不鏽鋼，但未揭露特定供應商名稱。
- NB配件與模具／加工設備供應商 主要投入包括NB配件、模具、CNC與自動化加工設備；公開資料未能確認具名供應商。
- 精元電腦股份有限公司 2387 媒體報導指出濱川曾將Mac鍵盤支架等零組件出貨給精元，再由精元組裝供應蘋果；此為媒體報導資訊，公司通常不評論單一客戶訂單。
- Apple Inc. 美國上市公司；市場與媒體長期將濱川視為MacBook相關金屬機構件供應鏈之一，但公司未正式揭露單一終端客戶。
- 美系筆電品牌客戶 市場文章稱A客戶或美系客戶對濱川營收貢獻高，疑似與Apple相關；未由公司正式具名確認。
- 亞洲地區品牌／模組／組裝客戶 MoneyDJ整理公司客戶大多為知名廠商，產品多為外銷並分布於亞洲地區；未揭露完整客戶名單。
Competitors
- 鴻準精密工業股份有限公司 2354 StockFeel列為機殼相關競爭對手；台股上市公司。
- 可成科技股份有限公司 2474 StockFeel列為機殼相關競爭對手；台股上市公司。
- 神基投資控股股份有限公司 3005 StockFeel列為機殼相關競爭對手；台股上市公司。
- 晟銘電子科技股份有限公司 3013 StockFeel列為機殼相關競爭對手；台股上市公司。
- 鉅祥企業股份有限公司 2476 MoneyDJ列為模具沖壓國內競爭者之一；台股上市公司，業務含連續沖壓精密金屬零件與模具。
- 嘉彰股份有限公司 4942 MoneyDJ列為模具沖壓國內競爭者之一；台股上市公司。
- 同協電子股份有限公司 5460 MoneyDJ列為模具沖壓國內競爭者之一；台股上櫃公司。
- 欣厚科技股份有限公司 MoneyDJ列為模具沖壓國內競爭者之一；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
- Allied Tech MoneyDJ列為國外競爭廠商；非台股上市櫃公司。
- CSMETAL MoneyDJ列為國外競爭廠商；非台股上市櫃公司。
- TKR MoneyDJ列為國外競爭廠商；非台股上市櫃公司。
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.