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2049

上銀 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 上銀 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 26Quality 53Growth 72Momentum 81Chips 55

Is 上銀 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 62th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.5%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 84th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 93th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 28.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.71
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 8,321 lots
  • sellers have 11,757 lots left, ~200 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +41% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 8,321 lots since the start (sold 9%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 10,609 lots, has sold 42%, 6,139 left, ~88 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +7.76pp, mid holders +6, retail -6.81pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -514 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利凱基-台北新加坡商瑞銀元大證券花旗環球
Distributing
美商高盛富邦證券國泰證券港商野村統一華南永昌
Desks
own scale
中國信託國票-敦北法人元富臺銀
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +8,321
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +5,978
    sold 17%
  • 凱基-台北 +5,802
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +3,575
    sold 14%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +3,198
    sold 18%
  • 花旗環球 +2,949
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 6,139 left
    sold 42%· ~88 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 2,075 left
    sold 42%· ~189 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 2,276 left
    sold 30%· ~200 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 1,043 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 統一 417 left
    sold 53%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌 363 left
    sold 58%· ~8 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 中國信託 -2,645
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -2,252
    unclassified
  • 元富 -1,327
    unclassified
  • 臺銀 -1,184
    unclassified
Still selling 11,757 lots ~200 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,507 absorbed / -1,946 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -396 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 28.17%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

84 historical occurrences (since 2009-06-26)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.9%, Sample 82, Median +1.06%, Excess +3.09%, Beat mkt rate 59.8%；60-day: Win 63%, Sample 81, Median +6.99%, Excess +9.44%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；120-day: Win 54.3%, Sample 81, Median +10%, Excess +16.07%, Beat mkt rate 53.1%

120 days after: historical avg +19.42%

20-day +4.1%
60-day +11.75%
120-day +19.42%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.9%
63%
54.3%
Sample
82
81
81
Median
+1.06%
+6.99%
+10%
Excess
+3.09%
+9.44%
+16.07%
Beat mkt rate
59.8%
55.6%
53.1%

Over 81 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 19.42%, beat the market by 16.07 pts; win rate 54.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 548+14.1% +16.2% 74.6% -2.3%
20-40 444+0.1% -0.1% 49.8% -15.9%
40-60 376-9.4% -28% 37% -14.1%
60-80 608+18.5% +15.8% 65.8% -2.3%
80-100 You are here1061+17.3% +1.3% 51.6% -1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 70.59, at the 93.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-1.6%
Win rate 44.6% Excess -7.7%
287d
-7.5%
Win rate 39.5% Excess -11.8%
228d
Now
+9.7%
Win rate 56.7% Excess -0.4%
1113d
60-day momentum down
+3.5%
Win rate 57.3% Excess -0.7%
524d
-3.4%
Win rate 34.5% Excess -7.9%
531d
+21.2%
Win rate 70.7% Excess +4.4%
474d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1113 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.7%, win rate 56.7%, lagged the market by 0.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.51%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +10.47 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.05%, win rate 50.8%, beating the market by -2.52 pts on average.

What does 上銀 do? Company profile

電機機械；精密傳動控制元件、機器人與自動化次系統 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2049 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，上銀科技股份有限公司，英文名 HIWIN TECHNOLOGIES CORP.。公司成立於 1989/10/11，上市日期為 2009/06/26，總部位於台中市南屯區文山里精科路 7 號。依公開資訊與股市資料，董事長為卓文恒，總經理為蔡惠卿，發言人為廖克皇；實收資本額約新台幣 35.38 億元，已發行普通股約 353,792,240 股。2024 年報揭露截至 2025/03/31 集團員工合計 6,268 人，2024 年底 6,352 人。公司主要經營業務為機械設備製造、其他機械製造及發電、輸電、配電機械製造相關業務。主要股東與經營團隊持股方面，年報與公開資料揭露創辦人/總裁卓永財、董事長卓文恒、總經理蔡惠卿、董事李訓欽、三幸投資等為重要董監經理人或法人股東；法人股東三幸投資主要股東為黃靖貽、黃一倉、黃筱瑜各 33.33%。公司以自有品牌 HIWIN 行銷全球，在台灣、德國、中國、日本、美國等地銷售，並設有歐美日中等海外子公司或據點。2024 年合併營收為新台幣 243.92 億元，年減約 1%；2025 年合併營收據 2026 年股東會新聞為新台幣 242.63 億元，年減 0.53%，每股稅後純益 4.31 元，股東會通過配發每股 2 元現金股利。

Business

上銀是精密傳動控制元件與機電整合解決方案供應商，核心產品為線性滑軌與滾珠螺桿，並延伸至機器人、Torque Motor 迴轉工作台、諧波減速機、精密軸承、晶圓移載系統、晶圓機器手臂、晶圓尋邊器、晶圓裝卸機 Load Port、單軸機器人、關節式與 SCARA 機器手臂、電動夾爪、下肢復健機器人等。2024 年營收結構依公司年報為：線性滑軌 64%、滾珠螺桿 20%、機器人 7%、其他 9%。主要應用產業包括工具機、產業機械、半導體及光電製造與檢測設備、自動化設備、電子設備、生命科學與醫療設備、航太、新能源與智慧製造。商業模式以自有品牌、全球直銷/經銷與在地服務據點銷售高精密標準品、客製品、模組與系統整合方案；高階客戶通常需要長期驗證、Design-In 與早期供應商參與，因此客戶黏著度與品質認證是競爭關鍵。2024 年報揭露 2023 年有甲、乙兩名客戶分別占銷貨 13.7%、12.8%，2024 年仍有甲客戶占銷貨 10% 以上但公司未公開客戶名稱；年報亦稱半導體晶圓自動化次系統及設備已被多家指標客戶採用，整合於半導體製程及先進封裝製程。銷售區域以台灣、中國、德國、美國、日本與其他地區為主，2024 年營運地點銷售金額中台灣約 110.04 億元、中國約 50.79 億元、德國約 38.60 億元、美國約 11.65 億元、日本約 8.76 億元、其他約 24.07 億元。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能預期來自半導體先進製程/先進封裝、自動化與 AI 機器人、高階多軸工具機、新能源與智慧製造。公司 2024 年報對 2025 年規劃滾珠螺桿銷售量 2,400-2,600 千支、線性滑軌 33,000-36,000 千支，並列出推動智慧製造、深化 Total Solution、擴大全球市場布局、投入低碳產品與 ESG、強化供應鏈管理等方向。年報亦指出雲科三廠、台中工業區一廠、新加坡子公司新廠已陸續落成啟用，義大利子公司新廠與台中工業區二廠預計 2025 年竣工，德國子公司收購捷克孫公司並設立法國孫公司，作為中長期量能與在地服務布局。近期 2026 年公開新聞顯示，2025 年機器人營收占比約 10%，2026 年第一季升至 12%；受半導體與 AI 相關設備需求推升，滾珠螺桿交期約 4.5 至 5 個月、線性滑軌約 3.5 至 4 個月，公司已增班與擴充人力，並自 2026 年 3 月起對部分產品漲價，漲價效益預期數月後反映於毛利。公司展出八軸雙臂物流機器人、人形機器人核心模組，並與 Qualcomm 在 PLP 設備智慧化方案合作，將邊緣 AI 導入 Load Port 與晶圓移載系統；晶圓機器人、EFEM、Load Port、Wafer Aligner 與先進封裝設備合作開發，是 2026-2028 年較具結構性成長的方向。風險包括全球製造業循環、工具機需求疲弱、中國與韓國低價競爭、ECFA/關稅與貿易保護、匯率波動、鋼材與能源成本上升、半導體客戶量產時程不確定、新產品產能與人才供給不足、系統整合商夥伴開發難度、地緣政治與全球供應鏈重組。2027-2028 年營收與獲利能見度仍取決於先進封裝、AI 機器人與海外在地化產能放量進度，未見公司發布明確財測，因此中長期數字不宜推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鋼材供應商群 年報揭露主要原料為鋼材，供應來源包括台灣、日本、德國、韓國且供應情形良好；公司未揭露 2024 年進貨總額 10% 以上供應商名稱。
  • 鋼珠供應商群 年報產業鏈揭露上游原料包含鋼珠，為滾珠螺桿與線性滑軌關鍵材料；未公開具名供應商。
  • 中鋼 2002 台灣上市鋼鐵公司；歷史新聞曾報導中鋼與上銀討論鋼材缺料因應，屬可能/歷史性鋼材供應關係，非公司 2024 年報具名供應商。
  • 大銀微系統 4576 上銀集團關係企業，提供直驅馬達、伺服驅動、控制器與奈米定位平台等運動控制技術，與上銀機電整合方案具互補關係。
Downstream
  • 半導體設備與晶圓廠供應鏈客戶 下游應用包含晶圓機器人、EFEM、Load Port、Wafer Aligner、先進封裝/PLP 設備；公司稱已被多家指標客戶採用，但未公開客戶名稱。
  • 工具機與高階多軸加工設備廠 線性滑軌、滾珠螺桿、Torque Motor 迴轉工作台、UR 超負荷滾柱線性滑軌用於高階五軸、複合加工機與一般工具機；具名客戶未公開。
  • 自動化、物流與 AI 機器人系統客戶 下游包括工業機器人、物流專用型機器人、人形機器人關鍵零組件、機器狗供應鏈等；近期新聞稱已有小批量出貨與開發合作，但客戶多未具名。
  • 醫療與復健設備市場 下肢復健機器人與智慧醫療設備為下游應用之一，受高齡化、復健需求與醫療自動化驅動。

Competitors

  • 全球傳動科技股份有限公司 4540 台灣上市傳動元件廠，品牌 TBI MOTION，產品包含線性滑軌、滾珠螺桿、滾珠花鍵、旋轉系列與單軸機器人，為國內直接同業。
  • 銀泰科技股份有限公司 台灣未上市公司，品牌 PMI，主要生產滾珠螺桿、線性滑軌、精密螺桿花鍵、滾珠花鍵、致動器與交叉滾柱軸承。
  • THK 日本上市公司，全球線性運動導軌與精密傳動元件大廠，為上銀在高階線性滑軌/滾珠螺桿市場的主要國際競爭者。
  • NSK 日本上市公司，軸承、滾珠螺桿與精密機械產品供應商，為國際同業。
  • Bosch Rexroth 德國 Bosch 集團旗下工業自動化與線性傳動品牌，非台股掛牌，為歐系高階傳動與自動化解決方案競爭者。
  • FANUC 日本上市工業機器人與 CNC 大廠；在工業機器人、智慧製造與自動化系統領域與上銀機器人業務部分競爭。
  • Yaskawa Electric 日本上市機器人與運動控制大廠；在機器手臂、伺服與自動化系統領域為國際競爭者。
  • ABB Robotics 瑞士/瑞典 ABB 集團旗下機器人業務，非台股掛牌，為工業機器人與自動化解決方案競爭者。
  • KUKA 德國工業機器人品牌，現屬美的集團體系，非台股掛牌，為機器人與智慧工廠解決方案競爭者。
  • 中國與韓國低價線性傳動品牌 公司年報指出低階市場出現中國、韓國低價產品以價差搶單，對直線傳動產品造成價格壓力；未具名。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.