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2406

國碩 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 國碩 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 13Quality 68Growth 93Momentum 62Chips 58

Is 國碩 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 63th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 91th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.4% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 121.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.75
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 17,905 lots
  • sellers have 2,349 lots left, ~31 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +18% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 17,905 lots since the start (sold 21%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 國票-長城 peaked at 3,954 lots, has sold 29%, 2,803 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.89pp, mid holders -8, retail -2.24pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -9,762 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀摩根大通富邦證券元大-新竹富邦-和美永豐金證券
Distributing
國票-長城美林第一金-自由元大-竹科國票-北高雄國票-中和
Desks
own scale
兆豐-新竹台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛台新證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +17,905
    sold 21%
  • 摩根大通 +9,706
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +5,776
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 元大-新竹 +1,054
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-和美 +685
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金證券 +640
    sold 19%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國票-長城 2,803 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 美林 950 left
    sold 75%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-自由 222 left
    sold 88%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 元大-竹科 242 left
    sold 84%· ~31 sessions to clear
  • 國票-北高雄 510 left
    sold 66%· paused recently
  • 國票-中和 210 left
    sold 83%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-新竹 -6,067
    unclassified
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -4,453
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -2,271
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台新證券 -1,835
    unclassified
Still selling 2,349 lots ~31 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +10,771 absorbed / -4,863 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -7,118 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

23 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-20)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 63.6%, Sample 22, Median +9.27%, Excess +9.02%, Beat mkt rate 63.6%；60-day: Win 59.1%, Sample 22, Median +3.5%, Excess +15.33%, Beat mkt rate 54.5%；120-day: Win 65%, Sample 20, Median +25.92%, Excess +21.18%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +31.25%

20-day +10.23%
60-day +21.78%
120-day +31.25%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
63.6%
59.1%
65%
Sample
22
22
20
Median
+9.27%
+3.5%
+25.92%
Excess
+9.02%
+15.33%
+21.18%
Beat mkt rate
63.6%
54.5%
50%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 31.25%, beat the market by 21.18 pts; win rate 65%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 121.19%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

88 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.5%, Sample 80, Median -0.63%, Excess +1.14%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%；60-day: Win 42.3%, Sample 78, Median -4.19%, Excess +2.62%, Beat mkt rate 35.9%；120-day: Win 38.7%, Sample 75, Median -8.69%, Excess -4.59%, Beat mkt rate 30.7%

120 days after: historical avg +3.65%

20-day +3%
60-day +8.03%
120-day +3.65%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.5%
42.3%
38.7%
Sample
80
78
75
Median
-0.63%
-4.19%
-8.69%
Excess
+1.14%
+2.62%
-4.59%
Beat mkt rate
37.5%
35.9%
30.7%

Over 75 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.65%, lagged the market by 4.59 pts; win rate 38.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 43-2.8% -30.5% 14% -125.8%
20-40 51+51.5% +16.6% 54.9% -36.4%
40-60 66-13.5% -17.4% 48.5% -93.1%
60-80 144-39.2% -35.3% 2.1% -131%
80-100 You are here116-10.7% -12.1% 25.9% -55%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 223.89, at the 91.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(1d)
+2.6%
Win rate 71.3% Excess -24.3%
101d
-13.4%
Win rate 44.4% Excess -53.1%
153d
60-day momentum down
+51.4%
Win rate 72.2% Excess +22.8%
90d
-5%
Win rate 53.3% Excess -23.8%
90d
Now
-17.2%
Win rate 7.6% Excess -52.5%
105d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 105 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 17.2%, win rate 7.6%, lagged the market by 52.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.24%, win rate 41.7%, beating the market by -3.35 pts on average.

What does 國碩 do? Company profile

光電業 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2406 對應證券為國碩科技工業股份有限公司，為臺灣證券交易所上市之普通股，非 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司成立於 1997-03-26，2000-04-29 掛牌上市，總部位於新竹縣湖口鄉新竹產業園區工業一路 3 號。官方公司基本資料揭露資本額為新台幣 3,509,056,890 元；董事長為陳繼明，總經理為鍾高原，發言人為陳繼明，股務代理為台新綜合證券股務代理部，簽證會計師事務所為勤業眾信聯合會計師事務所。2024 年報揭露 2024 年底員工人數 423 人，截至 2025-04-30 為 405 人，平均年齡約 42.98 歲、平均服務年資約 10.25 年。年報董事持股資料顯示，陳繼明持股約 3.72%，陳素惠約 2.57%，陳敏敏約 0.93%；年報另揭露法人股東之主要股東為無，但未在可查資料中取得完整前十大股東名單。公司歷史沿革指出，初期技術團隊來自工研院材料所，具無機材料、有機材料、光電工程、鍍膜與製程技術背景；公司已由早期光碟片與太陽能矽晶相關業務，轉向太陽能導電銲帶、太陽能導電漿料、太陽能電廠工程與售電、低溫特用材料、半導體矽晶圓及鍍膜加工等材料與能源應用。

Business

國碩目前為光電材料與再生能源系統服務公司。官方主要業務為導電銲帶之研發、製造及銷售、太陽能電廠工程服務、太陽能電廠發電及售電。2024 年報揭露集團主要產品包括：太陽能導電漿料、太陽能導電銲帶、太陽光電發電系統及電廠工程、太陽能等級多晶矽原料、矽晶圓用鑽石披覆微徑切割鋼線、鋰動力電池正負極材料研究、低溫固材產品、8 吋與 12 吋測試級半導體矽晶圓，以及 PCB/IC 載板微型刀具物理氣相鍍膜加工。年報產品結構顯示，2024 年太陽能導電漿占營收 85.53%，太陽能矽晶產品占 0.80%，售電及電廠工程占 6.47%；其餘為導電銲帶、低溫特用材料、半導體與鍍膜等相關收入。商業模式可分為三類：一是材料製造，向太陽能電池與模組產業供應導電漿、導電銲帶及其他材料；二是太陽能電廠 EPC、發電與售電，提供評估、設計、送件、建置、設備登記與售電作業；三是以低溫固化膠、生醫感測材料、功率半導體散熱材料、測試級矽晶圓與刀具鍍膜等延伸材料技術服務電子、半導體、生醫與能源市場。年報揭露 2024 年前兩大進貨對象以代號 E 公司、S 公司匿名揭露，合計占進貨淨額 78.37%；銷貨方面 AA 公司占 31.25%、AC 公司占 11.97%，但客戶名稱亦以代號匿名揭露，因此無法確認具名客戶。下游應用包括太陽能電池、太陽能模組、太陽能電站、綠電與憑證需求、LED、觸控面板、被動元件、生醫感測試片、功率半導體、高效能運算與 AI 伺服器散熱、車用電子、PCB/IC 載板微型刀具等。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以官方 2024 年報、2026 年已公告月營收與產業趨勢推估。2025 年官方營運計畫指出，公司將持續投入國內電廠工程服務及太陽能導電銲帶銷售，並配合臺灣 2050 淨零路徑、2025 年太陽光電裝置量 20GW、2030 年前逐年增加至 30GW 的政策方向，提升電廠工程、儲能系統與售電市場營收占比。產品面，M10 TOPCon 模組用圓型焊帶已量產並穩定出貨，客戶產品型別預計於 2025 年第 2 季全面轉向 M10 TOPCon，M6 PERC 逐步退出；0BB TOPCon 產品仍在客戶測試與認證階段，年報預期 2026 年第 2 季開始小量出貨。材料面，子公司碩禾電材將持續發展 N 型 TOPCon 高效太陽能導電漿，拓展一線大廠客戶；但中國太陽能產能過剩、導電漿料削價競爭與銀粉等原料成本波動將壓抑毛利率。能源服務面，公司已耕耘太陽能電站多年，未來儲能系統、售電、微電網、綠電與憑證需求可成為較穩定收入來源，但受到政策、併網容量、電網調度、利率與資本支出壓力影響。2026 至 2028 年的可觀察成長動能包括：0BB TOPCon 導電銲帶商業化放量、N 型導電漿滲透率提升、臺灣企業 RE100 與減碳帶動綠電採購、儲能與售電市場發展、低溫固化材料切入 AI/HPC/車用電子散熱、生醫感測材料、12 吋測試級矽晶圓與矽中介層製程開發。主要風險包括：中國太陽能供應鏈價格競爭、模組與電池片技術迭代速度快、銀粉與金屬原料採購集中、單一大客戶銷售集中、外銷匯率波動、臺灣能源政策與躉購/售電制度變動、儲能與電廠案場開發進度不確定、半導體與散熱新產品認證週期長。公司 2026 年 1 至 5 月官方月營收合計約新台幣 47.38 億元、年增 152.02%，顯示短期營收動能明顯回升，但獲利能否同步改善仍取決於導電漿與導電銲帶毛利率、銀價與產品組合。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 碩禾電子材料股份有限公司 3691 國碩集團重要轉投資與合併營收來源之一，主要產品為太陽能導電漿，屬太陽能電池上游關鍵材料；同時也是國碩集團太陽能材料布局核心，非單純外部供應商。
  • 華旭矽材股份有限公司 國碩集團關係企業，跨足半導體矽晶圓、鑽石線與相關材料；未查得台股上市櫃代號，視為未上市櫃關係企業。
  • 禾米特用材料股份有限公司 國碩集團關係企業，聚焦低溫特用材料與客製化材料；未查得台股上市櫃代號，視為未上市櫃關係企業。
  • 金屬粉末、溶劑、樹脂及添加物供應商 2024 年報僅以 A、B、C、D、E、F、G、H、S、L、M、N、O、P 公司匿名揭露供應來源，且供應情形為良好；無法確認具名公司與是否台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 台灣電力股份有限公司 太陽能電廠發電與售電業務的制度性購電/併網對象之一；台電為國營事業，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 太陽能電池與模組製造商 導電漿與導電銲帶主要下游客戶類型。2024 年報以 AA、AC、AB、E、D 公司代號揭露主要銷貨客戶，未揭露具名客戶，故不列特定公司為已確認客戶。
  • 企業綠電與再生能源憑證需求者 售電與儲能服務的潛在下游，需求來自企業減碳、RE100 與綠電憑證；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。
  • LED、觸控面板、被動元件、生醫感測、功率半導體與 AI/HPC 散熱應用客戶 低溫固化膠、生醫感測材料、導熱材料與微尺寸散熱元件的下游應用領域；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。

Competitors

  • 元晶太陽能科技股份有限公司 6443 台股上市太陽能電池與模組廠，與國碩在太陽能產業鏈及電站/模組應用市場有部分重疊；不代表為國碩直接客戶。
  • 茂迪股份有限公司 6244 台股上市太陽能電池、模組與系統廠，屬臺灣太陽能產業鏈競爭與合作生態成員。
  • 聯合再生能源股份有限公司 3576 台股上市太陽能電池、模組與系統廠，與國碩下游電站、模組與太陽能材料應用市場相關。
  • 安集科技股份有限公司 6477 台股上櫃太陽能模組與系統/EPC 業者，與國碩太陽能電廠工程、系統服務及售電布局有部分競爭。
  • 森崴能源股份有限公司 6806 台股上市能源服務、綠電與工程業者，與國碩在電廠工程、能源服務、儲能與售電市場有競爭關係。
  • 雲豹能源科技股份有限公司 6869 台股上市再生能源開發、售電與儲能服務業者，與國碩能源布局方向相近。
  • DuPont 美國上市公司，太陽能導電漿與電子材料國際競爭者；國碩年報提及碩禾與杜邦有太陽能導電漿相關非專屬專利授權。
  • Heraeus 德國未上市集團，為太陽能導電漿等貴金屬電子材料國際供應商，屬國際競爭者。
  • 帝科股份 中國 A 股上市之太陽能導電銀漿供應商，非台股掛牌，屬導電漿材料競爭者。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.