Skip to main content
Free trial

Ask AI to review this stock

Copy the prompt to get recent events, historical reactions, and a short research brief.

Tell your AI:

Help me set up FinLab and analyze 2537 聯上發. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=2537

No install, open FinLab Studio

2537

聯上發 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 聯上發 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 45Quality 67Growth 94Momentum 56Chips 19

Is 聯上發 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 72th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 68th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 81th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 128.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.92
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 元大-敦化 holds 5,096 lots
  • sellers have 1,094 lots left, ~23 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +11% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-敦化 has accumulated 5,096 lots since the start (sold 6%), holding.
  • Main distributor 國票-長城 peaked at 1,435 lots, has sold 42%, 835 left, ~23 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +6.27pp, mid holders -9, retail -3.45pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,498 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-敦化凱基-永華永豐金證券臺銀-臺南永豐金-台南台新-大裕
Distributing
國票-長城凱基-台北凱基-中港群益金鼎-三重港商野村富邦-樹林
Desks
own scale
兆豐-大同凱基-中山台灣摩根士丹利國泰-敦南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-敦化 +5,096
    sold 6%
  • 凱基-永華 +4,066
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金證券 +2,345
    sold 2%
  • 臺銀-臺南 +2,153
    sold 1%
  • 永豐金-台南 +1,577
    sold 1%
  • 台新-大裕 +963
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 國票-長城 835 left
    sold 42%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 469 left
    sold 53%· paused recently
  • 凱基-中港 173 left
    sold 80%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎-三重 116 left
    sold 78%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 148 left
    sold 63%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-樹林 132 left
    sold 59%· paused recently

Desks

  • 兆豐-大同 -2,674
    unclassified
  • 凱基-中山 -1,073
    unclassified
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -1,060
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國泰-敦南 -825
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 1,094 lots ~23 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,962 absorbed / -702 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,566 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 128.48%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

127 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 45.4%, Sample 119, Median -0.48%, Excess +0.57%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；60-day: Win 45.3%, Sample 117, Median -1.18%, Excess +0.47%, Beat mkt rate 39.3%；120-day: Win 46.5%, Sample 114, Median -1.8%, Excess +0.75%, Beat mkt rate 37.7%

120 days after: historical avg +5.55%

20-day +1.08%
60-day +3.3%
120-day +5.55%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45.4%
45.3%
46.5%
Sample
119
117
114
Median
-0.48%
-1.18%
-1.8%
Excess
+0.57%
+0.47%
+0.75%
Beat mkt rate
46.2%
39.3%
37.7%

Over 114 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.55%, beat the market by 0.75 pts; win rate 46.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 293+1.3% -8.9% 23.5% -30.5%
20-40 391+6.5% -17% 21.5% -14.8%
40-60 638+0.2% -17.4% 33.9% -14.8%
60-80 319+4.7% -8.1% 36.7% -15.8%
80-100 You are here396+24.9% +24.7% 95.7% -26.5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 37.5, at the 80.6th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-5.6%
Win rate 28.5% Excess -15.4%
214d
+2.3%
Win rate 38.4% Excess -5.6%
346d
Now
+18.3%
Win rate 72.8% Excess +1.4%
173d
60-day momentum down
-8.1%
Win rate 11.9% Excess -15.9%
412d
+10.3%
Win rate 32.8% Excess -4%
574d
+10.2%
Win rate 56.8% Excess -11.2%
438d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 173 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 18.3%, win rate 72.8%, beat the market by 1.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.86%, win rate 70%, beating the market by +7.17 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

60 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.67%, win rate 34.5%, beating the market by -5.39 pts on average.

What does 聯上發 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建類股／不動產開發 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2537 對應證券為聯上開發股份有限公司，股票簡稱「聯上發」，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於1987年8月19日，掛牌上市日期為1996年9月6日；總部位於台北市信義區忠孝東路五段68號36樓。董事長為蘇永義，總經理及發言人為李志明。Yahoo股市資料顯示股本為新台幣3,005,577,950元，已發行普通股300,557,795股；公司法說簡報列示資本額約新台幣30.05億元。2024年年報列示截至2025年3月31日員工合計33人，2024年底員工35人。主要股東方面，2024年年報列示截至2025年4月27日前十大股東中，聯上投資持股59,505,702股、持股比率19.80%，聯景投資持股29,855,796股、持股比率9.93%，聯捷建設持股9,122,546股、持股比率3.04%；年報並揭露聯上投資、聯景投資、聯捷建設、聯立建設、美力營造等彼此具董事長、負責人或親屬關係。最近年度財報簽證會計師事務所為安侯建業聯合會計師事務所，股務代理為元大證券。

Business

聯上發核心業務為不動產開發，主要從事住宅及商辦大樓開發、銷售、出租，不動產買賣與租賃；公司2024年年報揭露2024年度營業比重為出售房地業務99.57%、其他收入0.43%。商業模式是取得或整合土地，委託建築師規劃設計，申請建照，透過預售與成屋銷售回收資金，並委託專業營造廠施工；案源取得方式包含自地自建、購地、合建分售、都市更新、危老重建及公辦都更。2024年營收新台幣22.13711億元，主要來自台北市、新北市及桃園市個案交屋入帳；公司年報說明2024年主要認列桃園市「聯上淳」、新北市「聯上拾玉」交屋，並持續銷售台北市「聯上天母」。2025年法說資料顯示2025上半年營收4.33億元，主要來自「聯上拾玉」部分交屋及「聯上天母」成屋銷售；截至2025年法說，成屋銷售個案包括「聯上世界」、「聯上聯」店面與「聯上天母」住宅產品，可售金額約10.8億元；已推預售案包括「聯上大喜」、「聯上光域」、「聯上琚川」、「聯上澐朗」，銷售率分別約92%、91%、86%、80%。主要終端客戶以自住、換屋、投資型住宅買方及商辦、店面、廠辦買方為主；年報客戶資訊因多為個人或契約限制，以「其他」揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要觀察點在建案完工交屋節奏、北士科商辦案、都更危老與合建案源能否按期推進。2025年：公司法說資料指出「聯上大喜」已於2025年9月取得使用執照，預計2025年底開始交屋；2025上半年財務表現為營收4.33億元、毛利率37%、稅後淨利4,594萬元、EPS 0.15元。2026年：公司2024年年報列示2025年度營業計畫中，完工交屋個案包含新北新店「聯上拾玉」跨年度交屋及新北三重「聯上大喜」，成屋銷售包含「聯上天母」與「聯上大喜」，預售個案包含台南安南科工案、台北北投新洲美26案與77案，施工個案包含「聯上光域」、「聯上大喜」、「聯上澐朗」、台電仁愛路案、北投新洲美26地號案及高雄苓雅四維案等。2027年：公司法說資料顯示「聯上光域」位於桃園中壢，已簽約金額32.3億元、銷售率91%，預計2027年取得使用執照，是2027年前後重要入帳來源之一。2028年：北投士林科技園區「聯上智科」規劃地下5層、地上18層，辦公室33戶及店面2戶，預計總銷90億元，預計2028年完工取得使照；北士科「新洲美77地號案」規劃住宅與店面，公司分回總銷金額約7.8億元，亦預計2028年完工。公司另於2025年取得桃園車站新民立體停車場公辦都更案最優申請人資格並完成簽約，預計開發時程2025至2031年，公司預計分回總銷約52億元，屬2028後長期案源。成長動能來自雙北、桃園及南部六都的土地開發、北士科產業聚落與交通建設題材、都更危老與合建案源、預售案銷售率已累積之合約負債。主要風險包括央行房市信用管制、房地合一稅與持續性政策調控、購地及建築融資收緊、利率與買氣變化、營建成本與工期上升、建照或都更程序延宕、合建分回比例及實際認列時點不確定，以及單一建案完工時點造成營收與獲利波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中國人造纖維股份有限公司 1718 台股上市公司；聯上發2024年年報重要契約列示，中纖提供新北市三重區五谷王一小段土地、台北市萬華區直興段土地，聯上發提供資金合作興建住宅大樓，屬合建土地供給方。
  • 台灣電力股份有限公司 未上市國營事業；年報及法說資料揭露台電仁愛路案為合建案，台電提供台北市中正區臨沂段土地，聯上發興建辦公大樓並取得鄰近土地自行開發使用。
  • 盛德營造股份有限公司 未確認為台股上市櫃公司；年報重要契約列示其承作新北市三重區仁信段、桃園市中壢區青昇段等建案工程，屬營造承包商。
  • 金藏營造工程股份有限公司 未確認為台股上市櫃公司；年報重要契約列示其承作台北市北投區新洲美段、新北市新店區斯馨段等工程，屬營造承包商。
  • 天瀚營造股份有限公司 未上市營造公司；年報重要契約列示其承作高雄苓雅林德官段、新北三重三重段、桃園中壢青溪段等工程。名稱與上市公司天瀚科技不同，故stock_id填null。
  • 松禾營造股份有限公司 未確認為台股上市櫃公司；年報重要契約列示其承作新北市新店區寶強段住宅工程。
  • 美力營造股份有限公司 未上市公司；公開徵才資料稱其為聯上建築轉投資之甲級營造廠，屬關係企業及營造能力來源之一。
Downstream
  • 海悅國際開發股份有限公司 2348 台股上市公司；2025年法說重點資料提及台南科工案與海悅廣告共同投資，且海悅本身為不動產代銷上市公司，屬銷售、代銷與開發合作夥伴。
  • 住宅自住及換屋買方 非上市櫃單一公司；公司住宅建案如聯上天母、聯上大喜、聯上光域、聯上澐朗、聯上琚川之終端需求主要來自自住、換屋及部分投資型購屋族群。
  • 商辦、店面及廠辦買方或承租方 非特定上市櫃公司；聯上世界、聯上聯店面、聯上智科商辦及五股御史段廠辦等產品之終端客戶包含企業、店面經營者及工業地產需求方。
  • 不動產代銷、仲介、廣告媒體與物業管理業者 年報將其列為房地產市場下游；實際個案合作名單未完整揭露，除已知海悅外不填具體stock_id。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.