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2547

日勝生 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 日勝生 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 67Quality 58Growth 88Momentum 39Chips 61

Is 日勝生 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~86% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.5%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 86th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 90th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 69.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.40
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國泰-敦南 holds 2,386 lots
  • sellers have 3,318 lots left, ~223 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 2,386 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 富邦-永和 peaked at 1,322 lots, has sold 53%, 617 left, ~12 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.89pp, mid holders -1, retail +2.54pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -12,816 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰-敦南永豐金-敦南群益金鼎-東門永豐金-中正群益金鼎-民權國票-南京
Distributing
富邦-永和玉山-桃園華南永昌-三重新光彰銀國票-南科
Desks
own scale
凱基-台北華南永昌-板橋台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰-敦南 +2,386
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金-敦南 +2,116
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-東門 +1,658
    sold 0%
  • 永豐金-中正 +1,435
    sold 0%
  • 群益金鼎-民權 +961
    sold 4%
  • 國票-南京 +792
    sold 10%

Distributing

  • 富邦-永和 617 left
    sold 53%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 玉山-桃園 578 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-三重 591 left
    sold 35%· paused recently
  • 新光 553 left
    sold 36%· ~41 sessions to clear
  • 彰銀 356 left
    sold 48%· ~132 sessions to clear
  • 國票-南科 161 left
    sold 73%· ~11 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 凱基-台北 -5,016
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 華南永昌-板橋 -4,253
    unclassified
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -4,068
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -3,242
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 3,318 lots ~223 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +5,944 absorbed / -2,009 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -7,581 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 69.9%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

82 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 75, Median -0.9%, Excess -0.2%, Beat mkt rate 46.7%；60-day: Win 37.8%, Sample 74, Median -3.52%, Excess -3.01%, Beat mkt rate 35.1%；120-day: Win 33.8%, Sample 74, Median -3.87%, Excess -7.07%, Beat mkt rate 27%

120 days after: historical avg -2%

20-day +0.33%
60-day -0.45%
120-day -2%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
37.8%
33.8%
Sample
75
74
74
Median
-0.9%
-3.52%
-3.87%
Excess
-0.2%
-3.01%
-7.07%
Beat mkt rate
46.7%
35.1%
27%

Over 74 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2%, lagged the market by 7.07 pts; win rate 33.8%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

60 historical occurrences (since 2012-06-15)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 49.2%, Sample 59, Median -0.5%, Excess -0.42%, Beat mkt rate 44.1%；60-day: Win 40.7%, Sample 59, Median -2.61%, Excess -2.19%, Beat mkt rate 39%；120-day: Win 44.1%, Sample 59, Median -2.19%, Excess -3.53%, Beat mkt rate 25.4%

120 days after: historical avg +2.9%

20-day -0.16%
60-day +0.84%
120-day +2.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49.2%
40.7%
44.1%
Sample
59
59
59
Median
-0.5%
-2.61%
-2.19%
Excess
-0.42%
-2.19%
-3.53%
Beat mkt rate
44.1%
39%
25.4%

Over 59 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.9%, lagged the market by 3.53 pts; win rate 44.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 270-21.9% -22.4% 5.6% -46.5%
20-40 181-16.5% -17.2% 1.7% -44.8%
40-60 107-6.6% -7.3% 17.8% -31%
60-80 466+5.7% +3.7% 54.9% -38.4%
80-100 You are here713+4.6% +3.1% 53.4% -22%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 80.0, at the 90.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-18.6%
Win rate 0% Excess -31.5%
110d
-11%
Win rate 14.3% Excess -19.7%
105d
Now
+2.9%
Win rate 47.4% Excess -12.4%
542d
60-day momentum down
-9.3%
Win rate 7.3% Excess -29.2%
411d
-5.1%
Win rate 41.5% Excess -19.1%
176d
+11.5%
Win rate 60.6% Excess -0.9%
513d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 542 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.9%, win rate 47.4%, lagged the market by 12.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.95%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -9.63 pts on average.

What does 日勝生 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建業 上市

Overview

2547 對應證券為日勝生活科技股份有限公司，證券簡稱日勝生，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立日依多數股市資料為 1982/03/26，上市日為 2000/12/22；原名日勝建設股份有限公司，後更名為日勝生活科技股份有限公司。總部位於台北市大同區市民大道一段209號14樓；董事長林榮顯，總經理劉垚凱，發言人陳婷婷。實收資本額約新台幣103.51億元，已發行普通股約10.35億股。公司主要業務為委託營造廠商興建住宅、商辦大樓，以供出租或出售，並已延伸至捷運聯開與都更、商場百貨、旅館、台北轉運站營運、水資源與循環經濟、康養樂齡住宅等。員工規模以104人力銀行揭露約850人作參考。主要股東資訊可確認者包括董事長林榮顯持股約1.19億股、約11.5%，副董事長林華駿約1,190萬股、約1.15%，法人董事昌新投資開發有限公司持股約3.96萬股；完整前十大股東需以公司最新年報或股東名簿為準。

Business

日勝生由傳統住宅與商辦開發商，逐步轉型為跨建設、營運與資源循環的集團。建設事業包含住宅大樓、商業大樓、複合式大樓、捷運聯合開發案、都市更新案、合宜住宅、社會住宅與康養住宅；代表案包括板橋浮洲合宜住宅「日勝幸福站」、大橋頭站捷2聯開「超站.S」、青埔「日勝新京站」、三芝「日初不老莊園」與「樂陶居」、青年社會住宅等。營運事業包含京站商場、萬達通管理台北轉運站相關出租與轉運站業務、日勝生加賀屋溫泉旅館等，模式包含不動產出售、租賃、商場營運、旅館及轉運站管理。資源循環事業包含桃園北區污水下水道BOT、水資源回收中心、再生水廠、太陽能光電、污泥資源化與廢棄物轉能等；子公司日鼎水務推動桃園北區污水下水道BOT，寶鼎再生水推動桃園北區再生水系統，並供應產業用水。2025年股東會新聞揭露114年合併營收約61.53億元、EPS 2.85元；第三方彙整資料顯示114年度營收分布約為營建37.24%、租賃23.17%、百貨21.56%、資源循環51.77%、其他6.80%、調整及沖銷-40.54%，因合併沖銷使單項占比加總不等於100%。公司2026年法說與新聞指出，2025年及2026年第1季水資源事業營收占比均已超過四成，成為核心成長動能。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能可分四軸。第一，水資源與循環經濟：桃園北區水務建設累計投資已超過175億元，日鼎水務污水接管突破17萬戶，處理量約每日10萬CMD，未來目標提升至15萬CMD；寶鼎再生水目前每日供應約4萬CMD，未來全期規劃達約11萬至11.2萬CMD，支援科技與產業園區穩定供水需求。AI智慧化再生水示範廠、污水回收、高階淨化與再生供應將提升長約型公共基礎服務收入比重。第二，TOD與都市更新：公司由單一建案開發轉向城市核心節點經營，北中南布局包括台北館前路都更案、台中捷運綠線文心崇德站聯開案、高雄捷運R17世運站A5街廓都更案；台北館前案已完成33.94億元聯貸，規劃27層A級智慧綠建築商辦；高雄R17案總投資逾88.5億元，規劃產業辦公、企業住宅與京站商場，受惠高雄科技S廊帶、半導體聚落與TOD商用不動產需求。第三，康養樂齡：台灣進入超高齡社會，三芝日初不老莊園分期完工與交屋，樂陶居等高齡住宅結合健康監測、智慧定位、緊急照護與服務收入，若入住率與服務平台化順利，可創造長期現金流。第四，成熟營運事業：京站、台北轉運站、加賀屋等提供租賃、人流與品牌現金流。主要風險包括台灣房市信用管制、升息或資金成本、都更與聯開案審查時程、建材與營造成本波動、公共工程與BOT履約風險、再生水需求與工業用戶議價、環保法規與地方溝通、資本支出龐大導致槓桿與現金流壓力，以及營建收入認列受完工交屋時點影響而波動。2027至2028具體財務數字公司未公開明確指引，本段為依已揭露案量與產業趨勢之研究判斷。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 公部門、私人地主、都市更新地主與土地仲介通路 土地來源包含公部門或私人釋出土地投標、仲介介紹、都市更新、危老整合與地主合建；多為政府機關、地主或未上市個體，非單一台股上市櫃供應商。
  • 泰誠發展營造股份有限公司 日勝生轉投資營造子公司，負責集團多數建案與公共工程承攬，屬未上市公司；近期承攬國立故宮博物院行政大樓及圖書館新建工程。
  • 優良營造廠與建材、機電、水處理設備供應商 年報與產業資料指出部分工程會發包給外部營造廠，水資源案亦需管線、機電、處理設備、AI監控與工程服務；未能確認特定上市櫃供應商名單，故不列股票代號。
  • 資源廢棄物與可燃一般事業廢棄物產出業者 循環經濟與廢轉能布局需掌握可燃料化資源廢棄料源，來源可能為國內製造業與科技業，但公開資料未揭露具體上市櫃供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 住宅、商辦、店面與停車場買方／租戶 日勝生建設事業下游客戶，包含住宅購屋者、商辦企業租戶、店面與停車位使用者；多為個人或未特定揭露法人。
  • 京站實業股份有限公司 集團百貨商場營運平台，經營京站商場與交通樞紐型商場；未上市，亦可視為集團內營運通路。
  • 萬達通實業股份有限公司 管理台北轉運站與相關出租／營運資產，承接人流、商場、停車與轉運站服務；未上市，為集團關係企業。
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 桃園北區再生水系統下游工業用戶之一，公開新聞指出2024年起每日供應南亞塑膠約8,000 CMD再生水，為台股上市公司。
  • 台灣中油股份有限公司桃園煉油廠 桃園北區再生水系統下游工業用戶之一，公開新聞指出每日供應約1萬CMD再生水；台灣中油為國營事業，未上市。
  • 桃園市政府與桃園北區污水下水道BOT服務區用戶 日鼎水務BOT案服務桃園區、八德區、龜山區、蘆竹區等範圍，客戶與付費基礎包含政府合約與接管戶；非上市櫃公司。
  • 雲朗觀光、威秀影城、統一佳佳、商場櫃位承租戶 台北轉運站與京站相關營運資產之旅館、影城、俱樂部、商場及停車場承租或經營方；其中統一佳佳屬統一集團關係企業但非台股上市公司本體，故不填股票代號。

Competitors

  • 名軒 1442 MoneyDJ列為日勝生營建推案之國內主要競爭者；台股上市公司。
  • 國建 2501 台灣大型建商，為大台北與全台建案競爭者。
  • 國揚 2505 上市建商，與日勝生在住宅、商辦及都更開發市場競爭。
  • 太設 2506 上市建設公司，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
  • 全坤建 2509 上市建商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
  • 太子 2511 上市建商，住宅與商用開發競爭者。
  • 冠德 2520 上市建商，亦具捷運聯開與商場經驗，與日勝生在TOD與都更市場高度可比。
  • 宏璟 2527 上市建商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
  • 華建 2530 上市建商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
  • 宏盛 2534 上市建商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
  • 宏普 2536 上市建商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
  • 聯上發 2537 上市建商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
  • 基泰 2538 上市建商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
  • 興富發 2542 上市大型建商，推案量與品牌能見度高，為住宅與商辦市場競爭者。
  • 皇翔 2545 上市建商，MoneyDJ列為主要競爭者。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.