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2702
steady quality, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 華園 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 61th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.9%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 90th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.3% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 國票-安和 has accumulated 2,692 lots since the start (sold 9%), holding.
- Main distributor 陽信 peaked at 313 lots, has sold 59%, 127 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.66pp, mid holders +2, retail -1.70pp — concentration shifting upward.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -143 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 國票-安和 +2,692
- 群益金鼎-高盛 +247
- 永豐金-敦南 +225
- 光和 +209
- 元大-府城 +75
- 永豐金-中和 +75
Distributing
- 陽信 127 left
- 元大-三峽 12 left
- 國泰-敦南 30 left
- 第一金-高雄 33 left
- 永豐金-桃園 33 left
- 摩根大通 19 left
Desks
- 元大-高雄 -262
- 宏遠-中和 -245
- 群益金鼎-新竹 -112
- 富邦-板橋 -82
Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 953 | +3.5% | +0.3% | 50.7% | -17.2% |
| 20-40 | 189 | +8.4% | +0.2% | 51.3% | -4.9% |
| 40-60 | 433 | +4.2% | -1.5% | 36.5% | -9% |
| 60-80 | 151 | +18.2% | -1.2% | 45% | +3.9% |
| 80-100 You are here | 489 | +24.4% | +18.1% | 57.3% | +6% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 67.89, at the 97.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 423 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.5%, win rate 39.2%, lagged the market by 5%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
13 times historically; 60-day forward avg -9.6%, win rate 25%, beating the market by -8.48 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
77 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.74%, win rate 58.6%, beating the market by -0.89 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.2%, win rate 48.6%, beating the market by -3.09 pts on average.
What does 華園 do? Company profile
Overview
華園飯店股份有限公司，統一編號75560601，成立於1959/07/29，1965/02/14於台灣證券交易所上市，證券分類為上市股票、觀光餐旅業；總部位於高雄市苓雅區四維三路6號23樓B室。依2026年最新公司治理與基本資料，董事長及總經理均為陳增東，係2025/12/16接任董事長並兼任總經理；發言人為涂慶昇，代理發言人為余素玲。實收資本額1,566,132,490元，已發行普通股156,613,249股。2026年年報揭露截至2026/03/31員工合計53人，平均年齡44歲，平均服務年資6年。主要股東依2026/04/10年報與2026/03/31主要股東資訊，包括穎川國際企業股份有限公司30,373,305股、19.39%；匯豐台灣商業銀行受託保管芝柏有限公司投資專戶15,462,772股、9.87%；匯豐台灣商業銀行受託保管艾思迪西有限公司投資專戶14,862,966股、9.49%；匯豐台灣商業銀行受託保管真道控股有限公司投資專戶14,687,124股、9.38%；匯豐台灣商業銀行受託保管東西控股有限公司投資專戶12,401,650股、7.92%；陳增東9,795,628股、6.25%；蘭心投資股份有限公司6,127,747股、3.91%。公司由高雄起家，現以旅館住宿、餐飲與相關服務為核心，並有美國營運據點。
Business
主要營業項目為一般旅館業、餐館業、食品什貨業及飲料零售等；服務內容為旅館出租、餐飲服務、會議場所及相關設施。2025年年報揭露2025年度合併營收1,409,133仟元，較2024年度1,441,827仟元衰退2.27%；2025年度稅後淨損54,265仟元。營收結構為客房收入1,395,383仟元、99.02%，餐飲收入8,885仟元、0.63%，其他收入4,865仟元、0.35%，顯示目前營運高度仰賴住宿客房。公司商業模式以自有與營運飯店客房出租為主，搭配餐飲、親子及休閒設施、會議場地、官方網站直訂、社群與數位行銷、OTA線上訂房平台、團體訂房及活動檔期住房專案。主要客群包含國內親子與家庭旅遊、休閒旅遊、短天期多頻次國旅、高雄大型展演活動旅客、部分日本韓國與其他入境旅客，以及美國據點周邊旅宿休閒需求。年報明確揭露無進貨或銷貨占比逾10%的主要供應商或客戶。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年已反映旅宿需求回穩但獲利承壓：合併營收年減2.27%，稅後轉虧，主因包含外幣資產收益減少、成本與市場競爭壓力。2026年公司營業計畫為飯店主題特色化、培育行銷人才、開發客源、持續拓展海外營業據點、轉換採購方式降低成本，以及靈活調度資金；公司預期銷售額可望維持低個位數成長，但國旅短天期與多頻次消費模式變動快，需求仍具不確定性。2026至2028年成長動能主要來自高雄港灣觀光、大型演唱會與展演活動、親子家庭旅遊、日韓與國際旅客回流至中南部、官方直訂與社群團購提升、收益管理與彈性定價，以及美國據點穩定旅宿需求。公司中長期計畫為強化主題化經營與品牌差異化、審慎評估國內外營運據點拓展、深化能源管理與碳盤查、強化人才培育、精進數據應用與決策能力。產業面，國發會2025年審議通過Tourism 2030臺灣觀光邁向2030方案，政策方向為永續韌性、數位創新、多元主題遊程、四季活動、擴大國際旅客與強化國旅留宿，目標2030年觀光產值達兆元，對旅宿需求具中長期支撐。主要風險為高雄旅宿供給增加、國際與本土品牌進駐、中價位與特色旅宿競爭、民宿與共享住宿競爭、OTA通路議價影響、少子化與服務業缺工、人力能源成本上升、利率與匯率波動、地緣政治與全球經濟放緩、資安與顧客資料保護、氣候風險及ESG法規要求。
Supply Chain
- 顧客用品供應商 年報揭露主要原料包含顧客用品，供應情況穩定；未揭露具名供應商，且無進貨占比逾10%之供應商。
- 生鮮食材供應商 年報揭露餐飲服務所需主要原料包含生鮮食材，供應情況穩定；未揭露具名供應商，且餐飲占營收比重僅0.63%。
- 能源、人力與旅館營運服務供應商 旅宿業成本包含能源、人力與維護等營運投入；年報僅揭露人力及能源成本上升為壓力來源，未揭露具名上市櫃供應商。
- 國內親子與家庭旅遊客群 公司以親子及休閒旅遊客群為重要目標，透過主題設施、活動規劃、社群及團體訂房通路提升住房率；非公司組織。
- 高雄大型展演與觀光活動旅客 公司位於高雄，年報指出將結合大型演唱會、展演及觀光活動檔期推出住房專案以帶動住宿需求；非公司組織。
- OTA線上訂房平台 年報指出OTA已成為主要訂房通路之一並影響房價與銷售策略；公司未揭露具名平台，可能包含非台股掛牌或海外平台。
- 日本、韓國與其他入境旅客 年報指出國際旅客逐步回流，日本及韓國旅客增加且旅遊動線延伸至中南部，有助高雄旅宿需求；非公司組織。
Competitors
- 晶華 2707 台股上市觀光餐旅同業，經營高端飯店與餐飲，屬旅館住宿市場競爭者。
- 國賓 2704 台股上市觀光餐旅同業，經營飯店與餐飲，屬旅館住宿市場競爭者。
- 六福 2705 台股上市觀光餐旅同業，經營飯店、餐飲及遊憩相關業務。
- 夏都 2722 台股上櫃觀光餐旅同業，經營度假型飯店。
- 雲品 2748 台股上市觀光餐旅同業，經營飯店與餐飲宴會服務。
- 寒舍 2739 台股上市觀光餐旅同業，經營飯店與餐飲。
- 老爺知 5704 台股上櫃觀光餐旅同業，經營飯店品牌與旅宿服務。
- 高雄萬豪酒店 高雄地區大型國際品牌飯店，非台股掛牌，屬區域住宿競爭者。
- 高雄漢來大飯店 高雄大型飯店，未查得台股掛牌，屬區域住宿與餐飲競爭者。
- 義大皇家酒店 高雄地區大型飯店，未查得台股掛牌，屬區域住宿競爭者。
- 洲際、凱悅、萬豪等國際品牌 年報提及高雄地區國際品牌進駐加劇競爭；多為海外或未上市櫃品牌，非台股掛牌。
Sources（11）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.