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2838

聯邦銀 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 聯邦銀 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 75Quality 69Growth 87Momentum 67Chips 95

Is 聯邦銀 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~89% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 29th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 15.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 61.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.32
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 5,116 lots
  • sellers have 3,426 lots left, ~225 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +20% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 5,116 lots since the start (sold 14%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 3,685 lots, has sold 40%, 2,219 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.01pp, mid holders +4, retail -0.07pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -110 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利花旗環球玉山-台南兆豐-高雄
Distributing
新加坡商瑞銀凱基-台北陽信美林致和-崇德國泰-敦南
Desks
own scale
國泰證券富邦-中壢元大證券元富
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +5,116
    sold 14%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +3,625
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +3,536
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +2,114
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 玉山-台南 +1,539
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-高雄 +924
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 2,219 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 1,766 left
    sold 26%· ~33 sessions to clear
  • 陽信 694 left
    sold 59%· ~188 sessions to clear
  • 美林 847 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 致和-崇德 442 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 226 left
    sold 48%· ~58 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 國泰證券 -4,285
    unclassified
  • 富邦-中壢 -3,906
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -3,570
    unclassified
  • 元富 -2,705
    unclassified
Still selling 3,426 lots ~225 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +7,877 absorbed / -1,051 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -91 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 historical occurrences (since 2010-08-06)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 35, Median +1.25%, Excess +2.29%, Beat mkt rate 65.7%；60-day: Win 64.7%, Sample 34, Median +1.82%, Excess +1.44%, Beat mkt rate 58.8%；120-day: Win 78.8%, Sample 33, Median +5.24%, Excess +1.34%, Beat mkt rate 51.5%

120 days after: historical avg +6.6%

20-day +2.24%
60-day +3.03%
120-day +6.6%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
64.7%
78.8%
Sample
35
34
33
Median
+1.25%
+1.82%
+5.24%
Excess
+2.29%
+1.44%
+1.34%
Beat mkt rate
65.7%
58.8%
51.5%

Over 33 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.6%, beat the market by 1.34 pts; win rate 78.8%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 61.12%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

61 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.2%, Sample 53, Median 0%, Excess +0.16%, Beat mkt rate 39.6%；60-day: Win 69.2%, Sample 52, Median +3.92%, Excess -1.47%, Beat mkt rate 34.6%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 51, Median +2.62%, Excess -2.34%, Beat mkt rate 45.1%

120 days after: historical avg +5.33%

20-day +0.18%
60-day +4.19%
120-day +5.33%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.2%
69.2%
66.7%
Sample
53
52
51
Median
0%
+3.92%
+2.62%
Excess
+0.16%
-1.47%
-2.34%
Beat mkt rate
39.6%
34.6%
45.1%

Over 51 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.33%, lagged the market by 2.34 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 259+4.7% +5.9% 81.9% -11.2%
20-40 408+2.5% +2.4% 60.3% -6.8%
40-60 269+9.6% +4.9% 71% +7.7%
60-80 682+20.4% +19.9% 99.7% +4.4%
80-100 You are here1358+15.1% +15.6% 85% -6.9%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 15.92, at the 92.3th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1%
Win rate 72.1% Excess -4.4%
240d
+6.6%
Win rate 70.4% Excess +5.6%
388d
Now
+7.4%
Win rate 86% Excess -2.5%
1541d
60-day momentum down
+1.8%
Win rate 70.8% Excess -5%
322d
+8.8%
Win rate 90.6% Excess -2.7%
149d
+8.1%
Win rate 79.2% Excess -3.7%
456d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1541 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 7.4%, win rate 86%, lagged the market by 2.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

66 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.85%, win rate 64.1%, beating the market by +0.17 pts on average.

What does 聯邦銀 do? Company profile

金融保險業／銀行業 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

代號 2838 對應聯邦商業銀行股份有限公司，簡稱聯邦銀，為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，不是 ETF、ETN、特別股、權證或 REIT。公司成立於 1991-12-31，上市日期為 1998-06-29，總部位於臺北市松山區民生東路三段109號1、2樓。董事長為林鴻聯，總經理為許維文，發言人為楊巨昌。公開資料顯示實收資本額約新臺幣454.06億元，已發行普通股約43.41億股，另有特別股2億股。2025年年報揭露，截至2026年3月底國內分行91家，海外代表人辦事處2處，位於越南胡志明市與河內市；2024年永續報告書揭露主要在台營運範圍涵蓋聯邦銀行及聯邦租賃、聯邦財務、聯邦投信、聯邦網通、聯邦創投等子公司。104人力銀行頁面列示員工數約3,900人，此員工數屬第三方徵才資料，非年報逐字確認。主要股東與董事席次可見聯邦集團相關法人與家族投資公司色彩，包括友邦股份有限公司、聯邦投資有限公司、全成投資股份有限公司、百盛投資股份有限公司等法人股東；2025年報並揭露友邦股份有限公司由林榮三股份有限公司100%持有，聯邦投資有限公司主要股東為林鴻聯與林趙天麗，百盛、全成之上層股東為聯禾投資股份有限公司。

Business

聯邦銀為民營商業銀行，核心業務包括收受存款、辦理放款、票據貼現、匯兌、承兌、保證、開發信用狀、買賣短期票券、投資、外匯、信託、財富管理、信用卡、保險代理及其他代理業務。商業模式以吸收存款與同業／市場資金作為資金來源，配置於企業金融、消費金融、房貸、車貸、信用卡循環與手續費、票券與債券投資、外匯與財富管理商品銷售；收益主要來自利息淨收益、手續費淨收益、金融商品評價／處分、外匯與租賃等。2025年年報致股東報告書揭露，2025年度利息淨收益約95.81億元，利息以外淨收益約83.94億元，淨收益總計約179.75億元，稅後淨利約61.02億元，EPS約1.29元，ROA約0.61%，普通股ROE約7.83%，逾放比率0.29%，備抵呆帳覆蓋率410.41%。主要客戶為個人存放款與信用卡客戶、房貸與車貸客戶、企業授信與票券客戶、中小企業、大型企業、高資產與財富管理客戶、外匯及信託客戶。2026年股東會通過2025年度普通股股利每股1.06元，其中現金0.46元、股票0.60元，特別股每股約2.63元股息。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已由存放款利差、財富管理與信用卡等核心業務推升獲利，總資產規模跨越兆元水準，資產品質仍維持低逾放與高覆蓋率。2026年公司年報揭露營運方向包括提升存款規模、增設行外ATM與強化超商ATM據點；企業金融聚焦大型優質企業貸款、TCRI評等1至5級公司、高自償性貸款與票券收益；消費金融提高新承作案件利率與手續費、推動首購房貸、法拍案件及車貸；信用卡發展差異化優惠、新卡產品、多元支付收單、特店分期與風險控管；財富管理將開辦高資產與亞資業務，提供稅務、信託、法律、資產配置、保單融資、Lombard Lending、家族辦公室等一站式服務；數位金融將優化個人與企業網銀、建置英語版行動銀行、強化 New New Bank 導流與跨售。2025至2028年成長動能預期來自：一、臺灣企業資金需求、半導體與綠能投資、公共建設與台商資金配置；二、亞洲資產管理中心與高資產財管業務政策紅利；三、信用卡、支付、收單與數位帳戶的客戶黏著度；四、綠色授信、永續連結貸款與ESG投融資；五、越南代表處作為海外布局觀察點。主要風險包括利率循環轉向造成淨利差收斂、房市與央行選擇性信用管制影響房貸成長、信用卡與消金逾放上升、金融市場波動影響投資評價與手續費、地緣政治與中國經濟調整、資本適足與氣候風險監理趨嚴、資安與詐欺風險、民營銀行與金控銀行財管及信用卡競爭加劇。2027至2028展望屬研究推估，需視央行利率、金管會亞資政策、房市管制、信用循環與公司資本規劃更新。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶與法人資金提供者 銀行主要資金來源之一；包含個人、企業、機構存款戶及同業資金，非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 中央銀行與同業金融市場 提供準備金、清算、流動性與利率政策框架；非上市櫃公司。
  • 財金資訊股份有限公司 臺灣跨行金融資訊、ATM與支付清算基礎設施服務商，未上市。
  • 台灣票據交換所 票據交換與清算體系參與機構，非上市櫃公司。
  • Visa Inc. 信用卡國際組織與支付網路，為美國上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
  • Mastercard Incorporated 信用卡國際組織與支付網路，為美國上市公司，非台股上市櫃。
Downstream
  • 個人金融客戶 存款、房貸、車貸、信用卡、外匯、數位帳戶與理財服務客群，非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 中小企業與大型企業客戶 企業授信、票券、匯兌、保證、信用狀、外匯與現金管理服務客群，包含上市櫃與未上市企業但公開資料未逐一揭露。
  • 高資產與財富管理客戶 高資產、亞資、信託、保險、基金、債券、結構型商品與家族辦公室服務客群，非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 信用卡特約商店與收單合作商戶 信用卡消費、收單、分期與支付服務下游客戶，涵蓋連鎖與高單價商戶但未逐一揭露。

Competitors

  • 彰化銀行 2801 臺灣上市銀行，同屬存放款、企業金融、消費金融與財富管理競爭者。
  • 京城銀行 2809 臺灣上市銀行，民營銀行，區域金融、企金與個金業務具競爭關係。
  • 台中銀行 2812 臺灣上市銀行，區域型商業銀行，存放款與中小企業金融競爭者。
  • 臺灣中小企業銀行 2834 臺灣上市銀行，以中小企業金融為核心，企金與存放款市場競爭者。
  • 高雄銀行 2836 臺灣上市銀行，區域型銀行，消金、企金與存款市場競爭者。
  • 遠東國際商業銀行 2845 臺灣上市銀行，民營銀行，信用卡、財管、企金與消金市場競爭者。
  • 王道商業銀行 2897 臺灣上市銀行，數位金融、企金與個金業務競爭者。
  • 台新新光金控 2887 臺灣上市金控，旗下銀行信用卡、財富管理與消費金融業務與聯邦銀競爭。
  • 玉山金控 2884 臺灣上市金控，旗下玉山銀行在信用卡、數位金融、財管與企金具強競爭力。
  • 永豐金控 2890 臺灣上市金控，旗下永豐銀行在個金、企金、財管及數位金融與聯邦銀競爭。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.