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2867

三商壽 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

3 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 三商壽 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 42Quality 26Growth 95Momentum 74Chips 98

Is 三商壽 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 31th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.3%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 81th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 25.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 154.9%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.93
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 港商野村 holds 113,809 lots
  • sellers have 28,698 lots left, ~38 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 港商野村 has accumulated 113,809 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-台北 peaked at 38,906 lots, has sold 43%, 22,024 left, ~38 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.70pp, mid holders -154, retail -4.44pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -5,933 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
港商野村台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛元大證券台新新加坡商瑞銀
Distributing
凱基-台北統一-士林花旗環球富邦-頭份凱基富邦-板橋
Desks
own scale
華南永昌-南京玉山-板橋群益金鼎香港上海匯豐
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 港商野村 +113,809
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +100,056
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +53,032
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +38,431
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 台新 +36,344
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +35,415
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 凱基-台北 22,024 left
    sold 43%· ~38 sessions to clear
  • 統一-士林 3,538 left
    sold 46%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 2,633 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 富邦-頭份 1,224 left
    sold 49%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 凱基 1,325 left
    sold 43%· ~27 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-板橋 937 left
    sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

  • 華南永昌-南京 -9,030
    unclassified
  • 玉山-板橋 -8,446
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -7,337
    unclassified
  • 香港上海匯豐 -6,310
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 28,698 lots ~38 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +102,787 absorbed / -10,576 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 historical occurrences (since 2013-12-25)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 15, Median -0.54%, Excess +0.21%, Beat mkt rate 46.7%；60-day: Win 40%, Sample 15, Median -1.06%, Excess -2.63%, Beat mkt rate 40%；120-day: Win 35.7%, Sample 14, Median -5.63%, Excess -8.39%, Beat mkt rate 21.4%

120 days after: historical avg -3.69%

20-day -0.56%
60-day +0.27%
120-day -3.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
40%
35.7%
Sample
15
15
14
Median
-0.54%
-1.06%
-5.63%
Excess
+0.21%
-2.63%
-8.39%
Beat mkt rate
46.7%
40%
21.4%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 3.69%, lagged the market by 8.39 pts; win rate 35.7%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 154.93%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

70 historical occurrences (since 2012-12-18)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 45.2%, Sample 42, Median 0%, Excess -1.92%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；60-day: Win 56.1%, Sample 41, Median +0.57%, Excess -0.86%, Beat mkt rate 43.9%；120-day: Win 42.5%, Sample 40, Median -1.25%, Excess -3.46%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%

120 days after: historical avg +5%

20-day +0.11%
60-day +3.45%
120-day +5%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
45.2%
56.1%
42.5%
Sample
42
41
40
Median
0%
+0.57%
-1.25%
Excess
-1.92%
-0.86%
-3.46%
Beat mkt rate
33.3%
43.9%
37.5%

Over 40 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5%, lagged the market by 3.46 pts; win rate 42.5%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 14%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 historical occurrences (since 2013-01-31)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 55.6%, Sample 63, Median +0.89%, Excess -0.42%, Beat mkt rate 38.1%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 60, Median -0.05%, Excess -3.53%, Beat mkt rate 31.7%；120-day: Win 45.8%, Sample 59, Median -2.13%, Excess -7.59%, Beat mkt rate 32.2%

120 days after: historical avg -0.23%

20-day +1.47%
60-day +0.2%
120-day -0.23%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.6%
50%
45.8%
Sample
63
60
59
Median
+0.89%
-0.05%
-2.13%
Excess
-0.42%
-3.53%
-7.59%
Beat mkt rate
38.1%
31.7%
32.2%

Over 59 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 0.23%, lagged the market by 7.59 pts; win rate 45.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 314-5.6% -3.7% 37.3% -59.6%
20-40 465-4% +3.1% 59.8% -28.3%
40-60 315-14% -20.8% 27.3% -33.6%
60-80 70-10.4% +1.8% 54.3% -34.9%
80-100 You are here219-1.7% -6.7% 39.7% -48.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 61.57, at the 96.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-14.9%
Win rate 15.7% Excess -30.2%
249d
-4.6%
Win rate 42.7% Excess -10%
361d
Now
+1.3%
Win rate 61.2% Excess -22.9%
129d
60-day momentum down
-1.5%
Win rate 42.7% Excess -21%
377d
+8.8%
Win rate 79.3% Excess -0.9%
169d
+5.9%
Win rate 69.3% Excess -28.9%
218d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 129 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.3%, win rate 61.2%, lagged the market by 22.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

What does 三商壽 do? Company profile

金融保險業／人身保險業 TWSE 上市

Overview

代號2867為臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券簡稱三商壽。公司成立於1993年6月12日，2012年12月18日上市，總部位於台北市內湖區石潭路58號1樓，主要經營人身保險業務。鉅亨網公司資料顯示董事長為翁肇喜、總經理為陳宏昇、實收資本額約589.95億元、已發行股數約59.00億股；股東人數約6.98萬人，前十大持股約31.7%。保險業公開資訊及玉山金併購資料顯示第一大股東為三商投資控股股份有限公司；玉山金併購簡報並稱三商壽股東約9.1萬名，併購完成後將持有玉山金約8.31%股權。2026年1月23日玉山金與三商壽股東臨時會已通過以股份轉換方式由玉山金取得三商壽100%股權，原換股比率為每1股三商壽換發玉山金0.2486股；2026年6月玉山金因現金股利調整後，市場報導換股比率為0.2596股，仍須依主管機關核准與最終公告為準。公司2025年自結稅後淨利11.8億元、EPS 0.20元、總資產1.66兆元；2026年前4月自結稅後淨利33.7億元、EPS 0.57元，4月底淨值867億元、淨值比6.46%。員工與業務團隊部分，公開資料未取得完整內勤員工總數；玉山併購相關報導稱三商壽有約8,600名業務員、約400萬張保單與逾257個據點，三商壽永續資訊顯示2024年具投資型商品銷售資格業務員7,677人、外幣非投資型商品銷售資格業務員7,108人。

Business

三商壽為壽險公司，業務內容包括個人壽險、健康醫療險、傷害險、年金險、投資型保險、銀行通路商品、團體保險及保單借款等保戶服務。2025年營收比重資料顯示，個人健康險約50.42%、個人壽險約38.52%、個人傷害險約5.14%、投資型保險約4.52%、團體險保費約1.33%、年金險約0.07%。商業模式為透過自有業務員、通訊處、銀行保險及保經代等通路銷售保單，收取保費並承擔死亡、醫療、傷害、長照、年金等保險風險，同時將保費資金配置於國內外固定收益、股票、基金及其他金融資產以取得利息、股利、資本利得與匯兌收益；投資型商品則連結基金、結構型商品、類全委帳戶等標的，保戶承擔部分投資風險，公司取得保費、費用收入與保單服務邊際。公司長期以業務員通路為主要銷售管道，近年主軸為投資型商品與保障型商品。2025年新契約保費FYP為356.7億元、FYPE為84億元，分別較2024年成長11%與6%，其中投資型商品FYP占率達86%；利率變動型壽險FYP年增73%。2026年第一季FYP為125億元、FYPE為25億元，年增24%與17%；長年期健康險FYP年增60%，第一季CSM累積至644億元，新契約CSM增加38億元。主要客戶為個人與家庭保戶、退休與財富管理客群、企業團險客戶，以及透過銀行、保經代與未來玉山金控體系觸及之財富管理客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年三商壽受惠股債市場回升、避險成本下降與外匯價格變動準備金累積，全年轉盈11.8億元；但上半年曾受新台幣升值、準備金暫行措施與額外增提外匯價格變動準備金影響，顯示匯率與資本市場仍是獲利波動核心。2026年前4月因台股大漲帶動權益類資產獲利，累積淨投資獲利123.1億元，淨值比升至6.46%，短期資本壓力較2024至2025年改善。2026至2028年主要成長動能包括：一、持續銷售高CSM的長年期健康險、傷害險與保障型商品，以改善IFRS 17下未來獲利能見度；二、投資型商品與利率變動型壽險仍具銷售動能，搭配財富管理需求；三、若玉山金控併購案取得主管機關核准並完成股份轉換，三商壽可望取得玉山銀行逾800萬個人客戶、銀行分行、理專與證券投信資源，形成銀行、保險、證券交叉銷售與資產配置整合效益；四、外匯價格變動準備金及AC匯率攤銷制度有助降低避險部位需求與避險成本。主要風險包括：一、IFRS 17與TW-ICS／RBC資本要求使壽險業需維持較高資本與淨值比，若市場逆轉可能再需增資、發債或降低風險資產；二、利率、匯率與股市波動會直接影響淨值、避險成本、投資收益與資本適足；三、玉山金併購仍涉及主管機關審核、換股條件、員工安置、系統整合、商品與通路整合執行風險；四、保險商品適合度、投資型商品銷售、保戶申訴及法遵風險會影響品牌與罰鍰成本；五、壽險同業在銀行保險、高資產客戶、健康險與退休保障市場競爭激烈。2027至2028具體財務目標未在已查得公開資料中明確揭露，相關展望為依已公告策略、法說資訊、併購綜效與壽險產業制度變革所作之推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中央再保險股份有限公司 2851 台灣上市再保險公司，屬壽險業風險移轉與再保容量之上游供給者；未查得三商壽逐一揭露重大再保合約對手，列示為產業上游關係。
  • 國際再保險公司 壽險公司通常透過國際再保市場分散死亡、健康、傷害及巨災風險；三商壽公開資料未逐名揭露主要再保供應商，故以類別列示。
  • 基金公司、投信投顧與境內外投資標的發行機構 投資型保單連結基金、類全委帳戶、結構型商品及債券等標的；多數為境內外金融機構或未逐名揭露之合作平台，非單一台股掛牌供應商。
  • 中國信託商業銀行／中信金控 2891 三商壽保單借款還款等服務揭露可透過中國信託銀行臨櫃繳款，屬收付款與金融服務合作通路；中國信託商業銀行為中信金控子公司。
Downstream
  • 個人與家庭保戶 個人壽險、健康險、傷害險、年金險、投資型保單與保單借款等主要終端客戶，非上市櫃公司。
  • 企業團體保險客戶 團體壽險、健康險與意外險等團險客戶，客戶名單未逐一公開，可能包含上市櫃、未上市及法人機構。
  • 三商美邦保險代理人股份有限公司 2009年成立之關係保險代理人公司，屬保險銷售與通路延伸，未上市。
  • 玉山金融控股股份有限公司 2884 2026年1月股東會通過以股份轉換取得三商壽100%股權；完成後玉山銀行、證券、投信與理專客群將成為三商壽重要金融通路與客戶觸及來源。
  • 保險經紀人、保險代理人與銀行保險通路 壽險商品外部銷售通路；三商壽公開資訊揭露設有銀行通路與多元行銷業務，但未查得完整合作名單。

Competitors

  • 國泰金融控股股份有限公司 2882 旗下國泰人壽為台灣大型壽險公司，是壽險、健康險、投資型保單與財富管理市場主要競爭者。
  • 富邦金融控股股份有限公司 2881 旗下富邦人壽為大型壽險公司，與三商壽在壽險、健康險、投資型商品及資產配置能力競爭。
  • 中信金融控股股份有限公司 2891 旗下台灣人壽為壽險業者，並具銀行通路優勢；中信金亦曾被市場報導為三商壽出售案潛在競爭買方。
  • 凱基金控股份有限公司 2883 旗下凱基人壽為壽險業者，與三商壽同屬壽險及退休保障市場競爭者。
  • 台新新光金融控股股份有限公司 2887 旗下壽險業務承接新光人壽體系，於壽險保障、投資型商品與銀行保險通路具競爭關係；金融控股整併後名稱與架構仍以最新主管機關公告為準。
  • 全球人壽保險股份有限公司 台灣壽險公司，未上市；在傳統壽險、健康險與銀行保險通路市場競爭。
  • 遠雄人壽保險事業股份有限公司 台灣壽險公司，未上市；在壽險、健康險、投資型與保障型商品市場競爭。
Sources（17）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.