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3030
strong quality, fair valuation, no active signal today.
Is 德律 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~96% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 8.2%.
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Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 60th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -9.1% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Distribution to retail — bearish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +89% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 永豐金-屏東 has accumulated 1,884 lots since the start (sold 5%), now trimming.
- Main distributor 國票-敦北法人 peaked at 770 lots, has sold 78%, 170 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.78pp, mid holders -8, retail +3.04pp — drifting down to retail.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -11,813 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 永豐金-屏東 +1,884
- 中國信託 +1,628
- 台新證券 +1,387
- 港商麥格理 +929
- 永豐金證券 +746
- 新光 +725
Distributing
- 國票-敦北法人 170 left
- 永豐金-潮州 295 left
- 統一 151 left
- 元大-北投 156 left
- 花旗環球 306 left
- 國票證券 96 left
Desks
- 台灣摩根士丹利 -3,087
- 美商高盛 -2,609
- 摩根大通 -1,909
- 港商野村 -1,886
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 418 | +31.5% | +18.5% | 92.1% | +10% |
| 20-40 | 267 | +28.6% | +5.4% | 67.4% | +9.6% |
| 40-60 | 647 | +20.7% | +11% | 76.8% | +7.8% |
| 60-80 | 998 | +24.8% | +11% | 72.7% | +5.6% |
| 80-100 You are here | 713 | +27.9% | +25.6% | 87.7% | +15.9% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 28.79, at the 95.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1022 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 19.4%, win rate 68.4%, beat the market by 10.3%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
32 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.72%, win rate 58.1%, beating the market by +9.79 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
109 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.46%, win rate 60.6%, beating the market by +5.97 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.81%, win rate 60%, beating the market by +2.82 pts on average.
What does 德律 do? Company profile
Overview
德律科技股份有限公司成立於1989年4月10日，原為德律科技有限公司，1997年8月改組為股份有限公司；普通股先於2001年3月21日以5496在櫃買中心上櫃，2002年10月29日轉至台灣證券交易所上市，代號3030。總部位於台北市士林區德行西路45號7樓，董事長兼總經理為陳玠源。公司英文名稱為Test Research, Inc.，英文簡稱TRI，統一編號23292535。實收資本額約新台幣23.6216億元，已發行普通股236,216,000股，簽證會計師為資誠聯合會計師事務所，股務代理為凱基證券。公司在美國、馬來西亞、中國大陸、德國、日本、韓國等地設子公司，並在超過30個國家設代理商；主要工廠位於桃園龜山與林口。員工規模方面，公開徵才平台揭露約950人，但此非交易所申報口徑；另永續報告摘要顯示研發人員占總員工數約38%。主要股東依公司網站截至2024/06/22揭露，陳玠源持股16.04%、葉美杏7.34%、德信投資6.72%、德昇投資4.53%、匯豐託管富達國際小型企業基金3.26%、志聖工業1.59%、大通託管梵加德新興市場基金1.18%、德鴻投資1.16%、大通託管先進星光先進總合國際股票指數1.11%、翁琪芳1.07%。
Business
德律是電子製造業自動測試與檢測設備供應商，核心產品為SMT與PCBA製程檢測設備，涵蓋3D錫膏印刷自動光學檢測機SPI、自動光學檢測機AOI、防護塗層AOI、自動X射線檢測機AXI、組裝電路板測試機MDA、線上組裝電路板測試機ICT、IC測試機，以及半導體檢測機SEMI的光學與X射線設備。商業模式以自有品牌TRI innovation研發、製造、銷售設備，搭配全球代理與子公司提供裝機、維修、技術支援及售後服務，收入具備設備銷售、治具與服務零件性質。產品組合方面，公開法說與新聞資料顯示自動光學檢測設備SPI/AOI/AXI約占營收75%，電路板測試機MDA/ICT約占25%；目前營收仍以傳統SMT電路板檢測為主，約85%，半導體先進封裝與中後段製程檢測約10%至15%，且比重持續提升。區域銷售方面，MoneyDJ整理至2024年顯示亞洲約90%、美洲6%、歐洲4%。主要終端應用包括AI伺服器、網通設備、消費電子、車用電子、手機、PC與筆電、主機板、電源供應器、半導體封裝與晶圓/封測中後段檢測。主要客戶依MoneyDJ揭露包括鴻海、廣達、英業達、華碩、Prime Technological Services等電子製造大廠；公司近年亦強調深耕NVIDIA供應鏈與導入NVIDIA Metropolis視覺AI框架於AOI設備。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025年德律受惠AI伺服器、先進封裝與半導體製程升級，全年營收約新台幣84.65億元，年增33.22%，創歷史新高，前三季EPS為7.59元。2026年展望方面，公開法說與媒體報導指出，全球AI基礎建設擴大、晶圓廠與封測廠資本支出回溫，半導體檢測設備接單與出貨狀況良好，公司預期仍維持年成長；林口二期廠持續提升產能與智慧工廠展示，使用率已超過一半。2027至2028年屬研究推估：若AI伺服器主板、高速網通、CoWoS/先進封裝、BGA/Flip-chip、RDL與TGV等檢測需求延續，德律可望藉由SPI、3D AOI、AXI、ICT與半導體SEMI檢測完整產品線，提升高毛利半導體與藍海設備占比；新一代7950Q SII已通過客戶驗證並開始認列營收，應用於先進封裝凸塊與表面TSV檢測，公司亦計畫開發玻璃基板應用的RDL、TGV檢測設備。主要成長動能包括AI伺服器複雜度提升帶動全檢需求、先進封裝良率管理需求、NVIDIA生態系與視覺AI導入、全球EMS/ODM客戶資本支出、車用與高階電子可靠度需求。主要風險包括AI伺服器投資循環降溫、客戶資本支出遞延、半導體設備驗證期長、匯率波動、關稅與地緣政治、國際設備大廠競爭、中國大陸本土競爭者價格壓力、關鍵零組件供應與客戶集中度風險。
Supply Chain
- 機構相關零件供應商 德律產品原料包括機構相關零件；公司未公開逐一揭露供應商名稱，故以供應類別列示。
- PCB空板供應商 德律設備使用PCB空板等電子材料；公開資料未確認特定供應公司。
- 機電零件與繼電器供應商 德律重要原物料包含機電零件、繼電器等，由國內外大廠供應；未確認具名上市櫃供應商。
- 電腦週邊與工業電腦供應商 檢測設備需搭配運算、控制與周邊系統；公開資料僅揭露類別，未揭露具名供應商。
- 鴻海精密工業 2317 MoneyDJ列為德律主要客戶之一；為台股上市EMS/ODM大廠，使用檢測設備於電子組裝製程。
- 廣達電腦 2382 MoneyDJ列為德律主要客戶之一；為台股上市伺服器與筆電ODM大廠，AI伺服器需求為德律成長動能之一。
- 英業達 2356 MoneyDJ列為德律主要客戶之一；為台股上市伺服器與電子製造大廠。
- 華碩 2357 MoneyDJ列為德律主要客戶之一；為台股上市PC與電子品牌公司。
- Prime Technological Services, LLC MoneyDJ列為德律主要客戶之一；美國公司，非台股上市櫃。
- NVIDIA 美國上市公司；公開法說與媒體報導提及德律加入/深耕NVIDIA供應鏈或生態系，並導入NVIDIA Metropolis視覺AI框架於AOI設備。
Competitors
- 牧德科技 3563 台股上櫃AOI檢測設備公司，聚焦PCB、載板與半導體AOI，屬台灣AOI檢測同業。
- 由田新技 3455 台股上市視覺檢測設備公司，切入面板、PCB與半導體檢測，屬台灣AOI檢測同業。
- Koh Young Technology 韓國上市/掛牌公司；MoneyDJ列為德律電路板檢測設備國際競爭者。
- Omron 日本上市公司；MoneyDJ列為德律電路板檢測設備競爭者。
- 思泰克 中國大陸公司；MoneyDJ列為競爭者，非台股上市櫃。
- 矩子科技 中國大陸上市公司；MoneyDJ列為競爭者，非台股上市櫃。
- ViTrox 馬來西亞上市公司；MoneyDJ列為競爭者，非台股上市櫃。
- Keysight Technologies 美國上市公司；MoneyDJ列為競爭者，非台股上市櫃。
- Teradyne 美國上市公司；MoneyDJ列為競爭者，非台股上市櫃。
- Viscom 德國上市公司；MoneyDJ列為競爭者，非台股上市櫃。
Sources（16）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.