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3036

文曄 Electronics Distribution As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 文曄 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 58Quality 61Growth 95Momentum 48Chips 96

Is 文曄 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 34th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 29th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 85th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 17.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 152.7%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.02
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 25,972 lots
  • sellers have 5,666 lots left, ~63 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +51% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 25,972 lots since the start (sold 1%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 9,440 lots, has sold 43%, 5,351 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -1.43pp, mid holders +34, retail +0.56pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -7,066 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀國泰證券摩根大通美商高盛美林兆豐證券
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利台新港商野村康和第一金元大-土城永寧
Desks
own scale
群益金鼎元大證券富邦證券中國信託
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +25,972
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +12,247
    sold 10%
  • 摩根大通 +11,180
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +10,623
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 美林 +7,284
    sold 2%· still adding
  • 兆豐證券 +3,793
    sold 12%

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 5,351 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 台新 2,502 left
    sold 26%· ~29 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 2,107 left
    sold 32%· ~63 sessions to clear
  • 康和 963 left
    sold 49%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 第一金 539 left
    sold 61%· paused recently
  • 元大-土城永寧 574 left
    sold 42%· paused recently

Desks

  • 群益金鼎 -32,441
    unclassified
  • 元大證券 -19,991
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -16,840
    unclassified
  • 中國信託 -5,693
    unclassified
Still selling 5,666 lots ~63 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +29,190 absorbed / -1,772 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,963 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 152.69%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

127 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 112, Median +0.89%, Excess +0.31%, Beat mkt rate 38.4%；60-day: Win 62.7%, Sample 110, Median +3.37%, Excess +2.33%, Beat mkt rate 48.2%；120-day: Win 66.7%, Sample 108, Median +5.75%, Excess +4.34%, Beat mkt rate 45.4%

120 days after: historical avg +12.6%

20-day +2.13%
60-day +7.35%
120-day +12.6%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.5%
62.7%
66.7%
Sample
112
110
108
Median
+0.89%
+3.37%
+5.75%
Excess
+0.31%
+2.33%
+4.34%
Beat mkt rate
38.4%
48.2%
45.4%

Over 108 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 12.6%, beat the market by 4.34 pts; win rate 66.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 794+30.5% +13.4% 76.3% +12.6%
20-40 406+30.3% +15.8% 76.4% +13.4%
40-60 501+22.9% +14.6% 68.3% +12.2%
60-80 524+19.1% +15.2% 70.4% +9.2%
80-100 You are here816+27.9% +14.2% 71.4% +5.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 15.89, at the 85.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+10.9%
Win rate 74.2% Excess +4%
555d
+14.2%
Win rate 76.5% Excess +8%
545d
+21.7%
Win rate 71.7% Excess +9.2%
939d
60-day momentum down
+4.9%
Win rate 63% Excess -1.4%
525d
+6.1%
Win rate 67% Excess -1.4%
270d
Now
+9.3%
Win rate 52.2% Excess +2.1%
322d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 322 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.3%, win rate 52.2%, beat the market by 2.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

43 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.88%, win rate 71.4%, beating the market by +6.85 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.82%, win rate 65.1%, beating the market by +1.43 pts on average.

What does 文曄 do? Company profile

電子通路業／半導體與電子零組件通路 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

3036 對應文曄科技股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業別為電子通路業，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1993/12/23，上市日期資料來源有差異：鉅亨網與 Win 投資列示為 2002/08/26，Goodinfo 列示掛牌日 2000/09/26，故本報告採「已上市」並於 notes 標示日期差異。總部位於新北市中和區中正路738號14樓。董事長為鄭文宗，總經理為鄭文宗。依 2025 年年報，114年度合併營收新台幣1,177,948,907仟元、年增22.78%，營業利益20,882,180仟元、年增36.80%，稅後淨利13,566,471仟元、年增47.36%，基本每股盈餘11.61元。年報列示截至115/3/16已發行流通在外普通股1,269,148,301股；第三方資料於2026/6/17附近列示實收資本額約126.91億至140.04億元，可能受海外存託憑證、現增與資料更新時點影響。員工規模依2025年年報：114年度合計7,597人，截至115/3/31為7,580人，其中業務行銷6,103人、行政管理988人、研發489人，平均年齡42.7歲、平均年資9.5年。主要股東依2025年年報停止過戶日115/3/16：祥碩科技14.87%、大聯大控股12.06%、紹陽投資6.82%、日電貿4.60%、元大台灣高股息基金專戶3.98%、群益台灣精選高息ETF基金專戶3.54%、富邦人壽分紅03帳戶2.58%、鄭文宗本人2.03%、匯豐受託保管加拿大帝國商業銀行世界市場公司投資專戶1.69%、新制勞工退休基金1.54%。公司於2024年4月完成併購加拿大 Future Electronics Inc.，形成台北與蒙特婁雙總部架構，市場覆蓋由亞洲擴展至全球。

Business

文曄定位為專業半導體與電子零組件通路商，商業模式為代理經銷上游 IDM、IC設計、被動元件、連接器、機電元件等原廠產品，向下游 OBM、ODM、OEM、系統廠與電子產品製造商提供銷售、物流、庫存管理、資金流、資訊流、產品導入、FAE技術支援與整體解決方案。2025年營收結構依商品別：特定應用積體電路27.80%、特定應用標準產品－有線連接19.00%、特定應用標準產品－無線連接16.50%、類比積體電路10.70%、微元件積體電路5.60%、記憶體5.10%、分散式元件3.60%、特定應用標準產品－其他3.10%、光電子元件2.60%、被動元件、連接器及機電元件3.10%、其他2.90%。依應用領域，2025年資料中心及伺服器約占41.2%、手機15.6%、通訊產品12.7%、工業與儀器11.1%、個人電腦及週邊6.8%、汽車電子6.6%、消費性電子及其他6.0%。代理品牌包含 Ambarella、Amlogic、ASMedia、Broadcom、Diodes、Infineon、Intel、KYOCERA AVX、Littelfuse、Lumileds、Marvell、MaxLinear、MediaTek、Microchip、Micron、MPS、Murata、Nanya、Navitas、Nexperia、NXP、Nuvoton、OMNIVISION、onsemi、Osram、Panasonic、Qualcomm、Renesas、Realtek、Richwave、Silergy、Silicon Labs、Samsung、Skyworks、STMicroelectronics、Synaptics、TE、Vishay、Wolfspeed、Yageo 等。2025年主要進貨供應商以代號A揭露，占進貨淨額58.82%；主要銷貨客戶亦以代號A揭露，占銷貨淨額26.38%，公司說明營收成長主要受惠AI伺服器應用成長及Future併入效益。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年：公司已實現營收與獲利歷史高檔，年報指出上半年受關稅與匯率波動影響，但AI相關半導體需求升溫，歐美市場庫存去化後復甦，資料中心、通訊強勁成長，工業與儀器穩健復甦，PC、消費性、手機改善，車用平穩。2026年：公司預期全球半導體產業由AI運算、通訊需求、車用與工業電子庫存去化後復甦、記憶體價格上漲推動；依公司引用 Gartner 2025年12月預估，2026年不含記憶體半導體成長約17.5%，含記憶體整體半導體成長約32.6%。文曄2026年第一季法說展望中位數為合併營收新台幣4,750億元、年增約92%，稅後EPS中位數約4.8元、年增約99%，並指出AI基礎設施投資、非AI工業及車用復甦為主要動能。2027至2028年：可驗證的公司明確數字較少，但年報列示多項2025-2029中期產業趨勢：車用半導體CAGR約8%，ADAS約14%以上，駕駛艙高性能電腦約16%，電子化動力總成約11%；公司2025年已將資料中心及伺服器占比提升至41.2%，計畫開發重點為AI伺服器與供電系統、機器人、電動車。長期策略包括整合Future全球資源與綜效、擴大產品代理線與授權區域、強化專業通路行銷、建立長期客戶與供應商關係、人才培育與穩健財務。主要風險包括：全球關稅與貿易政策、匯率波動、營運資金與庫存週轉壓力、主要供應商與主要客戶集中度高、AI伺服器需求若低於預期、半導體循環反轉、原廠代理權調整、併購整合執行風險、資安與全球供應鏈韌性風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 祥碩科技股份有限公司 5269 台股上市公司，為文曄主要股東之一；ASMedia 亦列於文曄代理電子元件品牌清單，屬上游IC設計／高速傳輸控制晶片供應鏈相關企業。
  • 聯發科技股份有限公司 2454 台股上市IC設計公司，MediaTek 列於文曄代理電子元件品牌清單，屬手機、通訊、消費性與智慧終端晶片供應來源之一。
  • 南亞科技股份有限公司 2408 台股上市記憶體公司，Nanya 列於文曄代理電子元件品牌清單，屬記憶體供應來源之一。
  • 新唐科技股份有限公司 4919 台股上市微控制器與半導體公司，Nuvoton 列於文曄代理品牌，屬微元件積體電路與控制晶片供應來源之一。
  • 瑞昱半導體股份有限公司 2379 台股上市IC設計公司，Realtek 列於文曄代理品牌，屬通訊、網通與連接晶片供應來源之一。
  • 矽力杰股份有限公司 6415 台股上市電源管理IC公司，Silergy 列於文曄代理品牌，屬類比與電源管理IC供應來源之一。
  • 國巨股份有限公司 2327 台股上市被動元件公司，Yageo 列於文曄代理品牌，屬被動元件供應來源之一。
  • 台灣半導體股份有限公司 5425 台股上櫃分離式元件公司，2024年年報重要契約列示為半導體產品代理經銷對象之一。
  • Intel Corporation 美國上市半導體公司，Intel 列於文曄代理品牌，屬處理器與平台晶片供應商。
  • Broadcom Inc. 美國上市半導體公司，Broadcom 列於文曄代理品牌，屬網通、資料中心與連接晶片供應商。
  • Micron Technology, Inc. 美國上市記憶體公司，Micron 列於文曄代理品牌，且年報重要契約列示 Micron Semiconductor Asia Pte. 為半導體產品代理經銷對象。
  • Qualcomm Incorporated 美國上市半導體公司，Qualcomm 列於文曄代理品牌，屬手機、通訊與智慧終端晶片供應商。
  • STMicroelectronics N.V. 歐洲上市半導體公司，STMicroelectronics 列於文曄代理品牌，年報重要契約列示 STMicroelectronics Asia Pacific Ltd. 為代理經銷對象。
  • onsemi 美國上市半導體公司，onsemi 列於文曄代理品牌，年報重要契約列示 ON Semiconductor Trading Sarl 為代理經銷對象。
  • NXP Semiconductors N.V. 荷蘭／美國上市半導體公司，NXP 列於文曄代理品牌，年報重要契約列示 NXP Semiconductors Netherlands B.V. 為代理經銷對象。
Downstream
  • 客戶A（名稱未揭露） 2025年年報因契約約定以代號揭露，114年度占文曄銷貨淨額26.38%，關係為非關係人；公司說明營收成長受惠AI伺服器應用，推測該客戶可能與大型資料中心或AI伺服器供應鏈相關，但實際名稱無法確認。
  • 資訊電子通訊產品之品牌及製造商（OBM／ODM／OEM） 年報定義之下游族群，包含資料中心及伺服器、通訊、手機、PC、消費性電子、汽車電子、工業與儀器等終端產品品牌商與製造商；個別公司名稱多未揭露。
  • 雲端資料中心與AI伺服器客戶群 2025年資料中心及伺服器應用約占營收41.2%，為最大應用領域；公司未揭露具名客戶，涵蓋AI加速器、高速互連、電源管理與伺服器供應鏈需求。
  • 汽車電子、工業自動化與能源管理客戶群 公司策略性拓展下游，對應ADAS、車載HPC、電子化動力總成、工業4.0、交通運輸、測試量測、能源管理等應用；個別客戶未揭露。

Competitors

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.