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3090

日電貿 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 日電貿 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 26Quality 70Growth 65Momentum 98Chips 25

Is 日電貿 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 71th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 81th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.6% of volume (net sell).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.68
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 港商麥格理 holds 3,022 lots
  • sellers have 18,394 lots left, ~630 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +191% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 港商麥格理 has accumulated 3,022 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 9,421 lots, has sold 31%, 6,537 left, ~46 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +6.42pp, mid holders +8, retail -7.14pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -942 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
港商麥格理花旗環球國泰證券永豐金證券群益金鼎台新
Distributing
摩根大通新加坡商瑞銀台灣摩根士丹利元大證券美商高盛美林
Desks
own scale
凱基-站前凱基-台北國泰-板橋凱基
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 港商麥格理 +3,022
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +2,759
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +1,971
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +1,915
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎 +1,611
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 台新 +1,105
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 6,537 left
    sold 31%· ~46 sessions to clear
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 5,125 left
    sold 31%· ~22 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 1,516 left
    sold 71%· ~5 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 1,598 left
    sold 69%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 2,373 left
    sold 46%· ~42 sessions to clear
  • 美林 1,238 left
    sold 50%· ~36 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 凱基-站前 -1,191
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -746
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 國泰-板橋 -670
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -658
    unclassified
Still selling 18,394 lots ~630 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +13,737 absorbed / -8,995 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

42 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-01)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 68.3%, Sample 41, Median +2.56%, Excess +1.36%, Beat mkt rate 53.7%；60-day: Win 70%, Sample 40, Median +3.93%, Excess +5.19%, Beat mkt rate 60%；120-day: Win 71.8%, Sample 39, Median +11.81%, Excess +14.5%, Beat mkt rate 48.7%

120 days after: historical avg +24.17%

20-day +2.86%
60-day +9.89%
120-day +24.17%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
68.3%
70%
71.8%
Sample
41
40
39
Median
+2.56%
+3.93%
+11.81%
Excess
+1.36%
+5.19%
+14.5%
Beat mkt rate
53.7%
60%
48.7%

Over 39 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 24.17%, beat the market by 14.5 pts; win rate 71.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 784+13.7% +15.1% 83.5% -6.5%
20-40 450+60.3% +24.3% 86.4% +48.5%
40-60 325+40.2% +19.8% 88.9% +36.4%
60-80 309+23.7% +8.1% 81.9% +12.5%
80-100 You are here1158+20.3% +17.8% 81.3% -0.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 63.02, at the 100.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+11.4%
Win rate 80.4% Excess +2.4%
598d
+23.6%
Win rate 69.9% Excess +22.1%
472d
Now
+13.9%
Win rate 74.7% Excess +4.2%
1116d
60-day momentum down
+7.2%
Win rate 66.1% Excess +1.3%
457d
+14.3%
Win rate 93.9% Excess +12%
147d
+14.4%
Win rate 87% Excess -4%
355d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1116 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.9%, win rate 74.7%, beat the market by 4.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

81 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.82%, win rate 68.3%, beating the market by +2.33 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.55%, win rate 58.7%, beating the market by +2.85 pts on average.

What does 日電貿 do? Company profile

電子零組件業／電子零組件通路、被動元件代理 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

日電貿股份有限公司成立於1993年1月4日，總部位於新北市新店區中正路四維巷1弄4號1樓，統一編號84116878。公司於2002年4月16日公開發行、2002年6月25日興櫃、2003年11月10日上櫃、2007年12月31日轉上市。依2026年公開股本資料，實收資本額約新台幣28.76億元，已發行普通股287,567,150股；2025年年報列示至2025年4月13日集團員工374人。官方公司治理頁面列董事長為鄭文宗、總經理為于耀國。主要股東依公司官網2026年3月24日資料，文曄科技股份有限公司持有102,000,000股、持股35.47%，為最大股東；其他前十大包括復華台灣科技優息ETF保管專戶、宗新投資、文青投資、周煒凌、中國信託受託保管限制型股票信託專戶、蘇門答臘投資、美商摩根大通託管投資專戶、李坤蒼、花旗受託保管柏克萊資本證券投資專戶等。

Business

日電貿是電子零組件專業通路商，核心商業模式為代理國際與國內電子零組件品牌，透過台灣、中國、香港與亞太據點供應下游電子製造客戶，並提供庫存調度、物流、技術支援與一站式採購服務；公司主要業務不是自製生產，年報亦載明其主要為經銷代理銷售，研發活動有限或無研發部門。依113年度年報營收結構，陶瓷電容新台幣57.52億元、占47.37%；固態電容25.60億元、占21.08%；電解電容12.41億元、占10.22%；半導體11.27億元、占9.29%；發光二極體5.41億元、占4.45%；其他9.21億元、占7.59%。應用市場依113年度年報，資訊類占25.86%，涵蓋IPC、伺服器、主機板、筆電、顯示卡、網路攝影機等；電源占18.25%，涵蓋電源供應器、UPS、逆變器、太陽能；代工占17.95%；通訊占11.03%，涵蓋手機、網通、雲端設備；消費性市場占3.11%；其他占23.80%，涵蓋車用電子、工業控制、IoT等。主要代理品牌包括Nippon Chemi-Con、Panasonic、Sumida、AIC tech、ALPS ALPINE、Samsung、KEMET、KYOCERA AVX、TDK、EVERLIGHT、Rubycon、GENESYS、Nisshinbo Micro Devices、Asahi Kasei Microdevices，以及部分自有品牌或子公司品牌如KTS、UWA。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年已由AI伺服器與高階被動元件需求帶動，公司全年合併營收約157.28億元、年增約29.54%，創歷史新高；2026年第1季營收約44.9億元、毛利率約19.8%、EPS約1.68至1.70元，顯示高階MLCC、鉭質電容、固態電容與電源相關產品組合改善。2025至2028年的主要成長動能預期來自AI伺服器、HPC、資料中心電源升級、GPU／ASIC平台更新、網通與Wi-Fi 7、車用電子、儲能、太陽能逆變器、低軌衛星、工控與東南亞／印度供應鏈移轉。公司年報明確提到114年聚焦AI伺服器、車用、電信設備、網通裝置、低軌衛星、Wi-Fi 7等高階規格應用；新聞與法說摘要則指出AI伺服器功率提升使MLCC用量與容量需求大幅增加，高階MLCC交期拉長、鉭質電容有漲價情形，且公司布局越南、泰國、印度等海外市場。2027至2028年若NVIDIA、AMD、自研ASIC與雲端CSP資本支出延續，高容值、高耐溫、高壓、高可靠度被動元件需求可能維持結構性成長；但此屬依產業趨勢與公司法說內容推估，需持續追蹤訂單能見度與供應商產能。主要風險包括AI伺服器需求循環反轉、被動元件缺貨轉為過剩、日圓與美元匯率波動、代理權變動、上游原廠供貨配置、下游客戶庫存修正、中國消費性電子與PC/NB需求不振、東南亞據點擴張成本、以及文曄成為大股東後通路整合與治理變化。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Nippon Chemi-Con 日本上市／海外供應商；日電貿主要代理其鋁質電解電容、固態電容等電子零組件。
  • Panasonic 日本上市／海外供應商；日電貿及台灣交邦代理其電子零組件產品線。
  • Sumida 日本上市／海外供應商；日電貿代理其電感等電子零組件。
  • Samsung 韓國上市集團／海外供應商；日電子公司代理其電子零組件，包含被動元件相關產品。
  • KEMET 海外品牌，已併入國巨集團體系；日電子公司代理其電容等電子零組件，因品牌本身非台股掛牌故stock_id填null。
  • KYOCERA AVX 日本／海外電子零組件供應商；日電子公司代理其被動元件。
  • TDK 日本上市／海外供應商；日電子公司代理其電子零組件。
  • 億光電子 2393 台股上市LED供應商；公司簡介與年報提及代理EVERLIGHT電子零組件。
  • 創惟科技 6104 台股上櫃IC供應商；公司簡介提及代理創惟零組件，屬半導體產品線來源之一。
  • Rubycon 日本未上市或非台股掛牌供應商；日電子公司代理其電解電容相關產品。
  • Nisshinbo Micro Devices 日本海外供應商；通盛主要代理其電子零組件。
  • Asahi Kasei Microdevices 日本海外供應商；通盛主要代理其電子零組件。
Downstream
  • 甲公司 年報揭露之主要客戶代稱；113年度銷貨占比10.57%，公司未公開實名，推定屬電子製造或代工客戶。
  • 乙公司 年報揭露之114年度截至前一季主要客戶代稱；占當期銷貨13.68%，公司未公開實名。
  • 伺服器、IPC、主機板、筆電、顯示卡及網路攝影機客戶群 下游資訊應用客戶群；113年度資訊市場營收占25.86%，未揭露個別公司名稱。
  • 電源供應器、UPS、逆變器、太陽能與儲能客戶群 下游電源應用客戶群；113年度電源市場營收占18.25%，受AI伺服器與高功率電源升級帶動。
  • 電子代工／EMS／ODM客戶群 下游代工客戶群；113年度代工市場營收占17.95%，公司未揭露個別客戶名稱。
  • 手機、網通與雲端設備客戶群 下游通訊應用客戶群；113年度通訊市場營收占11.03%。
  • 車用電子、工業控制與IoT客戶群 下游其他應用客戶群；113年度其他市場營收占23.80%，包含汽車電裝、工業控制設備、IoT等。

Competitors

  • 禾伸堂 3026 台股上市電子零組件公司；日電貿年報列為主要競爭對手，產品涵蓋被動元件、主動元件、系統模組等。
  • 蜜望實 8043 台股上櫃電子零組件通路／代理公司；日電貿年報列為競爭對手，產品包含積層陶瓷電容及電感等。
  • 堡達 3537 台股上櫃電子零組件通路商；日電貿年報列為競爭對手，產品包含被動元件、主動元件等。
  • 臺灣金山電子 8042 台股上櫃電容器廠；日電貿年報列為競爭對手，主要產品為鋁質電解電容器。
  • 立隆電子 2472 台股上市被動元件廠；日電貿年報列為競爭對手，產品包括鋁質電解電容器、鋁箔及電子材料。
  • 凱美 2375 台股上市被動元件廠；日電貿年報列為競爭對手，產品包括鋁質電解電容器、濾波器、直流馬達風扇等。
  • 國巨 2327 台股上市全球被動元件大廠；雖未在日電貿年報競爭表中列名，但因KEMET、鉭質電容、MLCC與被動元件供應鏈定位，屬產業可比公司與上游品牌體系之一。
  • 華新科 2492 台股上市被動元件廠；MLCC、電阻等產品與日電貿代理銷售之被動元件市場有交集，屬產業可比公司。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.