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3511

矽瑪 Electronic Components As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 矽瑪 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 39Quality 21Growth 71Momentum 68Chips 60

Is 矽瑪 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 23th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.7%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 58th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 63th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.8% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 27.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.64
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新光-台中 holds 822 lots
  • sellers have 233 lots left, ~63 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +11% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新光-台中 has accumulated 822 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 210 lots, has sold 42%, 122 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.26pp, mid holders +0, retail -1.04pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -213 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新光-台中富邦-敦南凱基-苗栗國泰-敦南摩根大通元大-竹山
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利美林統一港商野村華南永昌-麻豆富邦-員林
Desks
own scale
元富-城東凱基-台北國票-中港富邦-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新光-台中 +822
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-敦南 +218
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-苗栗 +193
    sold 7%
  • 國泰-敦南 +147
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +141
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-竹山 +135
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 122 left
    sold 42%· paused recently
  • 美林 88 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 統一 49 left
    sold 62%· ~6 sessions to clear
  • 港商野村 76 left
    sold 37%· ~63 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-麻豆 26 left
    sold 78%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 富邦-員林 47 left
    sold 51%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元富-城東 -289
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -160
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 國票-中港 -129
    unclassified
  • 富邦-台北 -125
    unclassified
Still selling 233 lots ~63 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,400 absorbed / -241 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 27.47%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

77 historical occurrences (since 2009-02-16)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.9%, Sample 71, Median +1.5%, Excess +3.38%, Beat mkt rate 47.9%；60-day: Win 49.3%, Sample 71, Median -0.14%, Excess +6.82%, Beat mkt rate 45.1%；120-day: Win 55.7%, Sample 70, Median +5.31%, Excess +7.51%, Beat mkt rate 50%

120 days after: historical avg +11.93%

20-day +3.98%
60-day +8.95%
120-day +11.93%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.9%
49.3%
55.7%
Sample
71
71
70
Median
+1.5%
-0.14%
+5.31%
Excess
+3.38%
+6.82%
+7.51%
Beat mkt rate
47.9%
45.1%
50%

Over 70 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 11.93%, beat the market by 7.51 pts; win rate 55.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 96+14.1% +10% 56.2% -36.2%
20-40 221-17.3% -18.5% 22.2% -44.2%
40-60 108-9% -10% 28.7% -22.9%
60-80 You are here348+41.8% +44.2% 86.5% +7.5%
80-100 446+11% +5.5% 57.6% +3.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 21.01, at the 63.3th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-15.8%
Win rate 18.3% Excess -22.7%
180d
+5.2%
Win rate 56.2% Excess -1.6%
96d
+12%
Win rate 58.8% Excess +1.5%
427d
60-day momentum down
-6.7%
Win rate 36.1% Excess -26.2%
180d
Now
+13.7%
Win rate 92.5% Excess +8.7%
107d
+21.6%
Win rate 65.2% Excess +11.1%
348d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 107 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.7%, win rate 92.5%, beat the market by 8.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.78%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by +5.15 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg -3.72%, win rate 41.2%, beating the market by -7.43 pts on average.

What does 矽瑪 do? Company profile

電子零組件業；連接器、線材與電子模組 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

3511 對應證券為矽瑪科技股份有限公司，為台灣櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司登記設立日為 2003/12/15，公開發行日 2006/01/17，興櫃日 2007/11/21，上櫃日 2009/02/16；總部位於桃園市桃園區中正路1351號14樓。董事長為黃漢州，總經理為胡若堯；2026/05/28 股東常會改選董事後，佳世達科技法人代表黃漢州獲推選為董事長。實收資本額約新台幣799,729,450元，普通股發行股數79,972,945股。2024年報揭露截至2025年3月底員工732人，2024年底員工702人。主要股東依2024年報截至2025/03/29資料為佳世達科技股份有限公司持股30,000,000股、37.51%，達利貳投資股份有限公司持股5,500,000股、6.87%，達利投資股份有限公司持股5,390,000股、6.73%。公司2020年納入佳世達集團後，定位為佳世達大艦隊旗下連接器與線材解決方案公司。公司官網亦提到 Simula 品牌源流始於1990年，但台灣公開資訊與公司登記之公司設立日為2003/12/15，故本欄以公開資訊設立日為準。

Business

矽瑪主要從事電子連接器、線材、線束、Cable Assembly、PCBA整合與電子模組產品之研發、製造與銷售，功能為電源、影音訊號與電子訊號傳遞。應用涵蓋消費性電子、穿戴裝置、車用電子、網通、工業與醫療設備。2024年報揭露2024年營收新台幣1,768,710仟元，較2023年2,039,055仟元衰退13%，稅後淨損149,941仟元、EPS -1.26元；主要原因為車用與穿戴式出貨成長，但子公司同星科技之Docking Station擴充基座受客戶庫存去化拖累。2024年營收結構：車用、醫療及工業產品1,341,915仟元、75.87%；穿戴式產品254,230仟元、14.37%；消費用產品169,051仟元、9.56%；其他3,514仟元、0.20%。2025年第1季營收結構：車用、醫療及工業產品82.79%、消費用產品9.20%、穿戴式產品7.82%、其他0.19%。銷售地區以外銷為主，2024年外銷1,419,414仟元、80.25%，內銷349,296仟元、19.75%。產品線包括USB Type-C、USB、Pogo Pin、磁吸連接器、M系列工業連接器、重型互連、圓形連接器、線束與客製化解決方案；官網標示USB Type-C可用於醫療、車用與工業，支援高達40Gbps、PD 240W與8K顯示等規格。商業模式以Design-in/JDM共同設計開發、客製化連接器與線材模組、少量多樣且高認證門檻應用為核心，透過台灣與中國深圳等製造據點、佳世達集團資源及國際代理/通路服務客戶。主要客戶依年報以A、B、C、D、E公司匿名揭露，其中2024年A公司占13.99%、B公司占13.88%、C公司占10.60%；B公司與發行人關係為母公司及關聯企業，推定與佳世達集團相關，但年報未揭露實名。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以「車用/醫療/工業高附加價值應用、高速傳輸、AI伺服器/AIoT、雲端落地與自動化產線」為主軸。公司2024年報的2025營業計畫預期全球貿易成長有利外銷，全年銷售量與金額可望較2024年成長；重要政策為搶攻車用、醫療與工業，利用Front-End Design-in與母集團整合優勢爭取客戶，同時發展3C Docking Station、警/軍用車燈、AI Server與AIoT連接器、線材及終端產品，並以自動化降低成本。2025/11法說與媒體報導指出，車用、AI及雲端落地訂單需求強勁，動能可望延續至2026年上半年；雲端落地聚焦車隊管理、醫療、工控等高毛利市場，AI落地包含無人機、人形機器人與AI伺服器端線材模組，高頻高速線材已進入客戶實驗場域與資格測試，管理層預期AI相關產品未來2至3年成為主要成長來源。2026年前5月營收約770,020仟元、年增約2.9%，其中2026/05單月153,820仟元、年增27.47%，顯示低基期後有回溫跡象，但全年與獲利仍須觀察。2027至2028年推估成長動能來自USB4/TBT5/PCIe Gen5/6、AI資料中心、車用乙太網、工業自動化、醫療連接器與區域化供應鏈需求；公司長期計畫包括成為車用與AI伺服器等特定應用供應鏈關鍵角色，深耕全球市場與可能區域據點如越南、墨西哥、東歐。主要風險包括：連接器價格競爭激烈、品牌與市占率較全球大廠小、研發資源有限、人才招募留任困難、Docking Station客戶庫存去化、客戶集中度、匯率與關稅、上游銅材/塑膠/電鍍材料價格波動、車用及醫療認證週期長、AI伺服器與機器人訂單是否能量產落地仍有不確定性。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 銅合金、黃銅、磷青銅材料供應商 連接器端子主要原料；年報說明金屬材料為最大成本項，實際供應商未揭露。
  • 華新麗華 1605 台股上市銅材與線纜相關公司；屬連接器產業可能上游材料類別，未確認為矽瑪直接供應商。
  • 第一銅 2009 台股上市銅板帶材公司；屬連接器端子金屬材料可能上游，未確認為矽瑪直接供應商。
  • 塑膠料件與工程塑膠供應商 連接器絕緣/外殼塑料來源；年報列塑膠料件供應情形良好正常，但未揭露實名。
  • 台塑 1301 台股上市塑膠原料公司；屬塑膠材料可能上游，未確認為矽瑪直接供應商。
  • 南亞 1303 台股上市塑膠、電子材料與銅箔基板相關公司；屬塑膠/電子材料可能上游，未確認為矽瑪直接供應商。
  • 電鍍液與表面處理材料供應商 連接器端子需電鍍加工；年報指出電鍍材料為主要成本之一，實際供應商未揭露。
  • PCBA與電子料供應商 年報列PCBA、電子料為主要原料且供應良好正常；實際供應商未揭露。
  • 欣興 3037 台股上市PCB公司；屬PCBA/PCB可能上游類別，未確認為矽瑪直接供應商。
  • 燿華 2367 台股上市PCB公司；屬PCBA/PCB可能上游類別，未確認為矽瑪直接供應商。
Downstream
  • 佳世達科技股份有限公司及其關聯企業 2352 佳世達為矽瑪最大股東；2024年報主要銷貨客戶表中B公司與發行人關係為母公司及關聯企業，2024年占營收13.88%、2025年第1季占22.81%，但年報未揭露B公司實名。
  • A公司（未揭露） 2024年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶，2024年占營收13.99%；非關係人，未揭露是否上市或所在地。
  • C公司（未揭露） 2024年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶，2024年占營收10.60%；非關係人，未揭露是否上市或所在地。
  • D公司（未揭露） 2023年占營收17.81%、2025年第1季占16.35%的主要銷貨客戶；2024年未達10%未揭露金額，未揭露是否上市或所在地。
  • 車用電子、車隊管理與車聯網客戶 終端應用為車用、雲端落地與車隊管理；公司及媒體說明為近年成長重點，但客戶名單多未公開。
  • 醫療設備與健康照護客戶 終端應用為醫療與健康照護連接器、線材與磁吸/Pogo產品；公司具ISO13485相關品質系統，客戶名單未公開。
  • 工業自動化、工控與戶外設備客戶 終端應用為工控、工業連接器、M系列與重型互連；客戶名單未公開。
  • AI伺服器、無人機與機器人應用客戶 2025法說與媒體報導指出AI落地、AI伺服器端線材模組為新成長方向；目前多處於認證、小量交貨或訂單成長階段，客戶未公開。

Competitors

  • 正崴 2392 台股上市連接器、線材與3C零組件廠，與矽瑪在連接器/線材應用有競爭。
  • 信邦 3023 台股上市連接線組與電子零組件廠，聚焦工業、醫療、車用等高附加價值市場，與矽瑪部分應用重疊。
  • 健和興 3003 台股上市端子、連接器與車用/電力電子相關廠，與矽瑪在工業及車用連接元件有競爭。
  • 凡甲 3526 台股上櫃連接器廠，產品涵蓋伺服器、通訊與車用等連接器，屬同業。
  • 嘉澤 3533 台股上市高速連接器與CPU Socket大廠；在高階伺服器/高速互連領域具競爭與產業比較意義。
  • 宏致 3605 台股上市連接器與連接線廠，應用涵蓋NB、車用與消費電子，屬同業。
  • 佳必琪 6197 台股上市連接線、連接器與線束廠，與矽瑪在線材組裝與客製化連接解決方案競爭。
  • 良維 6290 台股上市線材與電源線組廠，與矽瑪在Cable Assembly部分應用有競爭。
  • 廣宇 2328 台股上市連接器、線纜與電子零組件廠，屬連接器同業。
  • 連展投控 3710 台股上市連接器相關集團，旗下連接器產品與矽瑪在部分消費與工業應用重疊。
  • Amphenol 美國上市全球連接器大廠，非台股；在車用、工業、醫療、資料中心等領域為全球級競爭者。
  • TE Connectivity 美國上市全球連接器與感測解決方案大廠，非台股；在車用、工業與醫療連接器具強勢地位。
  • Molex Koch旗下未上市全球連接器大廠，非台股；在高速、車用、工業與消費電子連接器具競爭力。
Sources（18）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.