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3708

上緯投控 Green Energy & Environment As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 上緯投控 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 94Quality 15Growth 88Momentum 49Chips 80

Is 上緯投控 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 6th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -0.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 0th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 0th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 70.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.63
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-市政 holds 12,174 lots
  • sellers have 2,241 lots left, ~240 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -8% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-市政 has accumulated 12,174 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 2,724 lots, has sold 31%, 1,889 left, ~106 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.73pp, mid holders -1, retail -2.62pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -1,094 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-市政美商高盛新加坡商瑞銀國泰-忠孝富邦-三重元大-草屯
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利美林新光-台南富邦證券玉山-台南群益金鼎-基隆
Desks
own scale
新光元大-桃園摩根大通國泰-敦南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-市政 +12,174
    sold 0%
  • 美商高盛 +1,877
    sold 6%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +580
    sold 18%· still adding
  • 國泰-忠孝 +108
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-三重 +107
    sold 0%
  • 元大-草屯 +76
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 1,889 left
    sold 31%· ~106 sessions to clear
  • 美林 746 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 新光-台南 65 left
    sold 78%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 41 left
    sold 86%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 玉山-台南 48 left
    sold 71%· ~44 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-基隆 100 left
    sold 33%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新光 -1,811
    unclassified
  • 元大-桃園 -805
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -557
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 國泰-敦南 -500
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 2,241 lots ~240 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +427 absorbed / -369 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -557 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 70.6%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

30 historical occurrences (since 2017-10-11)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 37.9%, Sample 29, Median -2.42%, Excess -2.86%, Beat mkt rate 24.1%；60-day: Win 35.7%, Sample 28, Median -8.72%, Excess -2.49%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；120-day: Win 35.7%, Sample 28, Median -16.64%, Excess -7.37%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%

120 days after: historical avg +3.46%

20-day -0.57%
60-day +3.99%
120-day +3.46%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
37.9%
35.7%
35.7%
Sample
29
28
28
Median
-2.42%
-8.72%
-16.64%
Excess
-2.86%
-2.49%
-7.37%
Beat mkt rate
24.1%
42.9%
28.6%

Over 28 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.46%, lagged the market by 7.37 pts; win rate 35.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here182+28.3% +17.4% 66.5% -11.2%
20-40 270+16.5% +10.7% 73.3% -10.1%
40-60 447-8.6% +0.1% 50.1% -25.5%
60-80 271+23.7% +14.3% 73.1% -3.3%
80-100 109-5.8% -15.5% 33.9% -18.1%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 2.8, at the 0.0th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+16.3%
Win rate 59.4% Excess -2.2%
224d
+12.3%
Win rate 40.6% Excess -7.2%
244d
-2.3%
Win rate 41.1% Excess -10.3%
197d
60-day momentum down
Now
+33.5%
Win rate 77.1% Excess +19.1%
170d
+0.5%
Win rate 43.4% Excess -10.2%
387d
+12%
Win rate 64.4% Excess +4.6%
177d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 170 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 33.5%, win rate 77.1%, beat the market by 19.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

9 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.53%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by +10.19 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

36 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.73%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -3.46 pts on average.

What does 上緯投控 do? Company profile

綠能環保、複合材料、新材料、產業控股 TWSE 上市

Overview

3708 為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，不是 ETF、ETN、特別股或權證。公司前身上緯企業由蔡朝陽於1992年創立，控股公司上緯國際投資控股於2016/08/31以股份轉換方式上市，2026年董事會通過更名為上緯國際控股股份有限公司以反映轉型。總部位於南投市東閔路588號。董事長蔡朝陽，總經理蔡孝德。公司歷程包括2009年上櫃、2010年由上櫃轉上市、2016年以3708換股上市；上緯新材料曾於2020年在上海科創板上市，2025年處分上緯新材59.21%股權後持股降至約20%。2026年5月法說資料列資本額新台幣9.18億元、全球員工232人（台灣）與60人（海外）；Yahoo 2026/01基本資料列股本10.775億元、已發行普通股107,751,865股，兩者可能因股本、庫藏股或資料更新時點不同而有差異。主要股東依公司官網主要股東頁揭露，包含蔡氏家族控股股份有限公司、徐靜鈴、上利投資有限公司、蔡朝陽等；Yahoo 2026/01資料列董監持股比例19.82%。

Business

上緯投控原為高性能樹脂與複合材料供應商，現轉型為產業控股集團，核心業務包含先進材料、循環經濟材料、航太複材與AI機器人。材料端主要產品包括環保高性能耐腐蝕材料、乙烯基酯樹脂、特種不飽和聚酯樹脂、風電葉片用灌注樹脂、模具樹脂、膠黏劑、風電葉片大樑用預浸料或拉擠樹脂、可回收熱固性環氧樹脂EzCiclo與CleaVER降解/回收技術；碳纖複材端供應風電預浸布、拉擠碳板、阻燃預浸布與航太/無人載具/機器人複材部件。2025年公司因處分上緯新材產生重大一次性業外利益，MoneyDJ報導2025年合併營收10.05億元、稅後淨利38.13億元、EPS 35.57元，獲利不可直接外推。富邦EBrokerDJ列2025年營收比重為其他60.19%、循環經濟材料35.80%、航太複合材料4.01%；2026年第一季法說整理列產品組合約為先進材料23%、循環經濟材料55%、航太複材14%、AI機器人5%、其他4%。商業模式以研發、生產與銷售高值化樹脂/複合材料為主，並透過控股與子公司布局航太複材、可回收材料、AI機器人平台與在地化系統整合。主要客戶與應用包括離岸風電葉片製造商與風機大廠（Siemens Gamesa、Vestas/MHI Vestas、TPI Composites、GE供應鏈等）、能源開發商RWE、航太/無人機與機器人客戶，以及高階CCL/PCB、AI伺服器與消費電子可回收材料應用；部分電子材料客戶因保密未揭露名稱。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年是結構轉折年：公司完成處分上緯新材大部分股權並認列處分利益，資金用於新事業與股東回饋，同時業務重心由傳統材料供應商轉向循環經濟材料、航太複材與AI機器人。2026年公司法說展望指出，台灣離岸風電區塊開發3-3期容量3.6GW、2030至2031年併網，選商機制納入ESG與環境友善項目，公司估算樹脂與拉擠板材約40至50億元商機；公司並揭露2025/08/29已與Siemens Gamesa、RWE合作使用約2,600噸EzCiclo於英國Sofia離岸風場可回收葉片，2026年續供第二個可回收環氧樹脂離岸風場，預計出貨約2,200噸。航太複材方面，公司定位為國際客戶亞洲OEM供應夥伴，推動AS9100D航太認證、ISO 9001與ISO 27001，目標切入美、歐、日客戶供應鏈。AI機器人方面，公司成立上緯智聯，發展台智寶TaiiBot品牌，訴求資安、在地化應用、NVIDIA邊緣運算與AWS雲端架構整合，並以可回收輕量化複材作為差異化。2026法說整理引用管理層指引，全年營收可能呈前低後高，先進材料15至18億元、循環經濟材料約2億元、航太材料約1.5億元、AI機器人超過1.5億元；此屬公司/法說口徑，需持續驗證。2027至2028年主要成長動能預期來自可回收風電葉片材料放量、電子材料/CCL環保環氧樹脂商品化、航太與無人機複材認證與量產、AI機器人商用場景拓展。主要風險包括：處分利益不可重複、上緯新材持股下降後合併營收基礎改變、風電案場時程與政策變動、原物料價格與匯率波動、航太與機器人認證/客戶導入時間不確定、電子材料客戶驗證週期長、與國際化工大廠及中國新材料廠競爭加劇。公司承諾2026至2028年股利政策不低於過往水準並視市場狀況買回庫藏股，但實際仍取決於現金流、投資節奏與董事會決議。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 基礎環氧樹脂等石化/樹脂原料供應商；同時在電子材料與樹脂產業鏈具有競合關係。
  • 長春化工股份有限公司 台灣未上市公司，MoneyDJ資料列為上緯新材基礎環氧樹脂主要供應商之一。
  • 贏創特種化學（Evonik） 德國化工公司，MoneyDJ資料列為環氧樹脂硬化劑供應商之一；非台股掛牌。
  • 亨斯邁化工（Huntsman） 美國上市化工公司，供應環氧樹脂硬化劑等材料，同時在風電樹脂/膠黏劑領域亦可能為競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • 安徽新遠科技 中國公司，MoneyDJ資料列為環氧樹脂稀釋劑供應商之一；非台股掛牌。
  • 上海華君化工 中國公司，MoneyDJ資料列為苯乙烯供應商之一；非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • Siemens Gamesa 國際風機大廠，為上緯風電葉片樹脂、可回收環氧樹脂EzCiclo的重要合作/客戶；非台股掛牌。
  • RWE 德國能源公司，與Siemens Gamesa及上緯合作英國Sofia離岸風場可回收葉片；非台股掛牌。
  • Vestas／MHI Vestas 國際風機大廠；過往資料顯示上緯供應風電葉片樹脂、膠黏劑、拉擠碳板等，非台股掛牌。
  • TPI Composites 美國上市風電葉片製造商，上偉碳纖官網列2021年正式供應TPI Composites風機材料；非台股掛牌。
  • GE Vernova供應鏈 上偉碳纖官網稱TPI為GE製造風機葉片廠，屬間接下游風電應用；非台股掛牌。
  • 高階CCL/PCB與AI伺服器材料客戶 公司2026展望指向CCL、AI伺服器、行動裝置與通訊用環保環氧樹脂；具體客戶多以保密合作揭露，未能確認台股代號。
  • 航太、無人載具與機器人客戶 艾若颯與上緯智聯布局航太複材、無人載具與AI機器人；多數客戶未公開，無法確認是否台股掛牌。

Competitors

  • 長興材料工業股份有限公司 1717 台股上市，特用化學與樹脂材料公司，在不飽和聚酯、塗料/電子化學材料及部分複合材料樹脂應用與上緯存在競合。
  • 南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司 1303 台股上市，環氧樹脂、塑膠與電子材料大廠，是上游供應商，也在樹脂/電子材料產業鏈具競爭或替代關係。
  • Hexion 美國化工公司，MoneyDJ列為風電葉片用樹脂與膠黏劑競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • Olin 美國上市化工公司，環氧樹脂與風電材料競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • Huntsman 美國上市化工公司，環氧樹脂、硬化劑與複合材料相關產品供應商，亦為競爭者；非台股掛牌。
  • Polynt Reichhold／AOC Aliancys／INEOS Enterprises 國際樹脂與複合材料公司，在環保耐腐蝕材料、乙烯基酯或不飽和聚酯樹脂領域與上緯競爭；非台股掛牌。
  • 惠柏新材、道生天合、康達新材、華昌聚合物 中國風電樹脂、膠黏劑或高分子材料廠商，與上緯新材料/上緯投控材料業務競爭；非台股掛牌。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.