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4904

遠傳 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 遠傳 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 42Quality 78Growth 56Momentum 65Chips 5

Is 遠傳 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 80th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 58th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -8.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.60
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 holds 36,818 lots
  • sellers have 11,968 lots left, ~451 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +21% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 新加坡商瑞銀 has accumulated 36,818 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 19,748 lots, has sold 66%, 6,790 left, ~208 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.03pp, mid holders +4, retail -0.86pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -11,268 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
新加坡商瑞銀台新證券國泰證券玉山證券國票-和平兆豐證券
Distributing
美商高盛摩根大通華南永昌美林香港上海匯豐永豐金-匯立
Desks
own scale
元大證券大和國泰統一台灣摩根士丹利
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +36,818
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新證券 +11,213
    sold 0%
  • 國泰證券 +10,086
    sold 12%· still adding
  • 玉山證券 +7,836
    sold 1%
  • 國票-和平 +6,098
    sold 0%
  • 兆豐證券 +5,367
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 6,790 left
    sold 66%· ~208 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 9,899 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌 2,654 left
    sold 56%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 美林 1,740 left
    sold 65%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 香港上海匯豐 721 left
    sold 76%· ~451 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-匯立 669 left
    sold 62%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大證券 -13,660
    unclassified
  • 大和國泰 -9,357
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 統一 -8,618
    unclassified
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -5,919
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 11,968 lots ~451 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +32,394 absorbed / -4,844 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -10,957 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

40 historical occurrences (since 2010-01-29)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 57.5%, Sample 40, Median +0.66%, Excess -0.16%, Beat mkt rate 42.5%；60-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 38, Median +2.63%, Excess +1.04%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%；120-day: Win 67.6%, Sample 37, Median +4.28%, Excess +1.69%, Beat mkt rate 43.2%

120 days after: historical avg +5.61%

20-day +1.59%
60-day +3.81%
120-day +5.61%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.5%
57.9%
67.6%
Sample
40
38
37
Median
+0.66%
+2.63%
+4.28%
Excess
-0.16%
+1.04%
+1.69%
Beat mkt rate
42.5%
47.4%
43.2%

Over 37 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.61%, beat the market by 1.69 pts; win rate 67.6%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 8%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

73 historical occurrences (since 2012-05-14)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 56.9%, Sample 72, Median +0.88%, Excess -0.69%, Beat mkt rate 40.3%；60-day: Win 55.7%, Sample 70, Median +1.31%, Excess -1.91%, Beat mkt rate 45.7%；120-day: Win 68.7%, Sample 67, Median +3.72%, Excess -3.74%, Beat mkt rate 35.8%

120 days after: historical avg +4.28%

20-day +0.98%
60-day +2.95%
120-day +4.28%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.9%
55.7%
68.7%
Sample
72
70
67
Median
+0.88%
+1.31%
+3.72%
Excess
-0.69%
-1.91%
-3.74%
Beat mkt rate
40.3%
45.7%
35.8%

Over 67 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.28%, lagged the market by 3.74 pts; win rate 68.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 22Insufficient data
20-40 98+25% +22.4% 100% +20.9%
40-60 470+11.6% +11.3% 91.1% -2.9%
60-80 1004+7.3% +6.7% 83.1% -13.2%
80-100 You are here1449+4.4% +3.7% 67.8% -11.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 27.79, at the 96.2th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(16d)
+4.6%
Win rate 74.5% Excess -3.6%
392d
Now
+1.5%
Win rate 58% Excess -5%
1391d
60-day momentum down
+22.4%
Win rate 100% Excess +14.8%
54d
+7.3%
Win rate 90.3% Excess -1.8%
514d
+3.3%
Win rate 62.4% Excess -8.2%
796d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1391 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.5%, win rate 58%, lagged the market by 5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

What does 遠傳 do? Company profile

通信網路業 臺灣證券交易所上市

Overview

4904 對應證券為遠傳電信股份有限公司，屬臺灣證券交易所上市普通股，產業類別為通信網路業。公司成立於1997年4月11日，上市日期為2005年8月24日，總部位於台北市內湖區瑞光路468號5樓，董事長為徐旭東，總經理為井琪。TWSE個股資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣360.70億元；公司登記與部分股市資料揭露實收資本額版本約新台幣360.57億元至360.77億元，差異可能來自限制員工權利新股或資料更新時點。2024年年報揭露截至2025年2月28日合併員工人數5,309人。2024年年報揭露主要股東包含遠鼎投資29.58%、國泰人壽4.93%、新光人壽4.85%、亞洲水泥4.01%、復華台灣科技優息ETF專戶3.90%、鴻海3.25%、國泰台灣ESG永續高股息ETF專戶3.00%、中華郵政2.94%、新制勞工退休基金1.50%、元大台灣高股息低波動ETF專戶1.45%。遠傳於2023年12月15日正式合併亞太電信，2024年1月完成第一階段基地台整併，2024年6月30日率先關閉3G網路。

Business

遠傳為行動與固定通信、企業ICT與數位生活服務營運商。2024年合併營收新台幣1,046.23億元，其中電信服務收入565.02億元、占54%，其他營業收入481.21億元、占46%。個人用戶服務包含月租型與預付型行動語音、行動上網、固定通信、市話、長途電話、007國際電話、070軟體電話、friDay影音、Spotify、來電答鈴、friDay購物、超級門票、帳單代收、停車繳費、保險、電子發票載具、遠傳守護網與AI防詐等。企業用戶服務包含行動、寬頻、固網語音、數據電路、VPN、IDC、雲端、資安、微軟LSP企業轉型服務、AWS/Azure/GCP/VMware等雲端整合，以及智慧城市、智慧交通、車聯網、智慧健康、智慧醫療、智慧製造、智慧校園、能源管理、充電服務、碳管理等新經濟解決方案。2024年企業用戶營收占整體營收23%。遠傳商業模式以月租與流量服務、裝置銷售、通路與數位生活加值、企業專案建置與維運、雲端與資安服務、IDC與資料電路、智慧城市與能源管理案場為主。年報揭露2024年無單一銷貨客戶占合併營收10%以上，主要客戶橫跨個人消費者、企業客戶、公部門、醫療院所、學校與智慧城市案場。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年重點為放大遠亞合併綜效、完成原亞太用戶整合、提升行動服務、固網與IDC效率，並擴大數位生活、企業ICT與AI商轉。公司2025年第四季法說揭露2025年第四季合併營收326.8億元、年增12.1%，EBITDA 98.2億元、年增4.7%，稅後淨利36.7億元、EPS 1.02元；2025全年行動服務營收達620億元、創近9年新高，5G月租型用戶滲透率與ARPU居同業之冠，擬配發2025年度現金股利每股3.81元。2026年公司定調為起飛年，策略為放大集團綜效、放大服務版圖、放大AI效益；公司法說資料預估2026年合併總營收1,174.8億元、年增6.5%，EBITDA 398.3億元、稅後盈餘141.7億元，EPS約3.93元。中長期到2028年的成長動能包括5G/5G-Advanced與AI原生網路升級、愛立信三年5G-A合作、網路切片與差異化連接服務、GSMA Open Gateway API、企業專網、IDC與雲端需求、智慧城市與智慧交通、智慧醫療、能源管理、微電網、EV充電、碳管理、資安與生成式AI導入。主要風險包含台灣行動門號市場高度飽和、三大電信價格與服務競爭、企業ICT案場景氣循環與政府標案時程、設備與手機採購受匯率及通膨影響、電費與能源成本、資安與個資法遵、NCC監理政策、5G投資回收期、AI與雲端解決方案需持續取得國際原廠合作與人才。2027至2028展望屬依公司策略、產業趨勢與既有投資方向之推估，尚未找到公司正式量化財測。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 愛立信 Ericsson 非台股掛牌；遠傳5G與5G-Advanced主要網路設備及技術合作夥伴，2026年簽署三年策略協議，導入5G-A軟體、無線電設備、AI網路自動化與資安/服務編排平台。
  • Nokia 非台股掛牌；台灣電信業常見5G與企業專網設備供應商，公開資料稱其為遠傳等業者5G設備主要供應商之一，但遠傳年報未揭露具名採購金額。
  • Amazon Web Services 非台股掛牌；遠傳企業雲端服務整合之公有雲平台合作方，透過博弘雲端等子公司提供AWS雲端規劃、建置、移轉與維運。
  • Microsoft Azure / Microsoft 非台股掛牌；遠傳為電信業取得微軟授權解決方案夥伴資格者，提供Azure、Microsoft 365、Copilot、永續雲與生成式AI導入服務。
  • Google Cloud 非台股掛牌；遠傳透過宏庭科技、博弘雲端提供GCP雲端服務，支援企業雲端遷移、資料分析與AI應用。
  • Broadcom / VMware 非台股掛牌；遠傳雲端服務整合VMware VCPP與Cloud Verify等企業雲端與混合雲能力。
  • Apple 非台股掛牌；遠傳透過德誼數位與門市銷售iPhone、iPad等終端裝置，帶動換機與高資費綁約。
  • 博弘雲端科技股份有限公司 台灣興櫃或非上市櫃狀態；遠傳雲端服務子公司/合作體系，提供AWS、GCP、Azure、Alibaba Cloud等多雲代管與整合服務。
Downstream
  • 個人行動通信用戶 非公司個體；月租型、預付型、5G、VoLTE、數位生活、內容、保險、帳單代收與裝置銷售之終端客戶。
  • 企業與公部門客戶 非單一公司；採用遠傳行動、固網、數據電路、VPN、IDC、雲端、資安、企業專網、智慧城市、智慧交通與能源管理服務。
  • 宏遠興業股份有限公司 1460 台股上市公司；年報揭露遠傳以5G企業專網協助其打造廠區智能物流AGV、儲位AI識別、無人搬運與全自動派車運輸系統。
  • 廣運機械工程股份有限公司 6125 台股上櫃公司；年報揭露遠傳合作產線巡檢AMR與MR組裝協作，以5G傳送3D設計圖資並結合AI比對。
  • 遠東新世紀股份有限公司 1402 台股上市公司；年報揭露遠傳與其打造5G智能工業遠距安防應用，結合5G企業專網、AI取像車、智慧安全帽與工業視覺平台。
  • 遠東百貨股份有限公司 2903 台股上市公司；遠傳於SOGO、大遠百等遠東集團場域建置自營充電樁，屬智慧能源與充電服務應用場域。
  • 醫療院所與地方政府 多為公部門或未上市機構；遠傳5G遠距診療導入全國多縣市、醫療院所與偏鄉山地離島服務，並與消防救護場景合作5G救護車。

Competitors

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.