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4908

前鼎 Communications & Internet As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 前鼎 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 16Quality 80Growth 79Momentum 92Chips 20

Is 前鼎 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~89% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.4%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 89th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 99th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 38.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.42
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-信義 holds 2,578 lots
  • sellers have 1,705 lots left, ~75 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +167% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-信義 has accumulated 2,578 lots since the start (sold 12%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 2,237 lots, has sold 42%, 1,296 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.05pp, mid holders +6, retail -7.99pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -253 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-信義花旗環球元大-汐止元大-竹科國票證券永豐金證券
Distributing
摩根大通美商高盛美林港商野村凱基-台北元大證券
Desks
own scale
華南永昌-竹北大昌華南永昌-板橋元大-中壢
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-信義 +2,578
    sold 12%
  • 花旗環球 +745
    sold 0%
  • 元大-汐止 +737
    sold 0%
  • 元大-竹科 +378
    sold 17%
  • 國票證券 +249
    sold 24%
  • 永豐金證券 +193
    sold 20%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 1,296 left
    sold 42%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 143 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 美林 632 left
    sold 38%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 225 left
    sold 77%· ~38 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 143 left
    sold 84%· paused recently
  • 元大證券 221 left
    sold 72%· ~4 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 華南永昌-竹北 -639
    unclassified
  • 大昌 -484
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-板橋 -202
    unclassified
  • 元大-中壢 -185
    unclassified
Still selling 1,705 lots ~75 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +591 absorbed / -1,518 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -179 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 38.46%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

66 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.8%, Sample 51, Median +2.63%, Excess +2.53%, Beat mkt rate 49%；60-day: Win 47.1%, Sample 51, Median -1.53%, Excess +1.84%, Beat mkt rate 43.1%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 50, Median +4.44%, Excess -0.98%, Beat mkt rate 44%

120 days after: historical avg +7.81%

20-day +3.74%
60-day +5.74%
120-day +7.81%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.8%
47.1%
60%
Sample
51
51
50
Median
+2.63%
-1.53%
+4.44%
Excess
+2.53%
+1.84%
-0.98%
Beat mkt rate
49%
43.1%
44%

Over 50 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.81%, lagged the market by 0.98 pts; win rate 60%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 351+127.4% +147.7% 92.9% +108.8%
20-40 363+19.7% +22.8% 64.2% +12.1%
40-60 523+29.8% +21.4% 76.1% +19.1%
60-80 525+11.2% +8.5% 63.2% -4.5%
80-100 You are here1281+8.5% +0.4% 50.6% -12.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 97.47, at the 99.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+27.9%
Win rate 49.8% Excess +23.1%
235d
+18.4%
Win rate 54.4% Excess +16.3%
388d
Now
+5.6%
Win rate 48.3% Excess -2.6%
1090d
60-day momentum down
+17.5%
Win rate 65.5% Excess +12.6%
316d
+21.3%
Win rate 69.4% Excess +13.3%
415d
+12.9%
Win rate 55.4% Excess -2.1%
719d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1090 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.6%, win rate 48.3%, lagged the market by 2.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

26 times historically; 60-day forward avg +21.28%, win rate 66.7%, beating the market by +17.71 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

56 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.07%, win rate 56.4%, beating the market by +5.47 pts on average.

What does 前鼎 do? Company profile

通信網路業；光通訊主動元件與光收發模組 上櫃（證券櫃檯買賣中心）

Overview

4908 對應證券為前鼎光電，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於 1998-07-20，公開發行日為 2000-05-25，上櫃日為 2002-02-27，總部位於新竹縣湖口鄉新竹工業區自強路三號。董事長為葉政彥，總經理暨發言人為李昌祐。公司實收資本額為新台幣 782,169,070 元，已發行普通股 78,216,907 股，無特別股。113 年報揭露 2024 年營業收入淨額 936,225 仟元，營業毛利 415,851 仟元，毛利率 44.42%，稅後淨利 220,347 仟元，EPS 2.82 元；2025 年全年營收依公開月營收資料約 814,688 仟元，較 2024 年減少約 12.98%；2026 年 1Q 董事會通過財報顯示營收約 2.65 億元、稅後淨利 5,921 萬元、EPS 0.76 元；2026 年 5 月單月營收 90,035 仟元，年增 38.47%，2026 年前 5 月累計營收 429,524 仟元，年增 23.49%。員工規模方面，113 年報揭露 2024 年底員工 265 人，2025-04-30 為 262 人。主要股東依 113 年報截至 2025-04-27 前十大股東包括豪建投資 9.63%、書仁投資 8.91%、九揚投資 8.59%、宮前五金 3.50%、建碩投資 2.42%、葉政彥 2.23%、葉明彥 2.17%、安昕投資 1.68%、禾泰投資 1.65%、永豐商銀託管永豐金代理人公司投資專戶 1.21%。

Business

前鼎主要業務為光收發模組、光纖接頭或次模組、相關光纖通訊產品之設計、研發、生產與銷售，並提供以光收發模組為基礎的影音光纖延線器、TO-can 封裝、SMT 代工、檢驗維修加工與安裝協助。113 年營收結構為光收發模組 900,379 仟元、占 96.17%；光纖接頭 524 仟元、占 0.06%；其他原料及商品 35,322 仟元、占 3.77%。主要產品應用在網路與通訊設備、資料傳輸設備、有線電視網路設備、固網光纖到戶 FTTH、手機基地台前傳/中傳/後傳、AI 與資料中心、工業自動化等。銷售區域以外銷為主，113 年內銷 181,582 仟元、占 19.39%；外銷 754,643 仟元、占 80.61%，其中亞洲及其他地區占 48.41%、歐洲占 18.48%、美洲占 13.72%。公司商業模式屬光通訊模組 ODM/OEM 與客製化製造，強調完整產品線、歐美日國際大廠認證供應商、可承接量產、客製化與工業級寬溫產品。主要客戶名稱因契約或揭露規範以代號揭露；113 年前兩大客戶壬公司與己公司分別占銷貨淨額 24.30% 與 10.79%，114 年截至第一季前兩大客戶己公司與丙公司分別占 13.31% 與 12.12%，年報說明壬及己客戶因產品認證通過而增加訂單。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主要成長動能來自 AI 資料中心頻寬升級、400G/800G/1.6T 光模組需求、CPO 共同封裝光學外置光源 ELS/ELSFP、5G 與 FTTH 升級、工業級與客製化利基市場。公司 113 年報指出 400G 以上光收發模組出貨量 2024 年已達約 2,000 萬個，估 2025 年超過 3,000 萬個，且全球高速數據中心、AI、IoT、VR、車聯網與電信網路建設將帶動光元件需求；公司 2025 年目標光纖模組銷售 145 萬個，400G/800G 產品陸續完成驗證並逐步商轉，應用鎖定雲端運算、AR/VR、AI、5G。研發上，113 年完成或推進 25GPON ONU/OLT OSA、25GPON SFP56、800G OSFP AOC、800G OSFP SR8、200G QSFP FR4，並研發 400G OSFP DR4、800G OSFP DR8、100G BIDI QSFP28 LR1/ER1。2026 年法說資訊顯示公司已切入 CPO 可插拔外接雷射光源 ELSFP，兩年前開始研發，2026 年起小量出貨，可提供 16 波長外置光源方案，並依客戶需求客製化；高功率雷射加工門檻高，公司規劃自購設備建置產線，市場仍屬起步，短期營收貢獻有限但 2027 年後具放量潛力。風險與挑戰包括陸韓廠低價競爭、歐美大廠垂直整合與外包供應鏈成本優勢、光模組同質化導致價格與毛利率壓力、關鍵零組件交期與成本波動、外銷與進口零組件導致匯率敏感、客戶認證與新產品導入時程不確定、CPO/1.6T 技術路線仍在早期且可能改變傳統可插拔模組需求節奏。2027 至 2028 的高成長情境需仰賴 800G/1.6T、ELSFP 或 CPO 相關產品通過客戶驗證並量產；此部分屬產業與公司法說推估，尚非已確定訂單。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 聯亞光電工業股份有限公司 3081 台股上櫃光通訊雷射二極體與磊晶/主動元件供應鏈公司；屬前鼎光收發模組所需光電主動元件上游類型，未確認為前鼎直接供應商。
  • 光環科技股份有限公司 3234 台股上櫃光通訊主動元件與次模組公司；屬 LD、PD、OSA 等上游或同業供應鏈類型，未確認為前鼎直接供應商。
  • 環宇通訊半導體控股股份有限公司 4991 台股上市化合物半導體磊晶/光通訊上游材料與元件供應鏈公司；屬光主動元件上游類型，未確認為前鼎直接供應商。
  • 華星光通科技股份有限公司 4979 台股上櫃光通訊元件與收發模組公司；可能同時位於主動元件/模組供應鏈與競爭端，未確認為前鼎直接供應商。
  • 未揭露之 A、D、E、Z 公司 113 年報主要供應商以代號揭露；供應內容對應光電主動元件、光纖被動元件、IC、PCB、被動電子元件、機構件等，因公司未公開名稱，無法判定是否台股掛牌。
  • Corning Inc. 美國上市公司，為全球光纖材料與光纖產業重要供應商；屬光纖通訊上游產業代表，未確認為前鼎直接供應商。
Downstream
  • 未揭露之壬公司、己公司、丙公司、乙公司 前鼎年報主要銷售客戶以代號揭露；113 年壬公司占 24.30%、己公司占 10.79%，114 年截至第一季己公司占 13.31%、丙公司占 12.12%；公司未公開名稱，無法判定是否台股掛牌。
  • 中華電信股份有限公司 2412 台股上市電信營運商；屬 5G、FTTH、骨幹網路等光收發模組終端應用端，未確認為前鼎直接客戶。
  • 台灣大哥大股份有限公司 3045 台股上市電信營運商；屬基地台前中後傳與固網寬頻建設終端應用端，未確認為前鼎直接客戶。
  • 遠傳電信股份有限公司 4904 台股上市電信營運商；屬 5G 與寬頻網路建設終端應用端，未確認為前鼎直接客戶。
  • 緯穎科技服務股份有限公司 6669 台股上市雲端資料中心伺服器與系統整合公司；屬 AI 資料中心高速光互連下游應用端，未確認為前鼎直接客戶。
  • 廣達電腦股份有限公司 2382 台股上市雲端伺服器與資料中心系統製造商；屬高速光收發模組終端系統應用端，未確認為前鼎直接客戶。
  • 歐美日通信設備廠商與各國代理商 公司年報稱台灣系統廠、代工廠及歐美通信設備廠商為目標合作對象，並透過各國代理商行銷；多數實際客戶未公開。

Competitors

  • 華星光通科技股份有限公司 4979 台股上櫃光通訊元件與光收發模組廠，產品與前鼎在光模組及資料中心/電信應用有重疊。
  • 光環科技股份有限公司 3234 台股上櫃光通訊主動元件與模組相關公司，為光通訊族群同業。
  • 上詮光纖通信股份有限公司 3363 台股上櫃光通訊被動元件與光纖連接產品公司，部分客戶與應用市場相近。
  • 波若威科技股份有限公司 3163 台股上櫃光通訊被動元件與網通零組件公司，屬光通訊供應鏈同業。
  • 聯鈞光電股份有限公司 3450 台股上市光通訊元件與模組相關供應鏈公司，屬高速光通訊與資料中心題材同業。
  • 訊芯科技控股股份有限公司 6451 台股上市光通訊與半導體封測相關公司，部分高速光通訊應用市場相近。
  • Coherent Corp. 美國上市光通訊元件與模組大廠，屬全球競爭者。
  • Lumentum Holdings Inc. 美國上市光通訊雷射與光元件大廠，屬全球競爭者與上游代表。
  • 中際旭創股份有限公司 中國 A 股光模組大廠，非台股掛牌，為 400G/800G/1.6T 高速光模組全球競爭者。
  • 新易盛通信技術股份有限公司 中國 A 股高速光模組廠，非台股掛牌，為資料中心光模組全球競爭者。
  • 上海劍橋科技股份有限公司 中國 A 股通信設備與光模組公司，非台股掛牌，為 400G/800G 光模組競爭者。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.