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5471

松翰 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 松翰 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 58Growth 71Momentum 85Chips 12

Is 松翰 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 59th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 82th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 100th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 27.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.34
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution, concentration falling — bearish

  • Distribution, concentration falling — bearish
  • 元大-斗信 holds 679 lots
  • sellers have 1,499 lots left, ~31 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +81% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-斗信 has accumulated 679 lots since the start (sold 12%), holding.
  • Main distributor 華南永昌-竹北 peaked at 1,525 lots, has sold 81%, 284 left, ~3 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.57pp, mid holders +3, retail +0.24pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,147 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-斗信新光-新竹富邦證券元大證券香港上海匯豐國泰-敦南
Distributing
華南永昌-竹北美商高盛美林兆豐-桃園第一金-高雄群益金鼎-東湖
Desks
own scale
華南永昌摩根大通台灣企銀凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-斗信 +679
    sold 12%
  • 新光-新竹 +656
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +460
    sold 0%
  • 元大證券 +405
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +390
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +381
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 華南永昌-竹北 284 left
    sold 81%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 195 left
    sold 81%· paused recently
  • 美林 325 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-桃園 271 left
    sold 39%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 第一金-高雄 238 left
    sold 30%· ~23 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-東湖 169 left
    sold 30%· paused recently

Desks

  • 華南永昌 -2,772
    unclassified
  • 摩根大通 -915
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣企銀 -758
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -390
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 1,499 lots ~31 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +3,642 absorbed / -2,108 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,608 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

22 historical occurrences (since 2009-11-18)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 59.1%, Sample 22, Median +2.53%, Excess +3.27%, Beat mkt rate 59.1%；60-day: Win 71.4%, Sample 21, Median +9.33%, Excess +4.34%, Beat mkt rate 47.6%；120-day: Win 60%, Sample 20, Median +5.17%, Excess +0.7%, Beat mkt rate 45%

120 days after: historical avg +10.43%

20-day +3.63%
60-day +9.84%
120-day +10.43%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
59.1%
71.4%
60%
Sample
22
21
20
Median
+2.53%
+9.33%
+5.17%
Excess
+3.27%
+4.34%
+0.7%
Beat mkt rate
59.1%
47.6%
45%

Over 20 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.43%, beat the market by 0.7 pts; win rate 60%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 27.33%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

59 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 48.9%, Sample 45, Median -0.46%, Excess +1.79%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%；60-day: Win 51.2%, Sample 43, Median +0.44%, Excess +1.45%, Beat mkt rate 44.2%；120-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 42, Median +0.92%, Excess -2.05%, Beat mkt rate 35.7%

120 days after: historical avg +8.13%

20-day +3.48%
60-day +7.5%
120-day +8.13%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48.9%
51.2%
52.4%
Sample
45
43
42
Median
-0.46%
+0.44%
+0.92%
Excess
+1.79%
+1.45%
-2.05%
Beat mkt rate
44.4%
44.2%
35.7%

Over 42 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.13%, lagged the market by 2.05 pts; win rate 52.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 399-12.5% -23% 32.1% -19%
20-40 148+23.4% +14% 66.2% +8.4%
40-60 408+31.9% +20.6% 71.6% +17.2%
60-80 722+25.5% +16.8% 61.8% +11.8%
80-100 You are here1347+2.6% -2.6% 45% -19%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 64.54, at the 99.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1.5%
Win rate 38.3% Excess -5.5%
162d
+9.7%
Win rate 69.8% Excess +2.7%
414d
Now
+6.1%
Win rate 49.7% Excess -5%
1014d
60-day momentum down
-2.2%
Win rate 41.5% Excess -4.6%
337d
+8.7%
Win rate 73.3% Excess +0.5%
315d
+3.9%
Win rate 50.7% Excess -4.9%
902d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1014 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.1%, win rate 49.7%, lagged the market by 5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

66 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.74%, win rate 46.9%, beating the market by -1.57 pts on average.

What does 松翰 do? Company profile

半導體業／IC設計 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

5471 對應證券為松翰科技股份有限公司，屬普通股，現為台灣證券交易所上市公司。公司成立於1996年7月13日，公開發行日為1999年6月24日，先於2000年11月27日上櫃，後於2003年8月25日轉上市。總部位於新竹縣竹北市台元街36號10樓之1。董事長為鮑世嘉，總經理為柯福順，發言人為潘銘鍠。實收資本額為新台幣1,678,770,620元，已發行普通股167,877,062股，無特別股。依113年度年報，114年5月8日員工合計474人，其中研發372人、業務29人、管理73人，研發人員占比高。董事與內部人持股方面，113年董事改選公告及年報揭露陳賢哲持股7,270,261股、鮑世嘉4,549,318股、熊健怡3,325,219股、潘銘鍠2,220,515股、柯福順578,602股、郭慶輝約360,907至261,000股左右，不同來源與日期略有差異；整體董監持股約10%至11%區間。2025年股東結構以本國個人為主，約83.7%，僑外投資約12.3%，本國法人約3.1%，政府機構約0.46%，本國金融機構約0.37%。

Business

松翰為無晶圓廠IC設計公司，主要負責線路設計、產品規格、軟硬體開發工具與Turnkey方案，晶圓製造、晶粒測試、切割與封裝由外部供應商配合完成。主要產品包括消費性IC、微控制器IC、多媒體影像控制IC、無線影音方案與光學辨識晶片組OID。113年度產品銷售組合為消費性IC 56%、多媒體IC 44%。消費性IC包含語音、音樂、DSP及32位元SoC平台，應用於互動式玩具、教育型玩具、手持遊戲機、電子書、玩具機器人、無人飛行器、家電、電競耳機及各類語音聲音產品。微控制器IC應用於空調控制板、電磁爐、微波爐、血壓計、耳溫槍、體重秤、滑鼠、鍵盤、耳機、電競周邊、BLDC馬達、小家電、工具機及車用領域。多媒體影像控制IC應用於筆記型電腦攝影機、高畫質USB影音控制晶片、通訊、錄影監控、人機介面、家用安全監控、無線耳機、麥克風、無線可視門鈴、無線影音遙控車與無人航拍機。OID結合光學、影像處理及印刷技術，應用於教育玩具、電子有聲書、電子白板、防偽、遊戲機、IPTV、線上教學及STEM教育。113年度銷售地區為中國76%、台灣23%、其他1%，顯示營收高度集中在中國與台灣客戶。113年度營收27.44466億元，年增5%，稅後淨利1.79090億元，EPS 1.07元；114年度合併營收26.75652億元，年減約2.5%，EPS 0.72元；115年前5月累計營收13.92306億元，年增24.99%，顯示2026年初需求明顯回溫。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為短中長期。2025年公司股東會資料推估114年度銷售數量約531,797仟顆，策略重點為深耕消費性電子，同時拓展微控制器與成長性較高的多媒體產品；114年度實際營收年減約2.5%，但2026年前5月累計營收已年增24.99%，顯示庫存調整後有復甦跡象。成長動能包括：一、AI PC與筆電攝影機，松翰已研發內建AI NPU的800萬像素HDR ISP，支援Microsoft HPD、Windows Hello與AI人臉辨識，適用於HPD AI筆電攝影機、外掛AI網路攝影機及AI影像辨識產品；二、32位元ARM Cortex-M4 MCU平台，已切入8KHz類比磁軸鍵盤完整方案，應用於PC電競周邊、智能家電、工控等領域，且年報稱已導入國際品牌大廠；三、BLDC馬達控制晶片、工業控制晶片、車規MCU與USB Type-C Power Delivery控制晶片，將產品由消費性電子逐步推向工控、車用及低功耗節能市場；四、OID由點讀筆延伸至手寫、STEM教育與成人手寫應用，公司並提到在印度設立據點、擴展越南等新興市場；五、5GHz高畫質、遠距離、低延遲無人載具圖傳方案，應用於FPV競速、航拍、物流、地理繪測、災害搶救、精準農業、環保與國防等領域。產業趨勢上，邊緣AI、AI攝影機、AI視覺感測、智慧家庭、醫療保健裝置、物聯網、電動車與工控半導體皆有利於其MCU與影像產品線。不過風險包括：消費性電子終端需求復甦不均、成熟製程可能產能過剩且價格競爭加劇、先進製程仍供需緊張、晶圓代工價格與產能具景氣循環、IC生命週期短且同質性高、中國IC設計業崛起造成價格及人才競爭、主要銷售地區集中中國、匯率與地緣政治及關稅政策不確定。2027至2028年的具體量化財測公司未公開，合理推論其成長將取決於AI PC HPD晶片量產滲透率、M4 MCU與BLDC/工控/車用平台放量、OID與印度/東南亞通路推廣成效，以及無人載具圖傳方案是否由專案型需求轉為常態出貨。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台積電 2330 晶圓代工供應商；年報明確指出主要原料晶圓由台積電、聯電及韓國廠商等供應。
  • 聯電 2303 晶圓代工供應商；年報明確指出主要原料晶圓由台積電、聯電及韓國廠商等供應。
  • 韓國晶圓代工廠商 年報僅稱韓國廠商等供應晶圓，未揭露公司名稱，非台股掛牌或名稱未確認。
  • 封裝測試代工廠商 年報指出與數家知名晶圓大廠及封裝測試代工廠合作以避免進貨集中，但未揭露具體封測廠名稱。
  • 光罩、晶粒測試、切割包裝供應商 依年報產製流程，松翰主要負責設計，光罩製作、晶圓製造、晶粒測試、切割包裝由供應商完成；具體公司未揭露。
Downstream
  • 主要銷貨客戶D（年報匿名） 113年度主要銷貨客戶，銷售金額301,331仟元，占全年銷貨淨額10.98%；114年第一季占12.19%。年報未揭露實際名稱。
  • 筆記型電腦與網路攝影機客戶 多媒體影像控制IC應用於筆電專用與高畫質USB影音控制晶片、HPD AI筆電攝影機、Windows Hello與AI人臉辨識產品；具體客戶未揭露。
  • PC電競周邊與國際品牌大廠 M4 MCU平台應用於8KHz類比磁軸鍵盤完整方案，年報稱已導入國際品牌大廠，但未揭露名稱。
  • 家電、醫療保健與工控設備廠商 MCU應用於小家電、空調控制板、電磁爐、微波爐、血壓計、耳溫槍、血糖機、工具機與BLDC馬達控制等終端產品；具體客戶未揭露。
  • 教育、STEM與OID方案商／通路商 OID晶片應用於教育玩具、電子有聲書、電子白板、線上教學與STEM教育，公司提到印度設點與代理機制推廣，但具體客戶未揭露。
  • 無人機與無線影音應用客戶 5GHz高畫質、遠距離、低延遲圖傳方案可用於FPV競速、航拍、物流、地理繪測、災害搶救、精準農業、環保與國防等，具體客戶未揭露。

Competitors

  • 盛群半導體 6202 台股上市IC設計公司，主力包含MCU，與松翰在消費性MCU、小家電、醫療與周邊控制應用存在競爭。
  • 新唐科技 4919 台股上市MCU與半導體公司，在MCU、工控、消費與車用相關應用與松翰部分產品線競爭。
  • 凌通科技 4952 台股上市IC設計公司，產品涵蓋消費性與多媒體控制晶片，與松翰消費性IC、語音及多媒體產品具競爭關係。
  • 義隆電子 2458 台股上市IC設計公司，主要在PC周邊、輸入控制與人機介面相關晶片；與松翰PC電競周邊MCU及部分控制晶片應用重疊。
  • 原相科技 3227 台股上櫃IC設計公司，主力為感測與影像相關晶片，在PC周邊、影像與感測應用上與松翰部分產品線相鄰或競爭。
  • 瑞昱半導體 2379 台股上市IC設計大廠，產品涵蓋PC、多媒體、通訊與影音控制，雖規模與主力產品不同，但在部分PC與多媒體控制市場具競爭或替代關係。
  • 國際MCU與影像晶片廠商 年報指出MCU市場高度集中於國際級大型廠商；無線網路攝影機晶片及車用監控攝影機晶片主要競爭對手為外商，具體公司未揭露。
Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.