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5511

德昌 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 德昌 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 90Quality 75Growth 56Momentum 58Chips 91

Is 德昌 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 72th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 2th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 31th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 11.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.94
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 兆豐-台中港 holds 1,352 lots
  • sellers have 207 lots left, ~55 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +10% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-台中港 has accumulated 1,352 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-斗六 peaked at 126 lots, has sold 26%, 93 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.40pp, mid holders +3, retail -3.44pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -103 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-台中港兆豐-鹿港摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利國泰-館前凱基-大安
Distributing
元大-斗六國泰-板橋玉山證券國泰-松江元大-清水永豐金-南投
Desks
own scale
元富-文心元大-古亭元大-大安合庫證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-台中港 +1,352
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-鹿港 +739
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 摩根大通 +402
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +339
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 國泰-館前 +304
    sold 1%
  • 凱基-大安 +229
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大-斗六 93 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 國泰-板橋 82 left
    sold 34%· ~25 sessions to clear
  • 玉山證券 51 left
    sold 34%· ~51 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-松江 15 left
    sold 77%· paused recently
  • 元大-清水 28 left
    sold 49%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-南投 26 left
    sold 45%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元富-文心 -348
    unclassified
  • 元大-古亭 -210
    unclassified
  • 元大-大安 -203
    unclassified
  • 合庫證券 -198
    unclassified
Still selling 207 lots ~55 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,493 absorbed / -116 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -81 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

34 historical occurrences (since 2009-05-19)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 51.5%, Sample 33, Median +0.82%, Excess +1.31%, Beat mkt rate 51.5%；60-day: Win 60.6%, Sample 33, Median +1.53%, Excess +1%, Beat mkt rate 42.4%；120-day: Win 71%, Sample 31, Median +3.97%, Excess +10.8%, Beat mkt rate 58.1%

120 days after: historical avg +16.79%

20-day +1.27%
60-day +3.53%
120-day +16.79%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.5%
60.6%
71%
Sample
33
33
31
Median
+0.82%
+1.53%
+3.97%
Excess
+1.31%
+1%
+10.8%
Beat mkt rate
51.5%
42.4%
58.1%

Over 31 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 16.79%, beat the market by 10.8 pts; win rate 71%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 195+17.2% +13.1% 100% -4.3%
20-40 You are here565+44.3% +13.4% 98.2% +28.1%
40-60 830+24.1% +8.4% 70.2% +9.2%
60-80 936+9.5% +4.5% 66.2% -5.4%
80-100 498-6.4% -10.6% 37.6% -27.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 6.36, at the 31.0th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+9.1%
Win rate 81.7% Excess +1.8%
388d
+21.2%
Win rate 67.9% Excess +15.3%
854d
+1.5%
Win rate 48.6% Excess -9.9%
720d
60-day momentum down
+6.4%
Win rate 81.9% Excess -0.8%
259d
+5.7%
Win rate 67.3% Excess -3.1%
449d
-0.2%
Win rate 48.3% Excess -10.3%
468d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 388 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.1%, win rate 81.7%, beat the market by 1.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

100 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.22%, win rate 71.3%, beating the market by +4.11 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

50 times historically; 60-day forward avg +8.52%, win rate 64.6%, beating the market by +4.82 pts on average.

What does 德昌 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營造工程 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

5511 對應證券為德昌，為台灣上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司全名為德昌營造股份有限公司，英文名 TE CHANG CONSTRUCTION CO., LTD.，成立於 1986/05/20，公開發行日為 1997/06/11，上櫃掛牌日為 1998/12/09，總部位於台中市北區五常里五權路401-1號1樓，統一編號 22132814。董事長為黃政勇，總經理為陳豐中。實收資本額約新台幣 11.344 億元，已發行普通股 113,440,000 股，每股面額新台幣 10 元。2025 年報列示 2025 年底員工 576 人（工程人員 358 人、行政人員 218 人），截至 2026/03/31 員工 593 人。主要股東依公司年報及官網資料包括格正投資股份有限公司 10.61%、滿乾地產股份有限公司 6.80%、文益投資股份有限公司 5.00%、技佳國際實業股份有限公司 4.06%、唐銘資產管理股份有限公司約 4.03%、興亞營造工程股份有限公司 3.21%、江翊股份有限公司 3.20%、黃政勇 3.13%、陳文娟 3.03%、銓士投資股份有限公司約 2.40%。公司子公司／關係企業包括德鎮盛工程股份有限公司（100% 持有，機電、水處理、社宅、變電所、軍事及醫院工程等）、玉新開發建設股份有限公司（不動產與產業園區開發相關）、泰國分公司，以及新加坡、柬埔寨、大陸等轉投資事業。2025 年合併營收為新台幣 11,083,709 仟元，稅前純益 1,512,762 仟元，每股盈餘 10.64 元。

Business

德昌主要從事一般土木及建築工程，商業模式為公共工程與民間大型工程承攬、統包工程、共同承攬、專案管理、採購發包與工地施工管理，並由子公司延伸機電工程、產業園區開發、不動產開發及海外工程服務。2025 年主要產品營業比重為工程收入 96.80%、租賃收入 0.36%、勞務收入 1.19%、其他營業收入 1.65%，本業集中度高。主要工程類型包括醫院工程、社會住宅工程、市地重劃及區段徵收統包工程、土木橋樑、道路與鐵路工程、科技廠房新建工程、商業建築工程、產業園區及工業區開發工程、國防建築工程、機電工程及海外建築工程。2025 年銷售對象結構為政府機關 74.93%、民間機關 25.07%；區域以國內為主，其中中部 53.26%、南部 35.22%、北部 11.50%、國外 0.02%。2025 年主要銷貨客戶包含國家住宅及都市更新中心、國營臺灣鐵路股份有限公司、臺中市立老人復健綜合醫院（委託財團法人中國醫藥大學興建經營工程暨營運籌備處）及其他未揭露代號客戶。公司官網列示在建工程包含中山醫學大學教學實驗大樓、臺中捷運藍線 BM01 標機廠與主變電站、高雄仁武福清安居社宅、高雄機廠潮州基地二期、台電中區施工處綜合營運大樓、臺中北屯洲際好宅、空軍 P003、寶山 E/S、廍子安居社宅、高雄捷運黃線 YM01、水湳轉運中心、臺南市新市產業園區、桃園航空城 D2 分標、草屯手工藝產業園區等。重要原物料與工程投入包括結構型鋼、鋼筋、混凝土、水泥、砂、不鏽鋼材、水泥製品、鐵件、塑膠管、電線電纜及機電設備；公司年報表示主要材料多可由國內供應，部分特殊材料向國外採購，並採定量採購及浮動單價訂約控管成本。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年公司營收與獲利明顯提升，全年合併營收 110.84 億元、EPS 10.64 元，主要受惠公共建設、社宅、軌道、醫院、產業園區與大型專業建築工程進度認列。2026 年公司年報展望指出，政府持續推動重大公共建設、軌道運輸、醫療、教育及公共設施優化，工程市場需求維持穩健；公司策略為穩健接案、風險控管、精準投標，聚焦合理利潤、風險可控且符合核心能力的大型標案，並深耕公共工程與長期合作之優質民間業主。2025-2028 年成長動能預期來自：一、公共工程預算維持高檔，軌道交通、橋樑、國防建設、社宅、產業園區、新市鎮與公共設施工程持續釋案；二、AI、半導體、高效能運算與雲端需求帶動科技廠房、研發中心、資料中心、物流中心等民間工程需求；三、公司強化統包整合、BIM、PMIS、營建管理系統 V2.0、電子簽核與落地型 AI，提升工程管理效率、工期控管與成本控管；四、德鎮盛工程切入機電、水資源、變電所、軍事及醫院工程，玉新開發承接產業園區開發，提供工程與開發案源協同。2027-2028 年展望屬推估，若既有大型在建工程按期推進，營收能見度應受在手工程與公共工程延續支撐；但未查得公司對 2027-2028 的正式財測。主要風險包括公共工程標案競爭與毛利壓力、工資上升、技術工短缺、鋼筋／型鋼／金屬與水泥等原物料價格波動、工期延誤、共同承攬界面管理、公共採購法規變動、淨零與碳揭露成本、地緣政治與供應鏈不確定性、工程完工結算時毛利調整，以及大型單一案場進度造成季度營收波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 國內鋼筋、結構型鋼及金屬建材供應商 年報揭露主要材料包含結構型鋼、鋼筋、不鏽鋼材及其他鐵件；公司未揭露占進貨 10% 以上具名供應商，因此此處以供應類別表示，stock_id 不填。
  • 國內水泥、砂石、水泥製品及混凝土供應商 年報揭露主要材料包含混凝土、水泥、砂、水泥製品等；多數材料可由國內供應，未揭露具名供應商。
  • 電線電纜、塑膠管、消防、給水、空調、照明及機電設備供應商／協力廠商 工程與機電工程所需之電線電纜、塑膠管、機電、消防、給水、空調與照明等材料及設備供應來源；公司未揭露具名供應商。
  • 專業分包商與協力廠商 營造工程採採購發包與工地現場管理模式，承包商依施工品質、財務狀況、配合度與工作量等決定；多為非公開或未揭露名單。
Downstream
  • 國家住宅及都市更新中心 主要政府／公法人客戶之一，2025 年為主要銷貨客戶，涉及社會住宅新建統包工程，如廍子安居、福清安居等；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 國營臺灣鐵路股份有限公司 2025 年主要銷貨客戶之一，涉及鐵路、機廠、站區開發或相關工程；國營公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 臺中市立老人復健綜合醫院（委託財團法人中國醫藥大學興建經營工程暨營運籌備處） 2024-2025 年主要銷貨客戶／案場之一，醫院新建工程相關；非台股掛牌。
  • 桃園市政府航空城工程處 桃園航空城計畫區段徵收 D2 分標統包工程業主／公共工程客戶；政府機關，非台股掛牌。
  • 台灣電力股份有限公司 寶山 E/S 暨所內連接站、中區施工處綜合營運大樓等電力基礎設施工程客戶；國營事業，非台股掛牌。
  • 大立光電股份有限公司 3008 法說簡報列示大立光台中工業區第三、第四廠房新建工程，屬民間科技廠房客戶，台股上市公司。
  • 星宇航空股份有限公司 2646 年報重要契約列示星宇停車棟新建工程，屬民間建築工程客戶，台股上市公司。
  • 中國醫藥大學／中山醫學大學等醫療教育機構 中國醫藥大學水湳國際健康產學園區美術館、安南醫院急診大樓、中山醫學大學教學實驗大樓等案源；多為學校或醫療機構，非台股掛牌。

Competitors

Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.