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5534

長虹 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 長虹 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 78Quality 43Growth 98Momentum 56Chips 77

Is 長虹 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 58th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.3%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 36th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 92th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 452.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.07
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 國票-長城 holds 2,084 lots
  • sellers have 1,485 lots left, ~41 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +5% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國票-長城 has accumulated 2,084 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 中國信託 peaked at 1,642 lots, has sold 43%, 935 left, ~24 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.19pp, mid holders +8, retail +0.72pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,653 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國票-長城富邦-三重國泰證券華南永昌玉山證券富邦-敦南
Distributing
中國信託康和統一元大-敦化元大-大直統一-松江
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通美商高盛凱基-台北
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國票-長城 +2,084
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-三重 +885
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +677
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌 +615
    sold 7%· still adding
  • 玉山證券 +557
    sold 14%
  • 富邦-敦南 +418
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 中國信託 935 left
    sold 43%· ~24 sessions to clear
  • 康和 530 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 統一 321 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 元大-敦化 202 left
    sold 32%· paused recently
  • 元大-大直 176 left
    sold 27%· paused recently
  • 統一-松江 118 left
    sold 50%· ~41 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -3,754
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 摩根大通 -2,846
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -1,182
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -923
    day-trade · selling pressure
Still selling 1,485 lots ~41 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +2,473 absorbed / -884 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -1,693 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 452.58%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

124 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 58.3%, Sample 108, Median +0.8%, Excess +1%, Beat mkt rate 50.9%；60-day: Win 65.7%, Sample 108, Median +3.03%, Excess +4.47%, Beat mkt rate 49.1%；120-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 108, Median +4.57%, Excess +6.94%, Beat mkt rate 50.9%

120 days after: historical avg +14.99%

20-day +2.7%
60-day +8.87%
120-day +14.99%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
58.3%
65.7%
61.1%
Sample
108
108
108
Median
+0.8%
+3.03%
+4.57%
Excess
+1%
+4.47%
+6.94%
Beat mkt rate
50.9%
49.1%
50.9%

Over 108 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 14.99%, beat the market by 6.94 pts; win rate 61.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 423-4% -1.2% 47.3% -17.2%
20-40 374+20.1% +16.8% 75.7% +4.2%
40-60 643+17.4% +12.3% 77.1% -6.7%
60-80 734+6% +3.7% 56.8% -16.7%
80-100 You are here839+5.3% +3.2% 55.9% -1.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 17.39, at the 91.8th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1.1%
Win rate 48.8% Excess -2.9%
371d
+5.3%
Win rate 69.4% Excess -4.2%
674d
Now
+5.9%
Win rate 54.7% Excess -4.4%
730d
60-day momentum down
+6.1%
Win rate 62% Excess -1.5%
303d
+7.9%
Win rate 72.1% Excess -6.2%
469d
+0.3%
Win rate 45.4% Excess -3.4%
586d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 730 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.9%, win rate 54.7%, lagged the market by 4.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.4%, win rate 51.7%, beating the market by -1.44 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.7%, win rate 52.5%, beating the market by -1.56 pts on average.

What does 長虹 do? Company profile

建材營造業／不動產開發 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

5534 為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券名稱為長虹，產業類別為建材營造。公司設立於 1975/12/04，總部位於台北市中正區北平東路30號11樓，上市日期為 2004/05/24，早期曾於 2002/03/26 上櫃。董事長為李文造，總經理為李耀中，發言人為財務長陳茂慶。依台灣證券交易所 2026/06/10 產製資料，實收資本額為新台幣 3,153,259,600 元；公司官網基本資料仍列示較早的 2,903,259,600 元，推估係 2026 年現金增資後資料更新時間差異。公司主要股東名單（114年4月28日、現金增資前資料）包含僑虹投資 37,739,196 股、聯虹投資 26,616,071 股、先銳投資 14,095,659 股、虹頂投資 12,521,721 股、創見投資 6,840,872 股、喆宸投資 6,709,005 股、虹觀投資 6,442,332 股等。員工規模官方永續報告提到 113 年員工人數 51 人，104 人力銀行則列示約 150 人；兩者口徑可能分別為母公司或求職平台揭露，需以公司最新永續報告與公開資訊觀測站為準。

Business

長虹為建設開發公司，核心業務為投資興建國民住宅、工業廠房、廠辦及商業大樓出租出售。產品包括住宅大樓、廠辦大樓、住商混合大樓、商辦及出租型不動產；公司過去推案重心在大台北地區，近年延伸至台中、彰化、桃園等區域。商業模式以取得土地或與地主合建，進行產品定位、規劃設計、發包營造與銷售，收入多採完工交屋法認列，因此年度營收與獲利受個案完工交屋時點影響很大。2024 年合併營收 12,070,767 千元，其中土地銷售 7,098,012 千元約 58.8%，房屋銷售 3,903,201 千元約 32.3%，工程承攬 815,061 千元約 6.8%，不動產出租 254,493 千元約 2.1%，全部市場為台灣內銷。2025 年 1-9 月合併營收 3,221,094 千元，其中土地銷售 1,365,099 千元約 42.4%，房屋銷售 881,072 千元約 27.4%，工程承攬 782,702 千元約 24.3%，不動產出租 192,221 千元約 6.0%。公司持有宏林營造廠 100%，多數結構工程委由宏林承攬，有助於掌握施工進度、品質與成本。主要客戶不是少數固定企業，而是住宅自住與換屋買方、投資型買方，以及商辦、廠辦、營運總部需求企業；因此客戶集中度資訊不明顯，主要競爭發生在相同區位建案之間。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025-2028 展望以個案交屋節奏、土地庫存與房市政策為核心。2025 年公司月營收合計約 8,489,975 千元，低於 2024 年 12,070,720 千元的月營收合計，反映建設業完工認列週期與個案交屋時點差異。成長動能方面，公開說明書列示多個 2025-2028 前後完工或持續興建個案：松德長虹 2025 年交屋中；長虹天韻 2025 年交屋中且 2024/2025 已售率約 91.3%；長虹 MVP 預計 2026 年完工；長虹虹創與長虹 ICT 科技均列 2026 年完工；長虹天聚預計 2027 年完工且截至 2025 年底規劃表已售率約 79.8%；長虹擎山與長虹天籟預計 2028 年完工，長虹天籟列示已售率 100%。另有新莊、內湖、北投、員林等未來個案，部分完工年度落在 2029 年以後，對 2028 後中長期案量有延續性。產業趨勢上，雙北土地稀缺、都市更新與危老改建、捷運與公共建設帶動區域價值、科技園區與產業園區周邊住宅需求、企業營運總部與廠辦需求，均是長虹切入住宅、商辦與科技廠辦的有利因素。公司策略包含大台北與中部重點布局、都更與合建、自地自建、提高宏林營造管理效率，以及產品精緻化與綠建築趨勢。主要風險包括央行信用管制與政府打房政策壓抑成交量，利率上升推高資金成本，台北土地價格續漲且取得不易，營建材料如鋼鐵、水泥、砂石、木材及缺工造成成本上升，預售銷售率與交屋進度低於預期，以及建設業收入認列集中於完工年度造成盈餘波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 宏林營造廠股份有限公司 未上市櫃，長虹 100% 持股子公司；多數結構工程及大樓工程委由其承攬施工，是長虹掌握施工進度、品質與成本的核心上游／中游營造單位。
  • 地主與土地仲介人 非單一上市櫃公司；長虹土地來源包含自地自建、與地主合建分屋、土地仲介介紹及都市更新案件，是建設開發最關鍵的上游資源。
  • 鋼鐵、水泥、砂石、木材等營建材料供應商 公開資料未揭露固定供應商名單；公司公開說明書指出營建材料成本受國際原物料與國內缺工影響，近年逐步採包工包料方式發包以維持供應穩定。
  • 水電、消防、裝潢與機電協力廠商 公開資料未揭露固定供應商名單；屬建案工程配套上游／協力廠商，公司長期計畫提到垂直整合水電業、建材業、裝潢業與房屋仲介等上下游業者。
Downstream
  • 住宅自住、換屋與投資買方 非上市櫃公司；為住宅大樓、住商混合產品的主要終端客戶，需求受家庭戶數增加、區域交通、學區、生活機能、利率與房貸政策影響。
  • 企業商辦、廠辦與營運總部使用者 公開資料未列固定客戶；為商辦、工業廠房、科技廠辦、營運總部型產品的下游需求來源，需求受企業投資、科技園區與產業園區發展影響。
  • 房屋代銷與仲介通路 公開資料未揭露固定上市櫃通路；屬建案銷售與去化通路，公司長期計畫提到房屋仲介公司為可垂直整合的下游業者。
  • 租賃客戶 非單一上市櫃公司；公司持有部分出租型不動產，如新時代廣場等，產生不動產出租收入。

Competitors

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.