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6005

群益證 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 群益證 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 73Quality 91Growth 95Momentum 84Chips 91

Is 群益證 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~94% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 6.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 10th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 32th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 10.3% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 155.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.49
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 美商高盛 holds 14,841 lots
  • sellers have 8,637 lots left, ~262 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +39% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 14,841 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 永豐金證券 peaked at 13,608 lots, has sold 66%, 4,659 left, ~66 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -2.89pp, mid holders +4, retail +2.42pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -13,664 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
美商高盛國泰證券臺銀大和國泰國泰-敦南聯邦商銀
Distributing
永豐金證券台灣摩根士丹利港商野村摩根大通富邦-新店富邦-宜蘭
Desks
own scale
元大證券凱基群益金鼎富邦證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 美商高盛 +14,841
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +8,736
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 臺銀 +7,283
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 大和國泰 +2,289
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 國泰-敦南 +2,205
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 聯邦商銀 +2,013
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 永豐金證券 4,659 left
    sold 66%· ~66 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 6,530 left
    sold 43%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 1,775 left
    sold 77%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 1,424 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 富邦-新店 1,563 left
    sold 48%· paused recently
  • 富邦-宜蘭 784 left
    sold 49%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大證券 -23,801
    unclassified
  • 凱基 -18,189
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -14,431
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -10,417
    unclassified
Still selling 8,637 lots ~262 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +17,019 absorbed / -9,631 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -8,988 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 155.54%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

107 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.5%, Sample 99, Median +0.48%, Excess +0.1%, Beat mkt rate 42.4%；60-day: Win 60.8%, Sample 97, Median +3.57%, Excess +0.79%, Beat mkt rate 39.2%；120-day: Win 63.8%, Sample 94, Median +7.24%, Excess +1.31%, Beat mkt rate 45.7%

120 days after: historical avg +8.73%

20-day +1.8%
60-day +5.6%
120-day +8.73%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.5%
60.8%
63.8%
Sample
99
97
94
Median
+0.48%
+3.57%
+7.24%
Excess
+0.1%
+0.79%
+1.31%
Beat mkt rate
42.4%
39.2%
45.7%

Over 94 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.73%, beat the market by 1.31 pts; win rate 63.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1198+7.2% -2.7% 46.2% -0.6%
20-40 You are here798+21.8% +18.1% 82.2% +0.6%
40-60 512+18.8% +18.9% 83.2% -3.2%
60-80 308+37.6% +29.9% 90.6% +11.3%
80-100 122+39.9% +55% 95.1% +12.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.02, at the 32.1th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+9.7%
Win rate 56.7% Excess +2%
944d
+6.2%
Win rate 62.9% Excess -4.8%
626d
+15.9%
Win rate 94% Excess +4.3%
217d
60-day momentum down
+7.8%
Win rate 64% Excess +1.1%
948d
+12%
Win rate 83% Excess -1.3%
212d
+7.5%
Win rate 74.8% Excess +2.9%
111d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 944 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 9.7%, win rate 56.7%, beat the market by 2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6%, win rate 65.2%, beating the market by +0.8 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

70 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.76%, win rate 63.8%, beating the market by -0.13 pts on average.

What does 群益證 do? Company profile

金融保險業／證券業 上市

Overview

6005 對應證券為群益金鼎證券股份有限公司，股票簡稱群益證，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1988/06/21，公開發行日期 1989/08/08，上櫃日期 1995/08/29，轉上市日期 2005/11/21；總部位於台北市民生東路三段156號14樓之3。董事長為周秀真，總經理為李文柱，發言人為曹光志，統一編號 22956035。實收資本額約新台幣 217.09 億元，已發行普通股約 2,170,908,097 股，每股面額新台幣 10 元，無特別股。員工規模公開資料不完全一致：104 人力銀行揭露約 2,000 人，個股資料來源曾列約 1,848 人，故以約 1,800 至 2,000 人區間看待。主要股東公開資料可見富鼎投資、寶座投資、寶盛投資、泰盛投資、宏佳投資等投資公司持股，但最新持股比率仍應以公司年報與公開資訊觀測站為準。重要轉投資包括上市公司群益期貨及群益投信、群益投顧、群益保險經紀人、香港與海外相關據點等。

Business

群益證為大型獨立綜合券商，核心業務涵蓋證券經紀、電子交易與行動下單、融資融券、證券自營、債券與衍生性商品、權證發行、承銷與 IPO/上櫃輔導、股務代理、期貨交易輔助、財富管理、信託、複委託、基金、債券、結構型商品、保險經紀與投顧研究服務。公司商業模式主要來自交易佣金與手續費、融資融券及客戶分戶帳利息收入、自營與債券部位投資損益、權證與衍生性商品造市收益、承銷與股務代理費、財富管理商品銷售與管理相關收入，以及群益期貨、群益投信等轉投資收益。公開個股資料顯示其營收比重曾以營業證券出售損益、經紀手續費、利息收入為主要來源；2026 年法說摘要則揭露 2026Q1 獲利結構約為經紀 47%、自營及債券 26%、轉投資收益 18%、承銷 9%，2026 年 1 至 4 月經紀約 39%、自營及債券約 38%，顯示獲利對台股成交量、指數行情、利率及自營操作環境高度敏感。主要客戶為台灣散戶、專業投資人、高資產客戶、法人與機構投資人，以及需要承銷、股務代理、財務顧問與掛牌輔導的企業。終端應用為台股、海外股票、ETF、基金、債券、權證、期貨、信託及全球資產配置等投資理財場景。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以財富管理、海外資產配置、AI 金融科技與台灣資本市場擴張為主軸。成長動能包括：一、台灣推動亞洲資產管理中心，政策方向包含擴大跨境金融服務、OAMU 一站式境外資產管理平台、財富管理促進計畫、台版 TISA、主動式 ETF 與多資產 ETF、REITs 等，對券商財管、信託、複委託及高資產服務有中長期利多；二、群益證法說摘要指出公司 2026 年策略以財富管理為核心、AI 為主要驅動力，發展智能投顧、精準行銷、自營交易輔助與客戶服務效率，並規劃外幣分戶帳、複委託融資等新業務；三、若台股成交量與市值維持高檔，經紀、融資融券、權證、自營與承銷業務均受惠；四、群益期貨、群益投信等轉投資可提供集團交叉銷售與產品線綜效。潛在風險包括：台股成交量萎縮或指數大幅回檔造成經紀與自營獲利下滑；利率、匯率與債券殖利率波動影響債券及衍生性商品評價；財富管理競爭加劇，金控型券商具銀行、保險與資本優勢；AI 與數位交易投入需持續資本支出並承擔資安、反詐與系統穩定壓力；權證與衍生性商品業務受監理、造市風險與市場波動影響；海外複委託及跨境財管需面對法規、稅務、匯率及客戶適合度管理。整體而言，2025 至 2028 年公司具備大型獨立券商的彈性與完整牌照，但獲利週期性仍高，需觀察台股成交值、資本適足率、財管 AUM、複委託成長、自營風控與主管機關新業務開放進度。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 臺灣證券交易所 證券集中交易市場與上市制度基礎設施，群益證之經紀、自營、承銷與上市公司服務均依賴其交易、資訊揭露與市場制度；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 證券櫃檯買賣中心 上櫃、興櫃、債券與衍生性商品等市場基礎設施，支援群益證上櫃輔導、債券與櫃買商品業務；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 臺灣期貨交易所 期貨與選擇權市場基礎設施，透過群益證期貨交易輔助業務與子公司群益期貨連結；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 臺灣集中保管結算所 證券集保、結算、股務與資產管理平台基礎設施，為券商交易後台及 TISA 等資產管理制度重要參與者；非台股掛牌公司。
  • 國內外交易所、保管銀行、基金公司、債券與結構型商品發行機構 提供複委託、基金、債券、結構型商品、信託與高資產客戶服務所需商品與交易通道；多數非台股掛牌或為海外機構。
  • 金融資訊、資安、雲端與交易系統供應商 支援電子下單、行動交易、AI 應用、反詐與資安控管；具體供應商名單未完整公開。
Downstream
  • 散戶與高資產投資人 主要經紀、財富管理、複委託、信託、基金、債券、權證及融資融券客戶；非公司實體。
  • 法人與機構投資人 經紀交易、研究服務、債券、衍生性商品、承銷配售與資產配置客戶；包含投信、保險、銀行、企業與海外機構。
  • 上市櫃與興櫃發行公司 承銷、IPO/上櫃輔導、股務代理、法人說明會與資本市場顧問服務對象；個別客戶依專案而異。
  • 汎德永業 2247 公開徵才資料列為群益證歷史輔導成功掛牌上市案例之一。
  • 美達科技 6735 公開徵才資料列為群益證歷史主辦掛牌上櫃案例之一。
  • 叡揚資訊 6752 公開徵才資料列為群益證歷史輔導成功掛牌上櫃案例之一。

Competitors

Sources（13）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.