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6212

理銘 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 理銘 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 61Quality 64Growth 67Momentum 17Chips 24

Is 理銘 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~90% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.1%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 22th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 53th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -1.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 22.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.34
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 凱基-高雄 holds 57 lots
  • sellers have 7 lots left, ~25 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -26% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-高雄 has accumulated 57 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 北城證券 peaked at 50 lots, has sold 90%, 5 left, ~25 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders -1, retail -0.02pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -17 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-高雄國泰-板橋華南永昌-竹北第一金-新興玉山-新竹元大-西螺
Distributing
北城證券國泰-敦南永豐金-南投兆豐-嘉義國泰-桃園元大-新竹
Desks
own scale
國票-南京土銀-新竹統一兆豐-南京
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-高雄 +57
    sold 0%
  • 國泰-板橋 +46
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 華南永昌-竹北 +45
    sold 4%· still adding
  • 第一金-新興 +42
    sold 0%
  • 玉山-新竹 +31
    sold 0%
  • 元大-西螺 +28
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 北城證券 5 left
    sold 90%· ~25 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-敦南 12 left
    sold 59%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-南投 2 left
    sold 60%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-嘉義 2 left
    sold 33%· ~20 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-桃園 2 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • 元大-新竹 1 left
    sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

  • 國票-南京 -158
    unclassified
  • 土銀-新竹 -55
    unclassified
  • 統一 -29
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-南京 -17
    unclassified
Still selling 7 lots ~25 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +35 absorbed / -3 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 22.63%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

59 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 56, Median -1.49%, Excess -2.17%, Beat mkt rate 32.1%；60-day: Win 50.9%, Sample 55, Median +0.35%, Excess -2.69%, Beat mkt rate 41.8%；120-day: Win 46.3%, Sample 54, Median -0.84%, Excess -6.11%, Beat mkt rate 42.6%

120 days after: historical avg +5.9%

20-day -0.47%
60-day +3.01%
120-day +5.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.9%
50.9%
46.3%
Sample
56
55
54
Median
-1.49%
+0.35%
-0.84%
Excess
-2.17%
-2.69%
-6.11%
Beat mkt rate
32.1%
41.8%
42.6%

Over 54 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.9%, lagged the market by 6.11 pts; win rate 46.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 549+9.7% +5.1% 55.6% -12%
20-40 483-13.5% -15.5% 19.9% -33.5%
40-60 You are here823+21.7% +23.9% 66% +13%
60-80 480+40% +24.7% 99.6% +14.5%
80-100 226+27.4% +22.3% 98.7% -13.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 13.99, at the 52.9th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1%
Win rate 45.1% Excess -5.7%
384d
+11%
Win rate 62.7% Excess +7%
565d
+29.5%
Win rate 84.6% Excess +8.3%
332d
60-day momentum down
-9%
Win rate 13.9% Excess -24.7%
433d
Now
+10.1%
Win rate 70.9% Excess +4.7%
358d
+16.5%
Win rate 87.5% Excess +5.9%
120d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 358 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 10.1%, win rate 70.9%, beat the market by 4.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +10.27%, win rate 67.9%, beating the market by +6.54 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

What does 理銘 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建開發 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

6212 對應證券為理銘開發股份有限公司，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1977/11/08，原名環興實業，早期從事管線、陶管進出口貿易，1998 年後轉型光碟機與周邊產品代理，2007 年因投入營建地產開發，更名為理銘開發股份有限公司。公司上櫃日期為 2002/12/26，總部位於新竹市公道五路二段419號7樓。董事長、總經理及發言人皆為曾森縣。實收資本額為新台幣 10.2 億元，已發行普通股 1.02 億股。公開資料顯示主要經營業務為住宅及大樓開發租售業，簽證會計師事務所為致遠聯合會計師事務所，股務代理為台新證券股務代理部。股權方面，鉅亨網資料顯示前十大持股約 24.44%，外資持股約 0.47%；搜尋結果揭露重要持股者包含瑩宇投資、治道投資、恭平投資及大股東楊邴淇等，但完整最新十大股東持股明細仍需以公開資訊觀測站年報為準。第三方資料顯示員工人數約 18 人，此數字非公司法說會正文揭露，應以年報確認。

Business

理銘目前是區域型住宅開發商，商業模式以取得土地、參與都市更新或公辦都更、規劃建案、委託營造廠商興建住宅及大樓，再以成屋或先建後售方式出售或出租為主。MoneyDJ 資料指出，公司「委託營造廠商興建住宅及大樓之出租、出售業務」占營收比重 100%，銷售區域以新竹及台南地區為主。公司近年主力案包括台南仁德二空段「東都綠學」，法說會揭露基地面積 10,195 平方公尺、地下三層地上十四層、456 戶、總銷約 56 億元；二空段 A1 區「東都樂學」採先建後售，基地面積 5,636 平方公尺、297 戶、預計 2025 年完工；二空段 A2 區採先建後售，基地面積 6,037 平方公尺、258 戶、預計 2027 年完工。財務表現高度受建案完工交屋時點影響，2023 年營收 56.59 億元、EPS 6.26 元，2024 年營收 37.92 億元、EPS 6.09 元；2025 年上半年營收 11.88 億元、毛利率 40.09%、EPS 2.91 元；2025 全年 Yahoo 股市月營收資料顯示累計營收約 16.95 億元，較 2024 年下降 55.31%。主要終端客戶為新竹、台南等區域自住及置產購屋者，需求與科技產業就業、區域人口、房貸條件、政府房市政策及都更進度高度相關。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以台南二空段及新竹都市更新案為核心。短中期成長動能來自二空段 A1 區「東都樂學」2025 年完工後採先建後售模式，若銷售順利，可於 2025 至 2026 年逐步貢獻營收與獲利；二空段 A2 區預計 2027 年完工，可能成為 2027 至 2028 年認列來源之一。中長期土地與案源包含新竹市東區親仁段公辦都更，基地面積 12,246 平方公尺，事業計畫及權利變換報核中；新竹市東區光復段公辦都更，基地面積 31,080 平方公尺，事業計畫及權利變換報核中；新竹市東區光復段自辦都更，基地面積 4,028 平方公尺；以及台南仁德二空段 B 區公辦都更，購地自建、基地面積 40,110 平方公尺，目前事業計畫審查中。產業趨勢上，新竹與台南受科技產業聚落、科學園區與台積電供應鏈就業支撐，中長期住宅需求具一定韌性；但理銘營收集中於少數大型建案，認列波動大，且房市受央行信用管制、房貸成數與利率、打炒房政策、營建成本、工期、都更審查進度、銷售去化率及區域供給量影響。公司 2025 全年營收較 2024 明顯下降，顯示 2023 至 2024 大案交屋後進入認列空窗期，2026 至 2028 實際成長取決於東都樂學去化、A2 區完工時程及新竹／台南都更案核准進度；未取得公司正式 2026 至 2028 財測，因此上述展望屬依公司法說會案源與營建業認列邏輯之推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 地主／土地供應方 提供開發土地或參與權利變換；公司法說會將地主列為上游，未揭露特定上市櫃交易對象。
  • 建築師 負責建案規劃設計與都更送審協作；公司法說會列為上游，未揭露具名上市櫃供應商。
  • 建築材料業 提供鋼筋、水泥、混凝土、門窗、設備等建材；公司法說會列為上游類別，未揭露特定上市櫃供應商。
  • 水電業 提供水電、機電及管線工程；公司法說會列為上游類別，未揭露特定上市櫃供應商。
  • 營造廠 理銘以委託營造廠商興建住宅及大樓為主要模式；未確認特定營造承包商名稱。
Downstream
  • 購屋者 住宅與大樓銷售的最終客戶，主要位於新竹及台南市場。
  • 房屋仲介商 法說會列為下游通路角色，協助建物銷售或流通；未揭露具名上市櫃公司。
  • 代銷公司 法說會列為下游銷售通路，負責個案銷售推廣；未揭露具名上市櫃代銷商。
  • 代書業 協助不動產移轉、登記及交屋程序；屬專業服務業，非特定上市櫃公司。

Competitors

  • 名軒 1442 MoneyDJ 將其列為理銘在新竹縣市等區域開發案的主要競爭對手之一；上市營建公司。
  • 潤隆 1808 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；上市營建開發公司。
  • 國建 2501 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；上市建設公司。
  • 太子 2511 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；上市建設公司。
  • 華固 2548 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；上市建設公司。
  • 富宇 4907 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；上櫃建設公司。
  • 圓方 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；查得圓方創新 5395 為公開發行公司，非上市櫃，故 stock_id 依規範填 null。
  • 隆大 5519 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；上市營建公司。
  • 遠雄 5522 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；上市建設公司。
  • 鉅陞國際開發 5529 MoneyDJ 原列志嘉為競爭者；志嘉已更名為鉅陞國際開發，股票代號仍為 5529，上櫃公司。
  • 富旺 6219 MoneyDJ 列示同業競爭者；上櫃營建公司。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.