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6223

旺矽 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, premium valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 旺矽 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 11Quality 94Growth 86Momentum 96Chips 14

Is 旺矽 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~94% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 8.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 94th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 57.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.38
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 摩根大通 holds 1,142 lots
  • sellers have 824 lots left, ~112 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +177% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 1,142 lots since the start (sold 12%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 元大證券 peaked at 930 lots, has sold 63%, 343 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -4.82pp, mid holders -4, retail +3.38pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,599 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通美林中國信託永豐金證券台新-台北港商麥格理
Distributing
元大證券統一凱基-台北富邦證券國泰證券台新證券
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-匯立元大-內湖
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +1,142
    sold 12%
  • 美林 +668
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 中國信託 +447
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +406
    sold 15%· still adding
  • 台新-台北 +258
    sold 19%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +258
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 元大證券 343 left
    sold 63%· paused recently
  • 統一 448 left
    sold 29%· ~112 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 64 left
    sold 85%· ~10 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 272 left
    sold 34%· ~59 sessions to clear
  • 國泰證券 217 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 台新證券 88 left
    sold 68%· paused recently

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -1,391
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -592
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金-匯立 -473
    unclassified
  • 元大-內湖 -197
    unclassified
Still selling 824 lots ~112 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +626 absorbed / -179 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -2,567 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

39 historical occurrences (since 2009-11-09)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 51.3%, Sample 39, Median +1.23%, Excess +2.37%, Beat mkt rate 48.7%；60-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 38, Median +10.25%, Excess +10.36%, Beat mkt rate 52.6%；120-day: Win 63.9%, Sample 36, Median +17.52%, Excess +17.95%, Beat mkt rate 58.3%

120 days after: historical avg +28.63%

20-day +3.86%
60-day +16.22%
120-day +28.63%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.3%
57.9%
63.9%
Sample
39
38
36
Median
+1.23%
+10.25%
+17.52%
Excess
+2.37%
+10.36%
+17.95%
Beat mkt rate
48.7%
52.6%
58.3%

Over 36 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 28.63%, beat the market by 17.95 pts; win rate 63.9%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 57.81%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

106 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 91, Median +4%, Excess +1.95%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；60-day: Win 60.7%, Sample 89, Median +5.12%, Excess +7.94%, Beat mkt rate 56.2%；120-day: Win 52.3%, Sample 86, Median +2.79%, Excess +9.28%, Beat mkt rate 48.8%

120 days after: historical avg +13.52%

20-day +2.94%
60-day +10.86%
120-day +13.52%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.5%
60.7%
52.3%
Sample
91
89
86
Median
+4%
+5.12%
+2.79%
Excess
+1.95%
+7.94%
+9.28%
Beat mkt rate
57.1%
56.2%
48.8%

Over 86 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.52%, beat the market by 9.28 pts; win rate 52.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 370+106.1% +112.4% 97.3% +82.2%
20-40 650+40.3% +40.2% 74.6% +22%
40-60 765+54.8% +9.5% 55.9% +41%
60-80 649+57.6% +9.1% 59.5% +43.6%
80-100 You are here609+75.3% +34% 80% +59.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 170.93, at the 97.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+37.3%
Win rate 91.9% Excess +29.5%
284d
+17.4%
Win rate 58.6% Excess +6.8%
776d
Now
+40%
Win rate 72.7% Excess +29.4%
879d
60-day momentum down
+19.6%
Win rate 57.1% Excess +13.2%
459d
+10.7%
Win rate 47% Excess +7.7%
504d
+43.3%
Win rate 72.8% Excess +33.9%
261d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 879 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 40%, win rate 72.7%, beat the market by 29.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

53 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.94%, win rate 71.2%, beating the market by +7.56 pts on average.

What does 旺矽 do? Company profile

半導體業；晶圓探針卡與半導體測試設備 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

6223 對應旺矽科技股份有限公司，英文名稱 MPI Corporation，為櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF/ETN/權證。公司成立於 1995 年 7 月，總部位於新竹縣竹北市中和街 151、153、155 號，為台灣第一家上櫃的探針卡公司；上櫃日期為 2003-01-06。董事長為葛長林，總經理為郭遠明。櫃買中心資料顯示實收資本額為新台幣 979,813,090 元；公開資料與求才平台揭露員工規模約 2,000 人。主要股東依 2024 年年報截至 2025-04-30 的名單，包括旺矽投資股份有限公司 8,334,626 股、持股 8.84%；新制勞工退休基金 5,912,500 股、持股 6.27%；富邦人壽保險股份有限公司 2,468,000 股、持股 2.62%；舊制勞工退休基金 2,053,300 股、持股 2.18%。公司全球據點包含台灣新竹/高雄、美國、蘇州、德國、加拿大等，近年透過 Celadon Systems、ATV Systems、Focus Microwaves 等事業布局高性能探針卡、溫度測試與射頻/毫米波量測。

Business

旺矽定位為半導體測試解決方案公司，核心產品為晶圓探針卡、探針卡維修、晶圓測試與分選設備、半導體晶圓與元件測試/分選/光學檢查設備。2024 年合併營收淨額新台幣 10,171,861 仟元，其中晶圓探針卡 6,596,924 仟元、占 64.85%；半導體設備 3,226,927 仟元、占 31.72%；其他 348,010 仟元、占 3.43%。2025 年公司法說資料顯示營收成長至新台幣 13,371,181 仟元，產品結構轉為探針卡 72.2%、設備 26.1%、其他 1.7%，EPS 為 33.49 元。探針卡產品涵蓋懸臂式 CPC、垂直式 VPC、微機電 MEMS、Fine Pitch、高針數、高速與 RF 探針卡，應用於驅動 IC、邏輯 IC、影像感測器、射頻 IC、AI/HPC 晶片、車用 IC、矽光子與先進封裝晶片測試。半導體設備包含光電自動化、晶圓/晶粒測試分選、AVI/AOI 檢測、溫控測試系統、工程探針台與 RF/mmWave 量測平台。商業模式以客製化設計、製造、維修與量測平台整合為主，提供 probe head、substrate（MLO/MLC/MLOC）與 PCB 的整卡整合服務。主要客戶類型依年報為國內外晶圓代工廠、IC 設計公司與封裝測試廠；公司未在年報逐名揭露客戶，但市場與法說資料多將其需求來源連結至 AI/HPC、先進封裝、光通訊與高階車用晶片供應鏈。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望偏正向但波動風險高。成長動能包括：AI 與 HPC 晶片面積、I/O 數、功耗與高速傳輸規格上升，使晶圓測試需要高針數、高耐電流、高速、高低溫、大面積與低針壓探針卡；CoWoS、2.5D/3D、SiP、InFO、KGD、HBM/Chiplet、矽光子與 CPO 等先進封裝趨勢提高晶圓階段測試價值；光通訊由 400G 升級至 800G、1.6T 甚至更高速，帶動 VCSEL、DFB、EML、DML、Micro LED、矽光子測試設備需求。公司年報引用 TechInsights 2024/05 預估全球探針卡市場 2023-2028 CAGR 為 7.2%；2026 年 3 月法說資料引用 TechInsights 2025/05，指出 2025 年全球半導體探針卡市場約 27 億美元、2024-2029 CAGR 8.9%。公司競爭位置強，2024 年全球整體探針卡供應商排名第 4，非記憶體探針卡供應商排名第 3；在懸臂式與垂直式探針卡具全球領先地位。近期營運數據顯示需求仍強：2026 年 5 月合併營收新台幣 19.07 億元、年增 57.81%；2026Q1 市場報導與財報資料顯示營收約 39.33 億元、EPS 約 12.53 元、毛利率約 59.4%。公司研發方向包括 224Gbps PAM4 AI 晶片高速測試探針卡、高針數 MEMS 探針卡、矽光子晶粒/封裝體測試、Micro LED 與光電射頻量測、自動化平台與 IC 接觸式溫控。擴產方面，公司持續擴充 VPC/MEMS 產能，市場報導稱 2026 年底 MEMS 與 VPC 產能較 2025 年擴增約五成；另有市場報導提及 PCB 自製與新廠投資，惟具體時程與自製率未能完全以公司正式公告交叉確認。主要風險包括半導體景氣循環、AI/HPC 客戶資本支出變動、探針卡同業價格競爭、MEMS/VPC 良率與交期、關鍵零組件如高階 PCB、探針、陶瓷/載板、精密機械與顯微/量測元件供給、外國設備零件交期、匯率、地緣政治與美中科技管制，以及估值已反映高成長預期後的股價波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 印刷電路板與高階載板供應商 年報揭露晶圓探針卡上游包含 PCB、陶瓷板、合成樹脂、被動元件、探針、量測儀器與專用治具設備；未逐名揭露直接供應商，因此此列為產業鏈類別而非確認單一公司。
  • 探針、套管與精密機械加工供應商 年報揭露晶圓探針卡主要原料包含 PCB、探針、套管；半導體設備原料包含顯微鏡、機械車床/銑床、螺桿軌道、馬達、工業電腦等，並表示關鍵材料與零組件維持兩家以上供應商。未揭露直接供應商名稱。
  • 量測儀器與自動控制元件供應商 半導體設備上游包含量測儀器、自動控制元件、電腦設備、光學元件與電子零件；公司與國內外原物料廠商合作，但官方資料未逐名揭露。
Downstream
  • 台積電 2330 晶圓代工龍頭，屬旺矽年報所稱晶圓代工廠客戶類型；市場報導常將其列為旺矽主要下游，但公司年報未逐名確認客戶名單。
  • 聯發科 2454 IC 設計公司，屬旺矽年報所稱 IC 設計客戶類型；是否為直接客戶未由公司正式逐名揭露。
  • 日月光投控 3711 封裝測試與先進封裝服務商，屬旺矽年報所稱封裝測試廠客戶類型；是否為直接客戶未由公司正式逐名揭露。
  • 矽品精密 封裝測試廠，已併入日月光投控體系、非獨立台股掛牌；市場常視為半導體測試下游，是否為旺矽直接客戶未由公司正式逐名揭露。
  • NVIDIA 美國上市 AI GPU/加速器公司；市場報導將 AI/HPC 平台需求視為旺矽高階探針卡需求來源之一，但公司官方資料未逐名揭露客戶。
  • AWS Amazon Web Services，非獨立上市；市場報導提及雲端自研 AI 晶片需求可能帶動高階探針卡，未由公司官方逐名確認。

Competitors

  • FormFactor 美國上市探針卡大廠；年報列其台灣分公司美商福達電子為晶圓探針卡主要競爭對手。
  • Technoprobe 義大利上市探針卡大廠；年報列其台灣相關公司特諾本科技為晶圓探針卡主要競爭對手。
  • Japan Electronic Materials 日本上市探針卡廠；年報列台灣傑睦股份有限公司（日商 JEM 在台設立）為晶圓探針卡主要競爭對手。
  • Nidec SV TCL / 美亞科技 日本/外資集團在台公司，年報列為晶圓探針卡競爭對手；非台股掛牌。
  • 中華精測 6510 台股上櫃半導體測試介面公司，產品含晶圓測試卡、IC 測試板，為台灣探針卡/測試介面同業。
  • 穎崴 6515 台股上市測試介面公司，產品含測試座、接觸元件與探針卡，與旺矽同受 AI/HPC 高階測試需求驅動。
  • 雍智科技 6683 台股上櫃測試載板與老化測試板公司，正由後段測試往前段晶圓測試拓展，為測試介面同業。
  • 中探針 6217 台股上櫃探針與連接器廠，產品包含彈簧針連接器與半導體測試相關產品，屬測試零組件同業。
  • 致茂 2360 台股上市量測與自動化設備公司；年報列為晶圓針測機相關競爭廠商。
  • 惠特 6706 台股上市光電與半導體設備公司；年報列為晶圓針測機相關競爭廠商。
Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.