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6244

茂迪 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, premium valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 茂迪 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 23Quality 44Growth 75Momentum 50Chips 61

Is 茂迪 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 49th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 1.0%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 97th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 1.9% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 31.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.60
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 16,581 lots
  • sellers have 7,464 lots left, ~1200 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +27% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 16,581 lots since the start (sold 8%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 港商野村 peaked at 7,274 lots, has sold 55%, 3,268 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +9.22pp, mid holders -5, retail -7.68pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -856 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通台中銀-豐原元大-善化台新富邦-羅東國票-中和
Distributing
港商野村凱基-台北台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛統一國泰-敦南
Desks
own scale
凱基-桃園元大-新營元大-大同第一金-澎湖
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +16,581
    sold 8%
  • 台中銀-豐原 +1,459
    sold 14%
  • 元大-善化 +902
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新 +898
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-羅東 +662
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國票-中和 +476
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 港商野村 3,268 left
    sold 55%· paused recently
  • 凱基-台北 3,145 left
    sold 53%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 1,063 left
    sold 76%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 2,382 left
    sold 40%· ~41 sessions to clear
  • 統一 349 left
    sold 86%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 961 left
    sold 50%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基-桃園 -1,644
    unclassified
  • 元大-新營 -1,237
    unclassified
  • 元大-大同 -942
    unclassified
  • 第一金-澎湖 -936
    unclassified
Still selling 7,464 lots ~1200 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +4,245 absorbed / -4,319 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -705 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 31.54%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

101 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 43.6%, Sample 78, Median -1.08%, Excess -1.18%, Beat mkt rate 42.3%；60-day: Win 37.2%, Sample 78, Median -6.34%, Excess -3.48%, Beat mkt rate 37.2%；120-day: Win 30.8%, Sample 78, Median -11.17%, Excess -11.8%, Beat mkt rate 28.2%

120 days after: historical avg -9.24%

20-day -1.24%
60-day -2.15%
120-day -9.24%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
43.6%
37.2%
30.8%
Sample
78
78
78
Median
-1.08%
-6.34%
-11.17%
Excess
-1.18%
-3.48%
-11.8%
Beat mkt rate
42.3%
37.2%
28.2%

Over 78 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 9.24%, lagged the market by 11.8 pts; win rate 30.8%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 68-33% -36% 0% -157.3%
20-40 16Insufficient data
40-60 574-3.8% -9.9% 35.9% -41%
60-80 371-13% -13.9% 22.6% -49.4%
80-100 You are here178-12.8% -11.5% 7.3% -2.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 323.89, at the 95.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(5d)
-1.5%
Win rate 37.1% Excess -16.8%
224d
-20%
Win rate 7.5% Excess -35.7%
200d
60-day momentum down
-14.9%
Win rate 5.9% Excess -89.4%
68d
+6.6%
Win rate 36.6% Excess -9%
612d
Now
-2.7%
Win rate 46.3% Excess -25.6%
218d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 218 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.7%, win rate 46.3%, lagged the market by 25.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +6.37%, win rate 40%, beating the market by +0.07 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg -1.48%, win rate 40%, beating the market by -3.57 pts on average.

What does 茂迪 do? Company profile

光電業；太陽能電池、太陽能模組、太陽能發電系統與綠電/售電 上櫃（櫃買中心）

Overview

茂迪為台灣上櫃普通股公司，股票代號6244，英文簡稱MOTECH。公司成立於1981年6月3日，2003年5月15日上櫃，總部/公司地址為新北市深坑區北深路三段248號6樓，南科及深坑為台灣主要營運/生產據點，另有大陸馬鞍山等海外生產/銷售相關據點。公開股市資料與年報顯示，董事長為曾永輝；最新股市資料顯示總經理為王丁召/林煥順，2024年年報部分章節仍列葉正賢及副總經理林煥順/王丁召，故經營職銜以較新公開股市資料為準並在notes標示。實收資本額為新台幣3,870,418,750元，已發行普通股387,041,875股。員工規模方面，2024年年報列示2024年度合計649人、截至2025年4月22日647人；2024永續報告另以台灣地區含子公司口徑列2024年底員工491人，兩者口徑不同。主要股東方面，2024年年報截至2025年4月22日前十大股東包含匯豐託管景順太陽能ETF3.75%、曾永輝本人2.84%（另配偶/未成年子女0.36%）、財團法人鄭福田文教基金會1.89%、李智貴1.11%、大通託管先進星光先進總合國際股票指數1.07%、財團法人中華民國佛教慈濟慈善事業基金會1.02%、美商摩根大通銀行台北分行受託保管梵加德新興市場股票指數基金0.98%、王丕彰0.97%、渣打託管KBCEco基金0.82%、呂明孝0.69%。公司重要轉投資包含Power Islands Limited、茂誠能源、茂盛電業、茂群能源、茂嘉能源、東元茂迪、東元旭能及大陸茂迪新能源相關子公司。

Business

茂迪主要從事太陽能電池及模組製造銷售、太陽能發電系統設計架設、太陽能發電/售電及相關工程顧問、系統整合與技術服務。2024年度營收淨額新台幣3,225,501千元，其中光電事業部2,947,844千元、占91.39%；電力事業部275,334千元、占8.54%；其他2,323千元、占0.07%。以產品/服務看，核心為太陽能電池M6與G10尺寸、G10太陽能模組440-450W、490-500W、580-595W、太陽能行動電力系統、太陽能發電系統工程顧問/工程整合/技術發展/教育訓練服務。2024年公司合併營收組成以模組銷售為主，並已將產線升級至大尺寸G10 TOPCon；2025年Q4公開法說新聞則顯示模組占營收84%、電廠售電占16%。銷售地區方面，2024年台灣占50.26%、新加坡占49.41%、其他占0.33%；公司及新聞資料指出海外訂單以日本、歐洲為主，日本訂單為大宗。商業模式包括：一、中游太陽能電池/模組製造，向系統商、模組客戶及能源系統業者銷售；二、向下游延伸EPC、電站設計建置、維運及自有/合資電站發電售電；三、以BIPV、農電共生高透光模組、防眩、彩色、可撓式、輕量型模組等差異化產品切入建築、農業、機場、公路與淨零建築應用。主要客戶年報以E公司等匿名方式揭露，2024年單一主要客戶E公司銷貨占49.40%，公司未公開實名；下游客戶類型則包括系統商、電力公司、業主、用電大戶與海外模組/系統通路。年報揭露主要原料供應狀況為CELL及EVA且供應穩定，但供應商以壬公司、癸公司等匿名方式揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望可分為成長動能與風險兩面。成長動能：一、N型TOPCon/G10升級。公司2024年已完成大尺寸產線與TOPCon產能轉換，2024年開發成功技術包括N型TOPCon太陽能電池平均效率25.5%、590W/500W/450W雙面模組；2026年法說新聞稱目前電池效率約25.6%-25.7%，未來仍朝高轉換效率發展。二、差異化模組。公司規劃/開發TOPCon Back Contact電池、505W 60版型高效雙面模組、防眩模組、可撓式模組，並發展彩色模組、採光罩、陽台護欄、輕量型與農業透光模組；BIPV及日本/歐洲近零建築政策是中期機會。三、電站與綠電。2024年底已併網容量約68MW，2025年法說稱政府標案與民間大型屋頂案已取得逾20MW標案，期待2026年底掛錶量突破100MW；2026年法說新聞則稱手上電廠案場約26MW，部分建置中、部分申請文件，預計2026-2027年掛錶。公司策略由傳統台電躉購逐步觀察/拓展民間企業綠電交易，以提高售電收入並爭取用電大戶商機。四、國際市場。公司年報引用PV InfoLink估計2025全球模組需求492-568GW、年增約5%-7%，成長動能來自中東、東南亞等新興市場；櫃買產業鏈資料亦指出2026年全球太陽能安裝量有機會達730GW以上。茂迪海外市場以日本、歐洲為主，若建築太陽能政策與能源自主趨勢延續，有利高利基模組出貨。主要風險：一、中國及東南亞模組低價競爭、台灣內需案場遞延與大型地面電站開發進度落後，壓抑本土模組價格與需求。二、原物料價格波動，特別是銀、鋁、矽晶圓、EVA、玻璃、膠膜等，2025年Q4毛利下滑即與原物料價格上漲及資產減損有關。三、政策、併網、土地、地方選舉與電網升級等非技術因素，會影響台灣2025-2026裝置量與案場進度。四、關稅與地緣政治，包括美國貿易壁壘、東南亞雙反後模組轉向台灣市場、中國出口退稅取消/調整等，可能同時帶來轉單機會與價格壓力。五、新技術如TOPCon Back Contact、BIPV、可撓式/彩色模組、鈣鈦礦疊層等仍需商業化驗證，2028前的實際營收貢獻不宜過度推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 中美晶 5483 台股上櫃太陽能/半導體矽晶圓代表廠，屬太陽能產業上游矽晶圓環節；茂迪年報未具名確認其為供應商，列為產業鏈關聯公司。
  • 國碩 2406 台股上市太陽能矽晶圓與材料相關公司，屬晶矽太陽能上游/中游關聯；茂迪年報供應商以匿名揭露，未確認直接供應關係。
  • 碩禾 3691 台股上櫃太陽能導電漿等材料公司，屬太陽能電池材料上游；亦曾與茂迪合資台灣太陽能模組製造公司，後由茂迪合併。
  • 未具名CELL、EVA、玻璃、膠膜供應商 年報揭露主要原料包含CELL與EVA且供應穩定，MoneyDJ補充模組原料包含太陽能電池、EVA、玻璃及Tedlar Film等；公司未公開實名供應商。
Downstream
  • 台灣電力公司 國營未上市公司；茂迪既有太陽能電站過去主要與台電簽約躉售/電力收購，為電站售電收入來源之一。
  • 未具名系統商、電力公司及業主 茂迪產品銷售對象包含系統商、電力公司及業主；2024年主要客戶E公司占銷貨49.40%，但年報以匿名揭露。
  • 泓德能源 6873 台股上市太陽能系統建置、售電與能源服務業者，屬太陽能下游系統/電力服務代表公司；未確認為茂迪直接客戶。
  • 雲豹能源 6869 台股上市再生能源開發、售電與能源服務業者，屬下游電站開發/綠電交易關聯公司；未確認為茂迪直接客戶。

Competitors

  • 聯合再生 3576 台股上市太陽能電池、模組與下游整合競爭者；InfoLink列為2024台灣本土模組前五大出貨廠商之一，亦為MoneyDJ列示的國內競爭對手。
  • 元晶 6443 台股上市太陽能電池/模組廠；InfoLink列2024台灣本土模組出貨第一，為茂迪在本土模組與TOPCon產品上的主要競爭者。
  • 友達 2409 台股上市面板與能源解決方案公司；InfoLink列為2024台灣本土模組前五大出貨廠商之一，具品牌與多元化模組策略。
  • 太極 4934 台股上櫃太陽能電池/模組相關公司，MoneyDJ列為茂迪國內太陽能電池競爭對手之一。
  • 安集 6477 台股上櫃太陽能模組與系統相關公司，屬台灣太陽能模組/EPC競爭族群。
  • 同昱能源 未確認為台股上市櫃公司；InfoLink列為2024台灣本土模組前五大出貨廠商之一，透過代理第三地模組具價格競爭力。
  • 天合光能、晶澳太陽能、隆基綠能、通威股份、晶科能源、Canadian Solar、東方日升等 非台股上市櫃或屬海外上市公司；為全球太陽能電池/模組大型競爭者，對價格與全球供需有重大影響。
Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.