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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 8462 柏文. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=8462

8462

柏文 Sports & Leisure As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 柏文 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 57Quality 85Growth 65Momentum 50Chips 5

Is 柏文 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 77th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 7.5%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 28th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 1th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -8.2% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 20.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.03
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 元大-汐止 holds 232 lots
  • sellers have 368 lots left, ~47 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -4% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 元大-汐止 has accumulated 232 lots since the start (sold 20%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 元大-花蓮 peaked at 264 lots, has sold 50%, 132 left, ~11 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.12pp, mid holders -2, retail +1.34pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -347 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
元大-汐止國泰證券統一-內湖兆豐-西螺玉山-板橋宏遠-光隆
Distributing
元大-花蓮美林永豐金-內湖台灣摩根士丹利永豐金-台中美商高盛
Desks
own scale
元大-仁愛凱基-台北華南永昌第一金-忠孝
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 元大-汐止 +232
    sold 20%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +214
    sold 3%
  • 統一-內湖 +204
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-西螺 +145
    sold 0%
  • 玉山-板橋 +127
    sold 11%
  • 宏遠-光隆 +112
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 元大-花蓮 132 left
    sold 50%· ~11 sessions to clear
  • 美林 92 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-內湖 59 left
    sold 47%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 34 left
    sold 67%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-台中 62 left
    sold 29%· ~33 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 46 left
    sold 46%· ~19 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 元大-仁愛 -1,442
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -265
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 華南永昌 -226
    unclassified
  • 第一金-忠孝 -200
    unclassified
Still selling 368 lots ~47 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +519 absorbed / -222 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -53 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 20.06%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

80 historical occurrences (since 2016-03-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 55.7%, Sample 61, Median +1.06%, Excess +1.39%, Beat mkt rate 57.4%;60-day: Win 67.8%, Sample 59, Median +7.69%, Excess +5.22%, Beat mkt rate 61%;120-day: Win 73.7%, Sample 57, Median +20.7%, Excess +12.84%, Beat mkt rate 70.2%

120 days after: historical avg +22.21%

20-day +2.47%
60-day +9.37%
120-day +22.21%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
55.7%
67.8%
73.7%
Sample
61
59
57
Median
+1.06%
+7.69%
+20.7%
Excess
+1.39%
+5.22%
+12.84%
Beat mkt rate
57.4%
61%
70.2%

Over 57 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 22.21%, beat the market by 12.84 pts; win rate 73.7%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here51+23% +21.6% 100% -61%
20-40 65+4.5% +8.2% 69.2% -51.2%
40-60 119-3.7% -7.9% 36.1% -38.4%
60-80 355+7% -2.3% 46.5% -15.9%
80-100 610-6.1% -8.3% 29.2% -30.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 15.57, at the 1.0th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
+4.1%
Win rate 47.7% Excess -31.8%
130d
+10.9%
Win rate 58.3% Excess -12.4%
84d
-6.7%
Win rate 24% Excess -16%
458d
60-day momentum down
+15%
Win rate 80% Excess -17.7%
70d
+2.2%
Win rate 52.9% Excess -2.6%
189d
-0.2%
Win rate 49.6% Excess -14.3%
389d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 130 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 4.1%, win rate 47.7%, lagged the market by 31.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

13 times historically; 60-day forward avg +13.31%, win rate 76.9%, beating the market by +7.86 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

48 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.25%, win rate 47.8%, beating the market by -4.09 pts on average.

What does 柏文 do? Company profile

運動休閒 上市

Overview

8462 對應之證券為柏文健康事業股份有限公司普通股,市場別為台灣證券交易所上市,產業別為運動休閒。公司設立於 2005 年 10 月 4 日,總部位於高雄市左營區博愛四路 238 號 8 樓,統一編號 27693238。英文全名為 Power Wind Health Industry Incorporated,英文簡稱 Power Wind。董事長為陳尚義,總經理為林洵賢,發言人為繆尚志。公司於 2015 年 7 月 16 日股票公開發行、2015 年 8 月 29 日登錄興櫃、2016 年 3 月 10 日上櫃掛牌,2019 年 3 月 15 日轉上市掛牌,為台灣首家上市連鎖運動健身中心。依公司 2025 年 7 月法說會資料,2025 年 5 月 7 日實收資本額約新台幣 793,060 仟元;依玩股網 2026 年資料,實收資本額約新台幣 803,866,160 元、已發行普通股約 80,386,616 股。員工規模依公司 2025 年 7 月法說會為集團含柏鑫共 1,882 人,截至 2025 年 6 月 30 日;104 人力銀行公司頁面則顯示至 2026 年企業規模已達全國 85 家廠館並持續籌備新廠館。主要股東依公司官網主要股東名單,資料日期為 2025 年 4 月 5 日:嘉永投資開發股份有限公司 21,751,989 股、約 27.42%;余宗璟約 4,980,839 股、約 6.28%;陳尚義約 4,309,895 股、約 5.43%;欣建工業股份有限公司約 3,671,740 股、約 4.63%;余宗勳約 3,637,764 股、約 4.59%;余宗霖含信託專戶約 3,333,524 股、約 4.20%;游佩諭約 2,144,731 股、約 2.70%;陳尚文約 1,440,097 股、約 1.82%;陳尚仁約 1,209,667 股、約 1.53%;大魯閣實業股份有限公司約 1,188,000 股、約 1.50%。公司主要品牌包括健身工廠 Fitness Factory、人體工房、肖跳、滾吧、Sklub 運動俱樂部、鐳射戰場 KILL ZONE、Buddy Body Workshop 等。

Business

柏文核心業務為經營會員制連鎖運動健身中心及休閒運動場館、健身課程等服務,採直營連鎖模式,以月費或期間型會籍、入會費與手續費、私人教練課程、芳療與商品銷售等形成收入。主品牌「健身工廠」提供重訓、有氧、團體課、私人教練、運動場館與設備使用;人體工房偏向芳療與身體保養;肖跳、滾吧、KILL ZONE、Sklub 與 Buddy Body 則屬休閒運動、兒童或全齡球館、運動按摩與身心療癒等多角化服務。依 2025 年 7 月法說會,2024 年合併營收為新台幣 5,122,945 仟元,營收結構為健身及娛樂服務即會籍使用費 3,094,227 仟元、約 60% 至 61%;運動保健服務即私人教練課程 1,863,869 仟元、約 36%;入會費含手續費 117,994 仟元、約 2%;其他含芳療課程與商品銷售 46,855 仟元、約 1%。2025 年第一季合併營收 1,353,807 仟元,其中健身及娛樂服務 849,458 仟元、約 63%;運動保健服務 459,143 仟元、約 34%;入會費 31,654 仟元、約 2%;其他 13,552 仟元、約 1%。公司主要客戶為一般個人會員、私人教練課程學員、團體課與球館使用者、兒童及銀髮族客群;終端應用為健身、體態管理、肌力訓練、健康老化、運動社交、休閒娛樂與運動按摩。依公司法說會,2024 年健身工廠會員數約 300,000 人,2025 年 6 月 30 日會員數約 331,000 人,年增約 19.06%;2025 年 7 月 23 日健身工廠據點數 80 處。公司估計 2024 年以銷售額推估市占率約 27.45%,以會員人數推估市占率約 30.21%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以台灣健身滲透率提升、展店、會員數增加、私人教練滲透率、銀髮健身與多品牌服務為主要成長動能。公司 2025 年 7 月法說會指出,台灣健身產業仍處成長期,2024 年 15 歲以上人口中從事健身房運動者約 993,000 人,健身房運動人口占比約 4.81%;公司另估台灣地區不含金門連江潛在健身人口約 147 萬人、潛在健身房市場規模約 378 處,顯示相較成熟市場仍有滲透空間。公司 2025 年計畫新增健身工廠 8 至 9 處,2025 年底全台預計達 85 至 86 家廠館;截至 2025 年 7 月 23 日已達 80 處,規劃包括桃園青埔、桃園正光、新北雙和、桃園 A 廠、高雄 B 廠、台中 C 廠、台南新市、台南西門、台南 D 廠等。策略面包括持續複製健身工廠成功模式、擴大規模經濟與租金及供應商議價能力、強化 APP 數位平台、推出自有品牌與聯名商品、導入智慧販賣機、拓展實體通路與電商平台、發展 Sklub 全齡運動球館的場租、課程、賽事、營隊收入,以及擴大 Buddy Body Workshop 運動按摩與身心療癒服務。銀髮族是中長期重點,公司以「茁健活力班」切入預防肌少症、骨質疏鬆與健康老化需求。海外與多角化方面,公司看好美國棒壘球市場,轉投資大魯閣美國子公司,2025 年 3 月 28 日首家 TAROKO Batting Center 於美國德州休士頓 Katy 開幕,並規劃美國多店拓展;公司亦表示不排除美國成為健身工廠海外第一站。2026 年已公布 1 至 5 月月營收合計約新台幣 28.00 億元,5 月單月約 5.92 億元、年增約 20.06%,顯示展店與會員基礎仍在推升營收,但 2026 全年度及 2027 至 2028 年營收、獲利與 EPS 未見公司正式長期財測,故不列具體預測值。主要風險包括展店資本支出與租賃負債增加、單店成熟期與回收期較長、房租與人事成本上升、私人教練人才招募與留任、同業價格競爭、World Gym 等大型連鎖擴張、國民運動中心與小型工作室分流、在家健身或線上健身替代、定型化契約與預收款信託等法規趨嚴、室內空氣品質與場館合規成本、消費景氣波動、會員續約率及新品牌獲利模型驗證風險。2025 至 2028 年合理基調為穩健展店與會員滲透成長,但 2027 至 2028 年具體展店數與財務目標屬未公開資訊,需以後續法說會與公開資訊觀測站公告更新。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • Life Fitness 國際商用健身器材品牌;公開資料與健身工廠社群曾提及引進 Life Fitness 系列器材,非台股掛牌公司。
  • Hammer Strength 國際重訓設備品牌;公開資料與健身工廠社群曾提及使用 Hammer Strength 訓練設備,非台股掛牌公司。
  • Technogym 義大利高階健身設備品牌;公開資料與健身工廠社群曾提及使用 Technogym 設備,非台股掛牌公司。
  • 喬山健康科技 1736 台股上市健身器材公司;公司法說會將喬山列為運動休閒產業上游運動用品或器材製造業代表,未確認為柏文直接供應商。
  • 岱宇國際 1598 台股上市健身器材公司;公司法說會列於產業上游運動用品或器材製造業,未確認為柏文直接供應商。
  • 祺驊 1593 台股上櫃運動健身器材零組件相關公司;公司法說會列於產業上游,未確認為柏文直接供應商。
  • 寶成工業 9904 台股上市運動用品製造與通路集團;公司法說會列為運動休閒產業上游代表,非已確認直接供應商。
  • 豐泰企業 9910 台股上市運動鞋製造公司;公司法說會列為運動休閒產業上游代表,非已確認直接供應商。
  • 復盛應用 6670 台股上市運動用品與高爾夫球具代工相關公司;公司法說會列為產業上游代表,非已確認直接供應商。
  • 明安國際 8938 台股上櫃高爾夫球具與運動用品相關公司;公司法說會列為產業上游代表,非已確認直接供應商。
  • 大田精密 8924 台股上櫃高爾夫球具與複合材料相關公司;公司法說會列為產業上游代表,非已確認直接供應商。
  • 場館租賃方與商業不動產業主 柏文展店需承租大型室內場館,租賃方與商場或商辦業主為重要上游資源;個別租賃方未完整公開。
  • 私人教練、有氧老師與運動專業人才 公司法說會將教練與有氧老師列於健身工廠營運鏈上游;多為個人或未上市服務提供者。
Downstream
  • 一般個人會員與消費者 主要終端客戶,購買會籍、場館使用、團體課與商品服務;非公司型客戶。
  • 私人教練課程學員 運動保健服務收入來源,購買一對一或小團體教練課程;非台股掛牌公司。
  • 銀髮族與健康老化客群 公司以茁健活力班等課程切入肌力訓練、預防肌少症與健康老化需求;非公司型客戶。
  • 兒童、青少年與全齡球館使用者 Sklub 運動俱樂部、營隊、賽事、場租與課程的目標客群;非台股掛牌公司。
  • 運動按摩與身心療癒消費者 Buddy Body Workshop 目標客群,包括上班族、缺乏運動者與高運動量族群;非台股掛牌公司。

Competitors

  • 世界健身-KY 2762 World Gym 台灣營運公司,台股上市,為柏文最直接的大型連鎖健身房競爭者;公司法說會比較其 World Gym、Express、Fit Zone 等據點。
  • 全真概念健康事業股份有限公司 True Fitness、True Yoga、Yoga Edition 等品牌,未上市;公司法說會列為競爭同業。
  • 統一佳佳股份有限公司 BEING sport、BEING fit 等健身品牌營運者,未上市;公司法說會列為競爭同業。
  • Curves 可爾姿 女性與小型健身房利基品牌,非台股掛牌;在特定客群與社區型健身需求上與柏文競爭。
  • 國民運動中心與公營委外運動場館 非上市櫃公司;以較低價格提供健身、有氧、球場與運動課程,對價格敏感型客群形成替代。
  • 大魯閣實業 1432 台股上市休閒運動場館業者,與柏文在休閒運動、棒壘球、保齡球等娛樂運動場域部分重疊;同時大魯閣亦為柏文主要股東之一,且柏文轉投資大魯閣美國子公司。
Sources(17)

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.