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1456

怡華 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 怡華 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 68Quality 50Growth 2Momentum 57Chips 83

Is 怡華 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~89% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -2.1%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 1th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 6th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.63
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 兆豐-大同 holds 1,038 lots
  • sellers have 25 lots left, ~30 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +17% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-大同 has accumulated 1,038 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 臺銀 peaked at 35 lots, has sold 40%, 21 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.79pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.77pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -15 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-大同統一-松江元大-虎尾凱基-台北元大-中崙花旗環球
Distributing
臺銀國泰-敦南永豐金-中和台新-北中壢國泰-館前陽信
Desks
own scale
元大-復北群益金鼎台新-世貿統一-台中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-大同 +1,038
    sold 0%
  • 統一-松江 +290
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-虎尾 +62
    sold 0%
  • 凱基-台北 +48
    sold 13%· still adding
  • 元大-中崙 +45
    sold 0%
  • 花旗環球 +43
    sold 10%· still adding

Distributing

  • 臺銀 21 left
    sold 40%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 5 left
    sold 85%· ~25 sessions to clear
  • 永豐金-中和 11 left
    sold 48%· paused recently
  • 台新-北中壢 6 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 國泰-館前 13 left
    sold 28%· ~26 sessions to clear
  • 陽信 12 left
    sold 29%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-復北 -300
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎 -282
    unclassified
  • 台新-世貿 -176
    unclassified
  • 統一-台中 -117
    unclassified
Still selling 25 lots ~30 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +579 absorbed / -11 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 historical occurrences (since 2010-08-13)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 50%, Sample 14, Median +0.02%, Excess +1.24%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 42.9%, Sample 14, Median -8.42%, Excess -9.66%, Beat mkt rate 28.6%；120-day: Win 35.7%, Sample 14, Median -11.82%, Excess -13.39%, Beat mkt rate 21.4%

120 days after: historical avg -9.64%

20-day +1.96%
60-day -7.3%
120-day -9.64%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
50%
42.9%
35.7%
Sample
14
14
14
Median
+0.02%
-8.42%
-11.82%
Excess
+1.24%
-9.66%
-13.39%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
28.6%
21.4%

Over 14 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 9.64%, lagged the market by 13.39 pts; win rate 35.7%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 historical occurrences (since 2020-09-14)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 52.6%, Sample 19, Median +0.3%, Excess +0.85%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 19, Median 0%, Excess -1.31%, Beat mkt rate 31.6%；120-day: Win 47.4%, Sample 19, Median -2.09%, Excess -4.54%, Beat mkt rate 26.3%

120 days after: historical avg +6.9%

20-day +3.28%
60-day +6.57%
120-day +6.9%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.6%
47.4%
47.4%
Sample
19
19
19
Median
+0.3%
0%
-2.09%
Excess
+0.85%
-1.31%
-4.54%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
31.6%
26.3%

Over 19 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.9%, lagged the market by 4.54 pts; win rate 47.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 You are here258-12.7% -15.2% 15.5% -11.3%
20-40 102-6.1% -6.4% 34.3% -64.5%
40-60 75-16.8% -24.6% 2.7% -56.2%
60-80 299+44.6% +14% 73.9% +7.4%
80-100 431+37.7% +29% 68.2% -2.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 4.39, at the 5.5th percentile of its own history (0-20 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Now
-3.1%
Win rate 48.4% Excess -19.6%
157d
+21.9%
Win rate 89.5% Excess +4.3%
105d
+6.1%
Win rate 38.3% Excess -8.8%
298d
60-day momentum down
-4.1%
Win rate 31.9% Excess -14.4%
320d
+14.6%
Win rate 68% Excess -0.3%
100d
+33.6%
Win rate 74.2% Excess +11.1%
287d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 157 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 3.1%, win rate 48.4%, lagged the market by 19.6%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

65 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.66%, win rate 48.4%, beating the market by -0.03 pts on average.

What does 怡華 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建、不動產開發，兼營紡織加工與租賃 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1456 對應證券為怡華實業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1968/08/02，上市日期 1993/12/09，統一編號 33144175，總部位於台北市內湖區內湖路一段392號12樓之1。董事長與總經理均為黃士豪；發言人為李世豪。實收資本額約新台幣 9.372 億元，已發行普通股約 93,720,000 股。公司原以紡織起家，近年營運重心轉向不動產投資、開發、興建、銷售與租賃；仍保留台南官田廠紡織加工、廠房出租與少量紡織品買賣。113 年報揭露截至 114/03/31 從業員工資料不含契約人數約 30 人。主要股東方面，年報揭露萬家福股份有限公司持股約 27.30%，招商物產管理有限公司持股約 23.37%，天地人投資企業股份有限公司持股約 17.87%；法人股東與黃氏家族／元邦集團相關人士存在代表人或親屬關係。公司關係企業與董事經歷中可見元邦建設開發、新北市不動產、上豪租賃、新澤建設、新億營造、萬家福等關聯網絡。

Business

怡華目前主要業務為住宅及大樓開發租售、工業廠房與科技廠辦開發租售，以及紡織品銷售與加工。113 年度營業比重為：不動產部商品銷售 79.54%、不動產部租賃收入 6.98%、紡織部商品銷售 0.02%、紡織部加工收入 13.46%、電商廣告收入 0%。2025 年合併營收 8.28991 億元，較 2024 年 10.42 億元衰退約 20%，毛利率由 34%升至 39%，稅後淨利約 3.19 億元；營收依產品服務線主要來自銷售房地約 6.20081 億元、租賃收入約 1.41825 億元、加工收入約 0.67082 億元，製造業商品銷售很小。商業模式上，不動產開發多採土地取得、規劃設計、工程發包、營造施工、預售／銷售、完工交屋與產權移轉；建案大多以預售搭配銀行土建融資，以活化資金。主要產品型態包括集合住宅大樓、透天厝、園區式透天廠辦、都更廠辦大樓、工業廠房租售。紡織部已由自有品牌或大量生產轉為代工、庫存去化與廠房出租，官田廠仍有染整、織品等代工業務。主要客戶可分為住宅購屋者、商用／工業廠辦買方與租戶、紡織代工委託客戶；公司未公開揭露主要單一客戶名稱。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 實績顯示，公司雖然營收較 2024 衰退，但因投資性不動產公允價值評價利益與成本管控，稅後淨利明顯提升；惟 2025 年預算營收執行率僅約 19.56%，反映建案入帳時點與銷售節奏高度影響短期財報。2026 年公司股東會手冊揭露預計可完工入帳案包括宜蘭「御東風」透天住宅 31 戶、「怡華富庄」廠辦 15 戶、玉井「天外天 4 期」20 戶、官田「怡華綻」56 戶、下營「怡華好美」32 戶；餘屋包括「南霸天廠辦」2 戶、「法吉歐里」52 房與 60 車、「天外天 23 期」4 戶、「天外天 5 期」12 戶。2026 年在建／預售案包括宜蘭「艾菲爾住宅大樓」132 戶、「怡華有樂－尾塹 2 期」1,474.35 坪、「利成段透天宅」92 戶、玉井 13 期 20 戶、玉井 4 期 20 戶，以及新化太子廟「豹南科廠辦」132 戶。公司也已簽約新北市五股御史段土地與建物，規劃申請都更與工業立體化，預計地下 3 樓、地上 15 樓、371 戶與 1200 車位之科技廠辦租售開發；該案因約定賣方原工廠約 2.5 年生產營運結束後再移轉，對 2027-2028 以後案源具中長期意義。成長動能為南部與宜蘭透天／住宅案入帳、科技廠辦與工業廠房需求、廠房租賃收入、都市更新與工業立體化開發。主要風險為央行信用管制、房市價平量縮、土地與營建成本高、缺工與料漲、銀行融資與高槓桿壓力、建案銷售與交屋遞延、存貨淨變現價值評估、利息費用高、關係人營造承攬交易治理風險、紡織代工量能因碳排與客戶需求而持續下滑。2027-2028 展望屬依公司現有土地案源與開發策略推估：若預售去化與融資順利，公司仍會以住宅、透天、廠辦、工業地與租賃型資產組合推進；但實際入帳年度高度依完工、過戶、銷售與法規審查進度而定。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 地主／土地仲介／都更與危老整合方 不動產開發上游案源來源；多為個人、法人地主或未上市通路，年報未揭露固定名單。
  • 建築師、代書、建築經理公司、房屋仲介與代銷公司 不動產開發前期規劃、行政、銷售與交易服務供應商；多數非台股掛牌或未揭露名稱。
  • 新億營造有限公司 關係人營造承攬公司，年報及 2026 股東會手冊揭露與公司有工程承攬契約及董事利害關係；未上市。
  • 台灣水泥 1101 建案工程常見上游水泥供應商；未確認為怡華直接供應商，列為產業鏈代表。
  • 亞洲水泥 1102 建案工程常見上游水泥供應商；未確認為怡華直接供應商，列為產業鏈代表。
  • 中國鋼鐵 2002 建案工程常見鋼材上游供應商；未確認為怡華直接供應商，列為產業鏈代表。
  • 東和鋼鐵 2006 營建鋼筋與型鋼供應鏈代表；未確認為怡華直接供應商。
  • 棉花、聚酯粒、乙二醇、PTA、CPL、尼龍絲、染料等紡織原料供應商 紡織代工上游原料；年報說明毛、棉紗主要原料對進口依存度高，未揭露特定供應商。
Downstream
  • 住宅購屋者 怡華住宅、透天厝、車位等房地銷售終端客戶；非公司型台股掛牌對象。
  • 工業廠房與科技廠辦買方／租戶 怡華工業廠房、園區式廠辦與科技廠辦租售終端客群，可能包含中小企業、製造業與科技產業供應鏈公司；未公開揭露主要客戶。
  • 紡織代工委託客戶 官田廠染整與織品代工客戶；公司表示維持原客戶委託代工，未公開具名。
  • 信義房屋 9940 房仲通路之台股上市代表；未確認為怡華指定通路或直接客戶，列為不動產銷售通路生態代表。

Competitors

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.