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1517

利奇 Electric Machinery As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 利奇 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 72Quality 13Growth 76Momentum 31Chips 19

Is 利奇 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 10th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -1.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 26th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 60th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 32.5%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.54
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-高美館 holds 922 lots
  • sellers have 286 lots left, ~134 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -21% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-高美館 has accumulated 922 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 國票-台南 peaked at 359 lots, has sold 74%, 93 left, ~8 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.03pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.57pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -343 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-高美館永豐金證券華南永昌國泰-板橋富邦-花蓮元大-萬華
Distributing
國票-台南元大證券永豐金-彰化兆豐-鹿港兆豐-台中港元大-鳳山
Desks
own scale
元富-緯城元大-中壢凱基-台北群益金鼎-彰化
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-高美館 +922
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +612
    sold 1%· still adding
  • 華南永昌 +256
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰-板橋 +214
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 富邦-花蓮 +209
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-萬華 +185
    sold 5%

Distributing

  • 國票-台南 93 left
    sold 74%· ~8 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 162 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-彰化 97 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-鹿港 67 left
    sold 27%· ~134 sessions to clear
  • 兆豐-台中港 57 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 元大-鳳山 13 left
    sold 81%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元富-緯城 -599
    unclassified
  • 元大-中壢 -318
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -302
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 群益金鼎-彰化 -286
    unclassified
Still selling 286 lots ~134 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,221 absorbed / -234 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -22 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 32.52%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

62 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 49.2%, Sample 61, Median 0%, Excess +2.22%, Beat mkt rate 47.5%；60-day: Win 41%, Sample 61, Median -2.82%, Excess +2.46%, Beat mkt rate 45.9%；120-day: Win 42.6%, Sample 61, Median -3.89%, Excess +0.75%, Beat mkt rate 31.1%

120 days after: historical avg +6.68%

20-day +3.08%
60-day +4.91%
120-day +6.68%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
49.2%
41%
42.6%
Sample
61
61
61
Median
0%
-2.82%
-3.89%
Excess
+2.22%
+2.46%
+0.75%
Beat mkt rate
47.5%
45.9%
31.1%

Over 61 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.68%, beat the market by 0.75 pts; win rate 42.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 122-19.8% -20.5% 1.6% -36.3%
20-40 211-10.1% -11.6% 13.3% -14%
40-60 You are here335-4.4% -7.8% 31% -4.9%
60-80 267+3.6% -9.4% 36.7% -7.6%
80-100 1042+40% -0.3% 49.4% +16.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 13.93, at the 59.7th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-13.7%
Win rate 1.4% Excess -21.1%
69d
-0.4%
Win rate 51.4% Excess -2.4%
311d
+5.8%
Win rate 34% Excess -0.4%
571d
60-day momentum down
-6.1%
Win rate 41.5% Excess -11.2%
258d
Now
-0.6%
Win rate 37.1% Excess -1.5%
221d
+25.3%
Win rate 45.7% Excess +11%
658d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 221 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 0.6%, win rate 37.1%, lagged the market by 1.5%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

19 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.93%, win rate 57.9%, beating the market by +1.42 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

61 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.55%, win rate 54.2%, beating the market by -1.53 pts on average.

What does 利奇 do? Company profile

電機機械；自行車零組件 TWSE

Overview

1517 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券名稱為利奇，發行公司為利奇機械工業股份有限公司。公司成立於 1973/05/16，1995/11/14 於臺灣證券交易所掛牌上市，總部位於彰化縣彰化市石牌里石牌路一段112號。董事長為林育新，總經理為林宜賢。公開股市資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣 22.00 億元、已發行普通股 220,000,007 股；公司登記資料另顯示 2025 年後登記資本總額已有變動，故本研究以公開股市基本資料之實收資本額為主。主要生產據點包含台灣彰化石牌廠、南投南崗廠及中國大陸昆山廠。員工規模方面，2024 永續報告揭露台灣揭露範疇員工 569 人，MoneyDJ 報導則引述公司稱全球約 1,200 人、其中台灣約 600 人、中國昆山約 460 人。主要股東依公司 114 年股東常會揭露，前十大包含瑞士銀行台北分行受李易蓉信託財產專戶 22,274,684 股、9.86%，立旺投資有限公司代表人林育聖 22,047,000 股、9.76%，林育新 13,328,760 股、5.90%，林育聖 9,562,375 股、4.23%，林宜賢 9,190,036 股、4.07%，林宗瑩 9,009,127 股、3.99%，施杉雄 1,689,022 股、0.74%，可富投資股份有限公司代表人林育新 1,407,000 股、0.62%，賴明成 1,400,000 股、0.62%，賴俊宏 1,398,718 股、0.61%。公司已取得 ISO 9001、ISO 14001、職安衛相關系統及 AS9100 航太品質管理系統等認證。

Business

利奇主要經營自行車零件製造與買賣，並延伸至汽機車零件、一般機械、航太及資訊科技產品之金屬加工。主要產品包括自行車剎車器組、把手、立管、座管、花鼓、輪圈、快拆、鍛造件、鋁合金零件、碳纖維製品與其他金屬加工件。2024 年合併產品營收比重為：立管 24.07%、剎車器組 15.92%、座管 12.87%、花鼓 4.14%、其他 43.00%。商業模式包含 OEM/ODM 零組件供應、與主要客戶共同開發、以及自有品牌 PROMAX 的全球銷售；PROMAX 已深耕歐美中高階自行車市場超過 25 年，定位中高階零件，通路涵蓋美國、歐洲、亞洲、國內成車廠與貿易商。公司具備鋁合金壓鑄、鍛造、熱處理、CNC 精密加工、表面處理、裝配等製程能力；南崗廠負責座立管、花鼓、剎車膠、變速線導管、內線、碳纖製品、輪圈與輪組等加工。主要原物料包括鋼管、塑膠粒、鐵材、鋁材、鋁錠、鋁管、鋼管、銅線等。主要客戶與終端應用包含 Trek、Specialized、Cube、巨大、美利達、愛地雅等成車品牌或成車廠，終端應用為傳統自行車、電動自行車、中高階運動車款與部分跨產業金屬加工件。2024 年合併營業收入約新台幣 20.34 億元，較 2023 年約 18.92 億元成長約 7%；2026 年 5 月累計營收約新台幣 7.99 億元，累計年減約 11.13%，顯示景氣復甦仍不均衡。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望可分為復甦、產品升級與風險控管三條主線。第一，產業景氣方面，疫情後自行車庫存調整延續多年，2024 年公司營運已較 2023 年回穩；2025 年公司曾預期產業復甦態勢較明確，但 2026 年公開資訊仍顯示終端消費偏弱、回溫緩慢，較可能呈現分區域、分品項的漸進式復甦，而非快速 V 型反彈。第二，產品與技術動能方面，公司 2025 年規劃開發新產品 161 件、研發費用約新台幣 8,000 萬元，重點包含高階電動自行車零件、可斷電把手、可斷電油壓碟煞、可調整快拆立管、可調式避震座管、新油壓剎車、高性能剎車膠、花鼓與輪圈、輕量化材料、鋁合金加工、碳纖維製品、FEA/CAE 輔助設計，以及與主要客戶共同研發。第三，品牌與毛利改善方面，自有 PROMAX 品牌若能提高中高階產品占比，有助於改善產品組合與毛利率；跨入汽機車、航太及資訊科技金屬加工亦可降低單一自行車景氣循環依賴。第四，供應鏈與 ESG 方面，公司已導入低碳鋁與再生鋁，2024 年壓鑄製程再生鋁使用量達投產量 40%，後續低碳材料、歐洲碳規範、品牌客戶減碳要求可能成為接單門檻。主要風險包括全球自行車終端需求恢復不如預期、品牌與通路庫存再次調整、歐美消費力偏弱、匯率波動、鋁材與能源成本、兩岸生產成本、關稅與地緣政治、Shimano/SRAM 等國際大廠及台灣同業價格競爭、產品品質與召回風險、碳纖維/油壓剎車等新產品良率與認證時程不確定。2027 至 2028 年屬外推情境：若自行車庫存正常化、電動自行車滲透率提高且公司中高階與自有品牌比重上升，營收與毛利率有機會逐步修復；若終端需求低迷或競爭加劇，則可能維持低毛利與虧損壓力。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鋁錠、鋁材、鋁管與低碳／再生鋁供應商 利奇把手、立管、座管、花鼓、鍛造件與壓鑄製程之主要原料來源；公司未在公開資料揭露具名供應商，並表示持續協同供應商研討低碳鋁與再生鋁採購。
  • 鋼管、鐵材與鋼材供應商 剎車器、座管、立管與其他自行車零件製程使用之基礎金屬材料；公開資料未揭露具名供應商。
  • 塑膠粒、銅線、剎車線與相關化工材料供應商 剎車器、剎車線、內線、導管、剎車膠與零件裝配相關材料來源；公開資料未揭露具名供應商。
  • 鍛造、壓鑄、CNC、熱處理、表面處理及檢測設備供應商 支援利奇鋁合金壓鑄、鍛造、熱處理、CNC 精密加工、表面處理與品質檢測；公司具備部分自有製程能力，外部設備或委外廠商未具名揭露。
Downstream
  • 巨大 9921 台灣上市自行車成車廠，公開產業資料列為利奇主要客戶之一，採購自行車零組件。
  • 美利達 9914 台灣上市自行車成車廠，公開產業資料列為利奇主要客戶之一，採購自行車零組件。
  • 愛地雅 8933 台灣上櫃自行車成車／相關業者，公開產業資料列為利奇主要客戶之一。
  • Trek 美國未上市自行車品牌，公開產業資料列為利奇主要客戶之一。
  • Specialized 美國未上市自行車品牌，公開產業資料列為利奇主要客戶之一。
  • Cube 歐洲自行車品牌，非台股掛牌；公開產業資料列為利奇主要客戶之一。
  • 歐美中高階自行車組車廠與補修通路 PROMAX 自有品牌產品銷售至歐美市場、組車廠與補修通路；公司官網稱歐洲自行車集團旗下多家組車廠及美國品牌自行車廠採用 PROMAX 產品。

Competitors

  • 日馳 1526 台灣上市自行車變速器與零組件廠；MoneyDJ 列為利奇變速器相關競爭對象，StockFeel 亦列為自行車組件同業。
  • 久裕興 台灣上櫃自行車花鼓與零組件廠；與利奇花鼓、輪組及自行車零組件業務具同業競爭關係。
  • 桂盟 5306 台灣上櫃自行車鏈條與傳動零組件廠；產品線不同但同屬自行車關鍵零組件供應鏈，StockFeel 列為同業競爭公司。
  • Shimano 日本上市自行車零組件龍頭，非台股掛牌；於剎車、傳動與中高階自行車零件市場與利奇及其客戶選配形成競爭。
  • SRAM 美國未上市自行車傳動與煞車系統大廠，非台股掛牌；屬全球高階自行車零件主要競爭者。
  • Hayes 海外煞車系統品牌，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ 列為剎車器競爭對象。
  • Magura 德國煞車與懸吊相關品牌，非台股掛牌；MoneyDJ 列為剎車器競爭對象。
  • 彥豪智能科技 台灣自行車煞車系統品牌 Tektro/TRP 經營者；截至本研究日未確認為台股上市櫃公司，公開報導稱其規劃上市，MoneyDJ 列為剎車器競爭對象。
  • 信隆 主要掛牌地非台股上市櫃；MoneyDJ 列為把手、立管及座管競爭對象。
  • 金享 自行車把手、立管及座管相關競爭者；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 彰星 自行車剎車器相關競爭者；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.