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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 1526 日馳. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=1526
1526
quality needs a look, premium valuation, no active signal today.
Is 日馳 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 10th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ -2.0%.
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Valuation is high.PE is in the 80th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 96th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.1% of volume (net sell).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -29% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 元大-羅東 has accumulated 114 lots since the start (sold 15%), holding.
- Main distributor 國泰-敦南 peaked at 181 lots, has sold 39%, 111 left, paused recently.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders +1, retail -0.67pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -131 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 元大-羅東 +114
- 玉山-城中 +110
- 永全-南崁 +100
- 永豐金-鳳山 +89
- 群益金鼎-延平 +80
- 凱基-高美館 +70
Distributing
- 國泰-敦南 111 left
- 美好-蘆洲 81 left
- 元大-南投 65 left
- 元大證券 98 left
- 港商野村 33 left
- 元大-福營 12 left
Desks
- 康和-延平 -296
- 兆豐證券 -268
- 統一-台南 -197
- 台新-三民 -134
Mixed direction: big-holder and retail changes are not aligned.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 880 | +25.5% | +5.6% | 54.9% | +10.6% |
| 20-40 | 633 | +72% | +4.7% | 58.6% | +62.8% |
| 40-60 | 325 | +22.9% | +12.2% | 65.2% | +13.3% |
| 60-80 | 245 | +34% | +4.2% | 57.1% | +18.8% |
| 80-100 You are here | 170 | -11.6% | -11.4% | 31.8% | -28.7% |
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 45.0, at the 96.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
(27d)
Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 320 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 50.6%, win rate 56.6%, beat the market by 37.8%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.09%, win rate 38.9%, beating the market by +7.28 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
80 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.81%, win rate 48.6%, beating the market by +5.86 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
41 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.39%, win rate 43.6%, beating the market by +3.83 pts on average.
What does 日馳 do? Company profile
Overview
日馳企業股份有限公司為台灣上市普通股，股票代號 1526，上市日期為 2000/03/27。公司於 1972/05/26 設立，總部位於桃園市蘆竹區海山中街51號，董事長與總經理均為徐義雄，發言人為徐予霖。實收資本額新台幣 6 億元，已發行普通股 60,000,000 股。2025 年 12 月法說會揭露員工人數約 180 餘人；2024 年報揭露 2024 年底員工 161 人、2025/03/31 為 156 人。主要股東依 2024 年報為日倉投資股份有限公司 25.24%、日裕投資股份有限公司 2.04%、徐義雄 1.38%、徐貴壕 1.36%、林慧瑛 1.27%、朱錦森 1.24%、陳俊廷 1.03%、徐偉城 1.00%、楊茂盛 0.92%、黃慧禎 0.92%。公司以 SunRace 外變速器品牌與 Sturmey-Archer 內變速器品牌行銷國際，並透過荷蘭等轉投資公司強化歐洲據點。
Business
日馳主要從事自行車變速器與傳動系統零組件之研發、製造與銷售，產品包含內變速器、前變速器、後變速器、飛輪、大齒盤、變速把手、鏈條、花鼓、制動器組件與零配件。2024 年營業比重為傳動器組件 82.55%、制動器組件 0.73%、零配件 15.63%、其他 1.09%；2025 年前三季法說會揭露傳動器組件 83.53%、制動器組件 0.72%、零配件 14.79%、其他 0.96%。2024 年主要銷售地區為英國 25.66%、台灣 14.08%、德國 9.57%、中國 7.24%、荷蘭 6.32%、法國 4.83%、其他 32.30%，顯示歐洲為重要市場。2024 年合併營收 720,682 仟元，較 2023 年下降 27.58%，主要受自行車上下游庫存去化與買氣疲弱影響；2025 年全年公司官網月營收合計 771,039 仟元，年增約 6.99%；2026 年 1-5 月累計 268,701 仟元，年減約 18.2%。商業模式以自有品牌、利基型客製化訂單與中高階產品為核心，部分中低階非輸美產品由中國大陸轉投資事業製造以降低成本。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025-2028 展望：一、成長動能來自電動輔助自行車、城市通勤車、e-Cargo、高階登山車與內變速器應用。公司年報引用台灣電動智能自行車協會資訊，全球電動輔助自行車產值由 2021 年約 185 億美元，預估 2028 年達 522 億美元；歐洲電動自行車與傳統自行車銷量出現黃金交叉，城市車與電動城市車偏好內變速器，對日馳 Sturmey-Archer 內變速器產品線有利。二、公司 2025 年營業計畫包含新設電動內變速傳動系統產品線、持續開發高品質內外變速器、優化歐洲行銷能力、投資關鍵設備、縮短交期與管理生產成本。年報另揭露未來一年投資計畫為設立電動輔助自行車傳動系統產品線，2025 年預計投入研發費用約 21,835 仟元。三、產品技術方向包括新款自行車用內外混合變速器、新款外變速器系統、新款電動自行車用內外變速器、專利迴避與自主專利布局。四、主要挑戰為 2022-2024 年自行車產業庫存去化尚未完全結束、2026 年前五個月營收仍年減、Shimano 受日圓弱勢與規模優勢支撐競爭力、SRAM 與 Shimano 在高階 12 速系統掌握關鍵專利、亞洲低價競爭、人工裝配成本上升、匯率波動、歐盟 CBAM 於 2026 年正式實施帶來碳盤查與低碳製程壓力。五、若歐洲電動自行車需求恢復、客戶庫存回補、公司電動內變速產品線順利放量，2026-2028 有機會改善營收與毛利；但因公司近期仍有營業虧損與營收波動，展望能見度屬中等。
Supply Chain
- 廠商L 2024 年報匿名揭露之主要進貨供應商，2024 年進貨金額 14,091 仟元、占進貨淨額 14.37%；公司未揭露實名，無法確認是否上市櫃。
- 廠商Y 2024 年報匿名揭露之主要進貨供應商，2024 年進貨金額 13,634 仟元、占進貨淨額 13.90%；2025 年截至前一季止占進貨淨額 26.35%；公司未揭露實名。
- 圓鐵、鐵板、鋼鐵、鋁合金、塑膠與電鍍、熱處理、沖製、鍛造外協供應鏈 年報說明自行車變速器主要零件來源為圓鐵、鐵板等，經沖製、鍛造、電鍍、熱處理完成；鋼鐵、鋁合金、塑膠為自行車產業三大主要原料，但未揭露直接供應商名稱。
- 客戶O 2024 年報匿名揭露之主要銷貨客戶，2024 年銷貨 161,362 仟元、占銷貨淨額 22.39%；2025 年截至前一季止占銷貨淨額 21.53%；公司未揭露實名。
- 巨大機械股份有限公司 9921 年報描述自行車產業下游為巨大、美利達等成車廠；未確認巨大為日馳直接客戶，列為下游應用關係。
- 美利達工業股份有限公司 9914 年報描述自行車產業下游為巨大、美利達等成車廠；未確認美利達為日馳直接客戶，列為下游應用關係。
- 英國、德國、荷蘭、法國等歐洲經銷商與自行車品牌客戶 2024 年主要銷售地區以英國、德國、荷蘭、法國等歐洲市場為主，歐洲城市車與電動輔助自行車為主要終端應用之一；具體客戶名稱多未公開。
Competitors
- Shimano Inc.（島野） 日本上市公司，非台股掛牌；年報指出內變速器全球主要由日馳與 Shimano 供應，高階 12 速登山車後變速器主要供應商亦包含 Shimano。
- SRAM LLC 美國未上市公司；年報指出高階 12 速登山車後變速器主要供應商包含 SRAM，並具有關鍵技術專利布局。
- microSHIFT（微轉） 台灣自行車變速系統品牌，未查得台股上市櫃代號；屬外變速器與傳動系統競爭者之一。
- 桂盟國際股份有限公司 5306 台股上櫃自行車鏈條與傳動零件公司，產品與日馳並非完全重疊，但同屬自行車傳動零組件供應鏈。
- 彥豪金屬工業股份有限公司 4566 台股上市自行車煞車系統與零組件公司，與日馳制動器組件部分有鄰近競爭或替代關係，但日馳制動器營收占比低。
- 利奇機械工業股份有限公司 1517 台股上市自行車零組件與車架相關公司，屬自行車零組件同業，產品線與日馳不完全相同。
Sources（10）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.