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2606

裕民 Shipping As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal

Revenue ≥20%

This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 裕民 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.

Is 裕民 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~89% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.5%.
Valuation is low.PE is in the 14th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 27th percentile.
Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.4% of volume (net buy).
Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 41.8%, above the 20% growth threshold.
Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.74

BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
美商高盛 holds 13,906 lots
sellers have 10,236 lots left, ~78 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +0% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

Largest holder 美商高盛 has accumulated 13,906 lots since the start (sold 13%), now trimming.
Main distributor 新加坡商瑞銀 peaked at 10,369 lots, has sold 81%, 1,945 left, ~8 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +5.14pp, mid holders +11, retail -5.48pp — concentration shifting upward.
Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -533 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).

Branch inventory reconstruction

Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.

Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.

Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.

Accumulating

美商高盛凱基-台北台灣摩根士丹利摩根大通香港上海匯豐美林

Distributing

新加坡商瑞銀台新-台北華南永昌統一兆豐證券元富

Desks

own scale

富邦證券群益金鼎元大證券台新

Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline

Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

美商高盛 +13,906

sold 13%
凱基-台北 +13,483

sold 0%· still adding
台灣摩根士丹利 +12,061

sold 15%
摩根大通 +8,204

sold 0%· still adding
香港上海匯豐 +4,655

sold 0%· still adding
美林 +3,554

sold 25%

Distributing

新加坡商瑞銀 1,945 left

sold 81%· ~8 sessions to clear
台新-台北 3,643 left

sold 54%· ~29 sessions to clear
華南永昌 2,323 left

sold 30%· ~78 sessions to clear
統一 1,059 left

sold 64%· paused recently
兆豐證券 1,145 left

sold 56%· ~10 sessions to clear
元富 753 left

sold 55%· paused recently

Desks

富邦證券 -9,551

unclassified
群益金鼎 -8,679

unclassified
元大證券 -7,569

unclassified
台新 -5,075

unclassified

Still selling 10,236 lots ~78 sessions to bottom at most

Recent buy/sell force +12,270 absorbed / -5,743 sold buyers slightly ahead

TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check

>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 41.77%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

70 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)

120 days after: historical avg -1.04%

20-day +1.11%

60-day +0.26%

120-day -1.04%

20-day

60-day

120-day

Win

47.8%

44.1%

45.6%

Sample

Median

-0.33%

-0.95%

-0.69%

Excess

+1.04%

+0.23%

-1.25%

Beat mkt rate

46.4%

44.1%

39.7%

Over 68 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 1.04%, lagged the market by 1.25 pts; win rate 45.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

0-20 +11.4%

20-40 +11.2% Now

40-60 +26.1%

60-80 +5.5%

80-100 +9.9%

PE percentile band	Sample days	240-day avg return	Median	Win rate	Avg excess (vs index)
0-20	330	+11.4%	+12.3%	73%	-10.4%
20-40 You are here	539	+11.2%	+8.6%	72.4%	-17.3%
40-60	488	+26.1%	+11.4%	63.3%	+7.6%
60-80	698	+5.5%	-7.2%	33.8%	-7.4%
80-100	726	+9.9%	+3.9%	56.9%	-3.6%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.94, at the 27.3th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation

Momentum

Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)

Mid

Expensive (own-history top 1/3)

60-day momentum up

Now

-5.8%

Win rate 31.8% Excess -11.8%

396d

+8.2%

Win rate 68.3% Excess -9.7%

521d

+13.2%

Win rate 48.5% Excess +6%

633d

60-day momentum down

+13.6%

Win rate 82% Excess +4%

455d

+4.1%

Win rate 51.4% Excess -3.6%

290d

+1.9%

Win rate 41.9% Excess -4.6%

606d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 396 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 5.8%, win rate 31.8%, lagged the market by 11.8%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 times historically; 60-day forward avg +0.26%, win rate 36.8%, beating the market by -2.26 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

64 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.9%, win rate 57.1%, beating the market by -0.63 pts on average.

What does 裕民 do? Company profile

航運業；以乾散貨航運為核心，兼營油輪、液化天然氣運輸與離岸風電工作船等業務台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2606 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，中文簡稱「裕民」，公司全名為裕民航運股份有限公司，英文名 U-MING MARINE TRANSPORT CORP.。公司成立於 1968-08-29，於 1990-12-08 掛牌上市，隸屬遠東集團，總部位於台北市敦化南路二段207號29樓。董事長為徐旭東，總經理為王書吉，發言人為張宗良。實收資本額為新台幣 8,450,557,120 元，已發行普通股 845,055,712 股。2025 年報揭露截至 2026-03-23 從業員工合計 1,210 人，其中岸上 159 人、船員 1,051 人。主要股東方面，2025 年報揭露亞洲水泥股份有限公司持有 331,701,152 股、持股 39.25%，為最大股東；另有群益台灣精選高息 ETF 基金專戶 6.95%、元大台灣高股息低波動 ETF 基金專戶 2.55%、遠鼎投資 1.05%、裕元投資 0.94%、亞洲投資 0.92% 等。公司官網船隊概況列示船隊運力 84 艘、總載重噸位約 996 萬噸、自有散裝船隊平均船齡約 7.8 年，海外設有新加坡、香港、廈門等子公司。

Business

裕民以船舶運送、船舶買賣、甲種船務代理與船舶管理為主，核心商業模式是以自有、合資、代管及長短約配置船隊，承攬全球大宗物資與能源運輸，透過長約穩定貨源、現貨市場參與運價循環，並以船隊燃油效率、船齡、航線調度與貨主關係創造利差。2025 年合併營收新台幣 155.6582 億元，其中運費收入 153.31293 億元、占 98%，其他營業收入 2.34527 億元、占 2%；2025 年 EPS 為 4.31 元，低於 2024 年 EPS 5.54 元，主要受全年乾散貨運價較前一年弱化影響。主要運載貨種包含鐵礦砂、煤炭、穀物、水泥、鋁土礦及其他乾散貨，並跨足油輪、LNG 與離岸風電工作船。2025 年報揭露主要船隊包含海岬型散裝貨輪 25 艘、巴拿馬極限型營運管理船隊 24 艘、極限靈便型 8 艘、超大型油輪與 LR1 成品油輪合計 4 艘、水泥專用自卸輪 4 艘、人員運輸船 6 艘；官網另列示 VLOC、LNG Carrier、CTV、CSOV 等船型。合併主要客戶方面，2025 年 Rio Tinto Shipping Pty Ltd. 占營收 15%，Anglo American Marketing Ltd. 占 10%，Vale International SA 占 7%；個體主要客戶則以台灣電力公司 49%、亞洲水泥 32%、裕民新加坡公司 7% 為主。公司終端需求高度連動全球鋼鐵、能源、基礎建設、礦業、電力、水泥與離岸風電產業。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年已呈現開低走高的乾散貨循環：年初受巴西雨季與澳洲颶風壓抑鐵礦砂出貨，第二季後因澳洲礦商集中出貨、Vale 增加鐵礦石出口、中國鋼廠進口需求回溫，以及第四季補庫、糧食運輸旺季與市場提前反映幾內亞 Simandou 西芒杜鐵礦投產，BDI 於 2025 年 12 月升至全年高點 2,339 點，全年平均 BDI 1,681 點，較 2024 年小幅下滑 4%。2026 年展望仍具不確定性：公司年報引用 IMF 預估 2026 年全球經濟成長率由 2025 年 3.2% 微降至 3.1%，Clarksons 預估 2026 年散裝船供給成長 3.5%、乾散貨延噸海浬需求成長約 1.9%，短期供需仍有壓力；但長航線、紅海繞航、Simandou 鐵礦逐步啟動、西非與巴西等長程出口、低新船訂單比例、老船特檢與環保法規降低有效運力，對運價有結構性支撐。公司成長動能包括：首艘 17.4 萬立方米級 LNG 運輸船預計 2026 年交付，正式跨足 LNG 能源運輸；2024 年底訂購 6 艘 6.4 萬噸極限靈便型散裝貨輪與 4 艘 18 萬噸海岬型散裝貨輪，預計 2027 年起陸續交付；中長期目標朝船隊 100 艘、總載重噸 1,000 萬噸邁進；裕民風能與英國 Purus 集團合作成立 UPO，已訂造 2 艘配備油電混合推進與全電動 Walk-to-Work 系統的 CSOV 風電運維母船，布局亞太離岸風電運維市場；公司亦規劃導入 B100 生質柴油實船試運，2025 年 VLOC「裕元輪」完成四具旋筒風帆安裝，估計可降低約 10% 至 12% 燃油消耗與碳排。2026 至 2028 年環保資本支出預估分別約 197 萬美元、856 萬美元及 880 萬美元，包含壓載水處理、脫硫塔、轉子帆、軸發電機等設備。主要風險包括 BDI 與各船型日租金波動、全球貿易保護主義與關稅政策、地緣政治與紅海危機、油價與匯率利率波動、中國房市與鋼鐵需求疲弱、煤炭需求受能源轉型壓抑、環保法規與 EU ETS/CII 合規成本、替代燃料價格及供應限制，以及 2027 年後全球新船交付對供給端的壓力。

Supply Chain

Upstream

Sinopec Fuel Oil (Singapore) Pte Ltd. 主要船舶油料供應商之一，2025 年合併主要進貨成本約新台幣 5.24146 億元，占合併營業成本 5%；為海外公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
台灣中油公司船舶油料供應商，2025 年個體主要進貨成本約新台幣 1.38474 億元，占個體營業成本 9%；未於台股掛牌。
Marubeni Petroleum Co., Ltd. 船舶油料供應商，2025 年個體進貨成本約新台幣 4,845.5 萬元，占個體營業成本 3%；為海外公司，非台股上市櫃公司。
船廠與節能設備供應商裕民新造船採 ECO-DESIGN，導入壓載水處理系統、脫硫塔、轉子帆、軸發電機、梅維斯導管、螺旋槳節能鰭片、矽基防污塗料等；年報未完整揭露所有供應商名稱，故以供應鏈類別列示。

Downstream

Rio Tinto Shipping Pty Ltd. 全球礦商 Rio Tinto 旗下航運採購相關公司，為裕民合併主要客戶；2025 年收入約新台幣 23.20092 億元，占合併營收 15%；非台股上市櫃公司。
Anglo American Marketing Ltd. 國際礦業集團 Anglo American 相關行銷公司，為裕民合併主要客戶；2025 年收入約新台幣 15.07010 億元，占合併營收 10%；非台股上市櫃公司。
Vale International SA 巴西淡水河谷集團相關公司，為 2025 年裕民合併主要客戶之一；2025 年收入約新台幣 10.75193 億元，占合併營收 7%；非台股上市櫃公司。
台灣電力公司電力公用事業客戶，裕民個體主要客戶；2025 年收入約新台幣 9.66624 億元，占個體營收 49%；未於台股掛牌。
亞洲水泥股份有限公司 1102 水泥運輸與關係企業客戶，亦為裕民最大股東；2025 年裕民個體對亞洲水泥收入約新台幣 6.30910 億元，占個體營收 32%；台股上市公司。
BHP Billiton Freight Singapore Pte. Ltd. 國際礦業集團 BHP 相關航運採購公司，2024 年為裕民合併主要客戶之一，2025 年未達 10% 門檻；非台股上市櫃公司。

Competitors

新興航運股份有限公司 2605 台股上市航運公司，散裝航運同業。
台灣航業股份有限公司 2617 台股上市航運公司，散裝與能源運輸相關同業。
中國航運股份有限公司 2612 台股上市航運公司，亦與裕民、台灣中油合資環能海運，部分業務具競合關係。
慧洋海運股份有限公司 2637 台股上市航運公司，乾散貨船隊同業。
四維航業股份有限公司 5608 台股上市櫃航運公司，乾散貨運輸同業。
益航股份有限公司 2601 台股上市航運公司，散裝航運同業。
東森國際股份有限公司 2614 台股上市公司，歷史上列為航運相關競爭者之一；目前業務已多角化，與裕民核心乾散貨航運的可比性較低。
日本郵船 NYK Line 日本上市航運公司，全球大型航運競爭者；非台股上市櫃公司。
商船三井 Mitsui O.S.K. Lines 日本上市航運公司，全球乾散貨、油輪與能源運輸競爭者；非台股上市櫃公司。
川崎汽船 K Line 日本上市航運公司，全球乾散貨與能源運輸競爭者；非台股上市櫃公司。
中國遠洋海運集團 COSCO Shipping 中國大型國有航運集團，全球航運競爭者；旗下部分公司在香港或中國上市，但非台股上市櫃公司。

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.