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2704

國賓 Tourism & Hospitality As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, fair valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 國賓 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 59Quality 33Growth 30Momentum 54Chips 73

Is 國賓 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 38th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.2%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 55th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 50th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 4.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.64
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 統一-南京 holds 788 lots
  • sellers have 29 lots left, ~70 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 統一-南京 has accumulated 788 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 兆豐證券 peaked at 36 lots, has sold 31%, 25 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.85pp, mid holders +3, retail -0.81pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -412 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
統一-南京玉山-信義元大-仁愛兆豐-松德元富-信義台新-信義
Distributing
兆豐證券富邦-板橋群益金鼎-台中元大-府城法銀巴黎國泰-館前
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀新光美商高盛台灣摩根士丹利
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 統一-南京 +788
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山-信義 +479
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-仁愛 +452
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-松德 +434
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-信義 +234
    sold 0%
  • 台新-信義 +221
    sold 3%

Distributing

  • 兆豐證券 25 left
    sold 31%· paused recently
  • 富邦-板橋 23 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎-台中 3 left
    sold 88%· paused recently
  • 元大-府城 3 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 法銀巴黎 7 left
    sold 50%· ~70 sessions to clear
  • 國泰-館前 7 left
    sold 46%· ~12 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -357
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新光 -312
    unclassified
  • 美商高盛 -302
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -296
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 29 lots ~70 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +819 absorbed / -27 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -401 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 historical occurrences (since 2008-05-19)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 46.7%, Sample 15, Median -0.36%, Excess +1.02%, Beat mkt rate 53.3%；60-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 15, Median -3.73%, Excess -0.41%, Beat mkt rate 40%；120-day: Win 33.3%, Sample 15, Median -4.25%, Excess -2.36%, Beat mkt rate 40%

120 days after: historical avg -2.72%

20-day +1.23%
60-day +0.38%
120-day -2.72%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.7%
33.3%
33.3%
Sample
15
15
15
Median
-0.36%
-3.73%
-4.25%
Excess
+1.02%
-0.41%
-2.36%
Beat mkt rate
53.3%
40%
40%

Over 15 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 2.72%, lagged the market by 2.36 pts; win rate 33.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1686+2.8% -0.7% 44% -13%
20-40 226+8% +0.4% 52.7% -18.5%
40-60 You are here164+4.2% -0.7% 46.3% -20.9%
60-80 74-12.2% -6.1% 31.1% -26.4%
80-100 448+32.6% +24.7% 92.2% +13.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 25.75, at the 50.1th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-1%
Win rate 25.3% Excess -5.7%
790d
Now
+1.1%
Win rate 43.4% Excess -4.3%
113d
+10.9%
Win rate 64.7% Excess -7.2%
309d
60-day momentum down
+2.2%
Win rate 43.5% Excess -8.7%
1142d
+7.1%
Win rate 75.7% Excess -5.7%
144d
+14.6%
Win rate 79.5% Excess +5.3%
220d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 113 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 1.1%, win rate 43.4%, lagged the market by 4.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

17 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.1%, win rate 46.7%, beating the market by -2.05 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

59 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.09%, win rate 53.4%, beating the market by -2.26 pts on average.

What does 國賓 do? Company profile

觀光餐旅 上市

Overview

國賓大飯店股份有限公司為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，股票代號2704，產業別為觀光餐旅。公司成立於1962年12月1日，1982年11月10日上市，總部位於台北市中山區中山北路2段65巷9號2樓，統一編號11636802。董事長為許育瑞，總經理為許家堯；實收資本額約新台幣36.69億元，已發行普通股366,923,343股，無特別股。公司官網投資人關係頁說明其定位為酒店投資管理集團，旗下經營五星級飯店與餐廳，並持續擴展飯店與餐飲品牌組合。股務代理為中國信託商業銀行。公開資料顯示公司屬仰德集團；主要股東名單可見仰德投資事業、新保投資、和昇投資、士林電機、鼎林企業、常德投資、三共運輸、景德勝等，但各股東最新持股比例需以公開資訊觀測站年報與股東名簿為準。員工規模公開來源不一致，104人力銀行頁面列示約1000人，較早期百科資料列示1400人，故此處僅作區間參考。

Business

國賓主要經營國際觀光大飯店、餐飲、宴會會議、烘焙與線上禮盒銷售等業務。旗下營運品牌與據點包含新竹國賓大飯店、台北國賓改建期間於遼寧街持續營運的餐廳、A Cut牛排館、Corner Bakery63國賓麵包房等；高雄國賓已結束原飯店營運並進入改建相關程序。2025年度營收分布依年報彙整資料為：餐飲新台幣1,068,624千元，占78.74%；客房242,503千元，占17.86%；其他45,958千元，占3.40%。商業模式以自有品牌飯店與餐飲服務收取住宿、餐飲、宴會、會議、禮盒及相關服務收入，並透過品牌、地段資產、餐飲口碑與會員或企業客戶關係維持客源。主要客戶包含商務旅客、休閒旅客、宴會與婚宴客戶、企業會議活動客戶、餐飲消費者及線上購物消費者；終端應用為住宿、商務會議、婚宴宴會、精緻餐飲與伴手禮。2025年全年累計合併營收為新台幣1,357,085千元，年增4.18%；2026年1至5月累計營收為587,970千元，年增1.3%。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年核心展望可分為本業復甦、餐飲韌性、改建案價值重估與執行風險四部分。第一，餐飲仍為最大營收來源，2025年餐飲占比接近八成，若台灣餐飲市場與國旅、商務活動維持成長，遼寧街餐廳、新竹國賓、A Cut及烘焙禮盒可支撐短中期現金流。第二，住宿端受台北原址與高雄原址改建影響，短期可售房間數受限，但新竹國賓與餐飲品牌仍可貢獻營收；公司年報致股東報告提到2025年餐飲收入年增3.4%、客房年增7.5%、整體營收年增4.3%，並看好2026年台北國賓遼寧餐廳及新竹國賓業績持續提升。第三，台北國賓原址危老重建為中長期最大成長動能之一；官方網站揭露台北國賓2022至2028年改建期間餐廳持續於遼寧街營運，三菱地所設計資料指出新設施計畫於2028年春季竣工，媒體報導則提到台北國賓皇宮酒店目標約2028年底至2029年初重現，實際開幕時間仍需以公司公告為準。第四，高雄國賓合作開發案目前仍面臨都審、危老、容積、居民抗爭與建照程序等不確定性；公開報導指出拆除許可已核發且拆除作業進行中，但尚未取得建造執照，且完工時間可能落在2031年前後，故2028年前對營運貢獻不確定。主要風險包括來台旅客恢復速度不及預期、國旅消費疲弱、餐飲人力與食材成本上升、飯店與餐飲競爭激烈、食品安全事件、改建工程延宕或成本超支、法規審查與居民抗爭、利率與不動產景氣變動，以及營收高度依賴餐飲而住宿供給短期受限。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 生鮮食材、肉品、海鮮、酒水與烘焙原物料供應商 飯店餐飲與烘焙業務之主要投入；公開資料未揭露具名直接供應商，因此不指定台股代號。
  • 飯店設備、資訊系統、清潔洗滌、物業維護與能源服務供應商 支援客房、餐飲、宴會與物業管理營運；公開資料未揭露具名直接供應商。
  • 三菱地所設計 日本企業，參與台北國賓大飯店重建計畫之設計相關工作，非台股上市櫃公司。
  • 大陸建設 高雄國賓合作開發案公開報導提及之開發單位；非台股上市櫃公司。
Downstream
  • 個人旅客與餐飲消費者 住宿、精緻餐飲、烘焙、禮盒與線上購物之終端消費者，非公司法人。
  • 企業會議、宴會與婚宴客戶 會議、宴會、婚宴及商務餐飲服務之主要需求來源；公開資料未揭露具名客戶。
  • 旅行社與訂房平台 住宿產品可能透過旅行社、OTA與訂房平台導流；公開資料未揭露具名直接合作名單。
  • 雄獅 2731 台股上市旅行社，屬觀光旅遊通路同業生態系之潛在通路或客源來源；未確認為國賓直接重大客戶。
  • 鳳凰 5706 台股上市旅行社，屬觀光旅遊通路同業生態系之潛在通路或客源來源；未確認為國賓直接重大客戶。

Competitors

  • 晶華 2707 台股上市觀光飯店業者，旗下晶華酒店與餐飲業務為高端住宿與餐飲競爭對手。
  • 寒舍 2739 台股上市觀光餐旅業者，經營台北喜來登、寒舍艾美等飯店與餐飲，與國賓在高端商務、宴會與餐飲市場競爭。
  • 雲品 2748 台股上市觀光餐旅業者，經營飯店、宴會與餐飲服務，為同業競爭者。
  • 六福 2705 台股上市觀光餐旅業者，經營飯店、餐飲與休閒服務，為同業競爭者。
  • 第一店 2706 台股上市觀光飯店業者，為住宿與餐飲市場競爭者。
  • 夏都 2722 台股上市觀光餐旅業者，偏休閒度假飯店定位，為旅宿市場競爭者。
  • 王品 2727 台股上市連鎖餐飲集團，雖非飯店業，但在高端與多人聚餐餐飲市場與國賓餐飲品牌競爭。
  • 八方雲集 2753 台股上市餐飲業者，餐飲定位不同，但同屬外食消費市場競爭者。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.