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2801

彰銀 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

3 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 彰銀 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 77Quality 74Growth 69Momentum 65Chips 92

Is 彰銀 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~90% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.3%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 23th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 49th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 11.1% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 24.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral +0.13
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 第一金-光復 holds 38,961 lots
  • sellers have 8,120 lots left, ~20 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +13% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 第一金-光復 has accumulated 38,961 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 21,785 lots, has sold 79%, 4,477 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.51pp, mid holders -3, retail +0.44pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -58,425 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
第一金-光復統一港商麥格理台灣摩根士丹利富邦證券彰銀
Distributing
摩根大通美商高盛國泰-敦南臺銀-高雄台新-虎尾台新-大昌
Desks
own scale
美林新加坡商瑞銀花旗環球永豐金證券
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 第一金-光復 +38,961
    sold 0%
  • 統一 +10,535
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 港商麥格理 +8,117
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +7,889
    sold 11%· still adding
  • 富邦證券 +6,443
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 彰銀 +6,302
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 4,477 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 美商高盛 2,040 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 3,583 left
    sold 53%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 臺銀-高雄 578 left
    sold 90%· paused recently
  • 台新-虎尾 836 left
    sold 83%· paused recently
  • 台新-大昌 1,484 left
    sold 57%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美林 -25,537
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -13,569
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 花旗環球 -13,485
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 永豐金證券 -9,699
    unclassified
Still selling 8,120 lots ~20 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +56,445 absorbed / -9,291 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -52,591 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

40 historical occurrences (since 2009-11-16)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 51.3%, Sample 39, Median +0.54%, Excess +0.08%, Beat mkt rate 53.8%；60-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 39, Median +0.29%, Excess -1.58%, Beat mkt rate 38.5%；120-day: Win 71.1%, Sample 38, Median +2.22%, Excess -3.77%, Beat mkt rate 36.8%

120 days after: historical avg +5.11%

20-day +0.88%
60-day +2.62%
120-day +5.11%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.3%
61.5%
71.1%
Sample
39
39
38
Median
+0.54%
+0.29%
+2.22%
Excess
+0.08%
-1.58%
-3.77%
Beat mkt rate
53.8%
38.5%
36.8%

Over 38 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.11%, lagged the market by 3.77 pts; win rate 71.1%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 24.59%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

45 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 56.1%, Sample 41, Median +0.56%, Excess -0.76%, Beat mkt rate 34.1%；60-day: Win 57.5%, Sample 40, Median +1.32%, Excess -0.39%, Beat mkt rate 35%；120-day: Win 72.5%, Sample 40, Median +4.52%, Excess -1.6%, Beat mkt rate 35%

120 days after: historical avg +5.91%

20-day +0.87%
60-day +3.1%
120-day +5.91%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
56.1%
57.5%
72.5%
Sample
41
40
40
Median
+0.56%
+1.32%
+4.52%
Excess
-0.76%
-0.39%
-1.6%
Beat mkt rate
34.1%
35%
35%

Over 40 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.91%, lagged the market by 1.6 pts; win rate 72.5%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 7%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

86 historical occurrences (since 2012-06-20)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 42.4%, Sample 85, Median -0.29%, Excess -0.91%, Beat mkt rate 40%；60-day: Win 56%, Sample 84, Median +0.56%, Excess -1.39%, Beat mkt rate 45.2%；120-day: Win 77.1%, Sample 83, Median +2.75%, Excess -3.12%, Beat mkt rate 41%

120 days after: historical avg +3.39%

20-day +0.03%
60-day +1.21%
120-day +3.39%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
42.4%
56%
77.1%
Sample
85
84
83
Median
-0.29%
+0.56%
+2.75%
Excess
-0.91%
-1.39%
-3.12%
Beat mkt rate
40%
45.2%
41%

Over 83 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.39%, lagged the market by 3.12 pts; win rate 77.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 245+13.4% +12.2% 100% -7.1%
20-40 569+10% +8.7% 74.9% -4.9%
40-60 You are here1008+12.2% +10.1% 89.9% -3.5%
60-80 479+9.2% +8% 88.9% -12.6%
80-100 742-0.7% +0.2% 50.7% -14.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 14.34, at the 48.6th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+4.8%
Win rate 80.8% Excess -4.8%
339d
Now
+5.6%
Win rate 83.7% Excess -3.4%
1187d
+1%
Win rate 52.7% Excess -2.6%
598d
60-day momentum down
+4.4%
Win rate 64.6% Excess -0.6%
322d
+8.4%
Win rate 94.3% Excess -0.9%
349d
+0.4%
Win rate 48.6% Excess -15.3%
368d

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum up”: across 1187 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.6%, win rate 83.7%, lagged the market by 3.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

What does 彰銀 do? Company profile

金融保險業／銀行業 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2801 對應證券為彰化商業銀行股份有限公司普通股，簡稱彰銀，於台灣證券交易所上市。彰銀前身創設於 1905 年 6 月 5 日，1947 年 3 月 1 日正式改組為彰化商業銀行，1950 年 7 月 1 日完成股份有限公司登記；上市日期為 1962 年 2 月 15 日。公司登記地址為臺中市自由路二段 38 號，主要營運與總機資訊為臺北市中山區中山北路二段 57 號、電話 02-25362951。董事長為胡光華，總經理為簡志光。實收資本額依公開基本資料為新臺幣 117,660,462,530 元，已發行普通股 11,766,046,253 股。員工規模依 2024 年報截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日為 6,777 人。主要股東依 2025 年 4 月 15 日名單：財政部 12.19%、中華郵政 7.50%、行政院國家發展基金管理會 5.42%、第一商業銀行 4.09%、台新金融控股 2.68%、合興石化工業 2.53%、合作金庫商業銀行 2.39%、臺灣銀行 1.81%、臺灣土地銀行 1.80%、臺灣中小企業銀行 1.40%。

Business

彰銀為商業銀行，主要經營存款、放款、外匯、信用卡、數位金融、信託、財富管理、金融交易與其他銀行業可辦業務。2024 年底存款合計約新臺幣 2.749 兆元，其中活期性存款約 49.23%、定期性存款約 46.40%、同業存款約 4.37%；放款合計約新臺幣 1.990 兆元，其中短期放款 22.14%、中期放款 33.58%、長期放款 44.28%。2024 年營業淨收益結構為利息淨收益 54.92%、手續費淨收益 16.42%、財務交易淨收益 27.98%、證券經紀及承銷淨收益 0.44%、其他營業淨收益 0.24%。信用卡業務 2024 年有效卡約 320,805 卡，簽帳金額約新臺幣 293.73 億元；數位金融方面，數位存款帳戶數約 970,629 戶，線上貸款平均餘額成長明顯。財富管理以保險代理、信託、基金、外國債券、結構型商品與高資產客戶服務為主，2024 年財富管理手續費淨收益占整體手續費淨收益 67.84%。通路方面，截至 2024 年底國內分行 185 家、ATM 638 台，並有海外據點與中國大陸子銀行彰銀商業銀行有限公司；客戶以企業金融、中小企業、個人金融、房貸戶、財富管理客戶、臺商與跨境金融客戶為核心。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以銀行本業利差、財富管理、海外與 OBU、數位金融、永續金融及風險控管為主軸。公司 2025 年策略延續「以客為本，永續誠信」與 4C 永續目標，方向包括深耕國內市場、強化國際化發展、發展 AI 與 RPA 流程自動化、提高防詐與資安韌性、調整資產負債結構、提升資金運用效率、擴大企金與個金「雙翅膀」。成長動能包括：中小企業放款、房貸與理財型房貸、高資產財富管理 2.0、保險代理與信託手續費、海外放款與 OBU 業務、臺商供應鏈移轉帶來的跨境融資與金流需求、綠色授信與永續金融。2025 年第一季公司公告顯示，合併稅後盈餘新臺幣 41.35 億元、年增 7.92%，放款年增 8.07%，海外放款年增 23.49%，財富管理手續費收入年增 11.05%；海外獲利占比由 2024 年底 12.4% 提升至 23.7%，澳洲雪梨、加拿大多倫多及馬來西亞納閩等據點布局為後續海外業務重點。2026 年法說新聞指出，2025 全年總資產達新臺幣 3.38 兆元、放款餘額年增 5.11%、海外放款年增 22.32%、海外與 OBU 獲利占比 23.9%，2026 年聚焦「優結構、擴利差、深協作、穩體質」。2027 至 2028 年可延伸觀察海外據點開業貢獻、財管 2.0 高資產客群成效、AI/數位通路降低成本與提升交叉銷售、綠色金融需求，以及利率循環變動對 NIM 的影響。主要風險包括臺灣銀行業家數多且商品同質性高、純網銀與非銀行金融科技競爭、央行選擇性信用管制與不動產授信限制、全球利率與匯率波動、地緣政治與關稅政策不確定性、海外授信資產品質、法遵與洗錢防制成本、資安與 AI 導入風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶與同業資金市場 銀行主要資金來源；2024 年存款包含活期性存款、定期性存款與同業存款，屬資金端供應來源，非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 金融商品發行與資產管理業者 支援財富管理、基金、外國債券、結構型商品與保險代理銷售；多數商品供應商未逐一揭露，可能包含境內外基金、保險與投資商品發行機構。
  • 金融科技、資訊系統、ATM、文件處理與外包服務商 支援數位銀行、AI、大數據、RPA、資安、ATM 與信用卡文件列印寄送等作業；年報有揭露部分委外契約如百通科技股份有限公司，該公司非台股上市櫃。
  • 中央銀行、金融監督管理委員會與存款保險制度 提供銀行業貨幣、監理、流動性與存款保險框架；屬制度性上游環境，非公司。
Downstream
  • 中小企業與企業金融客戶 主要放款、授信、外匯、收付款、薪轉與跨境金融客戶；彰銀 2024 年表示持續拓展中小企業授信，中小企業放款餘額較 2023 年底增加超過 400 億元，非單一公司。
  • 個人金融與房貸客戶 房貸、消金、信用卡、數位存款、線上貸款與支付服務終端客戶；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 高資產與財富管理客戶 保險代理、信託、基金、外國債券、結構型商品與資產傳承服務客戶；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 海外臺商與跨境企業客戶 海外分行、OBU、中國大陸子銀行及規劃中海外據點服務之跨境融資、外匯與金流客戶；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 政府與政策性金融客戶 配合中小企業放款、新南向、綠色金融、低碳智慧納管、六大核心戰略產業等政策貸款與公庫相關業務；非單一公司。

Competitors

Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.