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2882

國泰金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 國泰金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 56Quality 86Growth 94Momentum 86Chips 98

Is 國泰金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~97% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 36th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 69th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 25.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 130.6%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.51
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 117,207 lots
  • sellers have 29,641 lots left, ~26 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +47% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 117,207 lots since the start (sold 6%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 38,329 lots, has sold 37%, 24,303 left, ~25 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.76pp, mid holders +27, retail -0.78pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -37,564 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛花旗環球美林港商麥格理香港上海匯豐
Distributing
摩根大通國票-敦北法人台新-台北華南永昌-中正統一-新竹華南永昌-南京
Desks
own scale
國泰證券凱基-台北玉山證券康和
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +117,207
    sold 6%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +98,658
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +42,777
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +41,653
    sold 21%
  • 港商麥格理 +23,706
    sold 10%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +22,901
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 24,303 left
    sold 37%· ~25 sessions to clear
  • 國票-敦北法人 3,344 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 台新-台北 1,482 left
    sold 76%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 華南永昌-中正 3,407 left
    sold 28%· ~26 sessions to clear
  • 統一-新竹 1,008 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-南京 183 left
    sold 82%· paused recently

Desks

  • 國泰證券 -38,568
    unclassified
  • 凱基-台北 -34,586
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 玉山證券 -33,833
    unclassified
  • 康和 -27,333
    unclassified
Still selling 29,641 lots ~26 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +81,704 absorbed / -16,651 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

30 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-18)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 53.3%, Sample 30, Median +0.49%, Excess +1.26%, Beat mkt rate 60%；60-day: Win 58.6%, Sample 29, Median +2.91%, Excess -0.5%, Beat mkt rate 51.7%；120-day: Win 59.3%, Sample 27, Median +2.6%, Excess +0.89%, Beat mkt rate 44.4%

120 days after: historical avg +6.24%

20-day +2.56%
60-day +3.81%
120-day +6.24%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.3%
58.6%
59.3%
Sample
30
29
27
Median
+0.49%
+2.91%
+2.6%
Excess
+1.26%
-0.5%
+0.89%
Beat mkt rate
60%
51.7%
44.4%

Over 27 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 6.24%, beat the market by 0.89 pts; win rate 59.3%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 130.63%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

94 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 51.7%, Sample 87, Median +0.29%, Excess -0.01%, Beat mkt rate 36.8%；60-day: Win 56.3%, Sample 87, Median +3.77%, Excess -0.03%, Beat mkt rate 40.2%；120-day: Win 62.1%, Sample 87, Median +4.5%, Excess -0.95%, Beat mkt rate 39.1%

120 days after: historical avg +8.03%

20-day +1.15%
60-day +4.67%
120-day +8.03%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
51.7%
56.3%
62.1%
Sample
87
87
87
Median
+0.29%
+3.77%
+4.5%
Excess
-0.01%
-0.03%
-0.95%
Beat mkt rate
36.8%
40.2%
39.1%

Over 87 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.03%, lagged the market by 0.95 pts; win rate 62.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1796+10.1% +8.1% 58.7% -3.3%
20-40 742+8.9% +9% 77.1% -10.4%
40-60 186+10.8% +5.5% 90.3% -2%
60-80 You are here129+38.8% +49.5% 100% +9.3%
80-100 125+44.6% +43.2% 100% +6.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 17.22, at the 69.1th percentile of its own history (60-80 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+5.8%
Win rate 65.6% Excess +0.4%
1410d
+13.6%
Win rate 77.4% Excess +2%
389d
Now
+5.7%
Win rate 79.1% Excess -6.3%
153d
60-day momentum down
+3.9%
Win rate 59.6% Excess -5.6%
986d
+17.3%
Win rate 86.1% Excess -1.9%
137d
Insufficient data
(23d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 153 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.7%, win rate 79.1%, lagged the market by 6.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

76 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.85%, win rate 58.7%, beating the market by -0.23 pts on average.

What does 國泰金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股 TWSE

Overview

2882 為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券簡稱「國泰金」。公司成立及上市日期均為 2001-12-31，係由原國泰人壽股東以股份轉換方式設立。總部位於臺北市大安區仁愛路四段296號；董事長為蔡宏圖，總經理為李長庚。官方公司基本資料列示資本額新臺幣162,025,101,280元，其中普通股股本146,692,101,280元、特別股股本15,333,000,000元；員工數51,797人（2025-12）。主要子公司包括國泰人壽、國泰世華銀行、國泰世紀產險、國泰綜合證券、國泰投信、國泰創投。依113年度年報前十大股東資料，主要股東包括萬寶開發股份有限公司15.68%、霖園投資股份有限公司13.88%、新制勞工退休基金2.60%、新光人壽保險股份有限公司1.91%、花旗（臺灣）託管新加坡政府投資專戶1.71%。集團客戶數超過1,500萬人，總資產超過新臺幣14兆元，海外布局涵蓋大陸、香港、越南、柬埔寨、泰國、菲律賓、印尼、新加坡、馬來西亞、寮國、緬甸等亞太市場。

Business

國泰金是大型金融控股平台，核心業務涵蓋人壽保險、銀行、產險、證券經紀與承銷、自營與金融商品、投信投顧、資產管理與創投。商業模式以子公司金融服務收入、保險保費與投資收益、銀行利息淨收益與手續費、證券經紀與複委託、ETF與基金管理費、產險保費及承保利益為主，並透過交叉銷售、數位金融平台與海外據點提高客戶黏著度。國泰人壽是台灣壽險龍頭之一，產品含壽險、健康險、傷害險、年金、投資型保單與團體險；國泰世華銀行提供企業金融、消費金融、房貸、信用卡、外匯、信託、財富管理、跨境金融與現金管理；國泰產險經營車險、火險、水險、工程險、健康險、傷害險及其他商業險；國泰證券以台股經紀、複委託、承銷、自營與金融商品為主；國泰投信發展共同基金、ETF、全委與法人資產管理。可查證營收／產品結構方面，MoneyDJ彙整公司法說資料指出：2024年國泰人壽保險產品結構約為人壽保險54%、健康險23%、投資型保險19%、傷害險4%；國泰世華銀行2024年營收比重約為消金55%、企金16%、財富管理16%、投資與其他13%；國泰產險2024年產品保費收入約車險55%、火工險24%、意外險10%、傷健險8%、水險4%；國泰證券2024年營收比重約經紀85%、自營12%、承銷3%。主要客戶包括台灣個人保戶、存款戶、信用卡與財富管理客戶、中小企業、大型企業、跨境台商、特約商店、機構法人、基金與ETF投資人。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以「壽險新制轉型、銀行穩健成長、資產管理第三支柱、數位與AI、亞太布局、永續金融」為主軸。成長動能包括：1. 壽險業務受台灣超高齡社會、健康保障、退休理財與外幣保單需求推動，國泰人壽持續主推保障型、長年繳、高資本效率商品，並厚實CSM；2026年正式接軌IFRS 17與新清償能力制度後，資產負債管理、資本配置、CSM釋放將成為評價重點。2. 銀行端受惠存放款穩健成長、財富管理、信用卡、企業金融、外幣放款、跨境台商與東協據點，國泰世華2026年第一季放款年成長10%、存款年成長17%、中小企業放款年成長9%、外幣放款年成長21%，顯示核心銀行業務仍具動能。3. 國泰投信與資產管理是集團明確強化的第三支柱，2026年第一季資產管理總規模達新臺幣2.8兆元、全委資產管理規模1.3兆元，並持續發展ETF、主動式ETF、法人全委與退休理財。4. 數位金融與AI是中長期效率與客戶經營重點，集團已推動生成式AI技術框架GAIA、雲端治理、CUBE數位生態、國泰投信App、銀行核心現代化等專案。5. 海外布局方面，銀行、人壽與產險在大中華與東協市場持續在地化經營，越南、大陸、柬埔寨、新加坡、香港等據點可望支持跨境金融與區域銀行策略。6. 永續金融、綠色金融、氣候風險管理與RE100目標有助於企業金融、投資、保險與品牌差異化。主要風險包括：利率反轉與殖利率曲線變化造成壽險利差、淨值與避險成本波動；新台幣匯率波動與外匯價格變動準備金提列影響獲利與股利；IFRS 17、ICS 2.0與資本監理提高資本需求；台股與全球股債市波動影響投資收益與FVOCI評價；房市管制與信用循環影響銀行放款與資產品質；地緣政治、貿易戰、關稅與中國經濟放緩影響企業金融及海外布局；產險面臨天災、氣候風險、商業險損率與再保成本；金融科技、數位保險與資安風險提高競爭與合規成本。2027至2028年的具體財務數字公司未公開，以上為依官方年報、法說會與產業趨勢所作的研究推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 保戶、存款戶與資本提供者 金融業非製造業供應鏈；資金來源包括保險保費、銀行存款、股東權益、債務資本與資本市場資金，並非單一上市櫃供應商。
  • 再保險公司與金融市場交易對手 產險與壽險業務需使用再保險及金融市場避險／投資交易對手；多數為國際再保險公司、銀行或未揭露交易對手，非台股掛牌公司或未逐一揭露。
  • 資訊系統、雲端、資安與金融科技供應商 支援銀行核心現代化、AI、App、雲端治理、資安與數位平台；供應商名單未完整公開，可能包含國內外上市、未上市與外商企業。
  • 基金、ETF與金融商品通路合作夥伴 投信、財富管理、證券與保險銷售依賴銀行、券商、保經代與異業通路；個別合作夥伴未完整公開。
Downstream
  • 個人金融與保險客戶 包含壽險保戶、產險保戶、存款戶、房貸戶、信用卡客戶、財富管理客戶與數位平台用戶；非公司實體。
  • 企業金融與跨境台商客戶 國泰世華銀行提供企業放款、貿易融資、現金管理、外匯、專案融資與綠色金融；客戶分散且多數未公開。
  • 商戶與支付生態合作對象 信用卡收單、CUBE權益與支付業務連結特約商店、電商、旅遊、交通與生活消費場景；個別商戶未完整公開。
  • 機構法人、基金與ETF投資人 國泰投信與國泰證券服務法人、退休理財、全委代操、ETF與共同基金投資人；客戶包含法人與自然人，未逐一揭露。

Competitors

Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.