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2887

台新新光金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 台新新光金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 67Quality 87Growth 98Momentum 83Chips 11

Is 台新新光金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~97% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 30th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 85th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -5.0% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 317.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.77
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 摩根大通 holds 196,093 lots
  • sellers have 113,855 lots left, ~472 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +43% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 摩根大通 has accumulated 196,093 lots since the start (sold 8%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 群益金鼎 peaked at 149,686 lots, has sold 46%, 81,469 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +1.63pp, mid holders -22, retail -1.54pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -185,512 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
摩根大通兆豐證券花旗環球玉山證券元富-城東港商麥格理
Distributing
群益金鼎美林富邦證券新加坡商瑞銀永豐金-匯立華南永昌-嘉義
Desks
own scale
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛凱基-台北新光-桃園
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 摩根大通 +196,093
    sold 8%· still adding
  • 兆豐證券 +126,467
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +107,047
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山證券 +106,830
    sold 0%
  • 元富-城東 +89,262
    sold 0%
  • 港商麥格理 +62,234
    sold 0%· still adding

Distributing

  • 群益金鼎 81,469 left
    sold 46%· paused recently
  • 美林 92,142 left
    sold 31%· ~35 sessions to clear
  • 富邦證券 70,422 left
    sold 26%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 53,302 left
    sold 41%· paused recently
  • 永豐金-匯立 14,296 left
    sold 29%· paused recently
  • 華南永昌-嘉義 9,061 left
    sold 27%· ~27 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 -206,580
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 美商高盛 -87,910
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -77,559
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 新光-桃園 -63,449
    unclassified
Still selling 113,855 lots ~472 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +241,826 absorbed / -37,291 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -99,250 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

44 historical occurrences (since 2009-07-03)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 65.1%, Sample 43, Median +1.1%, Excess +0.33%, Beat mkt rate 51.2%；60-day: Win 74.4%, Sample 43, Median +4.13%, Excess +1.6%, Beat mkt rate 60.5%；120-day: Win 58.5%, Sample 41, Median +4.02%, Excess +2.04%, Beat mkt rate 53.7%

120 days after: historical avg +5.36%

20-day +1.91%
60-day +4.27%
120-day +5.36%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
65.1%
74.4%
58.5%
Sample
43
43
41
Median
+1.1%
+4.13%
+4.02%
Excess
+0.33%
+1.6%
+2.04%
Beat mkt rate
51.2%
60.5%
53.7%

Over 41 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.36%, beat the market by 2.04 pts; win rate 58.5%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 317.18%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

83 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 52.6%, Sample 78, Median +0.49%, Excess +0.27%, Beat mkt rate 47.4%；60-day: Win 55.1%, Sample 78, Median +2.43%, Excess +1.14%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；120-day: Win 56%, Sample 75, Median +4.11%, Excess +2.95%, Beat mkt rate 54.7%

120 days after: historical avg +10.19%

20-day +1.4%
60-day +5.5%
120-day +10.19%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
52.6%
55.1%
56%
Sample
78
78
75
Median
+0.49%
+2.43%
+4.11%
Excess
+0.27%
+1.14%
+2.95%
Beat mkt rate
47.4%
46.2%
54.7%

Over 75 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.19%, beat the market by 2.95 pts; win rate 56%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 3Insufficient data
40-60 284+26.7% +24.6% 75.4% +1.9%
60-80 1099+12.9% +8.5% 70.9% -5.1%
80-100 You are here1611+10% +10.5% 72.9% -4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 15.98, at the 85.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(0d)
+16%
Win rate 78.9% Excess +4.8%
308d
Now
+5.3%
Win rate 65.7% Excess -2.1%
1798d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(1d)
+12%
Win rate 77.5% Excess -3.3%
280d
+6.1%
Win rate 66.1% Excess -1.3%
729d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 1798 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 5.3%, win rate 65.7%, lagged the market by 2.1%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

70 times historically; 60-day forward avg +3.94%, win rate 68.1%, beating the market by -0.63 pts on average.

What does 台新新光金 do? Company profile

金控業 上市（台灣證券交易所）

Overview

2887 為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，證券名稱為台新新光金。公司前身台新金融控股股份有限公司成立與上市日期均為 2002/02/18；台新金控與新光金控於 2025/07/24 合併，台新金控為存續公司並更名為台新新光金融控股股份有限公司，新光金控為消滅公司。總部位於台北市大安區仁愛路四段118號。董事長為吳東亮，總經理為林維俊。公開資訊彙整顯示實收資本額約新台幣 2,935.75 億元、已發行普通股約 248.66 億股，另有特別股；合併後總資產於 2025 年底約新台幣 8.776 兆元，2026 年第一季約新台幣 9.065 兆元，為台灣大型金控之一。2024 年台新金控及轄下子公司全體正職員工為 11,634 人、含非正職及派遣合計 12,462 人；合併新光金後員工規模已顯著擴大，2026 年旺年會與徵才新聞顯示集團人員規模逾萬人且仍大規模招募，但截至本研究日未在可查官方頁面確認合併後精確全體員工數。主要股東部分，公開搜尋可確認董監持股比例約 2.23%，大股東資訊含新光三越百貨等，但合併後完整前十大股東仍應以 2025 年報或公開資訊觀測站最新股東名冊為準。

Business

台新新光金控為金融控股公司，核心商業模式是透過銀行、壽險、證券、投信、投顧、創投、資產管理、租賃等子公司提供金融服務，收入來源包括銀行淨利息收入、財富管理與信用卡等手續費、壽險保費與投資收益、證券經紀/承銷/自營收益、資產管理與投信投顧費用。合併後金融版圖橫跨銀行、保險、證券三大業務，並於兩年內推進主要子公司整併：台新投信與新光投信已於 2025/11/24 合併，台新人壽與新光人壽於 2026/01/01 合併，台新證券與元富證券於 2026/04/06 合併，台新銀行與新光銀行規劃於 2026 年底前完成合併。2025 年金控稅後淨利 374 億元，較 2024 年成長 86%，EPS 1.91 元；台新銀行稅後淨利 214 億元、年增 15.6%，淨利息收入 339 億元、淨手續費收入 171 億元，年底總放款 1.83 兆元、總存款 2.49 兆元；壽險子公司合計獲利 77 億元，新光人壽新契約 CSM 年增 69%；證券方面台新證券全年稅後淨利 24 億元，合併元富後經紀業務市占率為市場第四大。2026 年第一季金控稅後淨利 211 億元、EPS 0.82 元；台新銀行總放款約 1.989 兆元，產品組合約企業貸款 47.9%、購屋貸款 21.2%、房屋加值型貸款 17.9%、消金無擔 6.9%、其他 6.1%；法金授信產業分布中製造業 28.1%、不動產與營造 19.8%、零售批發 9.0%、運輸與通訊 6.0%、金融與投資 23.6%、其他 13.6%。主要客戶包含個人存款、房貸、信貸、信用卡與財富管理客戶，企業授信與現金管理客戶，高資產與私人銀行客群，保戶與投資型保單客戶，以及證券經紀、承銷、投信基金與資產管理客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年主軸為合併整合、通路擴大、壽險資本改善、銀行與財富管理成長、證券市占率提升、AI 與數位金融深化。成長動能包括：一、台新與新光合併後總資產躍升至 8 至 9 兆元級，跨銀行、壽險、證券與投信的客戶交叉銷售空間擴大；二、銀行端受惠於企業放款、外幣放款、財富管理與信用卡手續費成長，且資產品質目前維持良好，2026 年第一季台新銀行逾放比約 0.14%、覆蓋率約 907%；三、壽險端新光人壽在 IFRS 17/TW-ICS 新制下，重點將放在保障型與外幣保單、CSM 累積、資產負債匹配與避險成本控制，2026 年第一季 FYP 年增 78%、外幣保單占 FYP 73.3%，短期對獲利貢獻顯著；四、證券端合併元富後通路與市占率提升，經紀、財富管理、承銷與自營操作均有規模經濟；五、投信、投顧、資產管理與私人銀行可受惠台灣推動亞洲資產管理中心、高資產客群增加與跨境配置需求。主要風險與挑戰包括：合併整合進度、IT/營運/文化整合成本與執行風險；新光人壽帳上商譽、保險負債評價、利率與匯率波動、避險成本及資本適足壓力；銀行端利率下行可能壓縮利差，房市政策與景氣循環可能影響放款成長與信用成本；證券與財富管理收益受股債市場波動影響；金融監理、資安、防詐、個資與 ESG 要求提高營運成本。2027 至 2028 年若銀行整併如期完成，主要觀察點為成本收入比改善、重複分行與後勤系統整合效益、壽險 CSM 與資本比率穩定度、以及股利政策能否與資本需求取得平衡。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶、保戶與資本市場資金提供者 金融業無傳統製造供應鏈；銀行存款、保險保費、金融債、同業拆借及股東資本為主要資金來源，非單一上市櫃公司。
  • Visa、Mastercard、JCB 等國際卡組織 信用卡發卡、收單與支付清算網路供應商；多為海外機構或非台股掛牌。
  • 資訊系統、雲端、資安與金融科技供應商 提供核心銀行、保險、證券交易、資料分析、AI、防詐與資安服務；具體供應商未在本研究中完整確認，因此不填台股代號。
Downstream
  • 個人金融與財富管理客戶 存款、房貸、信貸、信用卡、基金、保險、私人銀行與高資產客群，非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 法人金融與企業授信客戶 涵蓋製造業、不動產與營造、零售批發、運輸通訊、金融投資等產業；台新銀行 2026 年第一季法金授信以製造業與金融投資比重較高，但未揭露主要客戶名單。
  • 證券與資本市場客戶 包含證券經紀客戶、承銷發行公司、投信基金投資人與機構法人；個別客戶未公開列示。

Competitors

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.