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2891

中信金 Finance & Insurance As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 中信金 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 56Quality 88Growth 98Momentum 81Chips 77

Is 中信金 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~97% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 35th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 91th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 5.0% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 341.3%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.53
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 香港上海匯豐 holds 94,971 lots
  • sellers have 14,751 lots left, ~58 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +39% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 香港上海匯豐 has accumulated 94,971 lots since the start (sold 5%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 永豐金證券 peaked at 37,646 lots, has sold 78%, 8,413 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.55pp, mid holders +24, retail -0.59pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -253,742 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
香港上海匯豐港商麥格理花旗環球元大證券永豐金-匯立美林
Distributing
永豐金證券第一金-中山大和國泰(牛牛牛)亞證券元富法銀巴黎
Desks
own scale
美商高盛凱基-台北富邦證券新加坡商瑞銀
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 香港上海匯豐 +94,971
    sold 5%
  • 港商麥格理 +77,703
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 花旗環球 +73,690
    sold 22%
  • 元大證券 +68,315
    sold 7%
  • 永豐金-匯立 +46,396
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +37,282
    sold 4%· still adding

Distributing

  • 永豐金證券 8,413 left
    sold 78%· paused recently
  • 第一金-中山 6,623 left
    sold 55%· ~21 sessions to clear
  • 大和國泰 8,128 left
    sold 37%· ~58 sessions to clear
  • (牛牛牛)亞證券 1,968 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 元富 827 left
    sold 75%· paused recently
  • 法銀巴黎 1,479 left
    sold 40%· paused recently

Desks

  • 美商高盛 -108,810
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 凱基-台北 -97,108
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 富邦證券 -64,146
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -23,069
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 14,751 lots ~58 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +65,252 absorbed / -4,518 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -156,157 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

44 historical occurrences (since 2008-05-02)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 47.7%, Sample 44, Median -0.06%, Excess +0.39%, Beat mkt rate 52.3%；60-day: Win 69%, Sample 42, Median +3.82%, Excess +1.69%, Beat mkt rate 50%；120-day: Win 69%, Sample 42, Median +8.97%, Excess +0.59%, Beat mkt rate 54.8%

120 days after: historical avg +5.18%

20-day +0.76%
60-day +3.35%
120-day +5.18%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.7%
69%
69%
Sample
44
42
42
Median
-0.06%
+3.82%
+8.97%
Excess
+0.39%
+1.69%
+0.59%
Beat mkt rate
52.3%
50%
54.8%

Over 42 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.18%, beat the market by 0.59 pts; win rate 69%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 341.32%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

110 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61%, Sample 105, Median +0.8%, Excess +0.19%, Beat mkt rate 47.6%；60-day: Win 65.7%, Sample 105, Median +4.48%, Excess +0.68%, Beat mkt rate 51.4%；120-day: Win 68.9%, Sample 103, Median +9.21%, Excess +1.86%, Beat mkt rate 55.3%

120 days after: historical avg +7.98%

20-day +1.18%
60-day +4.11%
120-day +7.98%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61%
65.7%
68.9%
Sample
105
105
103
Median
+0.8%
+4.48%
+9.21%
Excess
+0.19%
+0.68%
+1.86%
Beat mkt rate
47.6%
51.4%
55.3%

Over 103 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 7.98%, beat the market by 1.86 pts; win rate 68.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 854+11.3% +14.8% 70.7% -3.3%
20-40 741+15.2% +17.5% 79.8% -2.2%
40-60 703+12.6% +12.5% 80.9% +2.7%
60-80 533+19.9% +19.1% 80.9% -1.5%
80-100 You are here185+49.3% +51.5% 100% +14.8%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 17.11, at the 91.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+7.2%
Win rate 70.6% Excess +1.2%
854d
+5.4%
Win rate 71.6% Excess +0.5%
876d
Now
+15.1%
Win rate 90.7% Excess -0.3%
517d
60-day momentum down
+7.3%
Win rate 68.5% Excess -3.9%
518d
+8.1%
Win rate 79.3% Excess +2.3%
304d
+24.4%
Win rate 100% Excess +0.1%
67d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 517 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 15.1%, win rate 90.7%, lagged the market by 0.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

71 times historically; 60-day forward avg +4.36%, win rate 68.6%, beating the market by +0.51 pts on average.

What does 中信金 do? Company profile

金融保險業／金融控股公司 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

2891 對應中國信託金融控股股份有限公司，簡稱中信金，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，ISIN 為 TW0002891009。公司成立與上市日期均為 2002-05-17，總部位於臺北市南港區經貿二路168號27樓、29樓。董事長為顏文隆，總經理兼發言人為高麗雪；公開資料顯示實收資本額約新台幣2017.78億元，已發行普通股約196.78億股。中信金為金融控股公司，主要子公司包含中國信託商業銀行、台灣人壽、中國信託綜合證券、中國信託投信、中國信託創投、中國信託資產管理、中信資融、中信保全與台灣彩券等。集團員工規模依台灣人壽公開介紹約31,200人。2026-04-14基準日主要股東依年報／公司股權資料與媒體轉載包括群益台灣精選高息ETF約5.29%、國泰永續高股息ETF約4.23%、元大高股息ETF約2.39%、宜高投資約2.38%、新制勞退基金約2.17%、中信金員工福利儲蓄信託基金約2.16%、中信銀行員工持股信託專戶約1.94%、新加坡政府投資公司GIC約1.77%、元大台灣50 ETF約1.72%、台灣銀行約1.68%；董事法人則包括唯福投資、宜詮投資、仲遠投資。

Business

中信金的商業模式是以金融控股公司持有並管理銀行、壽險、證券、投信、資產管理、創投、保全及彩券等子公司，透過資本配置、風險控管、交叉銷售與數位平台整合創造綜效。核心獲利引擎為中國信託銀行與台灣人壽：銀行業務涵蓋個人金融、信用卡、財富管理、法人金融、授信、存放款、外匯、財務操作、海外分子行與跨境金融；壽險業務涵蓋保障型、外幣、投資型、健康促進與高齡相關保險商品，以及資產負債管理與投資收益；證券與投信提供經紀、承銷、自營、資產管理與基金商品。依2025年度合併財報公告，全年利息淨收益為新台幣1480.94億元、淨收益為2448.95億元，利息淨收益約占淨收益60.5%；全年稅後歸屬母公司淨利806.19億元、EPS 4.08元，期末總資產約9.33兆元。2025年主要獲利來源為銀行核心業務，公開法說與股東會資料指出中國信託銀行2025年稅後淨利約573億元、年增16%，台灣人壽與證券子公司亦為重要貢獻。主要客戶為台灣個人金融與信用卡客戶、財富管理與高資產客戶、中小企業、跨國企業、台商、壽險保戶、投資人與彩券通路／消費者；終端應用為存放款、支付、信用卡、財管、保險保障、退休與健康照護、企業授信、聯貸、外匯、跨境資金管理、證券交易與資產管理。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以銀行與保險雙引擎、海外布局、財富管理、價值型保單、數位金融與證券版圖擴張為主軸。2025年公司年報揭露四大營業計畫：第一，中信銀行提升核心業務競爭力，擴大個人客戶基盤、財富管理、高資產客製化理財與小型企業金融，並透過數位決策平台提升申貸效率；海外方面利用既有分子行及系統平台，服務全球供應鏈移轉下的企業跨境金融需求，並精進泰國 LHFG 與日本東京之星銀行等海外業務。第二，台灣人壽因應 IFRS 17 與新清償能力標準，優化資產負債管理，擴大保障型、外幣與投資型等價值型商品，並發展醫療科技、健康促進、高齡與康養服務，追求保費收入、死差益與長期穩定收益。第三，投資事業與證券事業擴大資產管理規模、客戶基盤與子公司合作綜效，並在潛力市場評估新據點或策略合作；2026股東會中總經理指出中信證券經紀市占率已由約1%提升至1.5%，未來持續尋求合適併購並強化內生成長。第四，數位轉型以 Digital End-to-End 與 Banking Everywhere 為主軸，強化數據分析、客戶流程、金融科技與資安。2026年第一季與前五月資料顯示獲利動能仍強，2026年1至5月稅後純益約348億元、EPS 1.78元，年增約41%；中信銀海外獲利占比已約35%至36%，並規劃洛杉磯、亞利桑那鳳凰城、德州休士頓、日本福岡、越南與印尼等據點擴張，以承接台商與高科技供應鏈外移需求。2027至2028年因官方未提供量化預測，本研究僅能推估：若利率與信用循環溫和、海外據點拓展順利、財管與高資產客群成長、台壽CSM與價值型保單累積穩健，獲利結構可望更分散；但若新台幣大幅升值、股債匯市波動、保險資本新制壓力、海外授信風險、房市與中小企業信用風險、地緣政治與關稅衝擊、海外監理成本升高，將壓抑淨利差、投資收益、壽險淨值與資本適足率。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 存款戶與債券投資人 銀行資金來源，包含活期與定期存款、金融債、同業資金與其他市場融資；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 保戶與保費來源 台灣人壽保費收入與保險準備金形成壽險投資與保障業務資金池；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 資本市場與金融基礎設施 證券交易、清算交割、債券與外匯市場提供投資、避險與流動性來源；包含交易所、集保結算、同業市場與國際金融市場，非單一營運供應商。
  • 資訊科技、雲端、資安與金融科技供應商 支援銀行、壽險、證券APP、數位決策、資料分析、資安與核心系統；公開資料未完整揭露特定供應商名單。
Downstream
  • 個人金融、信用卡與財富管理客戶 中信銀行主要零售客群，使用存放款、支付、信用卡、信託、基金、保險代理與高資產理財服務；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 法人金融、中小企業與跨國台商 使用授信、聯貸、外匯、現金管理、貿易融資、跨境金融與供應鏈移轉相關金融服務；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 壽險保戶與高齡／健康照護客群 台灣人壽保障型、外幣、投資型、醫療、健康促進與高齡相關商品之終端客戶；非單一上市櫃公司。
  • 證券投資人與資產管理客戶 中國信託證券與投信服務股票交易、承銷、基金、ETF與資產管理需求；非單一上市櫃公司。

Competitors

  • 富邦金 2881 大型金控同業，銀行、壽險、證券與投信布局完整，為金融保險類股主要競爭者。
  • 國泰金 2882 大型金控同業，壽險與銀行規模大，與中信金在壽險、銀行、財管與資產管理競爭。
  • 元大金 2885 金控同業，證券與投信優勢明顯，與中信金在證券經紀、財富管理與資產管理競爭。
  • 兆豐金 2886 公股金控，外匯、法人金融與銀行業務具規模，與中信銀在企金、外匯與跨境金融競爭。
  • 台新新光金 2887 2026年金融保險類股成分中列為台新新光金，銀行、壽險與消金業務為中信金主要同業。
  • 玉山金 2884 民營金控同業，財富管理、信用卡、數位金融與中小企業金融為競爭領域。
  • 永豐金 2890 民營金控同業，銀行、證券、財管與法人金融業務與中信金競爭。
  • 第一金 2892 公股金控，銀行、企金與財管業務為主要競爭範圍。
  • 華南金 2880 公股金控，銀行與法人金融業務為主要競爭範圍。
  • 凱基金 2883 金控同業，證券、銀行、壽險與投資業務與中信金在多元金融服務上競爭。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.