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3313

斐成 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 斐成 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 56Quality 18Growth 100Momentum 15Chips 21

Is 斐成 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 2th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.7%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 22th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 30th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.4% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 12749.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.85
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 兆豐-三民 holds 2,115 lots
  • sellers have 140 lots left, ~54 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -20% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 兆豐-三民 has accumulated 2,115 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 台新-台南 peaked at 407 lots, has sold 62%, 153 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +2.02pp, mid holders -2, retail -1.19pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -357 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
兆豐-三民富邦-七賢第一金-高雄中國信託-永康元大-莒光福邦證券
Distributing
台新-台南國泰-敦南新光群益金鼎-北高雄(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐元大-博愛
Desks
own scale
凱基-台北元大-發財台中銀-豐原華南永昌-南京
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 兆豐-三民 +2,115
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-七賢 +1,114
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 第一金-高雄 +340
    sold 1%
  • 中國信託-永康 +219
    sold 2%
  • 元大-莒光 +141
    sold 5%· still adding
  • 福邦證券 +130
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 台新-台南 153 left
    sold 62%· paused recently
  • 國泰-敦南 20 left
    sold 84%· ~20 sessions to clear
  • 新光 65 left
    sold 31%· ~54 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-北高雄 62 left
    sold 33%· paused recently
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 44 left
    sold 51%· paused recently
  • 元大-博愛 27 left
    sold 57%· paused recently

Desks

  • 凱基-台北 -336
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 元大-發財 -300
    unclassified
  • 台中銀-豐原 -296
    unclassified
  • 華南永昌-南京 -218
    unclassified
Still selling 140 lots ~54 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +923 absorbed / -45 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -4 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 12749.18%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

48 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 54.1%, Sample 37, Median +1.84%, Excess +2.79%, Beat mkt rate 48.6%；60-day: Win 68.6%, Sample 35, Median +6.13%, Excess +2.44%, Beat mkt rate 51.4%；120-day: Win 60.6%, Sample 33, Median +3.45%, Excess +4.03%, Beat mkt rate 51.5%

120 days after: historical avg +13.17%

20-day +4.75%
60-day +7.55%
120-day +13.17%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
54.1%
68.6%
60.6%
Sample
37
35
33
Median
+1.84%
+6.13%
+3.45%
Excess
+2.79%
+2.44%
+4.03%
Beat mkt rate
48.6%
51.4%
51.5%

Over 33 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 13.17%, beat the market by 4.03 pts; win rate 60.6%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 You are here0Insufficient data
40-60 2Insufficient data
60-80 88+58% +53% 100% +1.7%
80-100 112+12.8% +35.3% 56.2% -33.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 12.96, at the 30.3th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-28.7%
Win rate 0% Excess -33%
47d
Insufficient data
(9d)
+8.9%
Win rate 31.9% Excess -7.1%
94d
60-day momentum down
Now
-21.2%
Win rate 0% Excess -19.4%
72d
+79.6%
Win rate 97.4% Excess +34.5%
39d
+91.2%
Win rate 88.5% Excess +33%
61d

Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 72 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 21.2%, win rate 0%, lagged the market by 19.4%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

18 times historically; 60-day forward avg +5.52%, win rate 33.3%, beating the market by +2.51 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

29 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.2%, win rate 40.7%, beating the market by -4.25 pts on average.

What does 斐成 do? Company profile

建材營造業／其他業；實質營運以不動產投資開發、興建、營造工程與投資性不動產租金為主 上櫃

Overview

3313 對應證券為上櫃普通股「斐成」，公司全名為斐成開發科技股份有限公司。公司成立於1993年12月2日，原名斐成企業股份有限公司，2023年更名為斐成開發科技股份有限公司並轉型為建設開發公司。總部位於台南市安平區永華路二段248號11樓之2，統一編號84341994，電話06-299-5586。上櫃日期為2006年5月29日；官網及櫃買/股市資料顯示市場別為上櫃。董事長為張祐銘，總經理為李東洪，發言人為韓元翔。2026年法說會揭露實收資本額約新台幣22.11億元；Goodinfo與年報資料顯示發行股數約221,133,831股。員工規模依114年年報：2025年底24人、2026年3月31日21人。主要股東依114年年報截至2026年3月31日：張祐銘持股40,890,000股、18.49%；永捷創新科技股份有限公司持股28,396,121股、12.84%；上曜建設開發股份有限公司持股22,000,000股、9.95%；和瑞投資10,678,000股、4.83%；麒富投資10,000,000股、4.52%；群益金鼎證券受託保管長雄證券投資專戶9,550,000股、4.32%；中清科技8,379,042股、3.79%。年報明載斐成係永捷創新科技股份有限公司之母公司控制鏈下公司，最終母公司為上曜建設開發股份有限公司。

Business

斐成目前不是電子零組件主業公司，而是轉型中的建設開發與營造公司。114年年報揭露主要營業項目為不動產投資開發及興建，主要產品營業比重為營造工程10,818千元、占94.98%，投資性不動產租金收入572千元、占5.02%，合併營業收入淨額11,390千元。產品項目包括建材買賣與營造工程承攬；公司官網登載營業項目包含住宅及大樓開發租售業、投資興建公共建設業、新市鎮新社區開發業、不動產買賣業、不動產租賃業、建材批發與零售、室內裝潢等。商業模式主要為取得或整合土地與危老改建案，委託或承攬工程、開發集合住宅，於工程進度或完工交屋時認列營收；同時有少量投資性不動產租金。2026年法說會列示建案包括台南中西區星鑽段「琉星」、台南北區大銃段「城之樹」、台南仁德區白崙段「城之學」、台南中西區府前段「中正王冠」。2026年法說資料顯示「琉星」規劃40戶、已售37戶、停車位11位；「城之樹」規劃透天4戶已完售、集合住宅94戶已售63戶、停車位93位；「城之學」規劃44戶、停車位32位；「中正王冠」規劃384戶、停車位389位。114年年報主要銷貨客戶顯示永捷創新於2025年占營收94.98%，2026年第1季占100%，屬關係人；另投資性不動產租金歸入其他客戶。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025年公司營收仍偏低且波動，114年合併營收11,390千元，年減約69.02%，營業毛利率為負，稅後淨損73,766千元，每股虧損0.35元；主要原因包含建材出售減少、合併子公司營造收入減少及工程進度影響。2026年前5月累計營收13,271千元、年增約1540.42%，但基期很低，不能直接解讀為穩定高成長。中期動能來自台南危老改建與市區推案：年報載「琉星」於112年第3季開工，預計115年第2季完工交屋，估計可挹注營收420,000千元、毛利114,559千元、營業利益85,159千元；「城之樹」於114年第1季開工，預計116年第4季完工交屋，估計可挹注營收1,620,000千元、毛利266,619千元、營業利益153,219千元。2026法說會另揭露「城之學」辦理開工程序，「中正王冠」已完成交評、結構外審、開空預審及都審變更設計等前置作業，預計申請變更設計建造執照。2027至2028展望取決於琉星交屋入帳、城之樹完工交屋、城之學與中正王冠開工/銷售/取得執照進度，以及上曜集團品牌與資金、關係企業工程承攬的支援。風險包括：台南房市景氣與央行信用管制、房貸成數與利率變動、營建成本與工期延宕、建照變更與都審程序、銷售去化、營收過度集中於關係人、規模小導致費用率與損益波動大、累積虧損與需持續籌資支應土地及工程款。2028以後若中正王冠等大型案順利推進，營收規模可能擴大；但目前未查得公司對2028明確量化目標，屬推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 上裕營造有限公司 年報列為2025年與2026年第1季主要進貨供應商之一且為其他關係人；主要供應營造工程相關服務，未查得台股上市櫃代號。
  • 匿名建材與工程供應商A、D、E、F等 年報因契約約定以代號揭露，屬建材、工程或相關營建服務供應商；未揭露實名，無法填入股票代號。
  • 建築師、代書、水電工程、金融機構、不動產服務業者 年報產業說明提及房屋建築業牽涉營造廠、建材、代書、水電工程、建築師、金融機構及不動產服務等上游/周邊服務；未列個別公司名稱。
Downstream
  • 永捷創新科技股份有限公司 4714 關係人及主要銷貨客戶；114年年報顯示2025年銷貨10,818千元、占合併銷貨淨額94.98%，2026年第1季銷貨4,957千元、占100%。
  • 上曜建設開發股份有限公司 1316 最終母公司與關係企業；年報揭露斐成與上曜已簽約承攬合約價款3,105,000千元，屬下游客戶/開發案關係人。
  • 住宅自住與投資買方 琉星、城之樹、城之學、中正王冠等集合住宅最終銷售對象，包含一般大眾、消費者及公司行號；非特定上市櫃公司。
  • 租賃客戶 投資性不動產租金收入來源；年報未揭露個別租戶名稱。

Competitors

Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.