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3481

群創 Optoelectronics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 群創 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 31Quality 35Growth 51Momentum 98Chips 20

Is 群創 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 34th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.8%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 98th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 98th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.5% of volume (net sell).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.41
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 凱基-松山 holds 46,123 lots
  • sellers have 92,813 lots left, ~111 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +103% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-松山 has accumulated 46,123 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 美商高盛 peaked at 155,641 lots, has sold 70%, 47,048 left, ~18 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.87pp, mid holders -182, retail +2.01pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -25,299 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-松山永豐金證券國泰證券凱基-站前台新-西松元大-北投
Distributing
美商高盛凱基-台北富邦證券美林港商野村摩根大通
Desks
own scale
大和國泰花旗環球元大證券兆豐-城中
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-松山 +46,123
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 永豐金證券 +43,120
    sold 7%
  • 國泰證券 +30,865
    sold 24%
  • 凱基-站前 +24,967
    sold 3%
  • 台新-西松 +14,388
    sold 18%
  • 元大-北投 +13,224
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 美商高盛 47,048 left
    sold 70%· ~18 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 31,246 left
    sold 79%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 77,552 left
    sold 44%· paused recently
  • 美林 58,760 left
    sold 42%· paused recently
  • 港商野村 10,978 left
    sold 85%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 13,723 left
    sold 79%· paused recently

Desks

  • 大和國泰 -128,197
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 花旗環球 -62,226
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -59,913
    unclassified
  • 兆豐-城中 -22,873
    unclassified
Still selling 92,813 lots ~111 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +78,106 absorbed / -83,320 sold sellers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -13,307 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

21 historical occurrences (since 2009-10-13)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 47.6%, Sample 21, Median -1.55%, Excess +3.74%, Beat mkt rate 47.6%；60-day: Win 60%, Sample 20, Median +5.77%, Excess +3.83%, Beat mkt rate 55%；120-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 18, Median -0.12%, Excess +1.29%, Beat mkt rate 38.9%

120 days after: historical avg +8.96%

20-day +5.05%
60-day +9.21%
120-day +8.96%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.6%
60%
44.4%
Sample
21
20
18
Median
-1.55%
+5.77%
-0.12%
Excess
+3.74%
+3.83%
+1.29%
Beat mkt rate
47.6%
55%
38.9%

Over 18 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 8.96%, beat the market by 1.29 pts; win rate 44.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 443-2.3% -14% 34.3% -33.2%
20-40 226+29.6% -12.8% 45.1% -2.7%
40-60 282+74.1% +78.5% 77.3% -3.5%
60-80 41+96.3% +94.7% 100% +14.9%
80-100 You are here103+12.8% -9.7% 40.8% -20.4%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 532.73, at the 98.0th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-4.5%
Win rate 23.7% Excess -9.9%
245d
+52.9%
Win rate 65.5% Excess +10.2%
194d
Now
+3.7%
Win rate 35.1% Excess -16.2%
97d
60-day momentum down
+2.4%
Win rate 34% Excess -7.3%
409d
+60.3%
Win rate 72.9% Excess +16.2%
247d
Insufficient data
(23d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 97 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 3.7%, win rate 35.1%, lagged the market by 16.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

71 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.3%, win rate 44.4%, beating the market by -3.73 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

63 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.18%, win rate 48.4%, beating the market by -0.45 pts on average.

What does 群創 do? Company profile

光電業；TFT-LCD、觸控顯示、車用顯示、先進封裝相關 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

3481 對應證券為台灣證券交易所上市普通股「群創」，公司全名群創光電股份有限公司，英文名 Innolux Corporation。公司成立於2003年1月14日，2006年10月24日掛牌上市，2010年與奇美電子、統寶光電合併，後續更名為群創光電。總部/公司地址為新竹科學園區苗栗縣竹南鎮科學路160號。公開基本資料顯示董事長為洪進揚、總經理為楊弘文，實收資本額約新台幣798.92億元，已發行普通股約79.89億股。公司招募與公開資料指出全球員工約37,000人，台灣有多座TFT-LCD廠，主要TFT廠區位於竹南、台南，海外模組廠包含中國大陸寧波、佛山、上海等地。公司擁有3.5G、4G、4.5G、5G、6G、7.5G、8.5G至8.6G世代產線，定位為涵蓋大中小尺寸LCD面板與觸控面板的一條龍顯示器提供者。主要股東部分，公開網頁可確認公司股權高度分散、董監事持股比率低；第三方資料顯示董監持股約0.06%，外資法人持股約200萬張等級，但完整前十大股東與最新持股比例未能在本次網路查核中由官方網頁完整確認。

Business

群創核心業務由傳統顯示器領域與非顯示器/轉型業務組成。顯示器產品包含電視用面板、桌上型監視器面板、筆記型電腦面板、中小尺寸面板、觸控模組、醫療用顯示、工控/航海/航太等利基顯示，以及車用顯示面板。技術涵蓋TFT-LCD、觸控整合、IGZO、LTPS、AM miniLED、AM microLED、裸眼3D、高亮度/低功耗顯示、戶外防水觸控等。2025年第4季公司揭露營收應用別為電視27%、車用產品33%、可攜式電腦17%、手機及商用產品19%、桌上型螢幕4%；顯示器領域群與非顯示器領域群營收占比分別為65%與35%，其中顯示器領域群再分為消費性顯示器50%、商用顯示器15%。2025全年合併營收約新台幣2,267億元，年增約4.73%，基本每股盈餘0.03元。商業模式上，群創以面板與模組製造、客製化顯示解決方案、車用智慧座艙顯示與系統整合、醫療/工控等高規格利基顯示，以及面板級扇出型封裝FOPLP、RDL基板、玻璃核心基板等先進封裝服務作為轉型方向。主要終端應用包含電視、筆電、監視器、智慧型手機與商用裝置、車用CID/儀表/座艙顯示、醫療影像、工業電腦、航海、航太、公共服務終端、充電樁與AI PC/AI晶片封裝相關應用。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年的核心展望在於「More than Panel」轉型：降低傳統大尺寸面板景氣循環曝險，提升車用、商用/工控、醫療與先進封裝等高附加價值業務占比。短期至2026年，公司已揭露2026年第1季展望為非顯示器領域群季增高二十位數百分比、商用顯示器季增低個位數、消費性顯示器季減低個位數；董事會亦核准2026年資本預算新台幣130億元，用於技術提升、效能改善與營運維持。中期成長動能包括：1. 車用智慧座艙與CarUX：子公司CarUX完成收購日本Pioneer後，若整合順利，可從單一車用顯示延伸至視覺、觸控、音訊與座艙體驗解決方案，提升對日系、歐美車廠與Tier 1供應鏈的觸及；2. FOPLP/面板級封裝：利用既有大面積玻璃/面板製程、自動化與潔淨室能力，發展Chip-first、RDL-first、TGV與玻璃核心基板等技術，受惠AI/HPC晶片封裝尺寸放大與降低成本需求，但量產良率、客戶認證、設備與材料成熟度仍是關鍵；3. 商用與利基顯示：工控、航海、航太、醫療、戶外顯示、充電樁與公共服務終端需求較小量多樣且認證門檻高，有機會改善毛利結構；4. 新顯示技術：miniLED、低功耗高亮度、裸眼3D、AI筆電觸控整合與智慧調光等可提升產品差異化。主要風險包含全球LCD產能與中國面板廠價格競爭、電視/IT面板報價循環、車用客戶拉貨波動與認證週期長、Pioneer整合與商譽/負債變化、FOPLP良率與客戶導入不確定、資產處分帶來的一次性損益不可持續、匯率與原物料價格波動，以及電力、水資源、地緣政治與供應鏈集中風險。2027至2028具體財務數字公司未公開，本段屬基於公司法說與產業趨勢的推估。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 瑞昱半導體 2379 台股上市IC設計公司；MoneyDJ列為群創LCD控制IC相關供應商之一。
  • 天鈺科技 4961 台股上市驅動IC公司；MoneyDJ列為群創LCD驅動IC相關供應商之一。
  • 聯詠科技 3034 台股上市驅動IC公司；MoneyDJ列為群創LCD驅動IC相關供應商之一。
  • 奇景光電 美國上市公司；MoneyDJ列為群創LCD驅動IC相關供應商之一。
  • 台達電子 2308 台股上市電源與電子零組件公司；MoneyDJ列為冷陰極燈管/電源相關供應商之一，惟冷陰極燈管為較早期LCD供應鏈項目。
  • 中強光電 5371 台股上櫃背光模組與光學元件公司；MoneyDJ列為背光模組供應商之一。
  • 瑞儀光電 6176 台股上市背光模組公司；MoneyDJ列為背光模組供應商之一。
  • 誠美材料 4960 台股上市偏光板材料公司，前身與奇美材相關；MoneyDJ列為偏光板供應商之一。
  • Corning 美國上市玻璃基板供應商；MoneyDJ列為玻璃基板供應商之一。
  • Nippon Electric Glass 日本上市玻璃基板供應商；MoneyDJ列為玻璃基板供應商之一。
  • 日東電工 日本上市偏光板/功能材料公司；MoneyDJ列為偏光板供應商之一。
  • 住友化學 日本上市化學材料公司；MoneyDJ列為偏光板供應商之一。
Downstream
  • Samsung Electronics 韓國上市消費電子品牌；公開資料列為群創全球資訊與消費電子客戶之一，但本次未能以官方客戶清單逐項確認。
  • LG Electronics 韓國上市消費電子品牌；公開資料列為群創全球資訊與消費電子客戶之一，但本次未能以官方客戶清單逐項確認。
  • Sony Group 日本上市消費電子品牌；公開資料列為群創全球資訊與消費電子客戶之一，但本次未能以官方客戶清單逐項確認。
  • Lenovo 香港上市PC品牌；公開資料列為群創資訊產品客戶之一，但本次未能以官方客戶清單逐項確認。
  • HP Inc. 美國上市PC品牌；公開資料列為群創資訊產品客戶之一，但本次未能以官方客戶清單逐項確認。
  • Dell Technologies 美國上市PC品牌；公開資料列為群創資訊產品客戶之一，但本次未能以官方客戶清單逐項確認。
  • Pioneer 日本車用影音與座艙電子品牌；已由群創子公司CarUX收購，未上市/非台股掛牌，未來與CarUX形成智慧座艙整合方案而非單純外部客戶關係。
  • 全球車廠與Tier 1供應鏈 車用CID、儀表、座艙顯示與觸控模組下游客戶群；多數客戶名稱未由公司公開完整揭露，故以應用與供應鏈類別呈現。

Competitors

  • 友達光電 2409 台股上市面板廠，為群創在TFT-LCD、車用顯示、商用/利基顯示與轉型業務上的主要台灣同業。
  • 瀚宇彩晶 6116 台股上市中小尺寸與利基面板廠，屬台灣面板同業。
  • 凌巨科技 8105 台股上市中小尺寸LCD面板廠，於工控、車用、消費性中小尺寸顯示等領域具競爭關係。
  • 元太科技 8069 台股上櫃電子紙顯示廠；技術路線不同，但在部分低功耗顯示、商用與工業顯示應用上可能形成替代競爭。
  • BOE 京東方 中國A股上市全球大型面板廠；非台股掛牌，為LCD與新型顯示主要國際競爭者。
  • TCL華星光電 中國TCL科技旗下大型面板廠；非台股掛牌，為電視與IT面板主要競爭者。
  • LG Display 韓國上市顯示面板廠；非台股掛牌，於OLED、車用與IT顯示領域競爭。
  • Samsung Display Samsung Electronics旗下顯示事業；非台股掛牌，於OLED與高階顯示領域競爭。
Sources（16）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.