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3512

皇龍 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, discounted valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 皇龍 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 90Quality 71Growth 96Momentum 27Chips 65

Is 皇龍 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~90% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.0%.

  • Valuation is low.PE is in the 14th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 41th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 2.5% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 190.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.16
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — bullish
  • 永豐金-松山 holds 726 lots
  • sellers have 21 lots left, ~26 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -2% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金-松山 has accumulated 726 lots since the start (sold 18%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 玉山證券 peaked at 106 lots, has sold 72%, 30 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.82pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.41pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -74 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金-松山凱基-台南台新-台南大展合庫-台南元大-金華
Distributing
玉山證券元大-林森台灣摩根士丹利國票證券元大-四維元大-南京
Desks
own scale
元大-博愛京城-嘉義永豐金-天母聯邦-台南
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金-松山 +726
    sold 18%
  • 凱基-台南 +311
    sold 11%
  • 台新-台南 +259
    sold 9%· still adding
  • 大展 +109
    sold 0%
  • 合庫-台南 +99
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-金華 +95
    sold 14%

Distributing

  • 玉山證券 30 left
    sold 72%· paused recently
  • 元大-林森 50 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 7 left
    sold 87%· ~12 sessions to clear
  • 國票證券 13 left
    sold 71%· paused recently
  • 元大-四維 7 left
    sold 74%· paused recently
  • 元大-南京 13 left
    sold 46%· paused recently

Desks

  • 元大-博愛 -1,253
    unclassified
  • 京城-嘉義 -525
    unclassified
  • 永豐金-天母 -106
    unclassified
  • 聯邦-台南 -103
    unclassified
Still selling 21 lots ~26 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +381 absorbed / -15 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 190.41%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

85 historical occurrences (since 2007-08-10)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 47.6%, Sample 84, Median -0.7%, Excess -0.25%, Beat mkt rate 41.7%；60-day: Win 37.3%, Sample 83, Median -3.01%, Excess -5.07%, Beat mkt rate 37.3%；120-day: Win 36.1%, Sample 83, Median -7.3%, Excess -11.29%, Beat mkt rate 24.1%

120 days after: historical avg -3.69%

20-day +0.94%
60-day -2.33%
120-day -3.69%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
47.6%
37.3%
36.1%
Sample
84
83
83
Median
-0.7%
-3.01%
-7.3%
Excess
-0.25%
-5.07%
-11.29%
Beat mkt rate
41.7%
37.3%
24.1%

Over 83 occurrences, 120-day forward avg declined 3.69%, lagged the market by 11.29 pts; win rate 36.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 627+2.9% +5.8% 60.4% -3.9%
20-40 186+2.9% -21.6% 45.7% -25.4%
40-60 You are here190-0.5% -0.8% 46.8% -45.5%
60-80 40-14.5% -15.3% 0% -95.5%
80-100 0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 11.98, at the 40.7th percentile of its own history (40-60 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-3.6%
Win rate 42.4% Excess -5.6%
377d
+10.3%
Win rate 76.2% Excess -8.3%
172d
Insufficient data
(0d)
60-day momentum down
+2.4%
Win rate 63.8% Excess -1.8%
326d
Now
-2.1%
Win rate 37.3% Excess -28.3%
268d
Insufficient data
(20d)

Currently in “Mid × 60-day momentum down”: across 268 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 2.1%, win rate 37.3%, lagged the market by 28.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

16 times historically; 60-day forward avg +12.48%, win rate 56.2%, beating the market by +7.87 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

24 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.01%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -3.99 pts on average.

What does 皇龍 do? Company profile

建材營造業 上櫃

Overview

3512 對應證券為上櫃普通股「皇龍」，公司全稱皇龍開發股份有限公司，為營運公司而非 ETF/ETN/權證等非營運證券。公司設立於 1992/06/08，前身具電子零組件製造背景，2018 年由能緹精密工業更名為皇龍開發並轉向營建開發主軸；2006/04/12 公開發行、2006/04/27 興櫃、2007/07/25 上櫃。總部位於台北市信義區松德路171號16樓之2，董事長陳文宏、總經理魏文珍、發言人為財務長溫財炳。官方揭露實收資本額為新台幣 1,130,724 仟元，普通股每股面額新台幣 10 元。2025 年法說會資料列示集團員工人數 60 人。主要法人/董監相關股東包含皇均投資有限公司、皇峰投資有限公司、皇成投資有限公司、安裕投資股份有限公司；2026 年 6 月股東常會全面改選董事公告顯示皇均投資代表人陳文宏、皇成投資代表人陳文成、皇峰投資代表人陳江山、安裕投資代表人魏文珍等續列董事席次。公司關係企業包含皇龍建設、龍崎文衡殿、財團法人陳堅慈善基金會；其中皇龍建設屬未上市關係企業。

Business

皇龍目前以台南住宅建案開發、銷售與交屋認列為主要營收來源，商業模式為取得土地、產品定位、委託/協同營造施工、預售與成屋銷售，於交屋時認列房地收入；另保留電子事業，產品聚焦電子零組件及液冷相關零組件。依 114 年度年報摘要，營收分布為房地收入 1,415,537 仟元、占 98.75%；CDU 17,776 仟元、占 1.24%；其他 121 仟元、占 0.01%，顯示營運高度集中於房地產開發。公司建案主要位於台南市仁德、永康、安南、中西、安平、關廟等區域，銷售對象以自住型、換屋型、首購及低總價住宅需求為主。2025 年法說會列示已售/完工個案包含峰時代、天慕、山見晴、皇龍雲鼎、天席、天慕Ⅱ、天澍、皇龍捷士悅、皇龍大砌、皇龍六璽、東門 CASA 等；在建/推進個案包含植上東門、皇龍天韻、天龍品居、海興段，合計可售金額約 89.1 億元。建築特色包含 ASBD 隔震系統、銀級綠建築設計及國際建材品牌採用。電子事業方面，法說會揭露持續與晶片公司合作開發關鍵液冷零組件，並與 Intel 合作開發超流體冷卻技術，已於 2025 年第 3 季完成認證，液態金屬流體模組仍在測試階段。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望以建案完工交屋節奏與台南住宅需求為核心。短中期成長動能來自東門 CASA、皇龍六璽、植上東門、皇龍天韻、天龍品居、海興段等建案陸續完工、銷售與交屋認列；其中法說會列示植上東門預計 2026 年第 3 季完工、皇龍天韻預計 2026 年第 4 季完工、海興段預計 2027 年第 2 季完工、天龍品居預計 2028 年第 2 季完工，若銷售率提升，將成為 2026-2028 年主要營收認列來源。策略上，公司表示將積極進行潛力地段土地開發，掌握小坪數、低總價、首購族群等需求，並以 ASBD 隔震、綠建築、建築品質與安全作為差異化。電子事業的潛在上行來自 AI 伺服器/高功耗晶片帶動液冷需求，包含 CDU、超流體冷卻、液態金屬磁力泵等開發，但目前占營收比重極低，能否形成實質貢獻仍需觀察客戶認證、量產與訂單。主要風險包含台灣房市在 2024 下半年第七波選擇性信用管制後進入量縮，2025 年全台買賣移轉棟數明顯下滑，銀行不動產授信水位與房貸核貸速度可能壓抑購屋需求；台南近年房價漲幅、供給量與買方觀望也可能影響去化。成本面風險包含土地取得成本、營建工料、缺工、利率、工程進度、交屋時程與法規變動；公司營收以建案交屋認列，年度波動性大，單一或少數建案延後即可能造成營收與 EPS 大幅波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 土地地主與政府標售/開發案來源 上游土地供給來源；皇龍營建事業需透過購地、合建或開發取得台南地區建案基地，實際地主多為個人、法人或政府機關，非單一台股掛牌公司。
  • 皇龍建設股份有限公司 皇龍官方列示之關係企業，屬未上市公司；與集團建設開發品牌及工程資源相關。
  • 營造承攬商、建築師、結構技師與室內/景觀設計廠商 建案開發上游專業服務與施工供應鏈；公開資料未完整揭露各案主要承包商，故不填台股代號。
  • LIXIL、Rinnai、Honeywell、SHIGERU、SANEI、WAFERLOCK、blum、TOTO、Panasonic 2025 年法說會列示之國際/台灣建材與設備品牌，多數為日本、美國、奧地利或未上市/非台股掛牌供應商；用於建案衛浴、廚具、五金、智慧門鎖等設備。
  • 晶片公司與液冷技術合作夥伴 電子事業上游/合作端；法說會揭露與晶片公司合作關鍵液冷零組件，並與 Intel 合作超流體冷卻技術，Intel 為美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
Downstream
  • 台南自住型、換屋型與首購購屋客戶 主要下游客戶群；公司法說會與年報文字均強調深耕南台灣住宅市場，產品面向自住、換屋、小坪數與低總價需求。
  • 房地產代銷、房仲與銀行房貸通路 住宅銷售與交易完成所需通路/金融服務；公開資料未確認特定台股掛牌公司為主要通路。
  • 液冷系統終端客戶 電子事業潛在下游；法說會稱超流體冷卻技術將推廣於液冷系統終端客戶，但未揭露具名客戶，故 stock_id 為 null。

Competitors

  • 興富發 2542 上市建設公司，住宅與商辦開發規模大，為台灣建材營造/建設開發同業。
  • 國建 2501 上市建設公司，住宅及商用不動產開發同業。
  • 太子 2511 上市建設公司，具南部市場與住宅開發業務，與皇龍區域需求部分重疊。
  • 華固 2548 上市建設公司，以住宅、商辦開發為主，屬高品質住宅開發競爭者。
  • 遠雄 5522 上市建設公司，全台住宅、商辦與大型開發案同業。
  • 長虹 5534 上市建設公司，住宅與商用不動產開發同業。
  • 冠德 2520 上市建設公司，住宅、商場與不動產開發同業。
  • 達麗 6177 上市建設公司，近年於南部與全台住宅市場均有推案，與皇龍部分區域競爭。
  • 隆大 5519 上櫃營建公司，深耕高雄及南部市場，區域屬性與皇龍較接近。
  • 永信建 5508 上櫃建設公司，南部住宅建案同業。
  • 欣巴巴 9906 上市公司，具營建與建設開發業務，南部房市同業。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.