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Help me set up FinLab and analyze 5306 桂盟. Please read: https://finlab.finance/en/setup?stock=5306
5306
strong quality, discounted valuation, no active signal today.
Is 桂盟 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first
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Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~86% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 2.5%.
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Valuation is low.PE is in the 20th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 30th percentile.
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Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 6.9% of volume (net buy).
Chip flow
Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -9% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12
- Largest holder 群益金鼎-東門 has accumulated 228 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
- Main distributor 永豐金-竹科 peaked at 151 lots, has sold 64%, 55 left, ~13 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
- TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -0.70pp, mid holders +0, retail +0.54pp — little change.
- Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -395 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Accumulating
- 群益金鼎-東門 +228
- (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 +181
- 美商高盛 +179
- 永豐金-台南 +171
- 玉山-台南 +152
- 元大-府城 +68
Distributing
- 永豐金-竹科 55 left
- 康和-延平 82 left
- 元大證券 53 left
- 華南永昌 27 left
- 統一 28 left
- 國泰-館前 18 left
Desks
- 玉山證券 -404
- 凱基-台北 -294
- 富邦-竹科 -257
- 元大-華山 -195
Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.
Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.
Historical evidence
Valuation regime and subsequent returns
Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.
| PE percentile band | Sample days | 240-day avg return | Median | Win rate | Avg excess (vs index) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-20 | 1610 | +10.5% | -2.5% | 45.7% | -6.9% |
| 20-40 You are here | 187 | +0.7% | -6.9% | 42.8% | -21.5% |
| 40-60 | 326 | +1.1% | -0.4% | 49.4% | -31.5% |
| 60-80 | 178 | -29.3% | -31.1% | 0% | -39.7% |
| 80-100 | 0 | Insufficient data | |||
Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.
Current PE ≈ 13.66, at the 30.5th percentile of its own history (20-40 band).
Valuation × momentum historical grid
Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.
Currently in “Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 1156 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 6.3%, win rate 42.9%, lagged the market by 3.9%.
Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.
Signals not active (historical stats for reference)
These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.
252-day price high (breakout)
PendingAdjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.
25 times historically; 60-day forward avg +17.01%, win rate 68%, beating the market by +14.58 pts on average.
Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)
PendingMonthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).
81 times historically; 60-day forward avg +9.52%, win rate 60.3%, beating the market by +5.55 pts on average.
Foreign net buying for 5 straight days
PendingForeign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.
57 times historically; 60-day forward avg +1.13%, win rate 38.2%, beating the market by -2.19 pts on average.
What does 桂盟 do? Company profile
Overview
桂盟國際股份有限公司，英文名稱 KMC (Kuei Meng) International Inc.，證券代號 5306，為普通股營運公司。公司原為訊康科技，1989/04/20 成立，1993/08/06 公開發行，1995/12/26 上櫃，2012 年更名為桂盟國際，2022/03/08 轉上市。總部／公司地址為台南市永康區中華路425號8樓之5；董事長吳盈進，總經理吳瑞章，發言人陳泳仁。股本約新台幣12.60億元，已發行普通股126,000,772股。2024 年報揭露 2024 年底員工總數1,436人，至2025/03/31為1,439人。主要股東依2024年報截至2025/03/31資料：KMC TRANSTON INDUSTRIES LIMITED 持股47,412,256股、37.63%；利澤投資 7,902,042股、6.27%；余文英 7,902,040股、6.27%；KMC Global 3,000,000股、2.38%；吳惠蘭 2,822,549股、2.24%；Supreme Profit International 2,758,780股、2.19%；勳利投資與洛奇尼投資各約2,032,072股、1.61%。公司自稱為全球最大規模鏈條製造廠商，具10座生產基地與11個服務據點，以13種語言行銷全球150餘國。
Business
主要產品包括自行車鏈條、機車鏈條及鏈輪、汽車正時系統、車庫門開門機系統傳動零件。商業模式涵蓋 OEM 與 AM 售後維修市場：自行車鏈條銷售給自行車製造商、系統商、經銷商與獨立車店；機車傳動產品銷售給機車製造商與零件經銷商；汽車正時系統供應汽車製造商及售後維修通路；車庫門開門機系統供應車庫門製造商。2025年前三季產品別營收比重：自行車鏈條72.1%、機車4.1%、汽車正時系統14.3%、車庫門開門機8.3%、其他1.2%；2024年地區別營收為亞洲61.3%、歐洲22.2%、美洲16.5%。2024年合併營收49.60億元；2025全年公開營收資料約46.86億元、年減約6%，主因自行車產業仍處庫存與需求調整。公司揭露2024年無單一客戶銷售超過總營收10%，顯示客戶集中度相對分散；2024年主要供應商為 ANSTEEL，採購金額約3.074億元、占總採購26.1%。
Outlook 2025–2028
2025至2028展望以復甦與產品組合升級為主軸。成長動能包括：一、自行車市場庫存調整逐步趨緩，歐美高階自行車補修 AM 市場需求回溫，桂盟持續發展歐、美高階鏈條維修市場；二、E-bike 對高強度、高耐用鏈條需求增加，公司開發 E-bike 專用鏈條與傳動系統零件，並以雙品牌策略擴大市占；三、汽車正時系統受惠全球汽車保有量與中國汽車售後維修市場，公司規劃擴大維修市場並與車廠合作開發新能源車相關零件；四、機車鏈條在東南亞、南亞等機車保有量高且公共運輸不足市場仍有替換需求；五、車庫門開門機系統朝模組化及 OEM 市場發展。公司2025第三季簡報顯示毛利率受產品組合改善推升，Bike AM 與 ATS 銷售比重增加有利毛利。2026年後的可觀察重點為自行車整車去庫存速度、歐美消費復甦、E-bike滲透率、售後維修通路擴張、關稅與地緣政治變化、原物料價格與匯率。主要風險包括全球通膨與利率壓抑消費、貿易保護與關稅、仿冒與低價競爭、中低階鏈條來自中國廠商的價格壓力、汽車電動化降低部分傳統引擎正時系統需求，以及主要原料鋼材供應或價格波動。2027至2028具體營收與獲利數字未見公司正式指引，僅能依公司長期策略推估。
Supply Chain
- ANSTEEL／鞍鋼集團相關供應體系 主要金屬原料供應商；2024年報揭露 ANSTEEL 採購占比26.1%，供應鋼帶、扁線、鋼線、滾子等鏈條關鍵材料；非台股掛牌。
- 金屬原材料供應商 上游為鋼帶、扁線、鋼線、鏈條滾子等金屬材料與加工件供應商；公司年報稱關鍵材料供應狀況良好，其他供應商合計占2024年採購73.9%。
- 自行車與機車零組件設備／熱處理／表面處理供應鏈 鏈條製程涉及沖壓、捲製、切銷、研磨、熱處理、表面處理、組裝與包裝；公開資料未揭露個別台股供應商名稱。
- 自行車製造商與品牌商 自行車鏈條 OEM 客戶群；年報揭露下游客戶包括 Bicycle Maker、System Maker、經銷商與獨立車店，且無單一客戶銷售超過10%。
- 巨大 9921 台股上市自行車整車品牌與製造商，屬桂盟所在自行車傳動供應鏈下游；曾為桂盟策略投資相關產業公司之一，公開資料未揭露近年對巨大個別銷售金額。
- 美利達 9914 台股上市自行車整車品牌與製造商，屬自行車鏈條與傳動零件下游應用端；曾為桂盟策略投資相關產業公司之一，公開資料未揭露近年對美利達個別銷售金額。
- 機車製造商與零件經銷商 機車鏈條及鏈輪產品下游，重點市場為亞洲、東南亞與南亞 OEM 及 AM 維修通路。
- 汽車製造商與售後維修通路 汽車正時系統下游；公司年報稱主要客戶在中國大陸汽車製造商，並發展全球售後維修市場及新能源車零件合作。
- 車庫門開門機製造商 車庫門開門機系統傳動零件下游，主要市場在北美與歐洲；公司朝模組化與 OEM 市場發展。
Competitors
- Shimano Inc. 日本上市公司，全球自行車變速、煞車與傳動系統龍頭；在高階傳動系統與鏈條市場與桂盟競爭，也曾為桂盟策略投資人之一。
- SRAM LLC 美國未上市自行車傳動系統品牌，主要競爭於中高階自行車 drivetrain、生態系與鏈條產品。
- YBN／雅邦企業 台灣未上市自行車鏈條品牌，為鏈條產品直接競爭者。
- TAYA Chain／大亞鏈條 台灣未上市鏈條製造商，產品涵蓋自行車鏈條，屬直接競爭者；注意非台股上市的大亞電線電纜。
- Izumi Chain 日本鏈條製造商，供應自行車鏈條與工業鏈條，為國際鏈條市場競爭者。
- 日馳企業 1526 台股上市自行車零組件廠，產品以飛輪、花鼓等傳動相關零組件為主，並非純鏈條廠；屬廣義自行車傳動零組件競爭／替代供應鏈同業。
Sources（8）
This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.
Method and limitations
- All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
- Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
- Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
- Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
- Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.
This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.