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5531

鄉林 Construction & Materials As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

quality needs a look, premium valuation.

2 active signals
Revenue ≥20% Foreign buy
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 鄉林 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 36Quality 14Growth 85Momentum 21Chips 18

Is 鄉林 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Weak profitability.Operating margin is in the 3th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.1%.

  • Valuation is high.PE is in the 94th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 94th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -2.9% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 55.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20%, Foreign net buying 5 straight days are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.49
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 永豐金-台中 holds 7,058 lots
  • sellers have 137 lots left, ~26 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -7% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 永豐金-台中 has accumulated 7,058 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 花旗環球 peaked at 403 lots, has sold 28%, 290 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.64pp, mid holders +2, retail -0.73pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -2,506 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
永豐金-台中華南永昌-忠孝(牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐日茂玉山-士林群益金鼎-開元
Distributing
花旗環球富邦-新店摩根大通兆豐-大安富邦-新營元大-四維
Desks
own scale
凱基-台北臺銀-民權美商高盛元大-草屯
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 永豐金-台中 +7,058
    sold 0%
  • 華南永昌-忠孝 +1,100
    sold 0%
  • (牛牛牛)亞-鑫豐 +476
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 日茂 +462
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 玉山-士林 +457
    sold 23%· still adding
  • 群益金鼎-開元 +301
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 花旗環球 290 left
    sold 28%· paused recently
  • 富邦-新店 154 left
    sold 50%· paused recently
  • 摩根大通 157 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 兆豐-大安 83 left
    sold 51%· paused recently
  • 富邦-新營 77 left
    sold 34%· paused recently
  • 元大-四維 16 left
    sold 85%· ~3 sessions to clear

Desks

  • 凱基-台北 -1,775
    day-trade · selling pressure
  • 臺銀-民權 -1,102
    unclassified
  • 美商高盛 -893
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大-草屯 -666
    unclassified
Still selling 137 lots ~26 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,114 absorbed / -198 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -502 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 55.16%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

112 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 46.3%, Sample 95, Median -0.28%, Excess -0.2%, Beat mkt rate 42.1%；60-day: Win 50%, Sample 94, Median +0.1%, Excess +1.7%, Beat mkt rate 41.5%；120-day: Win 46.2%, Sample 93, Median -1.25%, Excess -1.74%, Beat mkt rate 34.4%

120 days after: historical avg +3.01%

20-day +0.88%
60-day +4.69%
120-day +3.01%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
46.3%
50%
46.2%
Sample
95
94
93
Median
-0.28%
+0.1%
-1.25%
Excess
-0.2%
+1.7%
-1.74%
Beat mkt rate
42.1%
41.5%
34.4%

Over 93 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 3.01%, lagged the market by 1.74 pts; win rate 46.2%.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Active · now 5%

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

73 historical occurrences (since 2012-06-29)
Average forward return after Foreign net buying for 5 straight days。20-day: Win 44.4%, Sample 72, Median -0.24%, Excess -0.24%, Beat mkt rate 37.5%；60-day: Win 39.4%, Sample 71, Median -1.63%, Excess -4.48%, Beat mkt rate 31%；120-day: Win 54.3%, Sample 70, Median +0.9%, Excess -7.37%, Beat mkt rate 25.7%

120 days after: historical avg +0.92%

20-day +0.93%
60-day -0.71%
120-day +0.92%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
44.4%
39.4%
54.3%
Sample
72
71
70
Median
-0.24%
-1.63%
+0.9%
Excess
-0.24%
-4.48%
-7.37%
Beat mkt rate
37.5%
31%
25.7%

Over 70 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 0.92%, lagged the market by 7.37 pts; win rate 54.3%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 481-4.3% -8.6% 24.5% -24.5%
20-40 115-19.1% -20.6% 0% -24.4%
40-60 254+3.7% +3.5% 68.9% -5.4%
60-80 381+5.4% +3.8% 63.5% -9.4%
80-100 You are here641-3.1% +0.5% 50.4% -50%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 166.6, at the 93.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
-5.5%
Win rate 32.9% Excess -12.6%
228d
+2.7%
Win rate 67.8% Excess -0.4%
211d
+2.3%
Win rate 49.4% Excess -15.9%
476d
60-day momentum down
-12.8%
Win rate 14.3% Excess -16.1%
342d
+6.1%
Win rate 65.2% Excess +0.5%
178d
Now
+2.5%
Win rate 49.9% Excess -22.3%
557d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 557 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 2.5%, win rate 49.9%, lagged the market by 22.3%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

15 times historically; 60-day forward avg -6.57%, win rate 13.3%, beating the market by -9.3 pts on average.

What does 鄉林 do? Company profile

建材營造業／營建業／不動產開發 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

5531 對應證券為鄉林建設事業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 1990/05/29，公開發行日為 1996/11/27，2001/06/19 上櫃，2005/01/31 轉上市。公司登記地址與總公司位於台中市西區臺灣大道二段408號1樓；台北亦有營運據點。董事長為賴正鎰，總經理為方偉民；截至公司官網基本資料，實收資本額為新台幣10,775,892,450元。2024年報揭露員工數為2024年底148人、2025年3月底146人。主要經營業務為委託營造廠興建住宅、商業大樓出租或出售，並透過集團與轉投資布局飯店、商業不動產與中國大陸房地產開發。可確認之主要董監與關係股東包括鼎林投資開發、鼎正投資、正記投資、溢陽投資等；法人股東背後主要股東含賴正鎰、陳淑芬、京廷投資、和邑投資等。2026年4月董監持股資料顯示鼎林投資開發持股約96,009張、持股比率約9.82%，並有高比例設質；此為外部資料，仍應以公開資訊觀測站最新申報為準。

Business

鄉林核心商業模式是取得或整合土地後，進行市場調查、產品定位、規劃設計、行銷銷售、委託子公司或營造廠施工，完工後交屋認列房地收入；另有酒店收入、租賃收入及少量其他收入。2024年合併營收新台幣4,108,112仟元，年增8.72%；營收結構為房地收入3,494,047仟元、占85.05%，酒店收入561,239仟元、占13.66%，租賃收入43,325仟元、占1.05%，其他收入9,501仟元、占0.23%。2024年主要入帳來源包括預售案鄉林圓頂完工入帳、鄉林美術館成屋銷售、出售衡陽路古蹟可移轉容積予皇翔建設、青島鼎林酒店、南京鼎正酒店與房產收入，以及租金收入。產品以住宅大樓、住宅店鋪、辦公大樓、高級住宅、都更合建案、飯店與酒店式公寓／商業綜合體為主；銷售地區以北部與中部為主，並在中國大陸青島、南京、成都等地有飯店與房產開發。主要客戶方面，公司年報明確表示銷售客戶以一般社會大眾為主，最近兩年度及截至2024年度止無單一銷貨金額占總銷貨10%以上之客戶。公司差異化主軸為高級住宅品牌、涵碧樓飯店品牌、都更合建整合能力，以及以子公司太裕營造掌握施工品質。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以公司公開規劃及新聞資訊推估，確定性中等。公司年報稱2025至2029年營運展望朝地產、旅遊、商業三方向推進，台灣預計公開銷售案包括台北北投合建案、萬華都更案、台北新莊合建案、農安街都更案等；中國大陸則以成都涵碧天下R6、R4、R2、R1及新購地塊為主，公司目標維持每年計畫推案量約新台幣200至300多億元。成長動能包括：一、台北市中山區中山・新松町新城計畫，公司稱範圍約40多個街廓、11萬坪土地，規劃分6階段、15年完成，首案鄉林中山賦已動工，後續吉林、民權、農安等基地若都更審議與地主整合順利，可能形成長線案源；二、北投、萬華、新莊等雙北都更與合建案，其中萬華案外部新聞稱可分回銷售戶數123戶、總銷約65億元，新莊案總銷約52億元，實際仍取決於審議、銷售與完工時程；三、成都涵碧天下R6、R4住宅可售樓板面積合計約73.6萬平方公尺，公司年報稱R6總銷約新台幣100億元、R4約109億元，2026年新聞亦稱成都項目下半年公開銷售機會提高；四、2026年前後鄉林中山賦、北投靜岡、雲林雲峰等案的銷售或完工認列可能改善營收波動。產業趨勢方面，台灣都更、危老、老屋換屋剛需、雙北蛋黃區供給稀缺、小宅化、建材碳費與綠建築要求，是公司看重的中期主題。主要風險包括央行選擇性信用管制、房市成交量縮、利率與房貸成數限制、土地整合與都更審議時程不確定、建材與缺工成本、預售銷售去化速度、成都與中國房地產市場政策與需求波動、酒店景氣波動、轉投資與背書保證風險，以及董監股權設質較高可能帶來治理與市場觀感風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 土地所有權人／地主／合建地主 土地為鄉林主要原料之一；來源包括個人地主、合建、都市更新整合、仲介推薦、國有財產署或銀行釋出標售、重劃區抵費地及法拍等，多數非上市櫃或為自然人。
  • 太裕營造股份有限公司 鄉林子公司／關係企業，承攬或協助營建工程；2024年個體進貨中太裕營造占比98.17%，2025年第一季占比98.53%，未上市櫃。
  • 建築師、室內設計、景觀設計、測量、地質鑽探、地政士與代書業者 規劃設計、執照申請、土地移轉與都更整合相關服務供應商；多為專業服務業者，年報未揭露特定上市櫃公司名稱。
  • 水泥、鋼筋、砂石、磁磚、門窗、管材、五金、玻璃、機電、消防等建材與工程供應商 營建施工所需材料與工程供應來源；年報僅揭露類別，未揭露特定上市櫃供應商名稱。
  • 金融機構 提供土地融資、建築融資、買方房貸與信託／保證等服務；年報描述為房地產上游與中游重要關係，但未指定單一上市櫃銀行。
Downstream
  • 一般購屋者／換屋族／首購族／高資產置產族群 住宅、店鋪、辦公與預售屋主要終端客戶；年報稱無單一銷貨客戶占總銷貨10%以上。
  • 皇翔建設股份有限公司 2545 2024年鄉林出售台北市衡陽路60號店屋古蹟可移轉容積予皇翔建設，買賣總價新台幣895,406仟元；屬特定交易買方，不代表常態主要客戶。
  • 酒店旅客、餐飲與商務客戶 青島、南京等涵碧樓酒店收入之終端客戶，包含住宿、餐飲、會議與旅遊休閒需求；多為個人或企業客戶。
  • 物業管理、社區管理、裝潢、家具家電與售後服務相關需求端 完工交屋後帶動之下游服務與消費鏈；年報描述為房地產開發後段關聯產業，未指名特定上市櫃公司。

Competitors

  • 興富發 2542 台股上市建設開發同業，推案規模大，為住宅與商辦開發競爭者。
  • 遠雄 5522 台股上市大型建設公司，住宅、商辦與大型開發案皆與鄉林存在區域與客群競爭。
  • 華固 2548 台股上市建設公司，雙北高價住宅與商辦市場具競爭性。
  • 長虹 5534 台股上市建設公司，雙北與都會區推案為主要競爭來源之一。
  • 國建 2501 台股上市建設公司，住宅與商辦開發同業。
  • 冠德 2520 台股上市建設公司，雙北住宅與商用不動產具競爭關係。
  • 愛山林 2540 台股上市不動產代銷與建設開發公司，在預售與新案市場具競爭關係。
  • 皇翔 2545 台股上市建設公司，同屬台北都會區住宅與開發案競爭者；亦曾為鄉林容積移轉交易買方。
  • 達麗 6177 台股上市建設公司，住宅推案與都會區開發同業。
  • 太子 2511 台股上市建設公司，住宅與商用不動產開發同業。
Sources（10）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.