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6829

千附精密 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 千附精密 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 27Quality 82Growth 79Momentum 86Chips 15

Is 千附精密 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 79th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 4.9%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 75th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 97th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.6% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 37.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Neutral -0.10
BearishNeutralBullish

Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral

  • Institutional rotation, concentration steady — neutral
  • 第一金-中壢 holds 535 lots
  • sellers have 373 lots left, ~40 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +76% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 第一金-中壢 has accumulated 535 lots since the start (sold 4%), now trimming.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 293 lots, has sold 64%, 106 left, ~15 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +0.00pp, mid holders -1, retail +0.83pp — little change.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -119 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
第一金-中壢元富-吉利第一金-台中華南永昌-潮州富邦-新板兆豐-天母
Distributing
摩根大通台灣摩根士丹利國票證券新加坡商瑞銀國票-敦北法人國票-安和
Desks
own scale
中國信託-文心台新元大-內湖民權群益金鼎-板橋
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 第一金-中壢 +535
    sold 4%
  • 元富-吉利 +116
    sold 0%
  • 第一金-台中 +111
    sold 12%
  • 華南永昌-潮州 +107
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-新板 +105
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-天母 +100
    sold 0%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 106 left
    sold 64%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 99 left
    sold 61%· paused recently
  • 國票證券 97 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 47 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 國票-敦北法人 41 left
    sold 68%· paused recently
  • 國票-安和 91 left
    sold 25%· paused recently

Desks

  • 中國信託-文心 -141
    unclassified
  • 台新 -135
    unclassified
  • 元大-內湖民權 -129
    unclassified
  • 群益金鼎-板橋 -98
    unclassified
Still selling 373 lots ~40 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +300 absorbed / -298 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -72 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 37.24%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

18 historical occurrences (since 2022-03-11)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 53.3%, Sample 15, Median +1.59%, Excess +1.61%, Beat mkt rate 40%；60-day: Win 46.2%, Sample 13, Median -0.4%, Excess -6.11%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%；120-day: Win 61.5%, Sample 13, Median +8.5%, Excess -5.28%, Beat mkt rate 46.2%

120 days after: historical avg +10.95%

20-day +3.86%
60-day -1.72%
120-day +10.95%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
53.3%
46.2%
61.5%
Sample
15
13
13
Median
+1.59%
-0.4%
+8.5%
Excess
+1.61%
-6.11%
-5.28%
Beat mkt rate
40%
46.2%
46.2%

Over 13 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.95%, lagged the market by 5.28 pts; win rate 61.5%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 0Insufficient data
20-40 29Insufficient data
40-60 19Insufficient data
60-80 0Insufficient data
80-100 You are here0Insufficient data

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 48.09, at the 96.9th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
Insufficient data
(3d)
+18.5%
Win rate 33.3% Excess -17.5%
36d
Now
-9.6%
Win rate 16.1% Excess -43.7%
31d
60-day momentum down
Insufficient data
(16d)
+37.3%
Win rate 50.6% Excess -6.4%
79d
Insufficient data
(3d)

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 31 historical days, 120-day forward avg declined 9.6%, win rate 16.1%, lagged the market by 43.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

6 times historically; 60-day forward avg -4.46%, win rate 20%, beating the market by -7.26 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

10 times historically; 60-day forward avg +20.22%, win rate 50%, beating the market by +17.61 pts on average.

What does 千附精密 do? Company profile

半導體業；精密零組件、半導體與光電設備零組件、航太及國防零組件 上櫃

Overview

6829 對應證券為千附精密股份有限公司，為台灣櫃買中心上櫃普通股，非 ETF、ETN、權證或特別股。公司成立於 2020 年 7 月 20 日，由千附實業股份有限公司精科事業部門分割移轉成立，2021 年 9 月登錄興櫃，2022 年 3 月 11 日掛牌上櫃。總部/主要廠區位於中部科學園區台中市后里區后科南路 28 號，另有台北辦公室與台中潭子分公司/廠區。董事長為張瓊如，總經理為賴明村。依 2024 年年報，2025 年 3 月 25 日流通在外普通股為 59,169,000 股，實收股本約新台幣 591,690,000 元，核定股本新台幣 1,000,000,000 元。依年報截至 2025 年 2 月 28 日員工合計 522 人。主要股東方面，2025 年 3 月 25 日千附實業持股 37,278,000 股、持股比例 63.00%，為最主要股東；其他前十大股東包含陳族元、外資保管專戶、中盈投資開發、京鼎精密科技、玉舍投資等，但持股比例皆遠低於千附實業。公司 2024 年董事會通過 2024 年度每股現金股利 5 元，股利政策原則上以不低於當年度可分配盈餘 50% 為原則，現金股利不低於全部股利 10%。

Business

千附精密主要從事精密零組件、次系統與模組整合製造，產品涵蓋光電顯示器設備零組件、半導體製程設備零組件、航太機身結構件、飛機引擎零組件及國防相關高端精密零件。依 2024 年年報，2024 年營收新台幣 1,519,633 千元，其中光電及半導體設備零組件營收 1,027,111 千元，占 67.59%；航太零組件營收 492,522 千元，占 32.41%。主要產品包括大型真空 PVD/CVD 腔體、關鍵性零組件、飛機機身結構件、飛機引擎零件、航太飛行器與控制相關零組件。商業模式為依客戶規格進行高精度加工、厚板焊接、表面處理、組裝、測試與量測，逐步往關鍵零組件、Critical Part/module、次系統模組與在地化供應鏈發展。公司在顯示器設備領域強調鋁合金厚板焊接與精密加工能力，為大型高真空腔體及關鍵零組件供應商；在半導體設備領域切入 CVD/PVD 腔體、半導體不鏽鋼腔體、連工帶料模組、EUV 相關零組件與次系統模組組裝測試；在航太領域承製飛機零件、發動機零件與機匣，年報提及其在 CFM-56 引擎部分壓縮段/燃燒段機匣加工占全球供應量約 40% 至 50%，GE-90 發動機導流葉片加工約 50% 市占。客戶結構方面，年報因保密以 A 集團、B 公司、C 公司揭露多數客戶；2024 年 A 集團銷售 683,523 千元、占 44.98%，B 公司 314,096 千元、占 20.67%，C 公司 179,443 千元、占 11.81%，漢翔 176,239 千元、占 11.60%。新聞與公司資料另提及其為美系/歐系半導體設備大廠供應鏈，包含應用材料、ASML、Lam Research 等相關產業脈絡，但部分客戶名稱與正式交易比例未由年報逐一揭露。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年展望可分為半導體設備、航太/國防、產能擴張與風險四個面向。第一，半導體設備為最主要中期成長動能。公司年報引用 SEMI 對 2025 年半導體製造設備與晶圓廠設備支出成長的看法，並指出公司持續與國際大廠合作開發 Critical Part/module、推動 Localization 在地化，降低進口成本與交期。2025 年 12 月法人說明會新聞報導指出，總經理賴明村表示 2026 年半導體業績可望成長 2 至 3 成，軍工業績可望雙位數成長，毛利率有機會回升至約 3 成；此屬公司展望與媒體報導，非保證數字。第二，嘉義馬稠後新廠是 2026 年後關鍵產能。年報揭露嘉義新廠及設備購買計畫總額約新台幣 28 億元，預計 2026 年 8 月完工；新聞報導則稱新廠第一期占地約 5,000 坪、建築面積約 1 萬坪，預計 2026 年第 2 季投產或進入量產，主攻半導體設備、航太與國防高端精密零件。若投產與認證順利，2026-2028 年可望放大半導體不鏽鋼腔體、模組組裝測試、特殊製程及航太國防精密加工產能。第三，航太與國防需求具長單支撐。全球航空客運復甦、波音與空巴供應鏈回補、漢翔訂單回溫，以及美國軍工客戶需求，對公司航太與國防零組件有利；MoneyDJ 2025 年報導指出公司已接獲 2 至 3 年軍工長單，軍工產品毛利率較高，有助獲利結構。第四，主要風險包括：A 集團銷售占比約 45%，存在客戶集中與景氣循環風險；半導體與光電設備資本支出波動大，若晶圓廠擴產、面板設備投資或 AI/HPC 相關需求遞延，訂單可能波動；航太/軍工需通過嚴格認證與交期要求，客戶產能、國際政治、出口管制與供應鏈調度均可能影響出貨；嘉義新廠投資額大，若完工、稼動率或客戶認證不如預期，折舊與財務成本可能壓抑獲利；公司有美元部位，年報揭露美元對新台幣升貶 1% 對稅前損益約有 4,695 千元影響；另有原物料、不鏽鋼/鋁合金供應、人才招募與資安風險。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 合錩國際股份有限公司 年報揭露為不鏽鋼主要供應商，2024 年進貨金額 104,566 千元，占進貨淨額 34.44%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • TKM 年報揭露為 2023 年主要素材供應商之一，2023 年進貨 45,158 千元、占 17.28%；名稱以代號揭露，真實公司與掛牌狀態未確認。
  • 千城 年報揭露為 2023 年主要素材供應商之一，2023 年進貨 20,615 千元、占 7.89%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 群智 年報揭露為 2024 年主要素材供應商之一，2024 年進貨 19,755 千元、占 6.51%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 申鎰 年報揭露為 2024 年主要素材供應商之一，2024 年進貨 17,075 千元、占 5.62%；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 客戶自行供料之鋁合金供應鏈 年報說明鋁合金等原料多由銷售客戶自行供料，因此上游實際來源部分未由公司完整揭露。
Downstream
  • A 集團 年報以匿名方式揭露的最大銷貨客戶，2024 年銷售 683,523 千元、占 44.98%；公司說明其為國際設備大廠，實名未揭露，非台股掛牌資訊無法確認。
  • B 公司 年報以匿名方式揭露的主要銷貨客戶，2024 年銷售 314,096 千元、占 20.67%；實名與掛牌狀態未揭露。
  • C 公司 年報以匿名方式揭露的主要銷貨客戶，2024 年銷售 179,443 千元、占 11.81%；實名與掛牌狀態未揭露。
  • 漢翔航空工業股份有限公司 2634 台股上市航太公司，年報揭露 2024 年銷售 176,239 千元、占 11.60%；千附精密為漢翔主要供應商之一，合作航太零組件。
  • 應用材料 Applied Materials 美國上市半導體設備商；公開新聞稱千附精密為應材供應商，但年報未逐項揭露交易金額與客戶實名。
  • ASML 荷蘭上市半導體設備商；年報提及公司與全球最大 EUV 設備製造商進行零組件、次系統模組組裝生產測試及專案同步開發，新聞亦提到 ASML 代表出席嘉義新廠動土，實際交易細節未逐項揭露。
  • Lam Research 美國上市半導體設備商；新聞提及其代表出席嘉義新廠動土，屬半導體設備下游客戶/潛在合作生態系，實際交易金額未揭露。
  • Lockheed Martin 美國上市國防航太公司；新聞報導千附精密承製愛國者飛彈控制箱及飛彈相關零組件，屬軍工下游，但年報未揭露客戶實名與金額。

Competitors

Sources（14）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.