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8261

富鼎 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
252d high
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 富鼎 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 37Quality 79Growth 35Momentum 92Chips 12

Is 富鼎 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~90% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.1%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 65th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 83th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -4.3% of volume (net sell).

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.79
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 凱基-松山 holds 5,729 lots
  • sellers have 2,446 lots left, ~940 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +106% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 凱基-松山 has accumulated 5,729 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 台灣摩根士丹利 peaked at 3,983 lots, has sold 86%, 562 left, ~9 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.74pp, mid holders +5, retail -4.59pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -629 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
凱基-松山台新-大昌永豐金證券元大-士林國泰證券兆豐-三民
Distributing
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛凱基-台北美林摩根大通元大證券
Desks
own scale
新加坡商瑞銀統一-板橋富邦-公益國票-桃園
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 凱基-松山 +5,729
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 台新-大昌 +1,555
    sold 9%
  • 永豐金證券 +1,263
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大-士林 +1,239
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 國泰證券 +1,176
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 兆豐-三民 +611
    sold 19%· still adding

Distributing

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 562 left
    sold 86%· ~9 sessions to clear
  • 美商高盛 315 left
    sold 89%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 凱基-台北 378 left
    sold 83%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 美林 393 left
    sold 78%· ~15 sessions to clear
  • 摩根大通 172 left
    sold 90%· ~3 sessions to clear
  • 元大證券 673 left
    sold 52%· paused recently

Desks

  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -431
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 統一-板橋 -334
    unclassified
  • 富邦-公益 -310
    unclassified
  • 國票-桃園 -263
    unclassified
Still selling 2,446 lots ~940 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +11,201 absorbed / -4,045 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -489 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

20 historical occurrences (since 2009-04-27)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 57.9%, Sample 19, Median +8.8%, Excess +6.36%, Beat mkt rate 57.9%；60-day: Win 61.1%, Sample 18, Median +5.54%, Excess +4.37%, Beat mkt rate 55.6%；120-day: Win 52.9%, Sample 17, Median +18.42%, Excess +12.92%, Beat mkt rate 41.2%

120 days after: historical avg +25.21%

20-day +8.02%
60-day +11.56%
120-day +25.21%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.9%
61.1%
52.9%
Sample
19
18
17
Median
+8.8%
+5.54%
+18.42%
Excess
+6.36%
+4.37%
+12.92%
Beat mkt rate
57.9%
55.6%
41.2%

Over 17 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 25.21%, beat the market by 12.92 pts; win rate 52.9%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 573+4.9% -3.4% 40% -14.1%
20-40 412+39.9% +15% 69.7% +19%
40-60 434+39.6% +17.1% 74.2% +15.7%
60-80 495+61.5% +27.5% 77.2% +36.2%
80-100 You are here269+15.5% +8.6% 63.9% +9.7%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 33.48, at the 82.7th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+8.8%
Win rate 51.9% Excess +0.3%
451d
+21.2%
Win rate 58.1% Excess +12.4%
425d
Now
+20.6%
Win rate 57.2% Excess +8.2%
353d
60-day momentum down
+6.8%
Win rate 56.4% Excess -5.2%
486d
+7.9%
Win rate 59.7% Excess -0.9%
295d
+23.5%
Win rate 78.8% Excess +11.9%
293d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 353 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 20.6%, win rate 57.2%, beat the market by 8.2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Pending

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

78 times historically; 60-day forward avg +11.39%, win rate 62.3%, beating the market by +6.87 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

51 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.93%, win rate 51%, beating the market by +4.36 pts on average.

What does 富鼎 do? Company profile

半導體業；功率半導體、MOSFET、IGBT、Power IC 上市（臺灣證券交易所）

Overview

富鼎先進電子股份有限公司成立於1998年7月，總部位於新竹縣竹北市台元一街5號12樓，股票代號8261，2004年4月15日上櫃、2009年12月11日上市，屬上市普通股。公司自稱為台灣第一家成功整合6吋DMOS製程的IC設計公司，提供MOSFET、IGBT、Power IC與近年新增之SiC相關電源解決方案。董事長為陳泰銘，總經理為張嘉帥。實收資本額約新台幣11.8878億元，已發行普通股約118,878,393股；公司登記與券商資料顯示主要業務為電子零組件製造、電子元件設計、電子元件測試服務。主要股東與策略背景方面，國創半導體於2022年參與富鼎私募35,000張、金額約28.868億元，交易完成後持股約30.08%，成為最大股東；國創半導體為國巨與鴻海合資平台，後續國巨持股55%、鴻海持股45%，因此富鼎兼具國巨通路與鴻海車用／伺服器／電源生態系資源。員工規模未能由可讀官方年報文字精確確認；公開徵才平台資料約百餘人，Yes123列108人，部分搜尋摘要列約140人，應視為外部平台口徑。

Business

富鼎屬Fabless／輕資產功率半導體設計公司，核心產品為低壓、中壓、高壓MOSFET，並提供IGBT、Power IC、Super Junction、SiC Schottky Barrier Diode、SiC HV MOSFET等產品或解決方案。產品功能為電源開關、電能轉換、整流、逆變、穩壓、馬達驅動與保護，應用涵蓋切換式電源供應器（SPS）、伺服器與AI伺服器散熱風扇（DC Fan）、個人電腦／筆電／平板、顯示器、消費電子、通訊設備、工業、車用電子、電池管理與新能源。2024年度官方營業概況列示營業淨額新台幣2,918,407千元，其中低壓MOSFET約1,217,456千元、約41.7%；中壓MOSFET約945,235千元、約32.4%；高壓MOSFET約692,400千元、約23.7%；其他約63,316千元、約2.2%。2026年第一季法說資料顯示營收新台幣781,527千元，年增9.2%，毛利率38.1%，營益率25.7%，EPS 1.57元；產品別比重約低壓52%、中壓34%、高壓12%、其他約2%。應用別方面，2026年第一季SPS營收321,729千元、占41%，DC Fan營收273,054千元、占35%，Computing營收87,449千元、占11%，其餘為Display與Others。商業模式以自行設計功率元件、委外晶圓代工與封裝測試、以APEC品牌及通路銷售給電源供應器、散熱風扇、PC、顯示器、工業與車用電子客戶為主。公司近年由傳統PC與一般電源供應器應用，轉向伺服器電源、高壓MOSFET與高規格散熱風扇等較高毛利應用。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年主要成長動能可分為四類。第一，AI伺服器與資料中心電力架構升級：市場報導與公司法說均指向SPS與高壓MOSFET需求升溫，AI資料中心由傳統低壓架構走向400VDC、800VDC或更高效率供電，對高耐壓、低損耗、高效率MOSFET與Super Junction需求增加；富鼎長期布局高壓MOSFET，2026年SPS仍為最大應用別。第二，伺服器散熱風扇與馬達驅動：2025至2026年DC Fan營收高速成長，2026年第一季DC Fan年增111%、占營收35%，主要受AI伺服器功耗提升、風扇規格升級、BLDC馬達驅動與散熱需求拉動。第三，產品組合升級：低壓、中壓、高壓MOSFET仍是營收主體，但公司官網產品線已納入SiC SBD、SiC HV MOSFET、IGBT與Power IC；若能在高功率SPS、車用、儲能、新能源與工業市場取得設計導入，ASP與毛利率有機會維持較佳水準。第四，國巨／鴻海／國創半導體策略資源：國巨可補強全球通路與車用客戶接觸，鴻海可提供電動車、伺服器、電源與電子製造服務場景，有利於富鼎擴大終端市場。主要風險包括：MOSFET屬競爭激烈且全球IDM龍頭高度主導的市場，Infineon、Vishay、ST、Nexperia等國際大廠具規模與技術優勢；PC、顯示器與消費電子復甦不確定，2026年第一季Computing營收年減51%；AI伺服器供應鏈導入時程、客戶認證與實際出貨可能落後市場預期；高壓與SiC產品需要可靠度、良率、封裝與長週期認證；若晶圓代工、封裝或關鍵原物料價格上升，毛利率可能受壓；公司客戶名稱多未公開，對單一應用或供應鏈轉換的依賴度仍需持續觀察。2027至2028年展望屬推估：若AI資料中心HVDC、液冷與高功率電源架構持續滲透，富鼎可望受惠於高壓MOSFET、SPS與DC Fan含量提升；但若國際IDM或中國本土功率元件廠加速降價競爭，成長與毛利率將面臨壓力。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 力積電 6770 晶圓代工供應商；MoneyDJ列示富鼎重要原物料／晶圓代工來源包含力晶積成電子，現為力積電，屬台股上市公司。
  • 茂矽 2342 晶圓代工供應商；MoneyDJ列示富鼎晶圓代工來源包含茂矽，屬台股上市公司。
  • 捷敏-KY 6525 封裝產能供應商；MoneyDJ列示富鼎封裝產能來源包含捷敏科，屬台股上市櫃公司。
  • 國創半導體 最大股東與策略平台；未上市。由國巨與鴻海合資，參與富鼎私募並提供半導體布局、通路與車用／電源資源。
  • 國巨 2327 透過國創半導體間接為策略股東與通路資源方；本身為台股上市被動元件大廠。
  • 鴻海 2317 透過國創半導體間接為策略股東與系統應用資源方；可能連結伺服器、EV與電源供應鏈，屬台股上市公司。
Downstream
  • 台系電源供應器客戶（未具名） 下游SPS／電源供應器應用客戶；新聞與法說指出SPS為主要成長動能，但公司未公開逐一客戶名稱。
  • 伺服器散熱風扇客戶（未具名） 下游DC Fan與馬達驅動應用客戶；2026年第一季DC Fan占營收35%、年增111%，客戶名稱未公開。
  • PC、NB、顯示器與消費電子客戶（未具名） 下游Computing、Display與消費電子應用；公司官網列應用包含桌機、筆電、平板、顯示器、智慧手機、遊戲機、機上盒等，具體客戶未公開。
  • 車用電子與新能源客戶（未具名） 潛在下游應用；公司產品可用於車用通風、雨刷、電動窗、車內影音、燈光控制、DC/DC轉換器、電池管理與新能源，具體客戶未公開。
  • 鴻海 2317 策略股東生態系與潛在下游場景；鴻海新聞稿稱富鼎可藉鴻海EV事業與國巨通路進入車用市場，但未等同確認直接營收客戶。

Competitors

  • 大中 6435 台股上櫃功率半導體／MOSFET同業，MoneyDJ列為富鼎電晶體競爭者。
  • 尼克森 3317 台股上櫃MOSFET與功率元件同業，MoneyDJ列為競爭者。
  • 力士 4923 台股上市櫃功率半導體同業，MoneyDJ列為競爭者。
  • 廣閎科 6693 台股上櫃電源管理IC／功率元件相關同業，MoneyDJ列為競爭者。
  • 強茂 2481 台股上市功率元件與整流二極體廠，與富鼎在功率元件、AI電源題材有部分競合。
  • 德微 3675 台股上櫃分離式元件與二極體廠，與功率元件供應鏈部分競爭。
  • Vishay 美國上市國際功率元件大廠；MoneyDJ列為競爭者。
  • Infineon 德國上市功率半導體龍頭，MOSFET、IGBT、車用與工業功率元件具全球規模優勢。
  • Nexperia 荷蘭／中國聞泰科技旗下功率與分離式元件業者；非台股掛牌，MoneyDJ列為競爭者。
  • STMicroelectronics 歐洲上市IDM，功率MOSFET、IGBT、SiC與車用半導體為主要競爭來源之一。
Sources（18）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.