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8299

群聯 Semiconductor As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

strong quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 群聯 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 32Quality 98Growth 97Momentum 86Chips 14

Is 群聯 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Top-tier profitability.Operating margin beats ~96% of the market. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 22.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 50th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 88th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -3.8% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 301.2%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bearish -0.46
BearishNeutralBullish

Distribution to retail — bearish

  • Distribution to retail — bearish
  • 國泰-敦南 holds 1,241 lots
  • sellers have 536 lots left, ~56 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +18% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 國泰-敦南 has accumulated 1,241 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 凱基-士林 peaked at 766 lots, has sold 54%, 349 left, paused recently.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders -10.15pp, mid holders -12, retail +13.59pp — drifting down to retail.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -18,515 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
國泰-敦南凱基-中港香港上海匯豐第一金-新竹兆豐-松德大和國泰
Distributing
凱基-士林新光花旗環球國票-敦北法人中國信託群益金鼎-大安
Desks
own scale
摩根大通元大證券富邦證券新加坡商瑞銀
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 國泰-敦南 +1,241
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 凱基-中港 +992
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 香港上海匯豐 +779
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 第一金-新竹 +616
    sold 3%· still adding
  • 兆豐-松德 +473
    sold 0%
  • 大和國泰 +379
    sold 8%

Distributing

  • 凱基-士林 349 left
    sold 54%· paused recently
  • 新光 433 left
    sold 25%· paused recently
  • 花旗環球 87 left
    sold 83%· ~4 sessions to clear
  • 國票-敦北法人 50 left
    sold 87%· paused recently
  • 中國信託 198 left
    sold 45%· ~16 sessions to clear
  • 群益金鼎-大安 99 left
    sold 68%· paused recently

Desks

  • 摩根大通 -4,996
    hedge desk · will cover
  • 元大證券 -4,183
    unclassified
  • 富邦證券 -3,745
    unclassified
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 -3,654
    hedge desk · will cover
Still selling 536 lots ~56 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +1,142 absorbed / -556 sold buyers slightly ahead
Hedge-desk net short -16,970 lots potential cover-buying, not selling pressure
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Weak direction: big-holder share fell while retail share rose.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 301.22%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

94 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 48.5%, Sample 68, Median -0.61%, Excess -0.84%, Beat mkt rate 42.6%；60-day: Win 40.9%, Sample 66, Median -7.43%, Excess -1.07%, Beat mkt rate 33.3%；120-day: Win 38.1%, Sample 63, Median -7.26%, Excess -3.8%, Beat mkt rate 30.2%

120 days after: historical avg +4.33%

20-day +0.77%
60-day +3.32%
120-day +4.33%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48.5%
40.9%
38.1%
Sample
68
66
63
Median
-0.61%
-7.43%
-7.26%
Excess
-0.84%
-1.07%
-3.8%
Beat mkt rate
42.6%
33.3%
30.2%

Over 63 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 4.33%, lagged the market by 3.8 pts; win rate 38.1%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 1308+25.1% +23.1% 77.8% +11.6%
20-40 592+26.7% +9.6% 75.3% +13.2%
40-60 321+42.9% +8.5% 72% +26.1%
60-80 334+50.4% +2.5% 63.8% +29%
80-100 You are here469+19.8% -1.7% 48.2% -5.3%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 22.29, at the 88.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+16%
Win rate 67.5% Excess +7.1%
801d
-0.8%
Win rate 43.9% Excess -5.7%
399d
Now
+25.8%
Win rate 48.9% Excess +11.9%
671d
60-day momentum down
+12.7%
Win rate 66.3% Excess +6.4%
929d
+8.6%
Win rate 61.4% Excess +7.1%
202d
+64.4%
Win rate 55.6% Excess +49.8%
142d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 671 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 25.8%, win rate 48.9%, beat the market by 11.9%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.12%, win rate 55.6%, beating the market by +2.74 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

62 times historically; 60-day forward avg +7.96%, win rate 59.7%, beating the market by +2.91 pts on average.

What does 群聯 do? Company profile

半導體業；IC設計、NAND Flash控制晶片與儲存解決方案 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

8299 對應證券為群聯電子股份有限公司，為台灣櫃買中心上櫃普通股。公司成立於 2000/11/08，上櫃日期為 2004/12/06；總公司登記地址為新竹縣竹北市復興一街251號10樓之6，主要營運據點與分公司在苗栗縣竹南鎮群義路1號及周邊廠區。董事長為顏暐駩，總經理為馬中迅，創辦人暨執行長為潘健成。依公司年報與櫃買中心資料，主要經營業務為 IC 設計業、半導體業、電腦及週邊設備業；截至 2026 年第一季，股本約新台幣 2,210,857,000 元，已發行普通股 221,085,747 股。員工規模依 2025 年報截至 2026/03/31 合併主體共 5,056 人，平均年齡 35.37 歲，平均服務年資 5.86 年。主要股東名單依 2025 年報 2026/03/29 資料，包括第一商業銀行受託保管鎧俠株式會社投資專戶 8.97%、花旗台灣受託保管挪威中央銀行外部經理人紐伯格伯曼歐洲有限公司投資專戶 3.03%、潘健成 2.61%、楊俊勇 2.06%、花旗台灣託管新加坡政府投資專戶 1.87%、新制勞工退休基金 1.75%、渣打託管瑞穗證券投資專戶 1.47%、匯豐託管摩根士丹利國際有限公司投資專戶 1.19%、珵合投資 1.13%、渣打託管先進星光基金系列基金先進總合國際股票指數基金投資專戶 1.12%。

Business

群聯是全球 NAND Flash 控制晶片與 NAND 儲存解決方案供應商，業務涵蓋 IP 技術授權、控制晶片設計、韌體與系統架構、儲存模組整合、成品與客製化解決方案。主要產品包括 SSD 控制晶片與模組、企業級 SSD、PCIe/SATA/PATA SSD、eMMC、UFS、SD/microSD 記憶卡、USB 控制晶片與儲存產品、車用與工控儲存、Redriver/Retimer 高速傳輸晶片，以及 aiDAPTIV 與 AI Data Platform 等 AI 儲存/邊緣 AI 方案。2025 年營收結構依年報為：快閃記憶體模組產品新台幣 526.19 億元、占 72.41%；控制晶片 139.94 億元、占 19.26%；積體電路 33.83 億元、占 4.66%；其他 26.68 億元、占 3.67%；合計 726.64 億元。銷售區域以亞洲為主，2025 年亞洲營收 572.41 億元，美洲 138.82 億元，歐洲 15.17 億元，澳洲及其他占比較小。商業模式兼具 IC 設計與系統/模組解決方案，控制晶片可銷售給 NAND 原廠與品牌客戶，模組產品則透過台灣與海外通路銷往歐美日等品牌客戶與系統整合廠；公司年報揭露 2024、2025 年沒有單一銷售客戶占銷貨總額 10% 以上。終端應用涵蓋消費電子、PC、AI PC、智慧手機、平板、遊戲、車用電子、工控、資料中心、企業級伺服器、主權 AI、Agentic AI、RAG 與邊緣 AI。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 年群聯受惠 AI 伺服器、企業級 SSD、AI PC、行動裝置與 NAND 供需改善，全年合併營收新台幣 726.64 億元、年增 23.3%，稅後淨利約 87 億元，EPS 41.98 元。2026 年截至 5 月，官方月營收資料顯示累計營收 840.02 億元、年增 229.02%，5 月單月營收 228.28 億元、年增 301.23%，反映 AI 推論、企業級 SSD 與 NAND 供需緊俏帶來的高成長。2025-2028 的主要成長動能包括：一、AI 從訓練走向推論與 Agentic AI，資料保存、RAG、主權 AI、企業 AI 對高容量、高效能、高耐久企業級 SSD 的需求增加；二、Pascari 企業級 SSD、AI Data Platform、HCI 軟體與 aiDAPTIV 記憶體延伸技術，有助於群聯從 NAND 控制晶片供應商轉型為 AI 儲存基礎架構與邊緣 AI 運算平台供應商；三、與 Intel 合作將 aiDAPTIV 導入 Intel AI PC 平台，可在地端 AI 工作負載中以 NAND Flash 延伸記憶體，支援更大型 MoE 模型與 AI Agent 應用；四、PCIe Gen5/未來 Gen6 SSD 控制晶片、UFS 4.x、USB 4.0、SD Express、車規 eMMC/UFS/BGA SSD、Redriver/Retimer 等產品線升級；五、資料中心、AI PC、車用、工控與高階行動裝置帶動非消費型與高附加價值產品比重提升。公司 2026 年計畫開發高端企業級 SSD、更高容量省電控制晶片、車規控制晶片、PC/伺服器/車載 Redriver/Retimer IC 與進化版邊緣 AI 方案。中長期風險包括 NAND 價格循環與庫存評價波動、NAND 原廠供給策略改變、快閃記憶體由海外大廠掌控造成採購與地緣政治風險、AI 需求若不如預期可能導致高價庫存與產品組合壓力、控制晶片與模組競爭者增加、匯率與海外可轉債稀釋風險、車規與企業級產品認證週期較長，以及主要先進晶圓代工與封測產能取得風險。2027-2028 年展望屬推估：若 AI 推論與邊緣 AI 持續擴散，群聯企業級 SSD、AI 記憶體延伸與高階控制晶片可望維持成長；但 NAND 若大幅擴產或 AI 資本支出放緩，營收與毛利率可能回到較明顯循環。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 鎧俠／台灣鎧俠 主要 NAND Flash 供應商與策略股東；年報揭露 2025 年台灣鎧俠占群聯進貨額 28.33%，KIOXIA 為日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • 美光科技 Micron Technology NAND、DDR 等記憶體供應商及控制晶片客戶；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • SK hynix／台灣愛思開海力士 NAND Flash、DDR 與系統產品供應商；韓國上市集團與台灣子公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 台積電 2330 控制晶片晶圓代工供應商；年報列為控制晶片主要供應廠商之一。
  • 聯電集團 2303 控制晶片、電源管理晶片與高速晶片之晶圓代工/供應相關廠商；年報列為主要供應廠商之一。
  • 志超科技 8213 印刷電路板供應商；年報列為 PCB 主要供應廠商之一。
  • 健鼎科技 3044 印刷電路板供應商；年報列為 PCB 主要供應廠商之一。
  • 格羅方德 GlobalFoundries 電源管理晶片、高速晶片相關供應商；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 微星科技 2377 年報列為系統產品等主要供應廠商之一；同時亦可能為 AI PC/硬體生態系夥伴。
  • 艾睿電子 Arrow Electronics 電子材料/通路相關供應商；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 荃立精密 外殼、電子材料等供應商；未確認台股上市櫃。
  • 岩督科技 外殼、電子材料等供應商；未確認台股上市櫃。
Downstream
  • 鎧俠 KIOXIA 控制晶片銷售客戶與策略夥伴；日本企業，非台股掛牌。
  • Kingston 金士頓 年報列為控制晶片銷售對象之一；美國未上市品牌廠，非台股掛牌。
  • 美光科技 Micron Technology 年報列為控制晶片銷售對象之一；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 華碩 2357 COMPUTEX 2026 新聞稿提及 aiDAPTIV 展示含 ASUS 硬體平台合作成果；屬 AI PC/邊緣 AI 生態系下游夥伴。
  • 微星科技 2377 COMPUTEX 2026 新聞稿提及 MSI 硬體平台合作成果；屬 AI PC/邊緣 AI 生態系下游夥伴。
  • 宏碁 2353 COMPUTEX 2026 新聞稿提及 Acer 硬體平台合作成果；屬 AI PC/邊緣 AI 生態系下游夥伴。
  • Intel 群聯與 Intel 合作將 aiDAPTIV 導入 Intel AI PC 平台；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • 歐美日品牌客戶與系統整合廠 年報揭露 NAND 模組產品銷售予美國、歐洲、日本等品牌客戶與系統整合廠，但未逐一揭露名稱。
  • Tier-1 企業伺服器廠商／資料中心客戶 年報提及美國科羅拉多研發中心就近服務 Tier-1 企業伺服器客戶；具體客戶名稱未揭露。

Competitors

  • 慧榮科技 Silicon Motion NAND Flash 控制晶片主要競爭者；美國 NASDAQ 上市，非台股掛牌。
  • 點序科技 6485 年報列為記憶體控制晶片主要供應商之一，屬台股上櫃 IC 設計同業。
  • 智微科技 年報列為記憶體控制晶片主要供應商之一，屬台股上櫃 IC 設計同業。
  • 創見資訊 2451 國內快閃記憶體模組與儲存品牌同業，年報列為模組產品競爭廠商之一。
  • 宇瞻科技 8271 國內記憶體模組、工控與儲存產品同業，年報列為模組產品競爭廠商之一。
  • 威剛科技 3260 國內記憶體模組與儲存品牌同業，年報列為模組產品競爭廠商之一。
  • 廣穎電通 4973 國內儲存產品品牌與模組同業，年報列為模組產品競爭廠商之一。
  • 十銓科技 4967 台股上市記憶體模組與儲存產品同業，與群聯部分消費與工控儲存產品競爭。
  • 宜鼎國際 5289 台股上櫃工控記憶體與工業儲存模組同業，與群聯工控/嵌入式儲存部分競爭。
  • Samsung Electronics 全球 NAND 原廠、eMMC/UFS/SSD 與儲存產品競爭者；韓國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • Micron Technology 全球 NAND 原廠、SSD 與儲存產品競爭者；美國上市公司，非台股掛牌。
  • KIOXIA 全球 NAND 原廠與儲存產品競爭者，同時為群聯供應商與策略股東；非台股掛牌。
Sources（12）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.