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8905

裕國 Other As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

1 active signal
Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 裕國 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 50Quality 37Growth 76Momentum 18Chips 3

Is 裕國 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 42th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 0.6%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 77th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 93th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net selling.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ -10.3% of volume (net sell).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 33.1%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.53
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 群益金鼎-彰化 holds 824 lots
  • sellers have 85 lots left, ~32 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price -8% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 群益金鼎-彰化 has accumulated 824 lots since the start (sold 0%), holding.
  • Main distributor 元大-府城 peaked at 321 lots, has sold 74%, 82 left, ~32 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.32pp, mid holders -1, retail -2.85pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -17 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
群益金鼎-彰化富邦-北港元大證券凱基-文心新光元富-台南
Distributing
元大-府城台新證券群益金鼎-大甲中國信託-中壢元富-大裕元大-斗信
Desks
own scale
富邦-台北玉山-新莊元大-歸仁臺銀-金山
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 群益金鼎-彰化 +824
    sold 0%
  • 富邦-北港 +378
    sold 0%
  • 元大證券 +315
    sold 1%
  • 凱基-文心 +299
    sold 0%
  • 新光 +235
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元富-台南 +177
    sold 1%

Distributing

  • 元大-府城 82 left
    sold 74%· ~32 sessions to clear
  • 台新證券 44 left
    sold 71%· paused recently
  • 群益金鼎-大甲 9 left
    sold 85%· paused recently
  • 中國信託-中壢 6 left
    sold 82%· paused recently
  • 元富-大裕 18 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 元大-斗信 14 left
    sold 42%· paused recently

Desks

  • 富邦-台北 -465
    unclassified
  • 玉山-新莊 -254
    unclassified
  • 元大-歸仁 -83
    unclassified
  • 臺銀-金山 -83
    unclassified
Still selling 85 lots ~32 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +20 absorbed / -29 sold sellers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 33.09%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

78 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 57.1%, Sample 70, Median +1%, Excess +1.42%, Beat mkt rate 42.9%；60-day: Win 69.6%, Sample 69, Median +4.92%, Excess +3.17%, Beat mkt rate 53.6%；120-day: Win 65.2%, Sample 69, Median +6.47%, Excess -0.35%, Beat mkt rate 43.5%

120 days after: historical avg +10.38%

20-day +4.01%
60-day +9.93%
120-day +10.38%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
57.1%
69.6%
65.2%
Sample
70
69
69
Median
+1%
+4.92%
+6.47%
Excess
+1.42%
+3.17%
-0.35%
Beat mkt rate
42.9%
53.6%
43.5%

Over 69 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 10.38%, lagged the market by 0.35 pts; win rate 65.2%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 764+1.3% -0.2% 49.6% -7.4%
20-40 493+6.7% +2.7% 74.8% -3.6%
40-60 424+5.4% +4.9% 58% -12.9%
60-80 698+15.8% +10.1% 81.1% -11.1%
80-100 You are here465+30.7% +31% 92.9% +5%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 54.27, at the 93.1th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+3.8%
Win rate 57% Excess -0.6%
530d
+0.5%
Win rate 67.5% Excess -10.5%
416d
+9.8%
Win rate 67.1% Excess -1.8%
773d
60-day momentum down
+2.7%
Win rate 40% Excess -0.7%
530d
+0.3%
Win rate 68% Excess -7%
275d
Now
+18.3%
Win rate 78.3% Excess +2.7%
415d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum down”: across 415 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 18.3%, win rate 78.3%, beat the market by 2.7%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

252-day price high (breakout)

Pending

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.14%, win rate 46.4%, beating the market by -4.55 pts on average.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

28 times historically; 60-day forward avg -0.11%, win rate 50%, beating the market by -2.94 pts on average.

What does 裕國 do? Company profile

其他業；冷凍冷藏倉儲、食品加工與進口貿易、冷鏈物流、營建 櫃買中心上櫃

Overview

裕國冷凍冷藏股份有限公司成立於1990年5月30日，1996年1月31日於櫃買中心上櫃，總部位於台中市西屯區工業二路3號。公司英文簡稱為ECS，統一編號23641978，股本為新台幣11.944億元，已發行普通股119,440,000股。公開資料顯示董事長為楊育偉，總經理為楊盛昌。公司定位為台灣大型低溫倉儲與冷鏈整合業者，據公司官網自述為台灣規模最大、專業的低溫倉儲公司，業務涵蓋進口、倉儲、運輸、加工、生產、物流、通路一條龍服務。113年年報揭露員工人數為267人，114年4月30日為255人。114年4月22日前十大股東包括德霖投資14.36%、德昌國際投資10.00%、裕立投資9.70%、久裕國際投資9.33%、德昌食品7.94%、楊得根5.32%、楊德華3.62%、裕鵬物流3.45%、程泰機械3.34%、致遠投資2.81%。另程泰機械於2026年公開收購裕國普通股，公開報導稱收購後合計持股約17.5228%，且不排除持續收購，顯示經營權與股權結構為近期重要觀察點。

Business

裕國主要業務為冷凍冷藏庫租賃、低溫物流配送、冷凍冷藏蔬菜及肉品進口銷售、冷凍肉品與醬類/調理食品加工、以及住宅與商業大樓開發銷售。113年度營收為新台幣2,049,791千元，營收結構為商品銷售1,545,045千元占75%、冷凍冷藏租賃收入352,547千元占17%、物流收入148,866千元占8%、營建收入3,333千元占0%。公司冷凍肉品主要自美國、澳洲、紐西蘭、巴拉圭等國進口，冷凍蔬品與薯製品主要來自比利時、荷蘭等歐洲地區及本地農產品；113年主要進貨來源包含CARGILL、SWIFT-USA、TYSON、TEYS，其中CARGILL占進貨淨額29%、SWIFT-USA占21%、TYSON占16%、TEYS占13%，無任一銷貨客戶占銷貨總額10%以上。倉儲據點涵蓋台中總部、林口、五股、新北、仁武等低溫倉儲；五股廠為自動低溫倉儲，仁武廠服務南區冷凍冷藏與物流配送。食品加工以南投廠為核心，具HACCP與ISO 22000認證，從事牛肉加工、罐頭、醬類、熟食、冷凍調理產品、餐飲/團膳/連鎖餐廳代工與自有品牌銷售。商業模式為進口採購、倉儲出租、低溫配送、加工代工、自有品牌與通路銷售、以及持有土地適時開發建案。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025至2028年展望以冷鏈本業擴張與營建低基期為兩條主線。成長動能方面，台灣冷凍食品產量與產值近年上升，113年冷凍冷藏食品總產量971,824公噸、年增6.3%，總產值1,064億元，顯示冷凍肉類、水產、蔬果與即食/調理食品仍受消費習慣、便利性與小家庭需求支撐；裕國具進口、低溫倉儲、物流、食品加工與通路整合能力，若岡山新凍庫、物流車隊、南投/草屯輕加工廠房規劃與自有品牌通路推進順利，2025至2028年冷鏈與食品加工收入可望較營建收入更具穩定性。公司年報揭露短期計畫包括高雄岡山租地興建可容納萬板之倉儲凍庫，已於113年第一季動工；裕鵬物流持續購置物流車輛；汰換老舊機台，以CO2冷媒取代R22冷媒系統；中長期規劃興建草屯手工藝產業園區輕加工作業廠房，並適時評估自有營建用地推案。2026年前5月營收公開資訊顯示累計營收約9.15億元、年增約11.78%，短期營運有回升跡象，但仍需追蹤全年商品銷售毛利與凍庫利用率。風險與挑戰包括進口肉品價格與供給波動、美元匯率、冷鏈能源與碳排成本、人力短缺、食安事件、冷凍設備資本支出回收期、房市信用管制與房地合一/囤房稅等政策、營建料工成本、以及2026年程泰公開收購後可能引發的經營權與董事改選變化。2028以前若冷鏈需求持續成長且新凍庫達到高利用率，本業可望改善營收品質；若肉品行情反轉、進口成本上升或新產能利用率不如預期，獲利波動仍高。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • CARGILL 113年度主要進貨來源之一，占進貨淨額29%；非台股掛牌，屬國際農畜產品與食品原料供應商。
  • SWIFT-USA 113年度主要進貨來源之一，占進貨淨額21%；非台股掛牌，為美國肉品供應來源。
  • TYSON 113年度主要進貨來源之一，占進貨淨額16%；美國上市肉品公司，非台股掛牌。
  • TEYS 113年度主要進貨來源之一，占進貨淨額13%；非台股掛牌，屬澳洲牛肉供應鏈業者。
  • 比利時、荷蘭等歐洲冷凍蔬品與薯製品供應商 冷凍蔬品、薯製品主要進口來源之一；年報未揭露具體上市櫃公司名稱。
  • 本地農產品供應商 冷凍蔬品原料來源之一；多為非上市或未具名供應商。
  • 營造廠、建材、鋼鐵、水泥、水電與土地仲介業者 營建事業上游，年報以產業類別揭露，未列具體台股供應商。
Downstream
  • 盤商、餐廳、市場肉販與終端消費者 牛肉與冷凍食品銷售下游；公司年報稱無任一銷貨客戶占銷貨總額10%以上，故未揭露主要客戶名稱。
  • 團膳、連鎖餐廳、機關團體與食品代工客戶 南投食品加工廠服務對象，公司官網揭露提供食材、菜單與加工代工；未揭露具名上市櫃客戶。
  • 裕の精肉鋪／768吃肉吧 公司自有生鮮門市、線上購物平台與調理包品牌，屬自有通路與終端銷售。
  • 冷凍冷藏倉儲租賃客戶 使用裕國北中南冷凍冷藏倉庫與低溫物流配送服務之食品、通路或進出口業者；未揭露具名客戶。
  • 購屋大眾與大樓管理服務相關業者 營建業務下游，主要為住宅、店面、商業大樓買方及後續管理/仲介/裝潢服務鏈。

Competitors

  • 嘉里大榮物流 2608 MoneyDJ列為倉儲、物流事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
  • 統一企業 1216 MoneyDJ列為食品事業競爭者，台股上市公司，食品與通路規模較裕國大。
  • 裕賀食品 MoneyDJ列為食品事業競爭者；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 豪揚食品 MoneyDJ列為食品事業競爭者；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 美福食集／美福相關企業 MoneyDJ列為食品事業競爭者；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 新東陽 MoneyDJ列為食品事業競爭者；未確認為台股上市櫃公司。
  • 潤隆建設 1808 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
  • 國泰建設 2501 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
  • 太子建設 2511 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
  • 冠德建設 2520 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
  • 櫻花建設 2539 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
  • 興富發 2542 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
  • 遠雄建設 5522 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
  • 順天建設 5525 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上櫃公司。
  • 鄉林建設 5531 MoneyDJ列為營建事業競爭者，台股上市公司。
Sources（15）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.