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1303

南亞 Plastics As of 2026-06-17 Updated daily after market close

steady quality, fair valuation.

2 active signals
252d high Revenue ≥20%
This page refreshes daily after the close. Add 南亞 to your watchlist to track signal changes on your next visit.
Valuation 30Quality 61Growth 74Momentum 95Chips 94

Is 南亞 a buy? Fundamentals and valuation first

  • Above-average profitability.Operating margin is in the 47th market percentile. Latest quarterly ROE ≈ 3.8%.

  • Valuation is neutral.PE is in the 78th market percentile; within its own history, PE is around the 83th percentile.

  • Foreign investors are net buying.Foreign 20-day net flow ≈ 13.6% of volume (net buy).

  • Strong revenue growth.Latest monthly revenue YoY ≈ 31.4%, above the 20% growth threshold.

  • Signals are active now.On the latest data, signals such as 252-day price high, Revenue YoY ≥ 20% are active — see the historical forward returns after each occurrence below.

Chip flow

Bullish +0.84
BearishNeutralBullish

Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish

  • Single-sided accumulation, concentration rising — bullish
  • 台灣摩根士丹利 holds 71,775 lots
  • sellers have 66,788 lots left, ~35 sessions to clear

Window from 2026-01-17 · Price +59% · branches to 2026-06-17· TDCC to 2026-06-12

  • Largest holder 台灣摩根士丹利 has accumulated 71,775 lots since the start (sold 0%), still adding.
  • Main distributor 摩根大通 peaked at 77,732 lots, has sold 27%, 56,777 left, ~32 sessions to clear at the recent pace.
  • TDCC big holders (absolute) >1000-lot holders +3.07pp, mid holders +20, retail -3.05pp — concentration shifting upward.
  • Foreign hedge-desk net short Net short -8,965 lots (inferred from branch profile, mostly hedging — not necessarily bearish, not case-confirmed).
Branch inventory reconstruction
Accumulating holders Branches that accumulated shares during the window and still hold positive inventory; they are the absorbing side.
Distributing sellers Branches that built inventory earlier and have been selling it down; the remaining number estimates what has not cleared.
Net-short desks Trading-desk branches with negative inventory or net selling, often hedge, offsetting, or short-term flow. It is not automatically a bearish view.
Accumulating
台灣摩根士丹利美商高盛元大證券新加坡商瑞銀美林凱基-台北
Distributing
摩根大通花旗環球港商麥格理統一富邦證券凱基
Desks
own scale
第一金-忠孝永豐金證券凱基-站前國票-敦北法人
Price Accumulating & Distributing share one scale (comparable); Desks is independent. Zero is the baseline
Branch details Unit: lots

Accumulating

  • 台灣摩根士丹利 +71,775
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美商高盛 +66,951
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 元大證券 +61,762
    sold 14%
  • 新加坡商瑞銀 +58,458
    sold 0%· still adding
  • 美林 +40,042
    sold 15%
  • 凱基-台北 +35,931
    sold 8%

Distributing

  • 摩根大通 56,777 left
    sold 27%· ~32 sessions to clear
  • 花旗環球 8,819 left
    sold 36%· paused recently
  • 港商麥格理 6,732 left
    sold 45%· paused recently
  • 統一 1,212 left
    sold 89%· paused recently
  • 富邦證券 4,163 left
    sold 59%· ~13 sessions to clear
  • 凱基 5,474 left
    sold 37%· paused recently

Desks

  • 第一金-忠孝 -41,028
    unclassified
  • 永豐金證券 -13,622
    unclassified
  • 凱基-站前 -9,924
    unclassified
  • 國票-敦北法人 -9,811
    unclassified
Still selling 66,788 lots ~35 sessions to bottom at most
Recent buy/sell force +101,406 absorbed / -24,942 sold buyers slightly ahead
TDCC big holders · absolute-holding cross-check
>1000-lot holder share Retail (<400 lots) share Price (right axis)

Direction matches: big-holder share rose while retail share fell.

Describes chip flow, not investment advice. Branch data discloses only high-volume branches with ~1-day lag; TDCC is weekly. Inventory is a relative reconstruction from the window start, not absolute holdings.

Historical evidence

Signals active now

These signals are true on the latest data, with this stock's own historical forward-return stats after each occurrence.

252-day price high (breakout)

Active

Adjusted close makes a new 252-day high; repeats within 20 days counted once.

32 historical occurrences (since 2009-09-15)
Average forward return after 252-day price high (breakout)。20-day: Win 48.4%, Sample 31, Median -0.31%, Excess +0.31%, Beat mkt rate 38.7%；60-day: Win 64.5%, Sample 31, Median +1.57%, Excess -0.14%, Beat mkt rate 41.9%；120-day: Win 62.1%, Sample 29, Median +6.57%, Excess +1.73%, Beat mkt rate 48.3%

120 days after: historical avg +5.26%

20-day +1.12%
60-day +3.46%
120-day +5.26%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
48.4%
64.5%
62.1%
Sample
31
31
29
Median
-0.31%
+1.57%
+6.57%
Excess
+0.31%
-0.14%
+1.73%
Beat mkt rate
38.7%
41.9%
48.3%

Over 29 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 5.26%, beat the market by 1.73 pts; win rate 62.1%.

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)

Active · now 31.35%

Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%; event date is the first trading day after the filing deadline (no look-ahead).

48 historical occurrences (since 2007-04-23)
Average forward return after Monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20% (from filing deadline)。20-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 42, Median +2.45%, Excess +1.49%, Beat mkt rate 61.9%；60-day: Win 61.9%, Sample 42, Median +3.3%, Excess +1.27%, Beat mkt rate 57.1%；120-day: Win 52.4%, Sample 42, Median +1.07%, Excess +3.27%, Beat mkt rate 52.4%

120 days after: historical avg +2.63%

20-day +2.18%
60-day +2.39%
120-day +2.63%
20-day
60-day
120-day
Win
61.9%
61.9%
52.4%
Sample
42
42
42
Median
+2.45%
+3.3%
+1.07%
Excess
+1.49%
+1.27%
+3.27%
Beat mkt rate
61.9%
57.1%
52.4%

Over 42 occurrences, 120-day forward avg gained 2.63%, beat the market by 3.27 pts; win rate 52.4%.

Valuation regime and subsequent returns

Each day's PE is converted to its own-history percentile (as of that day), then we look at adjusted-close returns over the next 240 trading days by valuation regime.

PE percentile bandSample days240-day avg returnMedianWin rateAvg excess (vs index)
0-20 904+3.1% +0.7% 52.5% -2.4%
20-40 408+1.4% -4.3% 40.7% -9.9%
40-60 477+3.9% +1% 54.9% -3.5%
60-80 408+8.4% +10.8% 69.1% -17.1%
80-100 You are here617+6.5% -8.7% 49.8% -27.2%

Percentiles use an expanding own-history window (no look-ahead); forward return is 240 trading days on adjusted close. Sample days overlap; distribution is indicative only.

Current PE ≈ 54.76, at the 83.4th percentile of its own history (80-100 band).

Valuation × momentum historical grid

Every day in its own history is bucketed by valuation tercile (own-history PE) and 60-day momentum sign into six cells; we show adjusted-close returns over the next 120 trading days per cell.

Valuation
Momentum
Cheap (own-history bottom 1/3)
Mid
Expensive (own-history top 1/3)
60-day momentum up
+1.1%
Win rate 56.6% Excess -1.9%
698d
-0.1%
Win rate 46.8% Excess -3.8%
504d
Now
+13.3%
Win rate 67.9% Excess -2%
433d
60-day momentum down
+7%
Win rate 77% Excess +2.2%
512d
-0.1%
Win rate 56.3% Excess -4.3%
190d
+7%
Win rate 32.7% Excess -12.1%
597d

Currently in “Expensive (own-history top 1/3) × 60-day momentum up”: across 433 historical days, 120-day forward avg gained 13.3%, win rate 67.9%, lagged the market by 2%.

Days = trading days in this bucket; returns use adjusted prices, ex-costs. 60-day momentum: direction of this stock's price over the past 60 trading days.

Does this signal hold up across the market

Over the past 242 months, on average ~404 stocks per month met “monthly revenue YoY ≥ 20%”; their adjusted-close return over the next 60 trading days averaged 6.94% (equal-weighted), beating the market by 2.37 points on average, and outperformed the TAIEX total-return index in 64.5% of months.

Each month, equal-weighted 60-day forward adjusted return of all signal-matching stocks, then averaged across months; excess vs the TAIEX total-return index.

Signals not active (historical stats for reference)

These are not occurring now; historical samples shown for comparison.

Foreign net buying for 5 straight days

Pending

Foreign net flow (ex-dealer) positive for 5 straight days; event on day 5; repeats within 20 days counted once.

72 times historically; 60-day forward avg +2.37%, win rate 61.1%, beating the market by -0.81 pts on average.

What does 南亞 do? Company profile

塑膠工業；業務涵蓋塑膠加工、化工、電子材料、聚酯及機電工程 台灣證券交易所上市

Overview

1303 對應證券為南亞塑膠工業股份有限公司，為台灣證券交易所上市普通股。公司成立於 1958/8/22，上市日期為 1967/11/15，實收資本額新台幣 79,308,215,890 元，主要地址為高雄市仁武區水管路101號，台北營業所位於台北市內湖區南京東路六段390號7樓。官方公司基本資料列示董事長為吳嘉昭；鉅亨網與年報董事會資料列示總經理為鄒明仁。官方公司基本資料揭露員工人數 10,217 人；2024 年報合併口徑員工數為 2024 年底 29,108 人、2025/3/31 為 28,949 人；2026 年第一季法說資料以合併財報公司口徑列示員工 28,616 人、全球 99 個生產廠，其中台灣 57 個、中國大陸 34 個、美國 8 個。2024 年報截至 2025/4/14 的主要股東包括長庚醫療財團法人 11.05%、台灣塑膠工業 9.88%、台灣化學纖維 5.21%、長庚大學 4.00%、元大台灣高股息 ETF 2.49%、Vanson International Investment 2.39%、台塑石化 2.26%、Chindwell International Investment 1.86%、LGT Bank Singapore 1.50%、Citibank Taiwan 受託 Macro System Corp. 1.45%。南亞屬台塑企業核心公司之一，與台塑、台化、台塑石化、南亞電路板、南亞科技等存在股權、董事與供應鏈關係。

Business

南亞的營運已由早期塑膠加工擴展為多事業組合。2026 年第一季法說資料列示 2025 年主要產品營收占比為塑膠加工 14%、化工產品 22%、電子材料 46%、聚酯產品 16%；到 2026 年第一季，營收結構進一步轉向電子材料，電子材料占 52.8%、化工 16.3%、聚酯 15.6%、塑膠 13.3%、其他 2.0%。塑膠加工產品包括軟質膠布、硬質膠布、PU 合成皮、塑膠管及接頭、塑鋼門窗、膠膜、工程塑膠與 PP 合成紙；化工產品包括乙二醇 EG、雙酚 A BPA、1,4-丁二醇、可塑劑、酜酸酐 PA、異辛醇 2EH、異壬醇 INA、馬來酐等；電子材料包括玻纖絲、玻纖布、環氧樹脂、銅箔、銅箔基板 CCL、印刷電路板與 IC 載板相關材料；聚酯產品包括聚酯棉、聚酯粒、聚酯加工絲、聚酯薄膜與回收聚酯品牌 SAYA。2024 年合併營收為新台幣 2,596.08 億元，年報產品明細中印刷電路板、銅箔基板、環氧樹脂、銅箔、玻纖布與玻纖絲合計已是重要收入來源；公司商業模式為大宗化工與塑膠材料的規模化製造、台塑集團六輕與美國德州廠的上游整合、電子材料高階化，以及面向 PCB、IC 載板、AI 伺服器、高速網通、車用、電信、低軌衛星、風電、海事、醫療、建材、汽車內裝、3C 與紡織服飾等終端應用的材料供應。公司並透過南亞電路板布局 IC 載板與高階 PCB，透過南亞科技持有記憶體半導體投資收益，但南亞科技屬轉投資而非南亞本體主要產品線。

Outlook 2025–2028

2025 至 2028 年的主要成長動能集中在電子材料高階化與 AI 基礎設施需求。公司 2026 年第一季法說指出，AI 由訓練、推論、生成走向代理應用，雲端服務商加速建置 AI 基礎設施，帶動記憶體、ABF 載板及中高階電子材料用量大增，供應缺口擴大；公司電子材料產品在 2026 年第一季銷售量與價格同步成長，營收占比達 52.8%，營業利益率提升至 13.1%。成長產品包括高頻高速銅箔基板、低介電與低熱膨脹材料、玻纖絲與玻纖布、銅箔、環氧樹脂、ABF 載板相關材料及高階 IC 載板/PCB。已公告擴建計畫包括台灣聚合線改造生產共聚酯粒 36 千噸、預計 2026/7 投產；台灣離型膜第5套與第6套各增加 144,000 千平方米、預計 2026/6 投產；台灣氟系塑膠 PFA 管材 240 噸與管件 60 噸、預計 2028/1 投產；台灣電子級液態 CO2 36,000 噸、預計 2027/3 投產；中國大陸銅箔增加 23,400 噸、較當地現有 60,000 噸增加 39%，預計 2028/1 投產；中國大陸環氧樹脂增加 7,200 噸、預計 2027/3 投產；美國軟質膠布增加 14 千噸、預計 2026/6 投產。中長期機會包括 AI 伺服器與交換器升級、800G/1.6T 高速網通、高階 ABF/IC 載板、車用電子、低軌衛星、邊緣 AI 裝置、回收聚酯與低碳材料。主要風險為中國大陸塑化與化工新增產能造成價格競爭、原油與能源成本波動、地緣政治與關稅、終端消費復甦不均、電子材料客戶認證時程、貴金屬與銅價成本、匯率、環保法規與碳成本，以及南亞科技、南亞電路板、台塑石化等轉投資收益波動。

Supply Chain

Upstream
  • 台塑石化股份有限公司 6505 台塑企業關係企業，供應石化產業上游原料與能源鏈；南亞化工與塑膠材料受石化原料成本影響，且年報主要股東名單亦列台塑石化。
  • 台灣塑膠工業股份有限公司 1301 台塑企業關係企業與主要股東之一；PVC、塑膠原料與六輕上游整合為南亞塑膠加工事業的重要產業基礎。
  • 台灣化學纖維股份有限公司 1326 台塑企業關係企業與主要股東之一；芳香烴、化纖與石化中上游材料與南亞化工、聚酯及塑膠加工存在集團供應鏈互補。
  • 南中石化工業股份有限公司 南亞控制之未上市子公司，年報列示業務為生產銷售 Mono-EG、Di-EG、Tri-EG、氮氣、氧氣、氬氣、液氧與液氮，支援南亞化工與聚酯供應鏈。
  • PFG Fiber Glass Corp. 南亞控制之未上市子公司，年報列示為玻纖相關生產銷售，支援南亞電子材料的玻纖絲、玻纖布及 CCL 垂直整合。
  • 三井化學集團／台灣三井化學 日本上市母集團之在台子公司，與南亞於 2025 年宣布推動生質塑膠產品市場開發；屬低碳與生質材料合作來源，非台股掛牌公司。
Downstream
  • 南亞電路板股份有限公司 8046 南亞控制之上市子公司，生產印刷電路板與 IC 載板；南亞電子材料與南亞電路板在高階伺服器、交換器、AI 與高效能運算晶片應用板材上具垂直整合關係。
  • 南亞科技股份有限公司 2408 南亞重要轉投資公司，主營 DRAM；法說資料指出 2026 年第一季南亞獲利亦受南亞科技權益法投資收益挹注。其非南亞塑膠本體直接下游客戶，但屬台塑企業電子領域關係企業。
  • PCB、IC 載板與高階電子組裝客戶群 公司未公開完整客戶名單；依年報與法說，電子材料下游應用包括銅箔基板、印刷電路板、ABF/IC 載板、AI 伺服器、高速交換器、電信、車用、低軌衛星、風電與海事。
  • 醫療、建材、汽車內裝、紡織服飾與包材客戶群 塑膠加工與聚酯產品下游；包括醫療用血袋與白血球過濾系統、晶圓切割研磨膠帶、汽車內裝膜、塑鋼門窗、工程塑膠、聚酯瓶用/紡織用樹脂與回收聚酯材料。

Competitors

Sources（11）

This company profile is compiled from public sources (annual reports, filings, news and analyst reports), not finlab backtest data; the 2025–2028 outlook contains forward-looking estimates and is for reference only.

Method and limitations

  • All returns use adjusted close (etl:adj_close), already adjusted for dividends and splits.
  • Excess return is measured against the TAIEX total-return index (dividends included).
  • Valuation regime and percentile stats use an expanding own-history window (no future data).
  • Revenue-signal event dates align to the first trading day after the filing deadline, avoiding look-ahead.
  • Event samples may overlap in time; stats describe historical distribution only and are less reliable when samples are few.

This page is historical statistics for educational purposes and is not investment advice. Investing involves risk; past performance does not indicate future results. Assess and bear the risk yourself before trading.